THE LEAD

Microsoft rose on the same night’s report, and Oracle’s 10.73% jump turned Technology green on Wednesday. The Fed held with two votes for a hike, and Energy turned red.

Alphabet and Microsoft both told Wall Street the same thing after Wednesday’s close: we’re spending more on AI, and we’re not slowing down. The market bought it from one and not the other. Alphabet’s earnings fell short of forecasts on $127.6 billion of revenue, per one outlet and our feed, and the same outlet says its cash went out faster than it came in for a second straight quarter, a negative $9.1 billion. Microsoft earned $4.89 a share against $4.72 expected. By 7:05 this morning Alphabet was quoted down 10.41% on 2.86 million shares and Microsoft up 2.10%.

That’s a turn from Wednesday’s session, when the AI spenders were the winners. Oracle rose 10.73% to $144.54 after an investor day where, per two outlets, it set a goal of at least $225 billion of revenue in fiscal 2030; one outlet says it also capped new funding at $20 billion, which answers the debt question that’s dogged the stock. Micron rose 5.86%, Advanced Micro Devices 3.24% and Broadcom 2.77%, and the chip fund gained 1.74%. That was enough to turn the Technology gauge green, at minus 18.47 against its own average of minus 32.06. Oracle and Micron both crossed back above their fifty-day averages.

The market has three reasons to be jumpy this morning. The Fed held at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, but two officials voted to raise, per two outlets, and the ten-year yield closed at 5.05%, up 6 basis points. Energy went red even as the Energy fund rose 0.35%, because the gauge measures momentum and the momentum ran out. And this morning’s 8:30 reports, third-quarter growth and September’s spending-price index, are forecast at 3.2% and 3.6%, per our feed.

Alphabet’s drop doesn’t stay with the people who picked the stock. It’s one of the biggest weights in the S&P 500, so every index fund in a retirement plan carries its share of a 10% morning. And one outlet reports Alphabet raised $12.4 billion by selling new shares in the quarter, with no buybacks. When a company sells new shares to pay for building, the people who already own it hold a smaller slice of whatever that building eventually earns.

Before our conclusion, the strongest case for the bears. One of the country’s biggest AI spenders just showed a quarter where the cash ran negative again and earnings came up short, and its stock is down 10% before the bell. Two Fed officials want higher rates now, and the ten-year is back above 5%. Thirty-five of our sixty-seven companies fell on Wednesday even with the index up. On that reading, Oracle’s jump was a relief rally in a trade that’s starting to get the bill.

We think the bears are right about Alphabet and wrong about the market. The market sorted the AI spenders, Microsoft up and Alphabet down on the same night, and kept buying the rest of the roster. Forty-five of sixty-seven sit above their fifty-day average, eight of eleven sector funds sit above their own, up from six, and the index proxy closed 0.61% above its line for a second straight day. The market-risk gauge rose to plus 13.75, still 7.63 points under its own average of plus 21.38, so it’s still yellow. We’d want it over that average before calling this more than a market holding its ground.

Oracle did most of the work. It rose 10.73% to $144.54 after an investor day where, per two outlets, it set a goal of at least $225 billion of revenue in fiscal 2030. The Technology fund gained 0.80% to $191.00 and closed 0.71% above its fifty-day. The gauge rose to minus 18.47 from minus 40.17, above its own average of minus 32.06, and that’s green.

Micron rose 5.86%, Advanced Micro Devices 3.24% and Broadcom 2.77%, while Microsoft was flat ahead of its report and Apple and Nvidia slipped about 1%. Oracle and Micron crossed back above their fifty-day, so five of seven now sit above trend; Broadcom and Nvidia are the holdouts.

It’s a thin green. The cushion over the gauge’s own average is 13.59 points, and thin greens are the ones that flip; more on that in the Final Word. Oracle’s holders still need a 36.6% gain to get back to January. The fund is quoted down 1.09% this morning on real size, against its new green, so we flag it. Apple reports Monday and Advanced Micro Devices Tuesday, per our feed.

A second red, and a quiet one. The fund gained 0.30% to $179.72 and sits 4.61% above its fifty-day, but the gauge slipped to plus 75.84 from plus 78.77, further under its own average of plus 85.06. Momentum is fading in a sector whose stocks are mostly fine.

Johnson & Johnson rose 0.86%, Eli Lilly 0.50% and Gilead 0.08%. AbbVie, Intuitive Surgical and UnitedHealth slipped. All six still sit above trend.

Eli Lilly reported this morning: $7.48 a share on $24.40 billion of revenue, far ahead of forecasts, per its numbers in our feed and one outlet, which also has it raising its full-year sales outlook. It’s quoted up 3.04% on 80,544 shares. The fund is quoted up 1.84% against its red, but on 9,443 shares, too thin to count. Intuitive Surgical’s holders need a 27.6% gain to get back to January. Gilead reports today and AbbVie Friday, per our feed.

The fund crossed back above its fifty-day. It gained 0.45% to $56.13, 0.29% over the line. The gauge barely moved, plus 87.07 from plus 87.28, and it’s far above its average of plus 32.57, so it’s yellow.

Goldman Sachs rose 1.47%, JPMorgan 1.05% and Bank of America 0.34%, with Mastercard flat ahead of its report. Visa slipped 0.31% the day after its beat and Berkshire 0.49%. Mastercard, Visa and Berkshire sit above trend; the three banks don’t yet.

Bank of America’s holders need an 8.2% gain to get back to January. Mastercard reports today, per our feed. The fund is quoted up 1.14% this morning on modest size.

Monday’s green lasted two sessions. The gauge eased to plus 100.66 from plus 107.02, still well above its average of plus 72.17, so it’s yellow. The fund slipped 0.10% to $115.33 and sits 1.78% above its fifty-day.

Amazon rose 0.59% ahead of its report, McDonald’s 0.41% and Starbucks 0.16%. Home Depot, Tesla and Nike slipped. Five of six sit above trend; Amazon still doesn’t.

Nike’s holders need a 72.3% gain to get back to January and McDonald’s 21.9%. Amazon and Starbucks report today and McDonald’s next Wednesday, per our feed. Amazon is quoted down 1.14% this morning. The fund shows no premarket trade.

Still the weakest gauge on the board, though it’s climbing. It rose to minus 179.77 from minus 219.20, far under its average of minus 119.71. The fund lost 0.42% to $103.14, sits 7.19% under its fifty-day and is last on the year at minus 12.71%.

Alphabet rose 1.34% into its report. Netflix fell 0.85%, Disney 1.08%, AT&T 1.15%, Meta 1.24% and Verizon 1.71%. Disney is still the only one of six above trend.

Then came Alphabet’s report, and it’s quoted down 10.41% on 2.86 million shares. If that holds at the bell, this sector’s next green gets pushed further off. Netflix’s holders need a 51.8% gain to get back to January and AT&T’s 19.8%. The fund shows no premarket trade.

Tuesday’s green held. The gauge climbed to plus 24.70 from minus 14.70, far above its own average of minus 74.86, so it’s still green. The fund gained 0.34% to $168.49 but sits 1.57% under its fifty-day.

A flat day underneath. Honeywell rose 0.21%, Deere 0.17% and Caterpillar 0.01%. UPS, Boeing and Union Pacific slipped. UPS, Union Pacific and Honeywell hold above trend; Boeing, Caterpillar and Deere don’t.

Caterpillar reported this morning, $7.20 a share by Reuters and our feed, and it’s quoted down 9.59% on 173,652 shares. Our feed has revenue a hair under forecasts, and we haven’t found a source that explains the drop, so we won’t guess. Boeing’s holders need a 30.5% gain to get back to January. The fund shows no premarket trade.

This is the light our test was waiting on. The gauge fell to plus 72.73 from plus 82.59, under its own average of plus 84.38, and that’s red. The fund rose 0.35% to $68.45, and our crude fund 1.64%, so the price went up and the momentum still faded. The gauge is built to catch that. The fund is still 5.79% above its fifty-day and first on the year at plus 53.06%.

Phillips 66 rose 1.95%, Exxon 1.17%, Marathon Petroleum 1.10%, ConocoPhillips 0.74% and Chevron 0.43%. EOG slipped 0.11%. All six sit above trend.

Two outlets tie this morning’s oil dip to renewed U.S.-Iran peace efforts. The fund is quoted up 0.91% on 419,245 shares, against its red, so we flag it. Exxon and Chevron report Friday, Marathon Petroleum Tuesday and ConocoPhillips and EOG next Thursday, per our feed.

A second red. The gauge fell to plus 41.22 from plus 58.28, well under its average of plus 69.99. The fund lost 0.36% to $86.84 and still sits 2.78% above its fifty-day.

Coca-Cola rose 0.60% and Philip Morris was flat. Walmart, Procter & Gamble, PepsiCo and Costco slipped. Five of six sit above trend; PepsiCo doesn’t.

PepsiCo’s holders need an 8.0% gain to get back to January. The fund shows no premarket trade.

Tuesday’s green lasted one session. The fund lost 0.84% to $42.49, the worst on the board, and the gauge eased to plus 101.14 from plus 115.70. It’s still far above its average of plus 63.68, so it’s yellow. The fund sits 1.71% above its fifty-day.

Vistra fell 2.69%, NextEra 1.70%, American Electric Power 1.61%, Southern 1.22% and Duke 0.99%. NRG rose 1.78%. Vistra crossed back under its fifty-day, so four of six sit above trend.

Higher bond yields tend to weigh on these stocks, and the ten-year rose 6 basis points on the day. NRG’s holders need a 66.6% gain to get back to January and Vistra’s 14.8%. Southern and Duke report next Thursday, per our feed. The fund is quoted up 0.96% this morning.

A quiet day. The fund gained 0.15% to $51.86, and the gauge eased to plus 99.52 from plus 107.90, still far above its average of plus 41.27, so it’s yellow. The fund sits 1.72% above its fifty-day.

Newmont rose 1.14% and Freeport-McMoRan 0.99%, with Ecolab and Air Products up a little. Linde slipped 0.10% and Sherwin-Williams fell 1.60%. Three of six hold above trend.

Linde reported this morning: $4.59 a share against $4.52 expected, from our feed only so far. It’s quoted down 1.04%. Air Products reports next Thursday, per our feed. Sherwin-Williams’ holders need a 0.8% gain to get back to January. The fund is flat this morning on thin trade.

The gauge fell hard again, to plus 37.41 from plus 86.91, but it’s still above its own average of plus 15.98, so it’s yellow. The fund lost 0.73% to $42.13 and sits 1.40% under its fifty-day.

Equinix rose 0.83% into its report and Iron Mountain 0.29%. Prologis fell 0.99%, Public Storage 0.77% and Simon Property 0.49%. Four of six sit above trend.

Our feed has Equinix at $4.93 a share against $4.11 expected, one source so far, and its premarket quote is too thin to read. Iron Mountain and Simon Property report next Thursday, per our feed. Prologis’s holders need a 2.0% gain to get back to January. The fund shows no premarket trade.

ROTATION

Leaders and laggards in the roster. Micron leads at plus 233.16%, then Marathon Petroleum at plus 170.66%, Advanced Micro Devices at plus 164.25%, Phillips 66 at plus 112.22% and ConocoPhillips at plus 59.24%. The bottom three are Nike at minus 41.95%, NRG at minus 39.99% and Netflix at minus 34.14%. Oracle left the bottom three on its 10.73% day and now sits at minus 26.80%. Micron’s lead over Marathon Petroleum widened to 62.5 points from 47.0.

Above and below the fifty-day. Forty-five of the sixty-seven companies close above their own fifty-day average, up from forty-four. Two crossed up, Micron and Oracle, and one crossed down, Vistra. By sector: Energy six of six, Health Care six of six, Technology five of seven, Consumer Staples five of six, Consumer Discretionary five of six, Utilities four of six, Real Estate four of six, Financials three of six, Industrials three of six, Materials three of six, Communication Services one of six. Eight of the eleven sector funds close above their own fifty-day, up from six, as Technology and Financials crossed back over. Communication Services, Industrials and Real Estate sit under. The index proxy closes 0.61% above its own, from 0.28%.

Relative strength callouts. Micron beats its own sector fund by 202 points on the year and Advanced Micro Devices by 133, while Oracle trails it by 58, from 64. Marathon Petroleum beats Energy by 118 points and Phillips 66 by 59. Iron Mountain beats Real Estate by 35 points. The worst relative performers against their own sectors are Oracle at minus 58, NRG at minus 39, and Nike and Intuitive Surgical at minus 38 each. Boeing trails Industrials by 32.

One line on the consensus. The easy headline this morning is that Alphabet’s AI bill scared Wall Street. That’s true and it’s in the premarket quotes. Our count adds that Microsoft rose on the same night, that Oracle’s jump turned Technology green on Wednesday, and that eight of eleven sector funds now sit above their own trend line.

EARNINGS CALENDAR

Fourteen roster names fall inside the next seven calendar days, Thursday through next Wednesday, plus Alphabet, Microsoft and Equinix, which reported after Wednesday’s close. Alphabet’s and Microsoft’s results agree across an outlet’s report and our feed; Caterpillar’s earnings agree across Reuters and our feed, and Eli Lilly’s across one outlet and our feed. Equinix’s and Linde’s results come from our feed only so far. The rest of the dates come from our feed only, and we don’t assert before-the-bell or after-the-bell timing for any of them.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

This morning’s growth number is forecast at 3.2%, after 2.2% in the second quarter, and September’s spending-price index at 3.6% on the year, with the core reading at 3.1%. Wednesday’s goods trade deficit came in at $134.9 billion against $130 billion expected, and the weekly government count showed crude stocks down 1.9 million barrels and gasoline stocks up 3.9 million. The Mortgage Bankers’ thirty-year rate was 7.37%. Dates, times, forecasts and Wednesday’s readings come from our economic calendar feed.

LEADERS AND LAGGARDS

Every figure is measured from the January 2 opening price, for every company and every fund. The index proxy sits at plus 12.63% on the same basis, up from plus 12.24% on Tuesday.

Nike slipped 1.09%, and its holders now need a 72.3% gain to get back to January. NRG’s need is 66.6% and Netflix’s 51.8%. Oracle’s 10.73% day cut its holders’ climb from 51.3% to 36.6%, which shows how much one session can do and how much is left. At the top, Micron pulled 62.5 points clear of Marathon Petroleum. None of these is a recommendation and none is a forecast.

FINAL WORD

The board starts Thursday with two green, six yellow and three red. Four lights changed, and the one that went red, Energy, did it on a day its fund rose. Alphabet’s 10% premarket drop and Microsoft’s gain will test the new Technology green at the open, and the 8:30 growth and inflation numbers will test everything else.

A word on what a thin green means. Each sector’s gauge has its own recent average, and the gap between the two is the cushion. Technology’s cushion is 13.59 points, the smallest of our two greens. A small cushion means one ordinary down day can flip the light, so we treat it as a lean, not a conviction, until the gap widens.

The new test: if the Technology gauge closes back under its own average on any completed session through Wednesday, November 4, Oracle’s day was a one-stock pop and not a turn for the sector, and we’ll say so here in those words. Wednesday’s test, the index proxy back under its fifty-day by Friday, hasn’t fired; it sits 0.61% above. Alphabet against the Technology fund is one ratio chart in the Sector Risk tab on the Golden Terminal.

Fourteen roster names report inside the next seven calendar days, from Amazon, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, Linde, Gilead, Mastercard and Starbucks today through McDonald’s next Wednesday. Our desk keeps a separate counter on these names ahead of each print, and nothing in it has fired for this group.

FOR THE PROS

Every figure in this issue, checked against the market data it came from. Prices are Wednesday’s completed daily bars, Treasury yields come from the Treasury’s own daily curve, and where two sources disagree we show both and say which one the body follows.

The Daily Update is published by Golden Cycles Research for informational and educational purposes only. It isn’t personalized advice and it isn’t a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Figures come from third-party data providers and government releases and can be revised. Past performance doesn’t predict future results.

The Daily Update · Golden Terminal · Vol. III, No. 225 · Thursday, October 29, 2026