THE LEAD

Memory-chip costs are squeezing the iPhone maker’s margins on the day Americans vote. The crude fund fell 7.08% on Monday and turned Energy red, while the market-risk light eased to yellow.

Apple did nearly everything right in its September quarter, and the stock is paying for the one cost it can’t control. Revenue set a record for the quarter, per three outlets, and John Ternus got through his first call as chief executive with iPhone and Mac sales both growing at double digits, per two. The trouble is memory. The chips that go into every phone and laptop have gotten expensive, and Apple warned they’ll squeeze its holiday-quarter profit, per two outlets, while its services business grows more slowly. The shares closed Monday at $338.32 and are quoted at $325.81 this morning.

The rest of the AI trade had another rough Monday. Oracle fell 8.76%, and that night it priced $20 billion of new stock and bonds, per its release, with the shares sold at $116. Advanced Micro Devices fell for a second straight session ahead of its report today, and one outlet says the Nasdaq-100 has slipped into its third correction this year. We started following who pays for the AI build-out on October 16. Three weeks later the bill is showing up as a share sale, a margin warning and a stock that can’t wait for its own numbers.

Most of our companies spent the day somewhere else. Thirty-eight of sixty-seven rose, and the gains came from paint, home improvement and the card networks: Sherwin-Williams added 5.94%, Home Depot 3.63% and Mastercard 3.15%. The Dow proxy finished higher on a day the Nasdaq proxy fell.

The jitters this week come from three directions, and oil swung hardest. The crude fund fell 7.08% on hopes for a negotiated end to the Iran war, per three outlets, then reports of US strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island overnight sent it back up 2.86% before the bell. Americans vote in the midterms today, and October payrolls land Friday. An oil drop like Monday’s lands unevenly. It puts money back in the pocket of anyone filling a tank or heating a house this winter, and it’s a pay cut for the drillers, refiners and royalty owners whose income moves with the barrel.

The other side of this is serious. The money changed seats on Monday: forty-four of our sixty-seven companies still close above their own fifty-day average, the Dow proxy rose, and the market-risk light moved up from red to yellow even though the index proxy slipped. On that reading the AI names are working off a huge year, Micron is still up 182.45% since January, and the rest of the economy’s stocks are doing the lifting a healthy market needs.

We’d take the rotation seriously and still keep the index at arm’s length. The index proxy closed 1.97% under its fifty-day average, the biggest tech names are still falling, and a yellow is a pause, not a reversal. I keep coming back to Apple: a record quarter followed by a falling stock tells me the market has stopped paying up for good news. Our breadth test is the referee from here, with three sessions left.

All seven fell for a second straight session. Oracle lost 8.76%, Advanced Micro Devices 7.52% and Micron 5.78%, and Microsoft slipped 2.83%. The gauge sank to minus 153.06 from minus 129.12, far under its own average of minus 65.91, so the red holds. The fund fell 2.95% to $174.22 and sits 8.07% under its fifty-day.

Microsoft crossed under its trend line, which leaves Apple as the only one of seven above it, and Apple is quoted down 3.70% this morning. After the close Oracle priced $20 billion of new stock and bonds, per its release, with the shares sold at $116.00, under Monday’s $119.22 close.

Oracle’s holders now need a 65.6% gain to get back to January, up from 51.1% on Friday. Advanced Micro Devices reports today, per our feed and two outlets, and is quoted up 1.78%. The fund is quoted down 0.10%.

Health Care’s red comes with an asterisk. The fund slipped only 0.15% to $184.60 and all six names still sit above trend, but the gauge fell to plus 113.84 from plus 138.08 and slid just under its own average of plus 117.27. Below both is red, two rungs down from green in a single bar.

AbbVie fell 2.05% and UnitedHealth 1.60%, while Intuitive Surgical rose 1.12%. The fund still sits 7.07% above its fifty-day and third of eleven on the year at plus 19.20%. Its gauge sits 3.43 points under its average, close enough that one quiet day can undo the red.

Intuitive Surgical’s holders need a 29.7% gain to get back to January. The fund is quoted down 0.31%.

The card networks led and the fund followed. Mastercard rose 3.15%, Visa 2.88% and Berkshire Hathaway 2.51%. The gauge jumped to plus 150.71 from plus 110.69, over its average of plus 69.63, so Friday’s yellow goes back to green. The fund gained 1.86% to $57.56 and sits 2.88% above its fifty-day.

JPMorgan rose 1.05% and Goldman Sachs 0.47%, but both stay under trend, as does Bank of America, which fell 0.88%. Three of six sit above it.

Bank of America’s holders need an 11.0% gain to get back to January. Berkshire reports Saturday, per our feed. The fund is quoted down 0.52%.

Friday’s red didn’t make it through the weekend. All six rose: Home Depot 3.63%, McDonald’s 2.91% and Amazon 2.20%. The gauge leapt to plus 177.60 from plus 79.25, over its average of plus 102.59, and that’s green, two rungs up in one bar. The fund gained 2.41% to $118.16, the best of the eleven, and sits 4.35% above its fifty-day.

Five of six sit above trend; Amazon is still the one that doesn’t. One outlet credits cheaper oil and lower yields for Monday’s lift in consumer stocks.

Nike’s holders need a 63.6% gain to get back to January and McDonald’s 14.9%. McDonald’s reports Wednesday, per our feed. The fund shows no premarket trade.

Four of six rose and the gauge kept climbing. Disney gained 1.96% and Verizon 0.72%, while Meta fell 1.34%. The gauge rose to minus 130.10 from minus 166.60, now just 1.71 points under its average of minus 128.39, so it stays yellow. The fund added 0.36% to $100.26 and sits 9.26% under its fifty-day, last of eleven on the year at minus 15.15%.

Disney is the only one of six above trend. A gap that small can close on one more up day, so we flag it.

Netflix’s holders need a 51.0% gain to get back to January and Alphabet’s 13.6%. The fund’s premarket quote is 68 shares, too thin to read.

Honeywell and Boeing did the lifting. Honeywell rose 2.49%, Boeing 2.24% and UPS 1.35%, while Caterpillar fell for a third session, down 1.47%, and Deere slipped 1.17%. The gauge jumped to plus 116.56 from plus 9.81, far over its average of minus 57.79, so the yellow turns green. The fund gained 1.38% to $169.71 but sits 0.45% under its fifty-day.

Four of six sit above trend: Honeywell, UPS, Union Pacific and Deere. A green on a fund still under its fifty-day hasn’t proved itself yet.

Boeing’s holders need a 24.4% gain to get back to January. The fund’s premarket spread is too wide to read.

All six fell. ConocoPhillips lost 4.67%, EOG 4.62% and Exxon 4.05% as the crude fund dropped 7.08% on hopes for a negotiated end to the Iran war, per three outlets. The gauge collapsed to plus 28.26 from plus 115.08, under its average of plus 102.41, and that’s red, two rungs down from Friday’s green. The fund lost 3.96% to $67.25, the worst of the eleven, though it still sits 3.46% above its fifty-day and first of eleven on the year at plus 50.38%.

That’s the reversal we flagged on Monday morning, when oil was sliding against the new green. Marathon Petroleum reported this morning: adjusted earnings of $26.93 a share against our feed’s $25.37 estimate, a 10% dividend increase and the sale of two refineries to CVR Energy for about $4.2 billion, per releases from both companies.

Oil is back up before the bell after reports of a US strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island, per three outlets. The crude fund is quoted up 2.86% and the Energy fund up 0.99% on 124,651 shares, against its new red and past our line, so we flag it. ConocoPhillips and EOG report Thursday, per our feed.

The big-box stores led. Walmart rose 3.38% and Costco 2.79%, and PepsiCo added 2.24%. The gauge climbed to plus 127.04 from plus 106.29, over its average of plus 106.91, so the green holds with a cushion of 20.13 points. The fund gained 1.58% to $90.83 and sits 7.23% above its fifty-day.

All six sit above trend. Procter & Gamble rose 1.23% on a day the chip fund lost 2.71%, the third time in two weeks the soap has outrun the silicon.

PepsiCo’s holders need a 2.0% gain to get back to January. The fund is quoted down 0.43%.

The regulated utilities rose and the merchant generators didn’t. NextEra gained 1.58%, Southern 0.96% and Duke 0.78%, while Vistra fell 2.72% and NRG 1.50%. The gauge eased to plus 149.26 from plus 156.36, still well over its average of plus 96.04, so it’s yellow. The fund gained 0.55% to $43.67 and sits 4.55% above its fifty-day.

Four of six sit above trend. The ten-year yield fell 3 basis points to 4.91%.

NRG’s holders need a 70.8% gain to get back to January, the most on our roster, and Vistra’s 21.8%. Duke and Southern report Thursday, Vistra Friday and NRG next Monday, per our feed. The fund is flat before the bell.

Sherwin-Williams had the best day of all sixty-seven, up 5.94%. Newmont added 2.33% and Ecolab 1.78% as gold’s fund rose 1.65%. The gauge rose to plus 182.59 from plus 133.96, far over its average of plus 80.86. The fund gained 1.76% to $53.67 and sits 5.25% above its fifty-day.

Four of six sit above trend; Newmont and Freeport-McMoRan don’t. We haven’t found a source for Sherwin-Williams’s move, so we won’t guess at one.

Air Products reports Thursday, per our feed. The fund shows no premarket trade.

Public Storage rose 2.61%, Simon Property 1.83% and Prologis 1.30%, while Equinix fell 1.97%. The gauge rose to plus 162.54 from plus 146.65, far over its average of plus 56.95. The fund gained 1.09% to $43.64 and sits 2.39% above its fifty-day.

Four of six sit above trend; Prologis and Equinix don’t.

Iron Mountain and Simon Property report Thursday, per our feed. The fund’s premarket quote is 543 shares, too thin to read.

ROTATION

Leaders and laggards in the roster. Micron leads at plus 182.45%, then Marathon Petroleum at plus 164.29%, Advanced Micro Devices at plus 113.27%, Phillips 66 at plus 113.21% and ConocoPhillips at plus 56.86%. The bottom three are NRG at minus 41.44%, Oracle at minus 39.63% and Nike at minus 38.88%. Advanced Micro Devices holds third place over Phillips 66 by six hundredths of a point, a chip maker and a refiner in a photo finish nobody would have bet on in January.

Above and below the fifty-day. Forty-four of the sixty-seven companies close above their own fifty-day average, down from forty-five. Microsoft crossed down and nobody crossed up. By sector: Energy six of six, Health Care six of six, Consumer Staples six of six, Consumer Discretionary five of six, Materials four of six, Industrials four of six, Real Estate four of six, Utilities four of six, Financials three of six, Technology one of seven, Communication Services one of six. Eight of the eleven sector funds close above their own fifty-day, the same eight as Friday; Technology, Communication Services and Industrials sit under. The index proxy closes 1.97% under its own, from 1.53%.

Relative strength callouts. Micron beats its own sector fund by 163 points on the year and Advanced Micro Devices by 94, while Oracle trails it by 59. Marathon Petroleum beats Energy by 114 points and Phillips 66 by 63. Deere beats Industrials by 34 points and Iron Mountain beats Real Estate by 31. The worst relative performers against their own sectors are Oracle at minus 59, NRG at minus 43, Intuitive Surgical at minus 42 and Nike at minus 37.

One line on the consensus. The easy headline this morning is Apple’s slide after a record quarter. Our count adds that thirty-eight of sixty-seven companies rose on Monday and the market-risk light came off red, while the index proxy sank further under its fifty-day.

EARNINGS CALENDAR

Thirteen roster names fall inside the next seven calendar days, from Advanced Micro Devices and Marathon Petroleum today through NRG next Monday. Advanced Micro Devices’ date comes from our feed and two outlets, and Marathon Petroleum has already reported. The rest of the dates come from our feed only, and we don’t assert before-the-bell or after-the-bell timing for any of them.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

One outlet reports that Monday’s factory survey showed activity still expanding; we don’t have a second source on the figure, so we don’t print one. For Friday’s payrolls our feed now shows a forecast of 65,000 jobs, the same number one outlet had on Monday, with unemployment at 4.2%. October consumer prices land a week from today.

LEADERS AND LAGGARDS

Every figure is measured from the January 2 opening price, for every company and every fund. The index proxy sits at plus 9.68% on the same basis, down from plus 10.21% on Friday.

Oracle’s holders took the worst of Monday: they now need a 65.6% gain to get back to January, up from 51.1%, and Oracle passed Nike into second-to-last. NRG’s need is 70.8%, Nike’s 63.6% and Netflix’s 51.0%. Oracle rose 11.17% in the week to October 29, and the people who bought into that run are the ones carrying this. None of these is a recommendation and none is a forecast.

FINAL WORD

The board reads six green, two yellow and three red under a yellow market-risk light. Seven lights changed on Monday’s bar, and the two that matter most are the market-risk light, up from red, and Energy, down two rungs from green to red as oil fell.

A word on thin verdicts. Every light compares today’s reading with yesterday’s and with its own twenty-day average, and the gap to that average is the cushion. When the cushion is a point or two, one ordinary session can flip the color, so we flag it. Communication Services sits yellow this morning 1.71 points under its average, and Health Care turned red by 3.43. Both are close calls, and either can change on the next bar.

Our open test, set October 30: if fewer than forty of our sixty-seven companies close above their own fifty-day average on any completed session through Thursday, November 5, October 29’s breadth was a hiding place and not a broadening, and we’ll say so here. Monday’s count was forty-four, down one, with three sessions left. Apple against the Technology fund is one ratio chart in the Sector Risk tab on the Golden Terminal.

Thirteen roster names report inside the next seven calendar days, from Advanced Micro Devices and Marathon Petroleum today through NRG next Monday. Our desk keeps a separate counter on these names ahead of each print, and nothing in it has fired for this group.

FOR THE PROS

Every figure in this issue, checked against the market data it came from. Prices are Monday’s completed daily bars, Treasury yields come from the Treasury’s own daily curve, and where two sources disagree we show both and say which one the body follows.

The Daily Update is published by Golden Cycles Research for informational and educational purposes only. It isn’t personalized advice and it isn’t a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Figures come from third-party data providers and government releases and can be revised. Past performance doesn’t predict future results.

The Daily Update · Golden Terminal · Vol. III, No. 229 · Tuesday, November 3, 2026