THE LEAD

The chip maker gave the AI trade real numbers after a rough week. Democrats swept the midterms overnight, Technology came off red and Consumer Staples fell two rungs to red on Tuesday’s bar.

Advanced Micro Devices spent Monday falling like a company braced for bad news, then spent Tuesday night proving otherwise. It earned $2.09 a share against a $1.94 consensus, per two outlets, and its data-center business, the chips that run AI, grew 97% from a year ago, per two. Management told analysts it expects revenue to grow more than 80% next year, per two outlets. The shares are quoted at $501.67 this morning.

The rest of the AI trade got there first. Oracle rose 5.85% on Tuesday, a day after its $20 billion share-and-bond sale knocked it down, and one outlet says buyers decided the sale cleared the air. Broadcom, Micron and Nvidia rose too. We started following who pays for the AI build-out on October 16, and AMD is the first big supplier since then to answer the question with sales instead of a share sale or a margin warning.

The money that went into chips came out of the grocery aisle. Walmart, PepsiCo and Costco each fell more than 2%, Sherwin-Williams gave back a chunk of Monday’s gain, and the Staples fund dropped 2.07%. Only twenty-five of our sixty-seven companies rose while the index proxy gained 0.30%, a flip from Monday, when the crowd rose and the giants fell. A day like that lands hardest on the savers who moved into soap and groceries to sit out the AI swings: their safe corner cost them more than the index made. We haven’t found a source that explains the selling.

The jitters overnight came from the ballot box. Democrats swept the midterms, per four outlets, and Nasdaq futures fell more than 2% at one point, per one, before turning around by dawn, per two. Treasurys rallied and gold’s fund is quoted up 3.05%, so some money is still looking for shelter even as the index proxy is quoted up 1.08%. Oil is the other wild card, with traders waiting to see what the election means for the Iran war, per one outlet.

The other side has a strong hand this morning. AI revenue showed up in a supplier’s results, Technology is off red, the market swallowed an election surprise before the open, and one of the desks we read points out that stocks have a friendly record in the months after midterm elections. On that reading, Monday was the low and the chip names are leading again.

We’d give the chips their day and still keep our distance from the index. The index proxy closed 1.65% under its fifty-day, the market-risk light is still yellow, and breadth slipped to forty-four on a day the index rose. I’ll believe the turn when the crowd joins the chips, and on Tuesday it went the other way. Our breadth test settles it, with two sessions left.

Six of seven rose, and the ones that fell hardest last week led. Oracle gained 5.85%, Advanced Micro Devices 3.65% and Broadcom 3.07%, and Microsoft added 2.74%. The gauge rose to minus 145.86 from minus 153.06, still far under its own average of minus 79.72, so the red becomes yellow. The fund gained 1.31% to $176.51 and sits 6.82% under its fifty-day.

Microsoft crossed back over its trend line and Apple, down 1.90%, crossed under it, so Microsoft is now the only one of seven above. Advanced Micro Devices reported after the close: $2.09 a share against a $1.94 consensus and data-center sales up 97%, per two outlets each, and it’s quoted up 3.67%.

Oracle’s holders need a 56.5% gain to get back to January, down from 65.6% on Monday. Oracle is quoted down 2.69% and the fund up 0.97%.

The asterisk didn’t come off. UnitedHealth rose 1.00% and Intuitive Surgical 0.89%, but Gilead fell 1.68% and Johnson & Johnson 1.62%. The gauge slipped to plus 107.36 from plus 113.84 and its gap to the average of plus 124.93 widened to 17.57 points, so the red holds. The fund slipped 0.31% to $184.02.

All six names still sit above trend and the fund sits 6.62% above its fifty-day, third of eleven on the year at plus 18.82%. It’s a red light on a healthy-looking fund, and that gap is what the next few bars have to settle.

Intuitive Surgical’s holders need a 28.6% gain to get back to January. The fund’s premarket spread is too wide to read.

The card networks gave back part of Monday. Mastercard fell 1.66%, Visa 1.20% and JPMorgan 0.76%, while Bank of America and Berkshire Hathaway edged up. The gauge eased to plus 125.74 from plus 150.71, still well over its average of plus 79.17, so Monday’s green becomes yellow. The fund lost 0.64% to $57.19 and sits 2.26% above its fifty-day.

Three of six sit above trend: Berkshire, Visa and Mastercard. The banks stay under it.

Bank of America’s holders need a 10.8% gain to get back to January. Berkshire reports Saturday, per our feed. The fund is quoted up 1.45%.

Monday’s leaders gave ground. Home Depot fell 2.20%, Nike 1.64% and Tesla 1.32%, while Amazon rose 2.06%. The gauge dropped to plus 137.64 from plus 177.60 but stays over its average of plus 108.12, so it’s yellow. The fund lost 0.70% to $117.33 and sits 3.63% above its fifty-day.

Five of six sit above trend; Amazon still doesn’t. McDonald’s reports this morning, per our feed and one outlet, and our feed shows $3.57 a share against a $3.38 estimate, a figure we haven’t seen confirmed elsewhere yet. It’s quoted up 1.67%.

Nike’s holders need a 66.3% gain to get back to January and McDonald’s 16.1%. The fund’s premarket spread is too wide to read.

The gap closed. Meta rose 2.36%, Netflix 1.73% and Disney 0.95%. The gauge climbed to minus 106.76 from minus 130.10, now 24.80 points over its average of minus 131.56, and above both is green. The fund gained 1.18% to $101.44.

We flagged on Tuesday that 1.71 points was a gap one up day could close, and one did. It’s still a green on a weak fund: Disney is the only one of six above trend, and the fund sits 8.01% under its fifty-day, last of eleven on the year at minus 14.15%.

Netflix’s holders need a 48.4% gain to get back to January and Alphabet’s 13.2%. The fund’s premarket spread is too wide to read.

Caterpillar broke its slide. It rose 1.68% after three down sessions, and Honeywell added 0.13%, while Boeing fell 1.19% and Union Pacific 1.16%. The gauge jumped to plus 210.93 from plus 116.56, far over its average of minus 53.18. The fund gained 0.95% to $171.32.

That lifts the fund back over its fifty-day by 0.58%, which answers the doubt we raised in Tuesday’s issue about a green under its own trend. Four of six names sit above trend.

Boeing’s holders need a 25.9% gain to get back to January. The fund’s premarket spread is too wide to read.

The barrel bounced and the drillers didn’t. The crude fund rose 0.83%, but all six names fell: EOG 1.72%, ConocoPhillips 1.66% and Exxon 1.23%. The gauge fell to minus 33.46 from plus 28.26, deep under its average of plus 100.23, so the red holds. The fund lost 0.85% to $66.68.

Our Tuesday flag on Energy’s premarket bounce didn’t pay; the fund was quoted up 0.99% and closed down. All six names still sit above trend, the fund sits 2.47% above its fifty-day, and it’s first of eleven on the year at plus 49.11%.

The crude fund is quoted down 1.26% and the Energy fund down 0.37%. ConocoPhillips and EOG report Thursday, per our feed.

Every name fell. PepsiCo lost 2.24%, Walmart 2.22% and Costco 2.05%. The gauge dropped to plus 88.83 from plus 127.04 and slid under its average of plus 113.97, and below both is red, two rungs down from green in a single bar. The fund lost 2.07% to $88.95, the worst of the eleven.

All six still sit above trend and the fund sits 4.98% above its fifty-day. Procter & Gamble fell 0.92% on a day the chip fund rose 2.01%, so the silicon took this round from the soap.

PepsiCo’s holders need a 4.3% gain to get back to January. The fund’s premarket spread is too wide to read.

The merchant generators led and the regulated names lagged, the reverse of Monday. Vistra rose 3.70% and NRG 1.73%, while Duke fell 1.46% and Southern 0.91%. The gauge eased to plus 122.85 from plus 149.26, still over its average of plus 101.64, so it stays yellow. The fund slipped 0.57% to $43.42 and sits 3.94% above its fifty-day.

Four of six sit above trend. The ten-year yield rose 4 basis points to 4.95%.

NRG’s holders need a 67.9% gain to get back to January, the most on our roster, and Vistra’s 17.4%. Duke and Southern report Thursday, Vistra Friday and NRG next Monday, per our feed. The fund is quoted up 0.09%.

Monday’s best name was Tuesday’s worst. Sherwin-Williams fell 3.26%, the most of all sixty-seven, and Freeport-McMoRan lost 1.91% as the copper fund fell 2.18%. The gauge fell to plus 123.78 from plus 182.59 but stays over its average of plus 88.43, so it’s yellow. The fund lost 2.01% to $52.59 and sits 3.17% above its fifty-day.

Four of six sit above trend; Newmont and Freeport-McMoRan don’t. We still haven’t found a source for either day’s move in Sherwin-Williams.

Air Products reports Thursday, per our feed. The fund’s premarket spread is too wide to read.

Equinix rose 2.08% and Iron Mountain 1.31%, while American Tower slipped 0.54% and Prologis 0.44%. The fund barely moved, up 0.07% to $43.67, but the gauge eased to plus 153.04 from plus 162.54. It’s still far over its average of plus 68.76, so the green becomes yellow. The fund sits 2.54% above its fifty-day.

Four of six sit above trend; Prologis and Equinix don’t.

Iron Mountain and Simon Property report Thursday, per our feed. The fund’s premarket spread is too wide to read.

ROTATION

Leaders and laggards in the roster. Micron leads at plus 189.74%, then Marathon Petroleum at plus 162.41%, Advanced Micro Devices at plus 121.06%, Phillips 66 at plus 110.81% and ConocoPhillips at plus 54.26%. The bottom three are NRG at minus 40.43%, Nike at minus 39.88% and Oracle at minus 36.10%. Monday’s photo finish for third place is over: Advanced Micro Devices now leads Phillips 66 by 10.25 points.

Above and below the fifty-day. Forty-four of the sixty-seven companies close above their own fifty-day average, unchanged. Microsoft crossed up and Apple crossed down. By sector: Energy six of six, Health Care six of six, Consumer Staples six of six, Consumer Discretionary five of six, Materials four of six, Industrials four of six, Real Estate four of six, Utilities four of six, Financials three of six, Technology one of seven, Communication Services one of six. Nine of the eleven sector funds close above their own fifty-day, up from eight, as Industrials crossed back over; Technology and Communication Services sit under. The index proxy closes 1.65% under its own, from 1.97%.

Relative strength callouts. Micron beats its own sector fund by 169 points on the year and Advanced Micro Devices by 100, while Oracle trails it by 57. Marathon Petroleum beats Energy by 113 points and Phillips 66 by 62. Deere beats Industrials by 33 points and Iron Mountain beats Real Estate by 32. The worst relative performers against their own sectors are Oracle at minus 57, NRG at minus 42, Intuitive Surgical at minus 41 and Nike at minus 38.

One line on the consensus. The easy headline this morning is AMD’s quarter and the election. Our count adds that only twenty-five of sixty-seven companies rose on Tuesday while the chips led, and that Consumer Staples went from green to red in one bar.

EARNINGS CALENDAR

Eleven roster names report inside the next seven calendar days, from McDonald’s this morning through NRG next Monday, and Advanced Micro Devices reported last night. McDonald’s date comes from our feed and one outlet; the rest come from our feed only, and we don’t assert before-the-bell or after-the-bell timing for them.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Tuesday’s job-openings report came in at 7.52 million against 7.1 million expected, and September factory orders rose 1.8%, per our feed; we haven’t seen either figure confirmed elsewhere. For this morning our feed shows a forecast of 69,000 private jobs from ADP, and for Friday’s payrolls 65,000 with unemployment at 4.2%.

LEADERS AND LAGGARDS

Every figure is measured from the January 2 opening price, for every company and every fund. The index proxy sits at plus 10.01% on the same basis, up from plus 9.68% on Monday.

NRG’s holders need a 67.9% gain to get back to January, Nike’s 66.3%, Oracle’s 56.5% and Netflix’s 48.4%. Oracle’s need shrank by nine points in a single session, which is what a 5.85% day does from a deep hole, and it still leaves the climb longer than most of the roster has gained all year. None of these is a recommendation and none is a forecast.

FINAL WORD

The board reads two green, six yellow and three red under a yellow market-risk light. Seven lights changed on Tuesday’s bar, and the two that matter most are Technology, off red after Monday’s slide, and Consumer Staples, down two rungs to red.

A word on two-rung moves. A light compares today’s reading with yesterday’s and with its own twenty-day average. Green means above both and red means below both, so a gauge that falls hard enough to drop under its average in a single session skips yellow entirely. That’s what happened to Consumer Staples, and it says the turn was sudden, not that it will last.

Our open test, set October 30: if fewer than forty of our sixty-seven companies close above their own fifty-day average on any completed session through Thursday, November 5, October 29’s breadth was a hiding place and not a broadening, and we’ll say so here. Tuesday’s count was forty-four, unchanged, with two sessions left. AMD against the Technology fund is one ratio chart in the Sector Risk tab on the Golden Terminal.

Eleven roster names report inside the next seven calendar days, from McDonald’s this morning through NRG next Monday. Our desk keeps a separate counter on these names ahead of each print, and nothing in it has fired for this group.

FOR THE PROS

Every figure in this issue, checked against the market data it came from. Prices are Tuesday’s completed daily bars, Treasury yields come from the Treasury’s own daily curve, and where two sources disagree we show both and say which one the body follows.

The Daily Update is published by Golden Cycles Research for informational and educational purposes only. It isn’t personalized advice and it isn’t a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Figures come from third-party data providers and government releases and can be revised. Past performance doesn’t predict future results.

The Daily Update · Golden Terminal · Vol. III, No. 230 · Wednesday, November 4, 2026