| GOLDEN TERMINAL |
| The Daily Update |
| Monday, October 26, 2026 · Vol. III · No. 222 · Premarket as of 7:07 ET |
| AT&T Fell 7.96% On Reports SpaceX Is Shopping For Cell Sites |
| Verizon beat the estimate this morning, by two outlets. Underneath, oil's jump turned Energy green while four greens slipped to yellow, and the board reads two green, seven yellow and two red. |
| By Brad Hoppmann · Filed from Taintsville, Florida |
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S&P 500 (SPY) $759.97 ▼ 0.52% Friday | Nasdaq (QQQ) $704.40 ▼ 0.01% | 10-Yr Yield 5.00% +4 bp, Oct 23 |
VIX (VXX) $18.72 ▲ 1.30% | Crude (USO) $169.53 ▲ 4.32% | SECTOR LIGHTS 2 green 7 yellow 2 red of 11 sectors |
THE BRIEF · 30-SECOND READ
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THE SECTOR BOARD Eleven sectors, one verdict each | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| How to read it: Close and the day's move are each sector fund's completed daily bar. Gauge is the 20-day Commodity Channel Index; the arrow shows its direction versus the prior session. Green = gauge above the prior session and above its 20-day average; Red = below both; Yellow = anything in between. |
THE LEAD
AT&T Fell 7.96% On Reports SpaceX Is Shopping For Cell Sites
Verizon beat the estimate this morning, by two outlets. Underneath, oil’s jump turned Energy green while four greens slipped to yellow, and the board reads two green, seven yellow and two red.
AT&T had a rotten Friday, and none of it came from AT&T’s own numbers. Two outlets reported that SpaceX is in talks with cell-tower owners to carry its Starlink phone service, and one says it’s eyeing 80,000 sites. The stock fell 7.96% to $20.93, the worst move among our sixty-seven, two days after a 6.45% drop on the day it reported. Its holders now sit 15.57% under where they started the year.
Underneath is a fight over who owns the pipes. Verizon fell 1.19% and Alphabet 1.24%, and Communication Services stayed the deepest red on the board at minus 295.29. American Tower went the other way, up 4.08%, the best move on the roster. Verizon answered this morning. The company calls it a record quarter on phone and account additions, two outlets have it beating the estimate, and our feed shows $1.31 a share against $1.27. One outlet says revenue missed. The stock is quoted up 1.84% before the open.
The rest of the market has its own reasons to be jumpy. Crude jumped again, our crude fund up 4.32%, with one outlet putting it above $117 a barrel. The ten-year went back to 5.00%. The Fed meets Wednesday and the biggest week of earnings arrives with it, and one outlet called Friday a sell-off that spread beyond tech. Energy went green, four greens went yellow, and the index proxy fell 0.52% with only eighteen of our sixty-seven higher.
Somebody pays for a 4.32% day in crude, and it’s mostly people who never look at an oil chart: the commuter at the pump, the trucking company, the airline, and every business that ships what it sells. The energy companies’ holders had a good Friday. Everybody who buys fuel got the bill.
Before our conclusion, the strongest case for the bulls. Thursday’s sell-off in the giants didn’t follow through: the chip fund rose 0.74% and Micron 2.46%. Forty-one of our sixty-seven still sit above trend. The ten-year is sitting near 5% instead of running away from it, and two outlets point to a long record of stocks rising in the year after a midterm election, which is nine days off. On that reading, Friday was a pause before a better November.
We think the bulls have the giants right for one day and the breadth wrong. A day when only eighteen of sixty-seven rose isn’t a broad market, and Friday’s one new green was the sector that profits when everybody else’s costs go up. Seven yellows is the board saying it hasn’t made up its mind. The market-risk gauge is red and deeper, at minus 132.58, and it won’t turn until the index is back above its fifty-day.
 | Brad Hoppmann Filed from Taintsville, Florida · Pop. < 1,000 ‘Taint in the Beltway, ‘taint in any backwards corrupt city, just a Florida man with a sharp pencil and a long memory of expensive lessons. |
BEFORE THE OPEN What To Watch Before The Open Quotes from 7:07 ET. The index proxy is quoted up 0.04% on 181,712 shares, the Nasdaq proxy down 0.09% on 567,674 and the small-company proxy up 0.08% on 65,152. The chip fund is down 0.11% on 47,974 shares. Crude’s fund is down 2.50% on 384,965 shares after Friday’s jump, and the Energy fund down 1.17% on 103,289, against its new green and by enough that we flag it. Utilities are up 0.23% and Technology down 0.15%. The Financials and Consumer Staples quotes are up 0.38% each on wide spreads, Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services are too thin to lean on, and Health Care, Industrials, Materials and Real Estate show no premarket trade. Verizon is up 1.84% on its report and AT&T up 0.67%. The long Treasury fund is up 0.28% and the volatility fund down 1.04%. A premarket quote isn’t a forecast and it doesn’t move a light. |
The index fell 0.52%. Only eighteen of our sixty-seven companies rose.
THE READER, INVESTOR & ACTIVE TRADER TIERS Sector Cycle Radar The full sector-by-sector breakdown, rotation snapshot, and validation data continue below. |
The Engines of the Modern Economy Information Technology XLK $183.23 ▲ 0.49% · ● YELLOW (from red) |
Technology Climbed Out Of Red As Micron Rose 2.46%.
One session in red, then yellow. The gauge rose to minus 121.39 from minus 143.05, but it’s still under its own average of minus 10.28, so it’s getting better without being well yet. The fund gained 0.49% to $183.23 and sits 3.38% under its fifty-day.
The chips bounced. Micron rose 2.46%, Advanced Micro Devices 1.74%, Microsoft 0.66% and Oracle 0.49%. Apple slipped 0.14% on the day its new iPhone Duo went on sale, by two outlets, and Nvidia lost 0.59% and Broadcom 0.48%. Only Apple and Microsoft sit above trend.
Our test from Friday’s issue, the gauge back above zero by Thursday, still needs another 121 points. Oracle’s holders need a 56.5% gain to get back to January and Broadcom’s 9.7%. Microsoft reports Wednesday and Apple next Monday, per our feed. The fund is quoted down 0.15% this morning.
DOMINATORS & DATA · XLK Gauge (20-day CCI): -121.39 now · -143.05 prior · -10.28 average | |||||||||||||||||||||
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| Four advancers, three decliners, average +0.59%. Above the fifty-day: two of seven (Microsoft, Apple). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +25.82%, second of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($189.64) by 3.38%. |
The Business of Staying Alive Health Care XLV $179.28 ▼ 1.11% · ● YELLOW (from green) |
Health Care Slipped To Yellow As Eli Lilly Fell 2.54%.
Green for a day, then yellow again. The gauge fell to plus 112.40 from plus 153.36, still above its average of plus 77.63, so it’s a pause. The fund lost 1.11% to $179.28 and still sits 4.77% above its fifty-day.
Eli Lilly led the decline at minus 2.54%, with UnitedHealth down 1.62% and Johnson & Johnson 1.42%, which slipped back under its fifty-day. Gilead lost 0.73%. Intuitive Surgical rose 1.90% and AbbVie 0.16%. Five of six hold above trend.
Intuitive Surgical’s holders need a 25.3% gain to get back to January. Eli Lilly and Gilead report Thursday and AbbVie Friday, per our feed. The fund shows no premarket trade.
DOMINATORS & DATA · XLV Gauge (20-day CCI): +112.40 now · +153.36 prior · +77.63 average | ||||||||||||||||||
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| Two advancers, four decliners, average -0.71%. Above the fifty-day: five of six (Intuitive Surgical, AbbVie, Gilead, UnitedHealth, Eli Lilly). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +15.76%, third of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($171.12) by 4.77%. |
The Lenders, The Clearers And The Underwriters Financials XLF $55.90 ▼ 1.32% · ● YELLOW (from green) |
Financials Slipped To Yellow And Back Under Its Trend Line.
Above its fifty-day for one session, then under again. The gauge fell to plus 114.04 from plus 164.71, still well above its average of minus 1.18, so it’s yellow. The fund lost 1.32% to $55.90 and closes 0.31% under its fifty-day.
All six fell. Goldman Sachs led the way down at minus 1.75%, then Visa at 1.55%, Mastercard 1.52%, JPMorgan 1.47%, Bank of America 1.02% and Berkshire 0.87%. Berkshire, Mastercard and Visa hold above trend.
A ten-year back at 5.00% didn’t help anybody who lends. Bank of America’s holders need an 8.8% gain to get back to January. Visa reports Tuesday and Mastercard Thursday, per our feed. The fund is quoted up 0.38% on a wide spread.
DOMINATORS & DATA · XLF Gauge (20-day CCI): +114.04 now · +164.71 prior · -1.18 average | ||||||||||||||||||
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| No advancers, six decliners, average -1.36%. Above the fifty-day: three of six (Berkshire Hathaway, Mastercard, Visa). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +1.95%, eighth of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($56.08) by 0.31%. |
Where The Paycheck Goes After The Bills Consumer Discretionary XLY $113.10 ▼ 1.66% · ● YELLOW (held) |
Consumer Discretionary Stayed Yellow As Home Depot Fell 2.41%.
Still yellow, and now with the thinnest cushion on the board. The gauge fell to plus 54.25 from plus 122.31, only 16.12 points above its own average of plus 38.13. The fund lost 1.66% to $113.10 and slipped 0.30% under its fifty-day.
All six fell. Nike lost 2.66%, Home Depot 2.41%, McDonald’s 1.65%, Starbucks 1.09%, Amazon 0.95% and Tesla 0.63%. McDonald’s slipped back under its fifty-day, which leaves four of six above trend.
Nike’s holders need a 71.6% gain to get back to January, McDonald’s 22.9% and Tesla’s 23.0%. Amazon and Starbucks report Thursday, per our feed. This morning’s quote on the fund is too thin to read.
DOMINATORS & DATA · XLY Gauge (20-day CCI): +54.25 now · +122.31 prior · +38.13 average | ||||||||||||||||||
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| No advancers, six decliners, average -1.57%. Above the fifty-day: four of six (Tesla, Starbucks, Home Depot, Nike). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: -5.81%, tenth of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($113.44) by 0.30%. |
The Pipes And The Programming Communication Services XLC $105.51 ▼ 1.78% · ● RED (held) |
Communication Services Stayed Red As AT&T Fell 7.96%.
Still the deepest red on the board. The gauge fell to minus 295.29 from minus 285.37, far under its average of minus 97.86. The fund lost 1.78% to $105.51, sits 5.46% under its fifty-day and is last of eleven on the year at minus 10.71%.
AT&T did the damage, down 7.96% on the SpaceX reports, and Verizon lost 1.19%. Netflix fell 1.79%, Alphabet 1.24%, Meta 0.96% and Disney 0.54%. Disney is still the only one of six above trend.
AT&T’s holders need an 18.4% gain to get back to January and Netflix’s 42.9%. Verizon reported this morning and is quoted up 1.84%. Alphabet reports Wednesday, per our feed.
DOMINATORS & DATA · XLC Gauge (20-day CCI): -295.29 now · -285.37 prior · -97.86 average | ||||||||||||||||||
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| No advancers, six decliners, average -2.28%. Above the fifty-day: one of six (Disney). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: -10.71%, eleventh of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($111.60) by 5.46%. |
The Things That Move Other Things Industrials XLI $164.62 ▼ 1.27% · ● RED (held) |
Industrials Stayed Red As Caterpillar Fell Another 2.42%.
Red again, and deeper. The gauge fell to minus 231.23 from minus 138.19, well under its average of minus 83.92. The fund lost 1.27% to $164.62 and sits 4.42% under its fifty-day.
Caterpillar fell another 2.42% and Union Pacific gave back 1.75%. Honeywell rose 1.30%, Boeing 0.43% and Deere 0.39%, and UPS slipped 0.45%. Honeywell, UPS and Union Pacific hold above trend.
Boeing and UPS report Tuesday and Caterpillar Thursday, per our feed. Boeing’s holders need a 15.8% gain to get back to January. The fund shows no premarket trade worth the name.
DOMINATORS & DATA · XLI Gauge (20-day CCI): -231.23 now · -138.19 prior · -83.92 average | ||||||||||||||||||
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| Three advancers, three decliners, average -0.42%. Above the fifty-day: three of six (Honeywell, UPS, Union Pacific). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +5.78%, sixth of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($172.24) by 4.42%. |
The Molecules Everything Else Runs On Energy XLE $69.33 ▲ 2.60% · ● GREEN (from yellow) |
Energy Went Green As Crude Jumped 4.32%.
Crude went up again, and this time the oil stocks came along. Our crude fund rose 4.32% and the Energy fund 2.60% to $69.33, the best of the eleven. The gauge rose to plus 107.94 from plus 77.40, above its average of plus 52.57, so it’s green. The fund sits 7.76% above its fifty-day and first on the year at plus 55.03%.
The producers led: ConocoPhillips up 3.55%, EOG 3.21%, Chevron 2.88% and Exxon 2.79%. The refiners lagged, with Phillips 66 down 0.51% and Marathon Petroleum 0.45%. All six sit above trend.
This morning runs the other way. Crude’s fund is quoted down 2.50% and the Energy fund down 1.17%, more than three-quarters of a percent against the new green, so we flag it. Two outlets tie the dip to talk of U.S.-Iran diplomacy. A premarket quote doesn’t change the light. Phillips 66 reports Wednesday and Exxon and Chevron Friday, per our feed.
DOMINATORS & DATA · XLE Gauge (20-day CCI): +107.94 now · +77.40 prior · +52.57 average | ||||||||||||||||||
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| Four advancers, two decliners, average +1.91%. Above the fifty-day: six of six. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +55.03%, first of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($64.34) by 7.76%. |
The Aisles Nobody Skips Consumer Staples XLP $88.26 ▼ 1.92% · ● YELLOW (from green) |
Consumer Staples Gave Back Its Green After One Session.
Thursday’s best sector was Friday’s worst. The fund fell 1.92% to $88.26, last of the eleven, and the gauge slipped to plus 112.10 from plus 142.33. It’s still well above its average of plus 42.93, so it’s yellow. The fund sits 4.60% above its fifty-day.
All six fell. Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola lost 2.76% each, PepsiCo 2.20%, Costco 1.46%, Philip Morris 1.13% and Walmart 1.02%. All six still sit above trend.
Coca-Cola reports Tuesday, per our feed. PepsiCo’s holders need a 5.5% gain to get back to January. The fund is quoted up 0.38% on a wide spread.
DOMINATORS & DATA · XLP Gauge (20-day CCI): +112.10 now · +142.33 prior · +42.93 average | ||||||||||||||||||
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| No advancers, six decliners, average -1.89%. Above the fifty-day: six of six. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +13.58%, fourth of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($84.38) by 4.60%. |
The Bill That Arrives Regardless Utilities XLU $42.56 ▼ 0.72% · ● YELLOW (from green) |
Utilities Slipped To Yellow As NRG Fell 2.19%.
Utilities took a small step back. The gauge eased to plus 115.73 from plus 122.73, still far above its average of plus 29.76. The fund lost 0.72% to $42.56 and sits 1.65% above its fifty-day.
NextEra was the only gainer, up 0.24%. Duke slipped 0.33%, Vistra 0.48%, American Electric Power 0.73%, Southern 0.99% and NRG 2.19%. Four of six hold above trend; Vistra and NRG don’t.
Utilities borrow heavily, so a ten-year back at 5.00% costs them something. NRG’s holders need a 75.0% gain to get back to January and Vistra’s 16.9%. American Electric Power reports Wednesday, per our feed.
DOMINATORS & DATA · XLU Gauge (20-day CCI): +115.73 now · +122.73 prior · +29.76 average | ||||||||||||||||||
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| One advancer, five decliners, average -0.75%. Above the fifty-day: four of six (NextEra, Duke Energy, American Electric Power, Southern). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: -0.77%, ninth of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($41.87) by 1.65%. |
The Raw Material Under Everything Materials XLB $51.31 ▼ 0.74% · ● YELLOW (held) |
Materials Stayed Yellow As Newmont Fell 4.59%.
Gold pulled this one down. Newmont fell 4.59% while the gold fund lost 0.65%, and Sherwin-Williams gave up 2.48% and Ecolab 1.29%. Freeport-McMoRan rose 0.91% with the copper fund up 1.53%.
The fund lost 0.74% to $51.31, and the gauge slipped to plus 114.77 from plus 147.66. It’s still far above its average of plus 7.04, so it’s yellow. The fund sits 0.58% above its fifty-day, and four of six hold above trend.
Sherwin-Williams, Ecolab and Freeport-McMoRan report Tuesday and Linde Thursday, per our feed. The fund shows no premarket trade.
DOMINATORS & DATA · XLB Gauge (20-day CCI): +114.77 now · +147.66 prior · +7.04 average | ||||||||||||||||||
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| One advancer, five decliners, average -1.35%. Above the fifty-day: four of six (Linde, Air Products, Ecolab, Sherwin-Williams). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +12.72%, fifth of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($51.02) by 0.58%. |
The Ground Rent On The Whole Economy Real Estate XLRE $42.57 ▲ 0.12% · ● GREEN (held) |
Real Estate Held Green As American Tower Jumped 4.08%.
The only sector that kept its green. The gauge rose to plus 146.11 from plus 122.50, far above its average of minus 18.60. The fund gained 0.12% to $42.57 but still sits 0.71% under its fifty-day, so it’s still a bounce until it holds.
American Tower led the whole roster at plus 4.08% on the day the phone companies sold off over the SpaceX reports. Equinix and Public Storage added 0.25% each. Iron Mountain fell 0.63%, Simon Property 0.19% and Prologis 0.17%. Three of six sit above trend.
Public Storage reports today, American Tower Tuesday and Equinix Wednesday, per our feed. Prologis holders need a 1.0% gain to get back to January. The fund shows no premarket trade.
DOMINATORS & DATA · XLRE Gauge (20-day CCI): +146.11 now · +122.50 prior · -18.60 average | ||||||||||||||||||
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| Three advancers, three decliners, average +0.60%. Above the fifty-day: three of six (American Tower, Public Storage, Simon Property). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +5.53%, seventh of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($42.87) by 0.71%. |
ROTATION
Sector Rotation Snapshot
| Rank | Sector Fund | YTD | Friday | Verdict | 50-Day |
| 1 | XLE Energy | +55.03% | +2.60% | GREEN | ABOVE |
| 2 | XLK Technology | +25.82% | +0.49% | YELLOW | below |
| 3 | XLV Health Care | +15.76% | -1.11% | YELLOW | ABOVE |
| 4 | XLP Consumer Staples | +13.58% | -1.92% | YELLOW | ABOVE |
| 5 | XLB Materials | +12.72% | -0.74% | YELLOW | ABOVE |
| 6 | XLI Industrials | +5.78% | -1.27% | RED | below |
| 7 | XLRE Real Estate | +5.53% | +0.12% | GREEN | below |
| 8 | XLF Financials | +1.95% | -1.32% | YELLOW | below |
| 9 | XLU Utilities | -0.77% | -0.72% | YELLOW | ABOVE |
| 10 | XLY Consumer Discretionary | -5.81% | -1.66% | YELLOW | below |
| 11 | XLC Communication Services | -10.71% | -1.78% | RED | below |
Leaders and laggards in the roster. Micron leads at plus 197.35%, then Marathon Petroleum at plus 180.76%, Advanced Micro Devices at plus 136.08%, Phillips 66 at plus 119.52% and ConocoPhillips at plus 61.09%. The bottom three are NRG at minus 42.87%, Nike at minus 41.72% and Oracle at minus 36.11%. Micron’s lead over Marathon Petroleum widened to 16.6 points from 8.2.
Above and below the fifty-day. Forty-one of the sixty-seven companies close above their own fifty-day average, down from forty-three. None crossed up. Two crossed down: Johnson & Johnson and McDonald’s. By sector: Energy six of six, Consumer Staples six of six, Health Care five of six, Consumer Discretionary four of six, Utilities four of six, Materials four of six, Financials three of six, Industrials three of six, Real Estate three of six, Technology two of seven, Communication Services one of six. Five of the eleven sector funds close above their own fifty-day: Energy, Health Care, Consumer Staples, Utilities and Materials. Financials and Consumer Discretionary crossed down. The index proxy closes 1.02% under its own, from 0.55% under.
Relative strength callouts. Micron beats its own sector fund by 172 points on the year and Advanced Micro Devices by 110, while Oracle trails it by 62. Marathon Petroleum beats Energy by 126 points and Phillips 66 by 64. Iron Mountain beats Real Estate by 27 points. The worst relative performers against their own sectors are Oracle at minus 62, NRG at minus 42, and Intuitive Surgical and Nike at minus 36 each.
One line on the consensus. The easy headline for Friday is that oil went up and stocks went down. That’s right as far as it goes. Our count adds that only eighteen of sixty-seven rose, and that the giants that led Thursday’s slide were among the few that bounced.
EARNINGS CALENDAR
Companies Reporting in the Next Week
| Company | Ticker | Sector | Date | Confirmation |
| Public Storage | PSA | Real Estate | Mon Oct 26 | Unverified , one feed only |
| Verizon | VZ | Communication Services | Mon Oct 26 | Reported this morning; two sources |
| American Tower | AMT | Real Estate | Tue Oct 27 | Two independent sources |
| Visa | V | Financials | Tue Oct 27 | Two independent sources |
| Coca-Cola | KO | Consumer Staples | Tue Oct 27 | Two independent sources |
| Sherwin-Williams | SHW | Materials | Tue Oct 27 | Two independent sources |
| Boeing | BA | Industrials | Tue Oct 27 | Unverified , one feed only |
| Ecolab | ECL | Materials | Tue Oct 27 | Unverified , one feed only |
| Freeport-McMoRan | FCX | Materials | Tue Oct 27 | Unverified , one feed only |
| UPS | UPS | Industrials | Tue Oct 27 | Unverified , one feed only |
| American Electric Power | AEP | Utilities | Wed Oct 28 | Unverified , one feed only |
| Equinix | EQIX | Real Estate | Wed Oct 28 | Unverified , one feed only |
| Alphabet | GOOGL | Communication Services | Wed Oct 28 | Unverified , one feed only |
| Microsoft | MSFT | Information Technology | Wed Oct 28 | Unverified , one feed only |
| Phillips 66 | PSX | Energy | Wed Oct 28 | Unverified , one feed only |
| Amazon | AMZN | Consumer Discretionary | Thu Oct 29 | Unverified , one feed only |
| Caterpillar | CAT | Industrials | Thu Oct 29 | Unverified , one feed only |
| Gilead | GILD | Health Care | Thu Oct 29 | Unverified , one feed only |
| Linde | LIN | Materials | Thu Oct 29 | Unverified , one feed only |
| Eli Lilly | LLY | Health Care | Thu Oct 29 | Unverified , one feed only |
| Mastercard | MA | Financials | Thu Oct 29 | Unverified , one feed only |
| Starbucks | SBUX | Consumer Discretionary | Thu Oct 29 | Unverified , one feed only |
| AbbVie | ABBV | Health Care | Fri Oct 30 | Unverified , one feed only |
| Chevron | CVX | Energy | Fri Oct 30 | Unverified , one feed only |
| Exxon Mobil | XOM | Energy | Fri Oct 30 | Unverified , one feed only |
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Twenty-five roster names fall inside the next seven calendar days. Verizon reported this morning, and its date and result agree across the company’s release and our feed. Four more dates agree across our earnings feed and an independent schedule. The rest come from our feed only. Apple follows next Monday, just outside the window. We don’t assert before-the-bell or after-the-bell timing for any of them.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Economic Reports in the Next Week
| Release | Period | Date | Time ET |
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | September | Mon Oct 26 | 8:30 |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | October | Mon Oct 26 | 10:30 |
| Durable Goods Orders | September | Tue Oct 27 | 8:30 |
| Case-Shiller Home Prices | August | Tue Oct 27 | 9:00 |
| Consumer Confidence | October | Tue Oct 27 | 10:00 |
| New Home Sales | September | Tue Oct 27 | 10:00 |
| Goods Trade Balance | September | Wed Oct 28 | 8:30 |
| EIA Crude Oil Inventories | Weekly | Wed Oct 28 | 10:30 |
| FOMC Rate Decision | n/a | Wed Oct 28 | 14:00 |
| GDP, Advance | Q3 | Thu Oct 29 | 8:30 |
| PCE Price Index | September | Thu Oct 29 | 8:30 |
| Initial Jobless Claims | Weekly | Thu Oct 29 | 8:30 |
| Employment Cost Index | Q3 | Fri Oct 30 | 8:30 |
| Chicago PMI | October | Fri Oct 30 | 9:45 |
Friday’s final University of Michigan sentiment reading came in at 48 against 46.3 expected, and one outlet calls it a five-month low. The October flash surveys of purchasing managers had manufacturing at 56.0 against 55.5 expected and services at 57.9 against 58.0. This week carries the Fed’s decision on Wednesday, with two outlets expecting no change, third-quarter growth and September’s spending-price index on Thursday, and the employment cost index on Friday. Dates, times, forecasts and Friday’s readings come from our economic calendar feed.
LEADERS AND LAGGARDS
YTD Leaders & Laggards
| Top 5 Dominators, Year to Date | Bottom 3 Dominators, Year to Date | ||
| Micron (MU) | +197.35% | NRG Energy (NRG) | -42.87% |
| Marathon Petroleum (MPC) | +180.76% | Nike (NKE) | -41.72% |
| Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) | +136.08% | Oracle (ORCL) | -36.11% |
| Phillips 66 (PSX) | +119.52% | ||
| ConocoPhillips (COP) | +61.09% |
Every figure is measured from the January 2 opening price, for every company and every fund. The index proxy sits at plus 10.83% on the same basis, down from plus 11.41% on Thursday.
NRG fell another 2.19%, and its holders now need a 75.0% gain to get back to January. Nike’s need is 71.6% and Oracle’s 56.5%. At the top, Micron rose 2.46% and pulled 16.6 points clear of Marathon Petroleum. None of these is a recommendation and none is a forecast.
FINAL WORD
Seven Yellows And A Phone Company Problem
The week starts with the board mostly undecided. Seven of eleven sectors are yellow, two are green and two are red, and the two greens are oil and landlords. Last week’s argument between the giants and everybody else didn’t settle on Friday. It got quieter, and most of the roster lost a little.
One word we use a lot is cushion. It’s the gap between a sector’s gauge today and that gauge’s own twenty-day average. A big cushion means the reading would have to fall a long way to change color; a small one means one bad day can flip it. Consumer Discretionary’s cushion is plus 16.12 this morning, the thinnest on the board, so it’s the light most likely to change next. Real Estate’s is plus 164.71, the widest.
The new test: if the Energy gauge closes below its own average on any completed session through Friday the thirtieth, Friday’s green was a one-day oil spike and not a trend, and we’ll say that here in those words. Friday’s Technology test, the gauge back above zero by Thursday, stands at minus 121.39. Energy at plus 107.94 is the newest green on the board, and the Sector Risk tab on the Golden Terminal will chart it against the S&P as a ratio.
FREE FOR READERS Chart any sector yourself. Every gauge in this issue lives on the Golden Terminal, where any sector can be charted against the S&P. |
FORWARD TO A FRIEND Somebody you know will hear this morning that oil spiked and stocks slipped on Friday. Both are on the tape. Our count adds that AT&T fell 7.96% on reports about SpaceX and cell towers, and that only eighteen of the sixty-seven big companies we track rose. If they’d find that useful, this issue forwards cleanly. |
ALSO FROM GOLDEN CYCLES RESEARCH Supercycle Trader The Daily Update tracks eleven sector verdicts on completed daily bars. Supercycle Trader works the longer arc underneath them: the multi-year cycles in commodities, credit and currency that decide which sectors get a decade and which get a quarter. A crude fund up 147.74% since January, a ten-year back at 5.00% and an Energy fund first of eleven at plus 55.03% are the kind of configuration that arc is built to read. |
Early Earnings Update
Twenty-five roster names report inside the next seven calendar days, from Verizon this morning and Public Storage today through Exxon, Chevron and AbbVie on Friday. Our desk keeps a separate counter on these names ahead of each print, and nothing in it has fired for this group.
FOR THE PROS
Validation Data for the Pros: RIAs, Active Traders, Compliance Officers
Every figure in this issue, checked against the market data it came from. Prices are Friday’s completed daily bars, Treasury yields come from the Treasury’s own daily curve, and where two sources disagree we show both and say which one the body follows.
Macro Cross-Check
| Item | The Daily Update said | The tape said | Verdict |
| Index proxy (SPY) | $759.97, -0.52%, +10.83% YTD | $759.97 against $763.96; +10.83% off the January 2 open of $685.71 | Match |
| Nasdaq proxy (QQQ) | $704.40, -0.01% | $704.40 against $704.47 | Match |
| Crude fund (USO) | +4.32% | $169.53 against $162.51. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia: two outlets. Crude above $117: one outlet, attributed | Tape match; cause two sources |
| Ten-year Treasury | 5.00% (+4 bp) on October 23 | Treasury par curve via the secondary feed: 10s 5.00, 2s 4.69, 30s 5.33, against 4.96, 4.65, 5.29 on October 22 | Single feed for the curve |
| AT&T | -7.96%; SpaceX cell-site talks | Tape $20.93 against $22.74. Two outlets report SpaceX talks with tower owners for Starlink phone service; one cites 80,000 sites | Match, two sources on the reports |
| Verizon | Beat; $1.31 against $1.27; record quarter | Company release (record quarter on postpaid phone and account additions); feed $1.31 against $1.27; one outlet: beat on earnings, missed on revenue | Match, two sources on the beat; revenue miss single |
| American Tower | +4.08% | $188.97 against $181.57 | Tape match; no cause asserted |
| Apple iPhone Duo launch | Two outlets | Two outlets report the iPhone Duo going on sale Friday | Match, two sources |
| Fed this week | Two outlets expect a hold | Two outlets; feed estimate unchanged at 4% | Match |
| Michigan sentiment | 48 against 46.3 | Calendar feed 48 against 46.3; one outlet: five-month low | Feed figure; color single |
| Companies higher | 18 of 67 | 18 advancers, 49 decliners | Match |
| Breadth above 50-day | 41 of 67, from 43 | 41 on Friday’s close; per-sector counts sum to 41; none crossed up, two down | Match, method below |
| Sector funds higher | 3 of 11 | XLE +2.60% best; XLP -1.92% worst | Match |
| 52-week highs, independent screen | n/a | An independent weekly screen of 52-week highs, as of Thursday’s close, includes twelve of our sixty-seven: Apple, Eli Lilly, Visa, Exxon, Mastercard, AbbVie, Chevron, Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Gilead, ConocoPhillips and EOG. No roster name appears on its 52-week-low list | Corroboration only; no verdict adjusted |
Material Misses Worth Knowing About
| Item | Note |
| Yield sources | The October 23 curve comes from the secondary feed only. |
| Single-source items | Crude above $117 and Verizon’s revenue miss each rest on one outlet and are attributed in the copy. The 80,000-site figure is one outlet’s; the SpaceX talks themselves are reported by two. Union Pacific’s and Newmont’s figures from Friday’s issue remain feed-only, and Philip Morris’s from Thursday’s issue remain unverified. |
| Report dates | American Tower, Visa, Coca-Cola and Sherwin-Williams agree across two sources, and Verizon reported as dated. All other dates in the table are from the feed only. |
| Earlier tests | Technology back above zero on any completed session through October 29 (set Friday): minus 121.39, not fired. Four or more yellows to red on one session through October 28: none went red on Friday, not fired. Breadth under thirty-five through October 27: forty-one, not fired. The October 17 test, fewer than thirty above the fifty-day on any completed session through October 23: the six sessions printed 33, 33, 39, 41, 43 and 41, never fired ; that test is closed. Saturday’s recap test, the Technology gauge closing above the Consumer Staples gauge through October 30: minus 121.39 against plus 112.10, not fired. |
| Breadth method | Fifty-day averages were rolled forward from the last stored values using the close added (October 23) and the close dropped (August 13). Control figures for the October 23 close: Amazon $255.6476, Southern $87.7306, Deere $658.6380 and Eli Lilly $1,186.6048. Sector-fund and index-proxy fifty-day averages were computed directly from fifty completed closes; the index proxy’s is $767.81. |
| CCI engine check | Every instrument’s prior-session reading was reproduced against the value published in Friday’s issue before use. Twelve of twelve reproduce exactly , and all twelve twenty-period averages reproduce exactly. Method: typical price is high plus low plus close over three, a twenty-bar simple average of that, the mean absolute deviation of typical price about that average over the same twenty bars, and the index is the distance from the average divided by fifteen thousandths of the deviation. Completed daily bars only. No premarket, futures or partial bar touched any reading. |
| Premarket size and spreads | Readings are 7:07 ET bid and ask midpoints. Real size: Nasdaq proxy 567,674 shares, crude fund 384,965, Verizon 356,579, long Treasury fund 262,266, AT&T 234,393, index proxy 181,712, volatility fund 148,497, gold fund 130,170, Energy 103,289, small-company proxy 65,152, chip fund 47,974 on a 79-cent spread, Utilities 27,158. Thin and indicative only: Consumer Staples 11,382 and Financials 8,729 on wide spreads, Technology 7,609, Communication Services 2,714 and Consumer Discretionary 1,364 shares. No premarket trade: Health Care, Materials and Real Estate at zero shares, and Industrials at 573 shares on a 77-cent spread. One reading runs against a light by more than three-quarters of a percent: Energy, minus 1.17% against its green, flagged in the copy. |
| ETF proxy caveat | Crude, gold, silver, copper, the dollar and broad commodities are quoted through exchange-traded proxies instead of the physical or futures contracts, which aren’t entitled on the current plan. The crude fund’s +147.74% is the fund’s return and not crude’s. |
| Golden Terminal note | Included this issue, tied to Energy as the newest green, as the final sentence of the Final Word. |
The Daily Update is published by Golden Cycles Research for informational and educational purposes only. It isn’t personalized advice and it isn’t a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Figures come from third-party data providers and government releases and can be revised. Past performance doesn’t predict future results.
The Daily Update · Golden Terminal · Vol. III, No. 222 · Monday, October 26, 2026