Sector Cycle Radar

Walmart Beat on Everything. The Market Sold It Anyway.

Deere beat big too, but a beat is no longer enough. The one thing the crowd actually chased Wednesday was Merck's cancer-vaccine breakthrough, even as the risk light finally lifted off red to neutral. A tape carrying long yields near a 19-year high has stopped paying for good results and started demanding great ones, and Walmart just found out what that costs.

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Aug 20, 2026

The Selling Did Not Stop on Tuesday. It Just Rotated Into Safety.

Stocks fell a third straight day as long Treasury yields held near a 19-year high, but Tuesday's board looked nothing like Monday's panic. Instead of selling everything, the crowd dumped the chips, the AI names and the cyclicals and bought defensives, flipping Health Care, Consumer Staples and Utilities to green and pushing Energy's momentum to the top of the board. The green count rose from one to four, yet the market-risk gauge stayed red the whole time, because those greens are hiding places, not a recovery. Lowe's beat on earnings before Wednesday's open but trimmed its outlook, the mixed mirror of Home Depot's clean beat a day earlier.

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Aug 19, 2026

The Bond Market Took Over. The 30-Year Yield Just Hit a High Not Seen Since 2007.

Long Treasury yields jumped to levels last seen before the financial crisis as oil climbed on the Iran standoff and the government's debt pile drew fresh worry, a global bond rout that reset the discount rate under every long-duration stock. Monday's board caved with it: the defensive corners that held Friday's green count all folded, leaving Energy as the only green light on an eleven-sector board and the market-risk gauge red for a second day. Home Depot beat before Tuesday's open and reaffirmed its outlook, a good quarter that could not lift a tape the bond market had already turned.

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Aug 18, 2026

The Market's Risk Light Broke to Red, Even With Five Sectors Still Green.

Friday's soft retail sales and jobs data pushed the odds of a Fed rate hike further off and knocked the dollar to a ten-week low, which should have been risk-on. Instead the broad momentum gauge we read off the S&P broke below its trend for the first time in this move, buyers dumped the tech winners from Broadcom to Oracle and hid in energy and the defensive corners, and the board kept its five green lights only by trading health care and financials for oil. A tape that sells its leaders and buys its laggards, stock by stock rather than sector by sector.

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Aug 17, 2026

We provide analysis on the S&P Sectors and provide actionable insight into how current cycles are affecting each sector and predict what the future of the sector results will be.