THE LEAD

Alphabet’s 12.64% drop pulled the index lower on Thursday, but 51 of our 67 companies rose and seven sectors turned green. The market-risk light went red.

Amazon told Wall Street on Thursday night that its cloud business is growing faster than it has in years, 39% by several outlets’ count, and that it isn’t slowing down its spending. The market heard the second part. Earnings came in at $1.89 a share against $1.97 expected, per our feed, and two outlets report that the cash going out to build AI capacity now exceeds the cash coming in. One of them puts the twelve-month free cash flow at negative $42.4 billion. By 7:04 this morning Amazon was quoted down 6.03% on 1.15 million shares.

It’s the second giant in two days to get that answer. Alphabet fell 12.64% on Thursday after its report, which two outlets tie to slower search sales, and one outlet now counts its free cash flow at negative $9.1 billion too. Amazon fell 4.25% during the session before its own report, Micron 4.98% and Oracle 3.45%. After the close Intel, which isn’t one of our sixty-seven, gave a weak outlook, per two outlets, and the chip fund is quoted down 5.03% this morning. Advanced Micro Devices is down 9.12% and Micron 6.07%.

Underneath, almost everything else rose. Fifty-one of our sixty-seven companies gained on Thursday, forty-seven now sit above their fifty-day average, and seven of eleven sectors turned green, led by Health Care, where Eli Lilly jumped 6.63% on its beat. The small-company proxy rose 0.97% while the index proxy lost 0.38%. Third-quarter growth came in at 3.4%, ahead of the 3.2% forecast, per two outlets and our feed, and the ten-year yield fell 7 basis points to 4.98%.

The market-risk gauge doesn’t count companies. It reads the index itself, and the index leans on a handful of giants. So it went red on a day when most stocks rose. Anyone who owns the whole market through an index fund lost money Thursday, because the few names carrying the most weight are the same names now showing what their AI bill costs. A retirement account full of index funds doesn’t get a vote on that; it just holds the weight.

Before our conclusion, the strongest case for the bears. The two biggest spenders to report this week both showed cash running negative, and the chip stocks that sell them the gear are down 5% before the bell. Thursday’s leaders were Health Care up 2.40%, Real Estate 2.21%, Consumer Staples 1.54% and Utilities 1.53%. Those are where money hides. On that reading the broad green board is a crowd stepping away from the AI trade, and the red market-risk light is the honest number.

We think the bears have the giants right and the rest of the market only half right. Financials, Industrials, Materials and Consumer Discretionary went green too. Forty-seven of sixty-seven above trend is broad. But the market-risk light is still red. The index proxy closed 0.23% above its fifty-day, its thinnest margin since it crossed back over on Tuesday; if it loses that line, the giants are pulling the rest down with them, and we’ll treat this as a falling market and not a rotation.

Wednesday’s green lasted one session. The gauge fell to minus 37.38 from minus 18.47, and it’s now only 1.78 points above its own average of minus 39.16, so it’s yellow by a hair. The fund lost 1.18% to $188.74 and slipped back under its fifty-day.

Micron fell 4.98%, Oracle 3.45%, Advanced Micro Devices 2.08% and Broadcom 1.94%. Apple was the lone gainer, up 1.48%. Micron and Oracle crossed back under trend, so three of seven sit above it: Apple, Microsoft and Advanced Micro Devices.

Thursday’s test, the gauge back under its own average by next Wednesday, hasn’t fired, but 1.78 points is no room at all, and the fund is quoted down 3.46% this morning on real size. Our older test, the gauge back above zero by Thursday, closed without firing, so we never got to call last week’s drop a shakeout. Oracle’s holders need a 41.5% gain to get back to January. Apple reports Monday and Advanced Micro Devices Tuesday, per our feed.

The day’s biggest move on the board. The gauge leapt to plus 121.09 from plus 75.84, over its own average of plus 95.41, and that’s green straight from red. The fund gained 2.40% to $184.04, the best of the eleven, and sits 7.02% above its fifty-day.

Eli Lilly rose 6.63% after Thursday morning’s beat, and Gilead 4.03% after its own report, $2.55 a share against $2.19 expected, per our feed. AbbVie, Johnson & Johnson, Intuitive Surgical and UnitedHealth all rose too. All six sit above trend.

The cushion is 25.68 points, the thinnest of our seven greens. Intuitive Surgical’s holders still need a 26.3% gain to get back to January, even after the day. AbbVie reports today, per our feed. The fund is quoted up 1.56% on 23,822 shares.

The gauge jumped to plus 142.97 from plus 87.07, far over its average of plus 46.48, so it’s green. The fund gained 1.44% to $56.94 and sits 1.76% above its fifty-day.

Mastercard rose 4.16% on its report day, per our feed, and Visa 2.48%. JPMorgan gained 1.26% and crossed back above trend. Bank of America, Berkshire and Goldman Sachs added less than 0.6% each. Four of six now sit above the line; Bank of America and Goldman Sachs don’t.

Bank of America’s holders need a 7.6% gain to get back to January. The fund is quoted up 0.67% this morning.

Everything but Amazon rose. Home Depot gained 3.60%, Nike 3.42%, McDonald’s 2.75% and Starbucks 2.24% on its report day, while Tesla slipped 0.23% and Amazon fell 4.25% ahead of its numbers. The gauge rose to plus 122.38 from plus 100.66, over its average of plus 84.50, so it’s green. The fund gained 0.75% to $116.20 and sits 2.59% above its fifty-day.

Five of six sit above trend. Amazon still doesn’t, and after the close it gave the market a reason to keep it there.

Amazon is quoted down 6.03% this morning, and the fund down 1.32% on 21,921 shares, against its new green, so we flag it. Amazon is the heaviest name in this fund, which is why one report can drag a green sector at the open. Nike’s holders need a 66.6% gain to get back to January and McDonald’s 18.6%. McDonald’s reports Wednesday, per our feed.

One stock did this. Alphabet fell 12.64% to $283.82, and two outlets tie the drop to slower search sales. The gauge fell to minus 186.39 from minus 179.77, far under its average of minus 122.54, and that’s red. The fund lost 1.87% to $101.21, the worst of the eleven, and sits 8.76% under its fifty-day. It’s last on the year at minus 14.34%.

The other five rose: Meta 1.96%, Disney 1.71%, Verizon 1.11%, AT&T 1.06% and Netflix 0.10%. Disney is still the only one above trend.

Alphabet’s holders now need an 11.7% gain to get back to January and Netflix’s 51.7%. The fund shows no premarket trade.

The only light that didn’t change. The gauge rose to plus 74.77 from plus 24.70, far over its own average of minus 65.97. The fund gained 0.97% to $170.13 but still sits 0.47% under its fifty-day, so this green is a bounce until it proves it can last.

Caterpillar fell 9.25% after its report, and one outlet ties the drop to a soft fourth-quarter sales outlook. The other five rose: Boeing 3.30%, Deere 3.02%, UPS 1.62%, Union Pacific 1.39% and Honeywell 1.31%. Three of six sit above trend.

Boeing’s holders need a 26.4% gain to get back to January. The fund’s premarket quote is too thin and too wide to read.

The gauge ticked up to plus 73.46 from plus 72.73, still under its own average of plus 91.79, so it’s yellow. Our crude fund rose 0.97% and the Energy fund 0.38% to $68.71. The fund is 6.03% above its fifty-day and first on the year at plus 53.64%.

Chevron rose 0.99%, EOG 0.81%, Exxon 0.70% and ConocoPhillips 0.65%. Phillips 66 was flat and Marathon Petroleum slipped 1.87%. All six sit above trend.

Exxon earned $4.23 a share against $4.12 expected and Chevron $5.28 against $4.87, per our feed; one outlet has Exxon’s quarterly profit at $15.4 billion. Exxon is quoted up 1.94% and Chevron 1.49%, and the fund up 1.43%. Marathon Petroleum reports Tuesday and ConocoPhillips and EOG Thursday, per our feed.

The gauge climbed to plus 65.88 from plus 41.22, still under its average of plus 81.88, so it’s yellow. The fund gained 1.54% to $88.18 and sits 4.32% above its fifty-day.

Philip Morris rose 2.89%, Walmart 2.09%, Procter & Gamble 1.47%, Costco 1.36%, Coca-Cola 1.19% and PepsiCo 0.87%. PepsiCo crossed back above trend, so all six sit above it.

PepsiCo’s holders need a 7.0% gain to get back to January. The fund is quoted up 2.02% this morning on a wide spread.

Wednesday’s yellow lasted one session. The gauge rose to plus 136.40 from plus 101.14, well over its average of plus 74.97. The fund gained 1.53% to $43.14 and sits 3.31% above its fifty-day.

Duke rose 1.89%, Southern 1.61%, NextEra 1.38%, American Electric Power 0.89% and NRG 0.59%. Vistra slipped 1.24%. Four of six sit above trend.

The ten-year yield fell 7 basis points on the day, which tends to help these stocks. NRG’s holders need a 65.6% gain to get back to January and Vistra’s 16.3%. Southern and Duke report Thursday, per our feed. The fund is quoted up 0.79%.

The gauge rose to plus 127.54 from plus 99.52, well over its average of plus 55.97, so it’s green. The fund gained 1.29% to $52.53 and sits 3.03% above its fifty-day.

Sherwin-Williams rose 2.90% and crossed back above trend, Ecolab 2.89% and Air Products 1.48%. Linde slipped 0.99% after its report, and Freeport-McMoRan and Newmont fell. Four of six sit above trend.

Air Products reports Thursday, per our feed. Sherwin-Williams’ holders are back above January, at plus 2.12% on the year. The fund shows no premarket trade.

The gauge jumped to plus 122.67 from plus 37.41, well over its own average of plus 29.79, so it’s green. The fund gained 2.21% to $43.06 and crossed back above its fifty-day by 0.87%.

All six rose. Equinix gained 2.88% after its report and crossed back above trend, Iron Mountain 2.34%, Public Storage 2.26%, Prologis 2.24%, Simon Property 2.12% and American Tower 1.16%. Five of six sit above the line; Prologis doesn’t yet.

Falling yields help here too. Iron Mountain and Simon Property report Thursday, per our feed. Prologis’s holders are back above January, at plus 0.22%. The fund is quoted up 0.53% on thin trade.

ROTATION

Leaders and laggards in the roster. Micron leads at plus 216.57%, then Marathon Petroleum at plus 165.59%, Advanced Micro Devices at plus 158.76%, Phillips 66 at plus 112.10% and ConocoPhillips at plus 60.27%. The bottom three are Nike at minus 39.97%, NRG at minus 39.63% and Netflix at minus 34.08%. Micron’s lead over Marathon Petroleum narrowed to 51.0 points from 62.5 after its 4.98% drop.

Above and below the fifty-day. Forty-seven of the sixty-seven companies close above their own fifty-day average, up from forty-five. Four crossed up, Equinix, JPMorgan, PepsiCo and Sherwin-Williams, and two crossed down, Micron and Oracle. By sector: Energy six of six, Health Care six of six, Consumer Staples six of six, Real Estate five of six, Consumer Discretionary five of six, Financials four of six, Utilities four of six, Materials four of six, Technology three of seven, Industrials three of six, Communication Services one of six. Eight of the eleven sector funds close above their own fifty-day, the same count as Wednesday, as Real Estate crossed up and Technology crossed down. Technology, Communication Services and Industrials sit under. The index proxy closes 0.23% above its own, from 0.61%.

Relative strength callouts. Micron beats its own sector fund by 187 points on the year and Advanced Micro Devices by 129, while Oracle trails it by 59. Marathon Petroleum beats Energy by 112 points and Phillips 66 by 58. Iron Mountain beats Real Estate by 36 points. The worst relative performers against their own sectors are Intuitive Surgical and NRG at minus 40 each, Nike at minus 37 and Boeing at minus 30. Alphabet’s 12.64% day left it only 4 points ahead of its own sector fund, which is last of eleven.

One line on the consensus. The easy headline this morning is that Big Tech’s AI bill is scaring Wall Street. That’s true for the giants and it’s in the premarket quotes. Our count adds that fifty-one of sixty-seven companies rose on Thursday and seven of eleven sectors turned green while the index fell.

EARNINGS CALENDAR

Fourteen roster names fall inside the next seven calendar days, today through next Thursday, plus Amazon, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly and Gilead, which reported Thursday. Amazon’s miss and its cloud growth agree across several outlets and our feed. Exxon’s and Chevron’s reports are confirmed by their own releases and our feed, but the beat figures come from our feed, with one outlet’s Exxon profit figure alongside. Gilead’s result comes from our feed only. The rest of the dates come from our feed only, and we don’t assert before-the-bell or after-the-bell timing for any of them.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Thursday’s numbers: third-quarter growth came in at 3.4%, ahead of 3.2% expected and up from 2.2% in the second quarter, and September’s spending-price index rose 3.6% on the year, with the core reading at 3.1%, both on forecast. Weekly jobless claims fell to 194,000. Two outlets and our calendar feed agree on all of it. This morning’s wage-cost index is forecast at 0.8% for the quarter, and next Friday’s payrolls report at 40,000 jobs with unemployment at 4.2%, per our feed. Clocks fall back on Sunday, so the times above are Eastern Standard Time from Monday on.

LEADERS AND LAGGARDS

Every figure is measured from the January 2 opening price, for every company and every fund. The index proxy sits at plus 12.20% on the same basis, down from plus 12.63% on Wednesday.

Nike rose 3.42%, and its holders now need a 66.6% gain to get back to January, down from 72.3%. NRG’s need is 65.6% and Netflix’s 51.7%. Oracle gave back 3.45% and its holders’ climb grew to 41.5% from 36.6%. At the top, Micron’s lead shrank by more than 11 points in a day, which is what a 217% year does to a 5% drop. None of these is a recommendation and none is a forecast.

FINAL WORD

The board ends the week with seven green, three yellow and one red, and a red market-risk light on top of all of it. Ten of eleven lights changed on one session. Amazon’s 6% premarket drop and the chip stocks’ 5% will hit the index at the open, and the question for the day is whether the rest of the board holds while the giants fall.

A word on why breadth and the index can disagree. The index proxy weighs each company by its size, so a few giants move it far more than everyone else. Our breadth count gives every company one vote. On Thursday fifty-one of sixty-seven voted up and the index still fell, because one of the heaviest, Alphabet, fell 12.64%. When the two disagree, we watch which one gives in first.

The new test: if fewer than forty of our sixty-seven companies close above their own fifty-day average on any completed session through Thursday, November 5, Thursday’s breadth was a hiding place and not a broadening, and we’ll say so here in those words. Wednesday’s test, the index proxy back under its fifty-day by Friday, hasn’t fired; it sits 0.23% above, and today’s bar decides it. Amazon against the Consumer Discretionary fund is one ratio chart in the Sector Risk tab on the Golden Terminal.

Fourteen roster names report inside the next seven calendar days, from Exxon, Chevron and AbbVie today through Air Products, ConocoPhillips, Duke, EOG, Iron Mountain, Southern and Simon Property next Thursday. Our desk keeps a separate counter on these names ahead of each print, and nothing in it has fired for this group.

FOR THE PROS

Every figure in this issue, checked against the market data it came from. Prices are Thursday’s completed daily bars, Treasury yields come from the Treasury’s own daily curve, and where two sources disagree we show both and say which one the body follows.

The Daily Update is published by Golden Cycles Research for informational and educational purposes only. It isn’t personalized advice and it isn’t a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Figures come from third-party data providers and government releases and can be revised. Past performance doesn’t predict future results.

The Daily Update · Golden Terminal · Vol. III, No. 226 · Friday, October 30, 2026