Vol. III · No. 216|Monday, October 19, 2026

Golden Terminal

Monday Trader’s Brief 30-Second Read · Cash Open 9:30 ET · Friday’s Completed Bars

BEFORE THE OPEN. Every light below was set on Friday’s completed bar. Premarket readings were taken at 7:09 ET from bid and ask quotes. Technology is quoted up 1.51% against its red light, which clears our three-quarters-of-a-percent line, so that contradiction is flagged below. Builder confidence lands at 10:00 ET, after this issue was built. Drift never changes a completed-bar verdict and it isn’t a forecast.

Six of our twelve gauges changed on Friday’s bar, four of them went down, and the gauge computed off the index itself sank deeper into red. Health Care, Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples each slipped from green to yellow. Communication Services fell two rungs, green to red, one session after it jumped two rungs the other way. Industrials and Energy both moved from yellow to green. The board reads six green, three yellow and two red, and Technology is red for a sixth straight session. The market-risk reading fell from minus 17.37 to minus 85.20 against a twenty-period average of plus 60.70, so that light stays red for a third session.

The index fell 1.11% and thirty-eight of our sixty-seven companies rose anyway. Six of the eleven sector funds closed higher, led by Energy at plus 2.52%, Utilities at plus 1.34% and Consumer Staples at plus 1.08%. Technology fell 3.02% and Communication Services 1.89%. The semiconductor proxy lost 3.41%, with Advanced Micro Devices down 5.95% and Micron down 5.63%. Two outlets put the S&P 500 down 1.09% at 7,659.44 and the Dow down 0.34% at 52,002. Over the full week the index proxy lost 1.97%.

Friday’s issue called Communication Services the thinnest green on the board and said most thin verdicts reverse. It reversed two rungs on the very next bar. The same issue said the breadth case had grown stronger while the weight case hadn’t budged. Friday took some of that back. Companies above their own fifty-day average slipped from thirty-five to thirty-three, and greens fell from eight to six. Our published test asked whether those eight greens would shrink to three or fewer inside five sessions while Technology stayed red, and session one leaves six. The other test, for the market-risk gauge to close back above its own average, moved further away: the gap widened from minus 78.85 to minus 145.90.

Import prices and factory output both came in hotter than forecast, and the bond market barely moved. September import prices rose 1.1% in the month against forecasts near 0.8%, and 8.1% from a year earlier, per our economic calendar feed and a market news service. Industrial production rose 0.7% against 0.4% expected, and capacity use climbed to 76.9%. On the Treasury’s curve the ten-year closed at 5.09%, down one basis point, and the two-year at 4.74%, down three. The long Treasury fund rose 0.10%.

The overnight tape is buying back the chips. The index proxy is quoted up 0.52% on 354,764 shares, against its red light but inside our three-quarters-of-a-percent line, and the rules say to name it. Technology is quoted up 1.51% on 17,033 shares, which runs against its red light by more than the line, and the semiconductor proxy is quoted up 2.60%. That’s the contradiction of the morning. It doesn’t move a light, because the light is built on Friday’s completed bar, and a premarket quote isn’t a close.

XLK · XLV · XLF · XLY · XLC · XLI · XLE · XLP · XLU · XLB · XLRE

Friday was the chipmakers’ worst day of a bad week, and most of the market spent it buying something else. The semiconductor proxy fell 3.41%. Advanced Micro Devices dropped 5.95%, Micron 5.63%, Oracle 4.64% and Broadcom 4.52%, and the Nasdaq proxy lost 2.50%. Meanwhile EOG Resources rose 3.53%, ConocoPhillips 3.37%, Philip Morris 2.65% and Chevron 2.59%. Thirty-eight of our sixty-seven companies closed higher on a day the index proxy fell 1.11%.

The selling had a center. CoreWeave, which rents out computing power to AI developers, fell roughly 12% on Friday, per two market outlets, and one of them tied the drop to the debt the company has taken on. It isn’t on our roster, but the worry traveled through the companies that sell into the AI build-out. Every chip company on our roster fell, and the funds that hold electricity, soft drinks and oil rose. Technology’s red light is now six sessions old, the longest current red streak on the board.

The 8.1% has an address. An import price is what an American company pays at the dock for goods made overseas, before it sets its own price. The retailer stocking shelves for the holidays, the repair shop ordering parts and the factory buying components pay it first, and September’s 1.1% monthly jump says they’re paying more right now. Factory output rose 0.7% in the same month, so the plants are busier while their inputs cost more. The bill lands at the dock this quarter, and on a price tag after that only if the customer will take it.

Before our conclusion, the strongest case against reading Friday as a break. One of the market readers we follow argued over the weekend that the stretch from now through the middle of next year has historically been the best part of the four-year market cycle, and that a market that held up through the weak summer months shouldn’t be judged on one bad week. The selling also skipped the largest profitable technology company on our roster. Apple rose 0.43% on Friday and sits 5.5% above its own fifty-day average. On that view, Friday cleared out the most heavily borrowed corner of the AI trade inside an uptrend. The seasonal averages are his figures and we haven’t tested them. Apple’s close is ours, and it backs him.

The board doesn’t dispute that Apple is fine. It says the damage is concentrated, and for the index the concentration is the problem. Technology’s reading fell to minus 243.50, the deepest of our twelve instruments, and the fund closed 3.40% below its own fifty-day average. Communication Services joined it in red and Consumer Discretionary slipped to yellow. By the published index weightings those three sectors carry a large share of the S&P 500, which is how the market-risk gauge fell 67.83 points on a day thirty-eight companies rose. Energy turned green and sits 7.40% above its own fifty-day, the strongest trend on the board, and Industrials turned green on a 105.18-point jump. Breadth is holding. The index isn’t.

Brad Hoppmann

Filed from Taintsville, Florida · Pop. < 1,000 ‘Taint in the Beltway, ‘taint in any backwards corrupt city, just a Florida man with a sharp pencil and a long memory of expensive lessons.

What To Watch Before The Open. Readings were taken at 7:09 ET from bid and ask quotes, before the 10:00 builder confidence report. The index proxy is quoted plus 0.52% on 354,764 shares, opposite its red light but inside the three-quarters-of-a-percent line, and the rules say to name it. The Nasdaq proxy is quoted plus 1.14% on 800,164 shares and the semiconductor proxy plus 2.60% on 92,286. Contradiction: Technology is quoted plus 1.51% on 17,033 shares, running against a red light by more than the three-quarters line. Consumer Discretionary is quoted plus 0.31%, Financials minus 0.18%, Health Care minus 0.35% and Energy minus 0.59%, all on thin but real size, and none of them clears the line against its own light. Utilities is quoted flat. Communication Services, Industrials, Consumer Staples and Real Estate show no premarket trade at all, and Materials traded 231 shares, so all five are written as no premarket trade. The volatility proxy is quoted minus 2.50%, and the long Treasury fund and gold are close to flat. Drift isn’t a forecast and it never moves a completed-bar verdict.

Six sector funds rose on a day the index fell more than 1%. By the published weightings, most of the index sits in the five that didn’t.

The Reader, Investor & Active Trader Tiers

The full sector-by-sector breakdown, rotation snapshot, and validation data continue below.

The Engines of the Modern Economy

Technology’s reading fell from minus 196.08 to minus 243.50 against a twenty-period average of plus 72.33, a red for a sixth straight session and the deepest reading on the board. The cushion widened to minus 315.83. The fund fell 3.02% to $183.47 and now closes 3.40% below its own fifty-day average. Six of its seven companies fell.

Apple was the one that rose, up 0.43% to $343.46. The chip companies took the worst of it: Advanced Micro Devices fell 5.95%, Micron 5.63%, Broadcom 4.52% and Nvidia 1.43%. Oracle fell 4.64% and Microsoft 1.93%. Advanced Micro Devices crossed below its own fifty-day average, which leaves two of seven above trend, Apple and Microsoft.

Oracle’s holders are down 35.06% on the year and need a 54.0% gain to get back to January, up from 46.8% on Thursday. Micron is still up 197.78% since January, but its average price over the last fifty sessions sits about 12% above Friday’s close, so the people who bought it in that stretch are the ones holding the loss.

Information Technology (XLK) closed Friday at $183.47, -3.02%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current -243.50, prior session -196.08, twenty-period average 72.33. Current below prior and below average, so the verdict is RED, held from RED on a move of minus 47.42 points. Cushion against its trailing average is minus 315.83, from minus 286.49.

Dominators, Friday close and session change: Apple $343.46 +0.43%, Nvidia $214.13 -1.43%, Microsoft $529.05 -1.93%, Broadcom $328.75 -4.52%, Oracle $128.23 -4.64%, Micron $878.84 -5.63%, Advanced Micro Devices $528.75 -5.95%. One advancer, six decliners, average -3.38%. Above the fifty-day: two of seven (Apple, Microsoft). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +25.98%, second of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($189.93) by 3.40%.

The Business of Staying Alive

Health Care’s reading fell from plus 299.82 to plus 226.69 against a twenty-period average of plus 39.45. Current below prior and above average is a mixed reading, so the light moves from green to yellow. The fund fell 0.27% to $176.71 and still sits 3.95% above its own fifty-day average.

Johnson & Johnson rose 0.90%, AbbVie 0.71% and Eli Lilly 0.43%. UnitedHealth fell 1.29%, Gilead 0.75% and Intuitive Surgical 0.27%. Five of six companies hold above their own trends, Johnson & Johnson the exception at 3.6% below.

Intuitive Surgical reports on Tuesday. Its holders are down 24.71% on the year and need a 32.8% gain to get back to January, while the stock sits 8.9% above its own fifty-day. A yellow after the highest reading on the board is a pause by our rule, and the sector still carries the third-strongest trend of the eleven.

Health Care (XLV) closed Friday at $176.71, -0.27%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 226.69, prior session 299.82, twenty-period average 39.45. Current below prior and above average, so the verdict is YELLOW, downgraded from GREEN on a move of minus 73.13 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 187.24, from plus 274.13.

Dominators, Friday close and session change: Johnson & Johnson $255.56 +0.90%, AbbVie $285.42 +0.71%, Eli Lilly $1,257.03 +0.43%, Intuitive Surgical $426.70 -0.27%, Gilead $156.19 -0.75%, UnitedHealth $401.43 -1.29%. Three advancers, three decliners, average -0.05%. Above the fifty-day: five of six (AbbVie, Eli Lilly, Intuitive Surgical, Gilead, UnitedHealth). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +14.10%, third of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($170.00) by 3.95%.

The Lenders, The Clearers And The Underwriters

Financials’ reading rose from plus 70.10 to plus 129.57 against a twenty-period average of minus 72.57. Current above prior and above average holds the light at green. The fund rose 0.45% to $55.52 and sits 1.35% below its own fifty-day average.

JPMorgan rose 1.25% and Berkshire Hathaway 1.21%, then Visa 0.72% and Mastercard 0.18%. Goldman Sachs fell 1.12% and Bank of America 0.91%, and Bank of America now sits 13.2% below its own fifty-day, the deepest trend deficit in the sector.

Three of six hold above trend: Berkshire, Visa and Mastercard. Bank of America holders are down 6.90% on the year and need a 7.4% gain to get back to January. A green on a fund still below its own trend is a bounce until it lasts.

Financials (XLF) closed Friday at $55.52, +0.45%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 129.57, prior session 70.10, twenty-period average -72.57. Current above prior and above average, so the verdict is GREEN, held from GREEN on a move of plus 59.47 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 202.14, from plus 157.80.

Dominators, Friday close and session change: JPMorgan $339.72 +1.25%, Berkshire Hathaway $532.02 +1.21%, Visa $402.61 +0.72%, Mastercard $617.42 +0.18%, Bank of America $51.23 -0.91%, Goldman Sachs $881.26 -1.12%. Four advancers, two decliners, average +0.22%. Above the fifty-day: three of six (Berkshire Hathaway, Visa, Mastercard). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +1.26%, eighth of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($56.28) by 1.35%.

Where The Paycheck Goes After The Bills

Consumer Discretionary’s reading eased from plus 119.05 to plus 111.68 against a twenty-period average of minus 16.82. Current below prior and above average is a yellow, so the light gives back Thursday’s upgrade after one session. The fund fell 0.84% to $112.46, sits 1.23% below its own fifty-day average and is tenth of eleven on the year at minus 6.34%.

Tesla fell 2.13% to $354.72 and crossed below its own fifty-day, which leaves zero of six companies above trend. Amazon fell 1.87%. Starbucks rose 0.66%, Home Depot 0.45% and McDonald’s 0.19%, and Nike slipped 0.03%.

Tesla reports on Wednesday. Its holders are down 22.52% on the year and need a 29.1% gain to get back to January. Nike’s holders are down 41.99%, still the worst mark on our roster, and they need 72.4%.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) closed Friday at $112.46, -0.84%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 111.68, prior session 119.05, twenty-period average -16.82. Current below prior and above average, so the verdict is YELLOW, downgraded from GREEN on a move of minus 7.37 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 128.50, from plus 146.59.

Dominators, Friday close and session change: Starbucks $97.52 +0.66%, Home Depot $309.63 +0.45%, McDonald’s $242.97 +0.19%, Nike $37.13 -0.03%, Amazon $250.00 -1.87%, Tesla $354.72 -2.13%. Three advancers, three decliners, average -0.46%. Above the fifty-day: zero of six. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: -6.34%, tenth of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($113.87) by 1.23%.

The Pipes And The Programming

Communication Services’ reading fell from minus 3.88 to minus 66.78 against a twenty-period average of minus 29.75. Current below prior and below average is a red, so the light drops from green to red in one session. The fund fell 1.89% to $110.32, crossed back below its own fifty-day average and is now last of eleven on the year at minus 6.63%.

Meta fell 3.72% to $709.33, Netflix 2.86% and Alphabet 2.47%, and Alphabet crossed below its own fifty-day. Verizon rose 0.88%. Two of six hold above trend, Meta and Disney.

This sector has now changed color on six straight bars, so we hold any verdict here loosely until it survives two sessions. Netflix reports on Tuesday and Meta on Wednesday. Netflix holders are down 25.07% on the year and need a 33.5% gain to get back to January.

Communication Services (XLC) closed Friday at $110.32, -1.89%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current -66.78, prior session -3.88, twenty-period average -29.75. Current below prior and below average, so the verdict is RED, downgraded two rungs from GREEN on a move of minus 62.90 points. Cushion against its trailing average is minus 37.03, from plus 26.67.

Dominators, Friday close and session change: Verizon $44.79 +0.88%, Disney $110.59 -0.08%, AT&T $23.44 -0.26%, Alphabet $340.59 -2.47%, Netflix $70.53 -2.86%, Meta $709.33 -3.72%. One advancer, five decliners, average -1.42%. Above the fifty-day: two of six (Disney, Meta). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: -6.63%, eleventh of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($111.90) by 1.41%.

The Things That Move Other Things

Industrials’ reading jumped from minus 158.51 to minus 53.33 against a twenty-period average of minus 69.45. Current above prior and above average is a green by the rule, so the light moves from yellow to green, its second upgrade in two sessions. The fund slipped 0.08% to $167.76 and sits 3.65% below its own fifty-day average, still the deepest trend deficit of the eleven.

Our five-session test on this sector asks for a positive reading with at least two of six companies back above their own fifty-day. Session three printed minus 53.33 with one company above trend, Union Pacific. Two sessions remain. Boeing rose 0.78%, Honeywell 0.43% and Union Pacific 0.11%, while Deere fell 1.35%, Caterpillar 0.66% and UPS 0.36%.

A green on a day the fund slipped comes from how the gauge works: it measures the day’s high, low and close against their own twenty-session average, not the change from Thursday’s close. Honeywell and Union Pacific report on Thursday. Boeing’s holders are down 12.81% on the year and need a 14.7% gain to get back to January.

Industrials (XLI) closed Friday at $167.76, -0.08%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current -53.33, prior session -158.51, twenty-period average -69.45. Current above prior and above average, so the verdict is GREEN, upgraded from YELLOW on a move of plus 105.18 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 16.12, from minus 86.96.

Dominators, Friday close and session change: Boeing $190.21 +0.78%, Honeywell $211.41 +0.43%, Union Pacific $289.04 +0.11%, UPS $97.48 -0.36%, Caterpillar $730.76 -0.66%, Deere $641.86 -1.35%. Three advancers, three decliners, average -0.18%. Above the fifty-day: one of six (Union Pacific). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +7.80%, sixth of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($174.12) by 3.65%.

The Molecules Everything Else Runs On

Energy’s reading rose from plus 132.10 to plus 144.98 against a twenty-period average of minus 0.37. Current above prior and above average is a green, so the light moves from yellow to green after two sessions. The fund rose 2.52% to $68.24, the best of the eleven sector funds on Friday, and it’s first on the year at plus 52.60%.

EOG Resources led at plus 3.53%, then ConocoPhillips at 3.37%, Chevron 2.59% and Exxon 2.46%. The refiners lagged, with Phillips 66 up 1.37% and Marathon Petroleum up 0.24%. All six sit above their own fifty-day averages, and Marathon Petroleum sits 20.8% above.

The crude proxy rose 2.83%. On Thursday the barrel rose and the producers fell. On Friday both rose together, the producers more than the refiners, which fits a higher barrel: it’s revenue to a driller and a cost to a refiner.

Energy (XLE) closed Friday at $68.24, +2.52%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 144.98, prior session 132.10, twenty-period average -0.37. Current above prior and above average, so the verdict is GREEN, upgraded from YELLOW on a move of plus 12.88 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 145.35, from plus 138.70.

Dominators, Friday close and session change: EOG Resources $158.01 +3.53%, ConocoPhillips $146.51 +3.37%, Chevron $224.99 +2.59%, Exxon Mobil $178.98 +2.46%, Phillips 66 $293.17 +1.37%, Marathon Petroleum $478.07 +0.24%. Six advancers, no decliners, average +2.26%. Above the fifty-day: six of six. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +52.60%, first of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($63.54) by 7.40%.

The Aisles Nobody Skips

Consumer Staples’ reading eased from plus 247.71 to plus 203.65 against a twenty-period average of minus 19.51. Current below prior and above average is a yellow, so the light slips from green. The fund rose 1.08% to $87.62 and sits 4.20% above its own fifty-day average, the second-strongest trend on the board.

All six rose. Philip Morris gained 2.65% to $205.20, PepsiCo 2.42% and Coca-Cola 2.07%, then Procter & Gamble 1.45%, Costco 1.13% and Walmart 0.80%. Five of six hold above trend, PepsiCo the exception at 2.2% below.

A yellow on a 1.08% up day is the gauge saying Friday’s climb, measured against the sector’s own recent range, was smaller than Thursday’s. Philip Morris reports on Wednesday and Procter & Gamble on Thursday. PepsiCo holders are down 8.19% on the year and need an 8.9% gain to get back to January.

Consumer Staples (XLP) closed Friday at $87.62, +1.08%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 203.65, prior session 247.71, twenty-period average -19.51. Current below prior and above average, so the verdict is YELLOW, downgraded from GREEN on a move of minus 44.06 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 223.16, from plus 283.13.

Dominators, Friday close and session change: Philip Morris $205.20 +2.65%, PepsiCo $131.49 +2.42%, Coca-Cola $93.90 +2.07%, Procter & Gamble $159.35 +1.45%, Costco $989.11 +1.13%, Walmart $118.81 +0.80%. Six advancers, no decliners, average +1.75%. Above the fifty-day: five of six (Philip Morris, Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Costco, Walmart). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +12.75%, fourth of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($84.09) by 4.20%.

The Bill That Arrives Regardless

Utilities’ reading rose from plus 106.49 to plus 121.52 against a twenty-period average of minus 36.68. Current above prior and above average holds the light at green. The fund rose 1.34% to $42.21 and closes 0.45% above its own fifty-day average, a cross back up from 0.93% below.

The regulated utilities led. American Electric Power rose 2.29%, Southern 2.24% and Duke 2.18%, and Duke crossed back above its fifty-day. NextEra rose 1.06% and NRG 0.87%, while Vistra fell 1.39%. Four of six hold above trend.

NRG’s holders are down 35.79% on the year and need a 55.7% gain to get back to January. NextEra reports this week, but our two schedules disagree on Wednesday or Thursday, so we don’t print a day.

Utilities (XLU) closed Friday at $42.21, +1.34%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 121.52, prior session 106.49, twenty-period average -36.68. Current above prior and above average, so the verdict is GREEN, held from GREEN on a move of plus 15.03 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 158.20, from plus 156.89.

Dominators, Friday close and session change: American Electric Power $127.14 +2.29%, Southern $91.18 +2.24%, Duke Energy $121.47 +2.18%, NextEra $79.80 +1.06%, NRG $103.75 +0.87%, Vistra $152.02 -1.39%. Five advancers, one decliner, average +1.21%. Above the fifty-day: four of six (American Electric Power, Southern, Duke Energy, Vistra). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: -1.58%, ninth of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($42.02) by 0.45%.

The Raw Material Under Everything

Materials’ reading rose from plus 135.73 to plus 206.33 against a twenty-period average of minus 54.21. Current above prior and above average holds the light at green, and the cushion of 260.54 points is the widest positive gap on the board. The fund rose 0.71% to $50.92 and sits 0.49% below its own fifty-day average.

Newmont rose 2.43%, Linde 1.06% and Air Products 1.01%. Freeport-McMoRan fell 0.74% with the copper proxy up 0.13%, and Ecolab fell 0.66% and Sherwin-Williams 0.51%. Four of six hold above trend.

Newmont reports on Thursday, and it still sits 2.6% below its own fifty-day even after Friday’s gain. The gold proxy slipped 0.18%.

Materials (XLB) closed Friday at $50.92, +0.71%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 206.33, prior session 135.73, twenty-period average -54.21. Current above prior and above average, so the verdict is GREEN, held from GREEN on a move of plus 70.60 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 260.54, from plus 206.20.

Dominators, Friday close and session change: Newmont $118.60 +2.43%, Linde $498.43 +1.06%, Air Products $299.59 +1.01%, Sherwin-Williams $335.20 -0.51%, Ecolab $288.89 -0.66%, Freeport-McMoRan $69.54 -0.74%. Three advancers, three decliners, average +0.43%. Above the fifty-day: four of six (Linde, Air Products, Sherwin-Williams, Ecolab). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +11.86%, fifth of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($51.17) by 0.49%.

The Ground Rent On The Whole Economy

Real Estate’s reading rose from plus 62.38 to plus 95.80 against a twenty-period average of minus 80.76. Current above prior and above average holds the light at green. The fund rose 0.40% to $42.16 and sits 2.21% below its own fifty-day average.

American Tower rose 2.16%, Public Storage 1.01% and Simon Property 1.01%. Equinix fell 1.03%, Prologis 0.94% and Iron Mountain 0.15%. American Tower is the only one above trend, at 6.8% above.

The two data-center landlords, Equinix and Iron Mountain, fell on the day the AI trade sold off, and Iron Mountain still leads the sector on the year at plus 35.56%. Prologis holders are down 1.56% on the year after two down sessions that followed its quarterly beat.

Real Estate (XLRE) closed Friday at $42.16, +0.40%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 95.80, prior session 62.38, twenty-period average -80.76. Current above prior and above average, so the verdict is GREEN, held from GREEN on a move of plus 33.42 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 176.56, from plus 154.41.

Dominators, Friday close and session change: American Tower $185.27 +2.16%, Public Storage $298.31 +1.01%, Simon Property $205.44 +1.01%, Iron Mountain $112.51 -0.15%, Prologis $125.75 -0.94%, Equinix $985.98 -1.03%. Three advancers, three decliners, average +0.34%. Above the fifty-day: one of six (American Tower). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +4.51%, seventh of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($43.11) by 2.21%.

Leaders and laggards in the roster. Micron leads at plus 197.78%, then Marathon Petroleum at plus 193.57%, Advanced Micro Devices at plus 141.55%, Phillips 66 at plus 127.27% and ConocoPhillips at plus 56.51%. The bottom three are Nike at minus 41.99%, NRG at minus 35.79% and Oracle at minus 35.06%. Micron’s lead over Marathon Petroleum shrank to 4.2 points from 22.7 on Thursday.

Above and below the fifty-day. Thirty-three of the sixty-seven companies close above their own fifty-day average, down from thirty-five. Duke crossed up; Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet and Tesla crossed down. By sector: Energy six of six, Consumer Staples five of six, Health Care five of six, Materials four of six, Utilities four of six, Financials three of six, Technology two of seven, Communication Services two of six, Industrials one of six, Real Estate one of six, Consumer Discretionary zero of six. Four of the eleven sector funds close above their own fifty-day average: Energy, Consumer Staples, Health Care and Utilities, which crossed up as Communication Services crossed down. The index proxy closes 0.68% below its own, a cross down from 0.41% above.

Relative strength callouts. Micron beats its own sector fund by 172 points on the year and Advanced Micro Devices by 116, while Oracle trails it by 61. Marathon Petroleum beats Energy by 141 points and Phillips 66 by 75. Iron Mountain beats Real Estate by 31 points. The worst relative performers against their own sectors are Oracle at minus 61, Intuitive Surgical at minus 39, Nike at minus 36 and NRG at minus 34.

One line on the consensus. The easy headline for Friday is that the AI trade broke. Our count says thirty-eight of sixty-seven companies rose and six of eleven sector funds closed higher. What broke was the most crowded corner of the index, and in a cap-weighted index the most crowded corner sets the number.

Thirteen roster names sit inside the next seven calendar days. Ten of the dates agree across our earnings feed and an independent schedule, and Meta’s matches the company’s own announcement. NextEra and Verizon carry conflicting dates across two sources, so both show the range. Mastercard appears on one schedule only and is labeled unverified. Report timing relative to the opening bell isn’t asserted for any name.

This week leans on housing. Builder confidence this morning is forecast at 32, unchanged from September, and Tuesday brings September housing starts and permits. Thursday’s jobless claims are forecast near 200,000, and Friday’s flash surveys of purchasing managers close the week. The Fed’s rate decision follows on October 28. All dates, times and forecasts come from the economic calendar feed.

All figures computed directly off the January 2 opening price for every company and every fund, which is the method our rules specify. The index proxy sits at plus 11.30% on the same basis, from plus 12.55% on Thursday.

Oracle took the worst of it at the bottom of the table. Its holders now need a 54.0% gain to reach January, up from 46.8% one session earlier, while Nike’s climb held near 72.4% and NRG’s eased to 55.7%. At the top, two of the five leaders are chip companies that fell more than 5% on Friday, and the gap between first and second place shrank to about four points. None of these is a recommendation in either direction and none is a forecast.

The week ended with the same split it started with, only louder. Weigh the market by size and Friday was a bad day: the index proxy down 1.11%, the Nasdaq proxy down 2.50%, and the market-risk gauge 145.90 points below its own average. Count it by company and Friday was a mixed day that leaned up: thirty-eight of sixty-seven companies higher, six of eleven sector funds higher and six sectors green.

The weekend gave the other side its best argument, that the calendar now turns in the bulls’ favor, and the overnight tape is quoting the chip fund up 2.60% this morning. We can’t test a seasonal average from here. We can test the board. So far the selling has stayed inside Technology and Communication Services, and the thing to watch is whether it leaks into the sectors that absorbed it.

What would prove this read wrong is checkable this week. If four or more of our six green sectors downgrade on any single completed session through Friday the twenty-third, the damage spread and Friday was the start of something broader, and we’ll say so here in those words. Technology at minus 243.50 and Materials at plus 206.33 now sit almost 450 points apart, and the Sector Risk tab on the Golden Terminal will chart either one against the S&P as a single line.

Somebody you know will hear this morning that tech stocks got hit on Friday. They did: the chip fund fell 3.41% and the Nasdaq proxy 2.50%. Our count also says thirty-eight of the sixty-seven big companies we track rose the same day, led by oil producers, tobacco, soft drinks and utilities. If they’d find that split useful, this issue forwards cleanly.

The Daily Update tracks eleven sector verdicts on completed daily bars. Supercycle Trader works the longer arc underneath them: the multi-year cycles in commodities, credit and currency that decide which sectors get a decade and which get a quarter. Energy first on the year at plus 52.60% while Communication Services sits last at minus 6.63%, a crude proxy up 136.38% since January against a gold proxy down 4.88%, and import prices up 8.1% in a year, are the kind of configuration that arc is built to read.

Thirteen roster names report inside the next seven calendar days, starting with Intuitive Surgical and Netflix on Tuesday and Meta, Tesla, AT&T and Philip Morris on Wednesday. Two dates conflict across our sources and one comes from a single schedule. Our desk keeps a separate alignment counter on these names ahead of each print, and nothing in it has fired for this group.

Every figure in this issue, checked against the market data it came from. Prices are Friday’s completed daily bars, Treasury yields come from the Treasury’s own daily curve, and where two sources disagree we show both and say which one the body follows.

The Daily Update is published by Golden Terminal for informational and educational purposes only. It isn’t personalized advice and it isn’t a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Figures come from third-party data providers and government releases and can be revised. Past performance doesn’t predict future results.

The Daily Update · Golden Terminal · Vol. III, No. 216 · Monday, October 19, 2026