Sector Cycle Radar

Nike Beat On Earnings. The Stock Is Down 10% This Morning.

Oct 2, 2026

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31 min read

Nike Beat On Earnings. The Stock Is Down 10% This Morning.

The company also missed on sales, named a restructuring it calls Pace and cut its outlook for the year. One session earlier we called a beat rejected and watched that stock close up three percent.

The trail wound higher into thin, crystalline air, each switchback revealing another impossible vista of jagged peaks and turquoise water below. Frost clung to the ridgelines as the group pressed on, chasing the last light before it slipped behind the summit.

Brad Hoppmann

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The Two Safe Sectors Lost Their Green Lights In One Day

Industrials and Utilities took the greens instead. That's the result this letter published yesterday as the one that would prove its own read wrong.

Brad Hoppmann

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Sep 30, 2026

Only Two Green Lights Are Left, And Both Are Defensive

Consumer Staples rose two steps to green and Consumer Discretionary fell two steps to red in the same Monday session, while the ten-year finished a 28-basis-point run in four days and the long bond printed a new low.

Brad Hoppmann

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Sep 29, 2026

The Best Sector Of The Year Just Had Its Worst Day.

Energy's reading fell 53 points in one session and the light went red. Monday morning it's the only sector bid.

Brad Hoppmann

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Sep 28, 2026

We provide analysis on the S&P Sectors and provide actionable insight into how current cycles are affecting each sector and predict what the future of the sector results will be.

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The Index Did Nothing Thursday. Money Still Moved...

Sep 25, 2026

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33 min read

The Index Did Nothing Thursday. Money Still Moved...

Six of eleven sector lights changed color on a day the S&P 500 fell eight hundredths of one percent. Three went up, three went down, and the thirty-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2004.

Brad Hoppmann

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The 10-Year Treasury Yield Just Hit Its Highest Level Since 2007.

Sep 24, 2026

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38 min read

The 10-Year Treasury Yield Just Hit Its Highest Level Since 2007.

A growth report nobody expected sent the bond market to its worst day in about a year and a half. Five lights on this board changed color for the worse, and energy was the only sector that closed green.

Brad Hoppmann

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The 30-Year Mortgage Rate Just Crossed 7%.

Sep 23, 2026

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39 min read

The 30-Year Mortgage Rate Just Crossed 7%.

Health Care turned green and three red lights turned yellow on a day the S&P 500 closed flat. The one light that broke was the banks, which is the call this letter made yesterday and got wrong by the close.

Brad Hoppmann

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The Market Set A Record Monday. Thirty Of Its Own Stocks Hit One-Year Lows.

Sep 22, 2026

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40 min read

The Market Set A Record Monday. Thirty Of Its Own Stocks Hit One-Year Lows.

Four of this letter's eleven sector lights turned green in one session, and the gauge it keeps on the market itself went from red back to green. The last time stocks did what they did Monday, the date was December 1999.

Brad Hoppmann

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The S&P Barely Moved On Friday. Underneath, Five Sectors Turned Red.

Sep 21, 2026

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39 min read

The S&P Barely Moved On Friday. Underneath, Five Sectors Turned Red.

The ten-year yield gave back Thursday's whole rally in a single session, and the light this letter keeps on the market itself went from green to red. This morning the premarket is trying to buy it all back.

Brad Hoppmann

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Stocks Took Back The Rate Hike In One Day. Housing Got The Bill.

Sep 18, 2026

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46 min read

Stocks Took Back The Rate Hike In One Day. Housing Got The Bill.

Every Treasury yield fell and the chipmakers led all eleven sectors higher. The thirty-year mortgage rate jumped to 6.95%.

Brad Hoppmann

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The Fed Raised Rates. Oil And Bank Stocks Paid The Bill.

Sep 17, 2026

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45 min read

The Fed Raised Rates. Oil And Bank Stocks Paid The Bill.

The first increase in three years came with projections showing half a point more on each of the next three years. Energy producers and banks took the losses, and the board lost its last green light.

Brad Hoppmann

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Energy Stocks Were The Only Winners Tuesday.

Sep 16, 2026

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43 min read

Energy Stocks Were The Only Winners Tuesday.

All six energy names on this roster rose while the rest of the board fell, and energy now holds the only green momentum light. The ten-year Treasury closed at 5% for the first time since 2007, hours before the Federal Reserve decides.

Brad Hoppmann

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Ten Weeks of Building. Here Is All of It.

Sep 16, 2026

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2 min read

Ten Weeks of Building. Here Is All of It.

Six drawing tools, six studies, volume profile, ratio charts and 43 brokerages, all live on the Golden Terminal now.

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The Market Dumped Everything That Builds AI.

Sep 15, 2026

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41 min read

The Market Dumped Everything That Builds AI.

Chipmakers, power producers and data-center landlords fell together while Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft rose. Seven of eleven sector lights are now red, and the ten-year Treasury yield is at its highest since 2007.

Brad Hoppmann

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Stocks Rallied On Friday. Overnight, The Chip Stocks Sold Off Again.

Sep 14, 2026

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36 min read

Stocks Rallied On Friday. Overnight, The Chip Stocks Sold Off Again.

Friday's rally took the momentum board from zero green lights to two and pulled the market-risk light off red for the first time in four sessions. Then a weekend call from the AI industry's own leaders to slow development sent chipmakers down more than 5% before the bell, with oil back above $100 and the Fed expected to raise rates Wednesday.

Brad Hoppmann

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The Board Ran Out of Green Lights. Then Gasoline Wrote the Inflation Report.

Sep 12, 2026

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11 min read

The Board Ran Out of Green Lights. Then Gasoline Wrote the Inflation Report.

The momentum board went from two green lights to zero as crude ran better than 11% on the Saudi-facility attacks, and every one of the year's five leading sectors is now red. Then Friday's August inflation report landed, and gasoline wrote most of it.

Brad Hoppmann

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The Market's Last Green Light Just Went Out, Right as the Inflation Report Lands.

Sep 11, 2026

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33 min read

The Market's Last Green Light Just Went Out, Right as the Inflation Report Lands.

Energy, the board's last green light, rolled over Thursday even as crude spiked. The risk light is red for a fourth straight day, and the August CPI lands at 8:30.

Brad Hoppmann

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The Board Has One Green Light Left. It Is the One Feeding the Inflation Scare.

Sep 10, 2026

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32 min read

The Board Has One Green Light Left. It Is the One Feeding the Inflation Scare.

The momentum board fell to a single green light Wednesday, and it belongs to Energy, the one sector riding the oil spike into Thursday's and Friday's inflation reports. The risk light is red for a third straight day, and eight of eleven sectors are red with it.

Brad Hoppmann

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The Oil Shock Landed, and the Market Took Its Second Red Day

Sep 9, 2026

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32 min read

The Oil Shock Landed, and the Market Took Its Second Red Day

A strike on Saudi oil facilities sent crude toward a three-month high, and stocks fell again, with Health Care the worst hit and the banks turning red. Now a spiking barrel is climbing straight into Friday's inflation number, the last major print before the Fed meets.

Brad Hoppmann

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The Jobs Report Ran Too Hot. Now the Market Fears a Hike, Not a Cut.

Sep 8, 2026

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32 min read

The Jobs Report Ran Too Hot. Now the Market Fears a Hike, Not a Cut.

August payrolls tripled the forecast, and a strong labor market read as a reason the Fed could raise rates, not lower them. The risk light flipped back to red, and now oil is spiking days before Friday’s CPI.

Brad Hoppmann

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The Warning Light Finally Turned Green. Now the Jobs Report Gets a Vote.

Sep 4, 2026

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32 min read

The Warning Light Finally Turned Green. Now the Jobs Report Gets a Vote.

Long yields slipped, the dollar fell, and a dovish word from the Fed sent stocks to their best day in a month, and the market-risk gauge finally cleared its line and turned green. But the money came straight out of the year's leaders, with Energy flipping from yesterday's lone green to today's red, hours before the August payrolls print decides whether any of it holds.

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The Bond Market Took a Breather, and the Selling Stopped.

Sep 3, 2026

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29 min read

The Bond Market Took a Breather, and the Selling Stopped.

As the ten-year's climb paused near a multi-decade high, growth stocks bounced and the board healed from six red lights to two. But only Energy is green, and the two hold-outs, Technology and Real Estate, say this was relief, not an all-clear.

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The Bond Market Took the Wheel. Money Fled Growth for Energy and the Safe Aisles.

Sep 2, 2026

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29 min read

The Bond Market Took the Wheel. Money Fled Growth for Energy and the Safe Aisles.

A global bond rout drove the 10-year to a three-year high; growth and cyclicals red, energy green, defensives bid. The board looks less red than Monday, but the risk light deepened.

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Friday's Rally Broadened. Monday the Whole Board Went Red Anyway.

Sep 1, 2026

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28 min read

Friday's Rally Broadened. Monday the Whole Board Went Red Anyway.

One session after the market’s leadership finally spread out, the momentum board flushed to ten red sectors and one survivor: energy, bid on a fresh oil shock. The index barely fell and fear actually eased, so this was a quiet step back from risk, not a crash, with a September rate hike now near a coin flip.

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