THE LEAD

Friday’s chip selloff put the index proxy 1.53% under its fifty-day average and turned Technology red. Chip stocks are bouncing before the bell, and oil is sliding on Iran talks.

Advanced Micro Devices had the worst day of anyone on our roster on Friday, and it hasn’t even reported yet. The stock fell 10.88% to $504.80 on the same day Intel, which isn’t one of our sixty-seven, dropped more than 28% after a weak outlook, per two outlets. One market wrap ties the whole chip selloff to Intel’s warning. Advanced Micro Devices reports Tuesday, per our feed, so its holders spent the weekend owning a stock that got marked down for somebody else’s numbers.

The rest of the chip trade went with it. Oracle lost 6.37% and the chip fund 6.98%. On Thursday the worry was the spenders, Amazon and Alphabet, whose AI bills had run ahead of their cash; on Friday it reached the suppliers who sell them the gear. We first wrote about who pays for this build-out on October 16, when every chip name on our roster fell together, and two weeks later it’s the same question with a bigger tab.

The index couldn’t shrug it off. The index proxy fell 1.77% and closed 1.53% under its fifty-day average, a line it had only climbed back over on Tuesday, and the Nasdaq proxy lost 3.47%. This week offers plenty of reasons to flip-flop: Apple reports today, the midterms are Tuesday and October payrolls land Friday. Oil is sliding this morning on reports that the two sides in the Iran war are talking, per three outlets.

Underneath, most of our companies held their ground. Thirty-nine of sixty-seven rose, and the money leaving tech went to refiners, drug makers and the grocery aisle; Phillips 66 led at plus 3.37%. A drop that size in a handful of giants still lands on people who never picked them. Anyone holding an index fund through a 401(k) paid for the chip selloff, and so did the engineers whose pay comes partly in chip-company stock, which shrank in a day.

The bulls have a decent argument this morning. Futures are higher, two outlets say the AI selloff is catching its breath, and forty-five of our sixty-seven still sit above their own trend. Health Care, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, Materials and Real Estate are all green. On that reading a few crowded chip stocks gave back a sliver of a huge year, Micron is still up 199.78% since January, and everyone else is fine.

We’d give the bulls the roster and the bears the index. A red market-risk light with the index proxy under its fifty-day is the plainest warning the board gives, and we aren’t going to talk around it. I’ll admit the timing surprised me: that light went red on Thursday’s bar, when most of the headlines were about Amazon’s cloud growth. The roster is where this gets decided, and our test on breadth is still open.

Not one of the seven rose. Advanced Micro Devices fell 10.88%, Oracle 6.37%, Broadcom 5.48%, Micron 5.30% and Nvidia 4.22%, and even Apple and Microsoft slipped more than 1%. The gauge dropped to minus 129.12 from minus 37.38, well under its own average of minus 52.13, and that’s red. The fund lost 4.89% to $179.51, the worst of the eleven, and sits 5.37% under its fifty-day.

Advanced Micro Devices crossed under its trend line, so only Apple and Microsoft still sit above it. Thursday’s yellow had a cushion of 1.78 points, about as thin as they come, and it went the way thin ones usually go.

That also settles Thursday’s test, the gauge back under its own average by Wednesday. It closed 77.01 points under. Oracle’s day was a one-stock pop, not a turn for the sector. The fund is quoted up 0.99% this morning on 12,086 shares, against the new red, so we flag it. Oracle’s holders now need a 51.1% gain to get back to January. Apple reports today and Advanced Micro Devices Tuesday, per our feed.

A second good day for the drug makers. Eli Lilly rose 3.19% and Gilead 3.06%, and AbbVie added 1.41%. The gauge climbed to plus 138.08 from plus 121.09, over its average of plus 108.08, so the green holds with a 30.00-point cushion. The fund gained 0.45% to $184.87 and sits 7.35% above its fifty-day.

Johnson & Johnson, UnitedHealth and Intuitive Surgical slipped, Intuitive the most at 3.73%. All six still sit above trend.

Intuitive Surgical’s holders need a 31.2% gain to get back to January. The fund is flat before the bell.

The card networks held and the banks didn’t. Visa rose 0.74% and Mastercard 0.36%, while Goldman Sachs fell 3.58%, Bank of America 2.21% and JPMorgan 1.90%. The gauge fell to plus 110.69 from plus 142.97, still over its average of plus 57.60, so it’s yellow. The fund lost 0.76% to $56.51 and sits 1.01% above its fifty-day.

JPMorgan crossed back under its trend line, so three of six sit above it: Visa, Mastercard and Berkshire Hathaway.

Bank of America’s holders need a 10.0% gain to get back to January. Berkshire reports Saturday, per our feed. The fund is quoted up 0.50%.

Thursday’s green didn’t make it through Amazon’s report. The gauge fell to plus 79.25 from plus 122.38, under its own average of plus 91.45, and that’s red, two rungs down in one bar. The fund lost 0.71% to $115.38 but still sits 1.89% above its fifty-day.

Amazon fell 1.41% and Starbucks 1.74%, and Tesla slipped 0.87%. Nike, McDonald’s and Home Depot edged up. Five of six still sit above trend; Amazon is the one that doesn’t. The gauge reads the fund, and the fund leans hardest on Amazon and Tesla, which is how a sector with five of six names above trend ends up red.

Nike’s holders need a 65.5% gain to get back to January, McDonald’s 18.3% and Tesla’s 14.5%. McDonald’s reports Wednesday, per our feed. The fund is quoted up 0.64% on only 2,802 shares, too thin to lean on.

The phone companies did the lifting. Verizon rose 2.45% and AT&T 2.34%, while Meta fell 1.53% and Alphabet 1.40%. The gauge rose to minus 166.60 from minus 186.39, still far under its average of minus 125.13, so it’s yellow. The fund lost 1.29% to $99.90 and sits 9.77% under its fifty-day, last of the eleven on the year at minus 15.45%.

Disney is still the only one of six above trend.

Alphabet’s holders need a 13.2% gain to get back to January and Netflix’s 51.6%. The fund is quoted up 0.43%.

Caterpillar kept falling. It lost 3.81% after Thursday’s 9.25% drop, and Honeywell gave up 1.72%. Deere went the other way, up 2.35%, and crossed back above its trend line. The gauge fell to plus 9.81 from plus 74.77, still well over its average of minus 64.62, so it’s yellow. The fund lost 1.60% to $167.40 and sits 1.93% under its fifty-day.

Four of six sit above trend: Deere, UPS, Union Pacific and Honeywell.

Boeing’s holders need a 27.2% gain to get back to January. The fund’s premarket quote is 923 shares, too thin to read.

All six rose, and two of them set records. Exxon gained 2.16% and Chevron 1.75% to record highs, per two outlets, on the day both reported. The refiners did better still: Phillips 66 rose 3.37% and Marathon Petroleum 2.83%. The gauge rose to plus 115.08 from plus 73.46, over its average of plus 100.02, so it’s green. The fund gained 1.91% to $70.02, the best of the eleven, and sits 7.84% above its fifty-day.

All six sit above trend, and the fund is first of eleven on the year at plus 56.57%. Our last Energy green, from October 23, failed its test within a week. This one starts with a cushion of 15.06 points.

This morning cuts the other way. Oil is sliding on talk of a deal to end the Iran war, per three outlets, the crude fund is quoted down 3.66%, and the Energy fund down 0.99% on 166,085 shares, against its new green, so we flag it. Marathon Petroleum reports Tuesday and ConocoPhillips and EOG Thursday, per our feed.

The soap beat the silicon again. On October 23 we led with Procter & Gamble outrunning the chip makers, and it held for a day. On Friday Procter & Gamble rose 0.61% while the chip fund fell 6.98%. All six names gained: PepsiCo 2.65%, Walmart 1.86%, Costco 1.63% and Coca-Cola 1.36% led.

The gauge rose to plus 106.29 from plus 65.88, over its average of plus 94.63, so it’s green. The fund gained 1.41% to $89.42 and sits 5.69% above its fifty-day. All six sit above trend.

PepsiCo’s holders need a 4.3% gain to get back to January. The fund is flat before the bell.

The power companies kept their green. NextEra rose 1.91%, Duke 1.18%, Southern 0.77% and American Electric Power 0.67%, while the merchant generators slipped, Vistra 1.83% and NRG 1.52%. The gauge rose to plus 156.36 from plus 136.40, well over its average of plus 85.85. The fund gained 0.67% to $43.43 and sits 4.02% above its fifty-day.

Four of six sit above trend. The ten-year yield fell 4 basis points to 4.94%, which helps here.

NRG’s holders need a 68.2% gain to get back to January and Vistra’s 18.4%. Duke and Southern report Thursday and Vistra Friday, per our feed. The fund is quoted up 0.25%.

The miners fell and the chemical makers carried the fund. Freeport-McMoRan lost 5.55% and Newmont 4.64% as gold’s fund fell 3.47% and the copper fund 1.86%. Linde rose 2.20%, Air Products 1.50%, Sherwin-Williams 0.76% and Ecolab 0.70%. The gauge rose to plus 133.96 from plus 127.54, well over its average of plus 67.93. The fund gained 0.40% to $52.74 and sits 3.43% above its fifty-day.

Four of six sit above trend; the two miners don’t.

Air Products reports Thursday, per our feed. The fund’s premarket quote is too thin to read.

Public Storage rose 2.43%, American Tower 1.02% and Simon Property 0.94%, while Equinix fell 2.22% and crossed under its trend line. The gauge rose to plus 146.65 from plus 122.67, far over its average of plus 42.83. The fund gained 0.26% to $43.17 and sits 1.22% above its fifty-day.

Four of six sit above trend. Equinix, the data-center landlord of the group, fell on the same day as the chip makers.

Iron Mountain and Simon Property report Thursday, per our feed. The fund shows no premarket trade.

ROTATION

Leaders and laggards in the roster. Micron leads at plus 199.78%, then Marathon Petroleum at plus 173.09%, Advanced Micro Devices at plus 130.61%, Phillips 66 at plus 119.25% and ConocoPhillips at plus 64.54%. The bottom three are NRG at minus 40.55%, Nike at minus 39.58% and Netflix at minus 34.05%. Micron’s lead over Marathon Petroleum shrank to 26.7 points from 51.0 in one session, as the chip maker fell and the refiner rose.

Above and below the fifty-day. Forty-five of the sixty-seven companies close above their own fifty-day average, down from forty-seven. Deere crossed up; Advanced Micro Devices, Equinix and JPMorgan crossed down. By sector: Energy six of six, Health Care six of six, Consumer Staples six of six, Consumer Discretionary five of six, Materials four of six, Industrials four of six, Real Estate four of six, Utilities four of six, Financials three of six, Technology two of seven, Communication Services one of six. Eight of the eleven sector funds close above their own fifty-day, the same eight as Thursday; Technology, Communication Services and Industrials sit under. The index proxy closes 1.53% under its own, from 0.23% above.

Relative strength callouts. Micron beats its own sector fund by 177 points on the year and Advanced Micro Devices by 107, while Oracle trails it by 57. Marathon Petroleum beats Energy by 117 points and Phillips 66 by 63. Deere beats Industrials by 37 points and Iron Mountain beats Real Estate by 33. The worst relative performers against their own sectors are Oracle at minus 57, Intuitive Surgical at minus 43, NRG at minus 42 and Nike at minus 36.

One line on the consensus. The easy headline this morning is that the AI selloff is catching its breath, and the premarket quotes agree. Our count adds that the index proxy closed under its fifty-day on Friday and the market-risk light stayed red, while most of the roster never sold off at all.

EARNINGS CALENDAR

Thirteen roster names fall inside the next seven calendar days, from Apple today through Berkshire Hathaway on Saturday. Apple’s date comes from our feed, and two outlets preview its report this week. The rest of the dates come from our feed only, and we don’t assert before-the-bell or after-the-bell timing for any of them.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Friday’s wage-cost index rose 0.8% for the quarter, per two outlets. For Friday’s payrolls report, our feed showed a forecast of 40,000 jobs last week and one outlet now has 65,000, with both at 4.2% unemployment; we’ll print the number when it lands. Clocks fell back on Sunday, so the times above are Eastern Standard Time.

LEADERS AND LAGGARDS

Every figure is measured from the January 2 opening price, for every company and every fund. The index proxy sits at plus 10.21% on the same basis, down from plus 12.20% on Thursday.

Oracle’s holders took the worst of Friday among the laggards: they now need a 51.1% gain to get back to January, up from 41.5%. NRG’s need grew to 68.2% from 65.6%, and it passed Nike for last place, where the need is 65.5%. Netflix’s is 51.6%. At the top, Advanced Micro Devices is still up 130.61% on the year after its worst day, which says something about the year. None of these is a recommendation and none is a forecast.

FINAL WORD

The board starts the week with six green, three yellow and two red, under a red market-risk light. Seven lights changed on Friday’s bar, and the two that went red were Technology and Consumer Discretionary, the homes of the chip makers and of Amazon.

About this morning’s bounce. The chip fund is quoted up 1.32% and the index proxy up 0.51%, and none of that touches a light. We read every gauge off completed daily bars because a premarket quote is a few thousand or a few hundred thousand shares trading before most of the market shows up, and it can vanish by ten o’clock. A closing price is the whole day’s vote. If the bounce is real, it’ll be in today’s bar, and we’ll read it tomorrow.

Our open test, set Friday: if fewer than forty of our sixty-seven companies close above their own fifty-day average on any completed session through Thursday, November 5, Thursday’s breadth was a hiding place and not a broadening, and we’ll say so here. Friday’s count was forty-five, down two, with four sessions left. Advanced Micro Devices against the Technology fund is one ratio chart in the Sector Risk tab on the Golden Terminal.

Thirteen roster names report inside the next seven calendar days, from Apple today through Berkshire Hathaway on Saturday. Our desk keeps a separate counter on these names ahead of each print, and nothing in it has fired for this group.

FOR THE PROS

Every figure in this issue, checked against the market data it came from. Prices are Friday’s completed daily bars, Treasury yields come from the Treasury’s own daily curve, and where two sources disagree we show both and say which one the body follows.

The Daily Update is published by Golden Cycles Research for informational and educational purposes only. It isn’t personalized advice and it isn’t a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Figures come from third-party data providers and government releases and can be revised. Past performance doesn’t predict future results.

The Daily Update · Golden Terminal · Vol. III, No. 228 · Monday, November 2, 2026