Vol. III · No. 211|Tuesday, October 13, 2026

Golden Terminal

Tuesday Trader’s Brief 30-Second Read · Cash Open 9:30 ET · Monday’s Completed Bars

BEFORE THE OPEN. Premarket readings taken at 7:22 ET on last-trade prints, and most of them are thin enough to be indicative only. The bond market was closed Monday for Columbus Day while the equity market stayed open, so the ten-year above is Friday’s print. Drift never changes a completed-bar verdict and it isn’t a forecast. Every sector light below is stamped to Monday’s close.

On the third of October we named the number that would tell us the market had broadened, and Monday’s close printed it. The count of our sixty-seven companies trading above their own fifty-day average reached thirty-four. Thirty-four was the level we set, written down in advance so a reader could check it against the tape instead of taking our word for it. The sequence ran sixteen, twenty-three, twenty-nine, twenty-eight, thirty, thirty-three, and now thirty-four: participation has roughly doubled in six sessions while the index went nowhere at all. The narrower read we carried through the first half of the month is retired, on the evidence, this morning. Amazon is the thirty-fourth name, closing $259.53 against a fifty-day average of $258.85, which is a quarter of a percent of daylight and still counts.

Two of our eleven sector verdicts changed and the board now reads eight green, two yellow and one red. Consumer Discretionary gave back the green it carried into the weekend and went to yellow on a reading of plus 109.43 against a prior of plus 125.18. Communication Services came up off red to yellow at minus 42.35, repairing forty points in a session. Technology held red for a second day at plus 30.82 against a twenty-period average of plus 107.63, which is the widest gap between a current reading and its own average anywhere on the board. Nine verdicts held.

The funds haven’t yet confirmed what their own companies are doing. Only four of the eleven sector funds close above their own fifty-day average: Energy, Technology, Health Care and Consumer Staples. Five of the eight green lights belong to funds that don’t, and Industrials carries a green this morning with none of its six companies above theirs. Participation widens at the company level before it shows up in the funds, so that order is normal, and the funds are the confirmation still outstanding. The gauge computed off the index itself reads plus 109.11 against a prior of plus 115.23 and a twenty-period average of plus 37.61, which is a yellow by the rule.

The index closed flat and almost nothing underneath it was flat. Eight of the eleven sector funds rose, forty-nine of our sixty-seven companies rose, and the semiconductor proxy fell 2.05%. Energy led at plus 1.43%, Staples added 1.17% and Communication Services 0.97%, while Technology fell 1.22%. Micron fell 3.88%, Oracle 2.84%, Advanced Micro Devices 2.28% and Broadcom 1.88%. Meta rose 3.38%, Verizon 2.71%, ConocoPhillips 2.58% and Prologis 2.30%. An index that finishes six hundredths of a percent lower on a day like that is holding two crowds of roughly the same size walking in opposite directions.

Four roster names were on today’s earnings calendar and the week’s two inflation prints land Wednesday and Thursday. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth all report today, confirmed on two independent week-ahead feeds before the open, with Bank of America on Wednesday. September CPI prints Wednesday at 8:30 ET, and September PPI and September retail sales both land Thursday at 8:30 ET. Our own inflation feed still ends in August, where headline ran 3.35% against the year and core ran 2.45%, so the September number is unknown to us until Wednesday morning.

XLK · XLV · XLF · XLY · XLC · XLI · XLE · XLP · XLU · XLB · XLRE

The count was thirty-four. That’s the level we named on the third of October as the one that would tell us the market had broadened, and on Monday’s completed bar thirty-four of our sixty-seven companies closed above their own fifty-day average. The index that contains them closed six hundredths of a percent lower, which is about as close to unchanged as a session gets. Underneath that flat number, eight of eleven sector funds rose and forty-nine of sixty-seven companies rose. The breadth count printed its signal on Monday’s bar while Technology held red for a second session and the gauge computed off the index slipped back to yellow.

What we’ve argued since the start of October is that the advance was narrowing: that a handful of large names were carrying an index while the median company underneath it went sideways or worse. Sixteen of sixty-seven above the fifty-day was the evidence for that, and it was good evidence at the time. Thirty-four is a different market. Half the roster now trades above its own trend line, and the half that got there did it in six sessions without the index doing much of anything at all, which is the signature of money moving across the board instead of leaving it.

The case against reading that as a healthy broadening is a real argument and it belongs here in the form its own holders would use. Every rotation out of the growth complex in this cycle has lasted days, not quarters, and each one has ended with the same handful of names back in front. The index sits close to its own annual high. Breadth widening while the index holds is the textbook description of a bull market getting broader, not one getting tired, and a count that climbs from sixteen to thirty-four in six sessions is a market voting for more participation. On that reading, Technology’s red light is one sector digesting a hard week in semiconductors, Monday was a rest, and a broadening tape is the thing you wait for rather than the thing you worry about.

Two things stop us taking that reading whole. The first is that the breadth arrived without the funds. Only four of the eleven sector funds close above their own fifty-day average, and five of the eight green lights belong to funds that don’t. Industrials carries a green light this morning while not one of its six companies holds its own fifty-day. A board reading green on funds trading under their own trend is measuring a decline that stopped getting worse, which is a different event from an advance starting.

The second is the long end, and it’s the piece the market commentary around this rotation keeps leaving out. The thirty-year sits at 5.60% and the ten-year at 5.24%, both of them Friday prints because the bond market was shut on Monday. The argument for rotating into dividend-paying incumbents gets harder every morning a government bond pays more for doing less work. That competition never shows up in a breadth count, and it shows up in the prices eventually.

The long end is also where the day’s biggest number lands, and it lands on somebody specific. The twenty-year Treasury fund on our proxy list is down 10.70% this year while the index proxy is up 13.47%. In a retirement account built the ordinary way, the half that was supposed to be the safe half is the half that lost money, and it has now done that for long enough that it isn’t one quarter’s bad luck. Nobody moved into long bonds in January expecting to underwrite the equity side’s good year. The bill for a 5.60% long bond gets paid by whoever owns the lower-coupon one bought before it, and a lot of those were bought on advice to be careful.

So the position this morning is that the narrow-advance read we carried through early October has been retired by its own test, and what stands in its place isn’t yet an advance we can measure. Thirty-four of sixty-seven is a real improvement in participation. Four of eleven funds above their fifty-day is a market that hasn’t confirmed it. Technology decides which of those two sentences ends up describing October.

Brad Hoppmann

Filed from Taintsville, Florida · Pop. < 1,000 ‘Taint in the Beltway, ‘taint in any backwards corrupt city, just a Florida man with a sharp pencil and a long memory of expensive lessons.

What To Watch Before The Open. The readings here are 7:22 ET last-trade prints and most carry small enough size to be indicative only. The index proxy showed minus 0.11% and the Nasdaq proxy minus 0.62%. Technology printed minus 0.87%, running with its red light instead of against it. Energy printed plus 0.41%, Staples plus 0.77%, Materials plus 0.87% and Real Estate plus 0.69%, each of them running with a green light. Nothing on the board crossed the three-quarters-of-a-percent line that would set premarket drift against a completed-bar verdict. Among this morning’s reporters, UnitedHealth printed plus 2.24%, Goldman Sachs minus 1.23%, JPMorgan minus 2.68% and Johnson & Johnson minus 3.01% on 580 shares. On JPMorgan the early coverage doesn’t agree with itself: one national outlet leads on a rare earnings miss while two others lead on record quarterly profit and the strongest trading revenue the bank has printed. We have a conflict across feeds and no second agreeing source on any single figure, so no number from that release appears anywhere in this issue. Drift isn’t a forecast and it never moves a completed-bar verdict.

We wrote the number down on the third of October. The market printed it on the twelfth.

The Reader, Investor & Active Trader Tiers

The full sector-by-sector breakdown, rotation snapshot, and validation data continue below.

The Engines of the Modern Economy

Friday’s problem with Technology was that the light read red while the fund went up. Monday removed that complaint. The fund fell 1.22% to $196.36 and the reading dropped again, from plus 62.81 to plus 30.82 against a twenty-period average of plus 107.63. Current below prior and below average is a red by the same arithmetic that produced eight greens elsewhere on the board, and the gap between this reading and its own average is now 76.8 points, the widest on the board by a distance.

The selling was concentrated in the names that led the year. Micron fell 3.88% to $989.04 and is still up 235.13% on the year. Oracle fell 2.84%, Advanced Micro Devices 2.28% and Broadcom 1.88%. Apple rose 1.29% and Microsoft 1.14%, which left two advancers against five decliners and a sector average of minus 1.39%. The semiconductor proxy fell 2.05% on the same session, so this wasn’t a broad technology sale; it was the chip complex and the names levered to it.

Five of seven Technology companies still close above their own fifty-day average, with Broadcom and Oracle below, and the fund itself holds above its fifty-day at $189.47. Technology is one of only four sector funds in the eleven that can say that. So the sector carrying the only red light on the board is also one of the four strongest sector funds on a trend measure, which is the same disagreement we flagged on Friday and it got wider rather than narrower. The light measures the rate of change and the average measures the level, and on Technology those two have been pointing opposite ways for a week.

Information Technology (XLK) closed Monday at $196.36, -1.22%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 30.82, prior session 62.81, twenty-period average 107.63. Current below prior and below average, so the verdict is RED, held from RED on a move of minus 31.99 points. Cushion against its trailing average is minus 76.81, from minus 44.82 on Friday.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Apple $340.97 +1.29%, Microsoft $541.15 +1.14%, Nvidia $226.32 -1.29%, Broadcom $354.73 -1.88%, Advanced Micro Devices $594.24 -2.28%, Oracle $137.39 -2.84%, Micron $989.04 -3.88%. Two advancers, five decliners, average minus 1.39%. Above the fifty-day: five of seven, with Broadcom and Oracle below. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +34.83%, second of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($189.47).

The Business of Staying Alive

Health Care’s reading climbed to plus 157.21 from plus 74.53, against a twenty-period average of minus 13.68, and that’s the highest current reading of any instrument we track this morning. The fund rose 0.69% to $171.99 and closes above its fifty-day average at $169.11, one of only four sector funds that does. Four of its six companies rose. This is the second session of a green that arrived last week as a two-rung jump straight from red, and the cushion over its own average has widened to 170.9 points.

The timing matters more than usual, because two of the six report today. Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth are both on this morning’s calendar, confirmed on two independent week-ahead feeds. Neither had reported at the time this letter’s tape was pulled, and no figure from either release appears anywhere in this issue. Both close below their own fifty-day average going in, Johnson & Johnson at $263.73 against $265.48 and UnitedHealth at $378.52 against a wider gap, which means the sector carrying the board’s best reading is doing it with its two reporters underneath their own trend lines.

AbbVie led the sector at plus 1.68% to $281.12 and is up 22.90% on the year. Gilead fell 0.49% and UnitedHealth fell 0.21% into its print. Intuitive Surgical rose 0.87% to $427.64 and remains the sector’s deepest hole on the year at minus 24.55%. Four of six close above their fifty-day, with Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth the two below.

Health Care (XLV) closed Monday at $171.99, +0.69%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 157.21, prior session 74.53, twenty-period average -13.68. Current above prior and above average, so the verdict is GREEN, held from GREEN on a move of plus 82.68 points. Cushion over its trailing average is plus 170.89.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: AbbVie $281.12 +1.68%, Johnson & Johnson $263.73 +0.88%, Intuitive Surgical $427.64 +0.87%, Eli Lilly $1,182.62 +0.28%, UnitedHealth $378.52 -0.21%, Gilead $150.43 -0.49%. Four advancers, two decliners, average plus 0.50%. Above the fifty-day: four of six, with Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth below. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +11.05%, third of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($169.11).

Where the Money Actually Sleeps

Financials held green on a reading of plus 29.08 against a prior of minus 13.25, the first time this sector’s current reading has been positive in the window we can see, and its twenty-period average still sits down at minus 119.23. That gives it the second-largest cushion on the board at 148.3 points. The fund rose 0.58% to $55.05 and five of its six companies rose. It still closes below its own fifty-day average at $56.50.

Three of the six report inside two days, and all three are banks. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs were on today’s calendar and Bank of America is on Wednesday’s, each confirmed on two independent week-ahead feeds. All three close below their own fifty-day average going into the prints, while the three payment and insurance names in the sector all close above theirs. That split has held for a week and it’s the cleanest internal divide in any sector on the board.

Mastercard led at plus 1.01% to $595.09 and Visa added 0.99%. JPMorgan rose 0.39% to $334.30 and Berkshire Hathaway 0.38%. Goldman Sachs was the sector’s only decliner at minus 0.15% and sits furthest below its fifty-day of the six. Bank of America rose 0.48% and is the only company in the sector down on the year, at minus 0.82%.

Financials (XLF) closed Monday at $55.05, +0.58%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 29.08, prior session -13.25, twenty-period average -119.23. Current above prior and above average, so the verdict is GREEN, held from GREEN on a move of plus 42.33 points. Cushion over its trailing average is plus 148.31.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Mastercard $595.09 +1.01%, Visa $389.27 +0.99%, Bank of America $54.58 +0.48%, JPMorgan $334.30 +0.39%, Berkshire Hathaway $517.60 +0.38%, Goldman Sachs $893.95 -0.15%. Five advancers, one decliner, average plus 0.52%. Above the fifty-day: three of six, with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America below. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +0.40%, eighth of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($56.50).

What Americans Buy When They Feel Like It

Consumer Discretionary went to yellow on Monday’s bar, down from the green it took on Friday. The reading fell from plus 125.18 to plus 109.43 while its twenty-period average sits at minus 60.19, so current is below prior and above average, and mixed is a yellow by the rule. The fund fell 0.51% to $112.27, three of six companies rose, and the sector remains last of eleven on the year at minus 6.50%. Only two of its six close above their own fifty-day average.

Nike rose 1.84% to $35.35 on Monday and is down 44.77% on the year, the deepest hole on our roster of sixty-seven. A reader holding it from January is looking at a position that needs an 81% gain to get back to where it started, and Monday’s 1.84% isn’t the beginning of that. An independent value screen published this week put Nike in its failed column rather than its bargain column, on the reasoning that a compressed multiple on falling earnings is a different thing from a compressed multiple on steady ones. We’ve no position to take on that either way, and our own board has nothing to say about Nike beyond the fact that it closes below its fifty-day and has all year.

Starbucks led the sector at plus 1.69% and Amazon fell 1.11% to $259.53, which still leaves Amazon a quarter of a percent above its own fifty-day and makes it the thirty-fourth name in the breadth count that opened this issue. Tesla fell 1.22% and Home Depot was flat at minus 0.04%. McDonald’s added 0.18% and is down 22.81% on the year.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) closed Monday at $112.27, -0.51%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 109.43, prior session 125.18, twenty-period average -60.19. Current below prior and above average, so the verdict is YELLOW, downgraded from GREEN on a move of minus 15.75 points.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Nike $35.35 +1.84%, Starbucks $92.28 +1.69%, McDonald’s $235.65 +0.18%, Home Depot $290.62 -0.04%, Amazon $259.53 -1.11%, Tesla $378.03 -1.22%. Three advancers, three decliners, average plus 0.22%. Above the fifty-day: two of six, Amazon and Tesla. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: -6.50%, eleventh of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($114.34).

The Pipes and the Programming

Communication Services was the only sector on the board where all six companies rose. The fund added 0.97% to $111.45 and the reading repaired from minus 82.72 to minus 42.35, which lifts the verdict from red to yellow: current above prior but still below a twenty-period average of minus 15.57. That’s the single largest one-session repair anywhere on the board at 40.4 points, and it undoes most of what Friday’s spectrum headline did to this sector.

Verizon rose 2.71% to $42.78 and AT&T rose 1.40% to $22.49, two sessions after the pair fell 10.14% and 10.82% on a single afternoon. A bounce of that size after a fall of that size recovers a small fraction of it, and both names remain well below their own fifty-day averages, Verizon by roughly eleven percent. The sector’s own fund still closes under its fifty-day at $111.89 and still ranks tenth of eleven on the year.

Meta led the whole roster’s advancers at plus 3.38% to $742.96 and is up 12.11% on the year. Alphabet added 0.30%, Disney 0.41% and Netflix 0.44%. Netflix is down 24.99% on the year and closes below its fifty-day. Three of the six hold above their fifty-day: Meta, Alphabet and Disney.

Communication Services (XLC) closed Monday at $111.45, +0.97%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current -42.35, prior session -82.72, twenty-period average -15.57. Current above prior and below average, so the verdict is YELLOW, upgraded from RED on a move of plus 40.37 points.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Meta $742.96 +3.38%, Verizon $42.78 +2.71%, AT&T $22.49 +1.40%, Netflix $70.61 +0.44%, Disney $108.49 +0.41%, Alphabet $352.72 +0.30%. Six advancers, no decliners, average plus 1.44%. Above the fifty-day: three of six, Meta, Alphabet and Disney. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: -5.68%, tenth of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($111.89).

The Things That Move Other Things

Industrials held green on a reading that crossed zero, from minus 43.53 to plus 3.10, against a twenty-period average of minus 66.65. The fund was the flattest instrument on the board at minus 0.06% to $169.15, matching the index to the hundredth. Four of its six companies rose. And not one of the six closes above its own fifty-day average, which makes this the clearest example on the board of what a green light does and doesn’t mean.

The verdict measures whether the decline is slowing, and in Industrials it plainly is: the reading has traveled roughly 110 points off its own floor. The level is a separate question and the level says every company in the sector is still under its fifty-day, and so is the fund, at $175.50 against a close of $169.15. We said on Friday that this was a board improving faster than the market underneath it. Industrials is where that sentence is most literally true this morning.

Deere led at plus 1.88% to $632.61 and is up 35.75% on the year. Union Pacific rose 1.16%, Honeywell 0.92% and United Parcel Service 0.81%. Caterpillar slipped 0.14% and Boeing 0.46%. Boeing is down 13.13% on the year and sits furthest below its own fifty-day of the six.

Industrials (XLI) closed Monday at $169.15, -0.06%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 3.10, prior session -43.53, twenty-period average -66.65. Current above prior and above average, so the verdict is GREEN, held from GREEN on a move of plus 46.63 points. Cushion over its trailing average is plus 69.75.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Deere $632.61 +1.88%, Union Pacific $281.57 +1.16%, Honeywell $209.64 +0.92%, United Parcel Service $95.34 +0.81%, Caterpillar $799.37 -0.14%, Boeing $189.50 -0.46%. Four advancers, two decliners, average plus 0.70%. Above the fifty-day: none of six. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +8.69%, fourth of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($175.50).

The Molecules Everything Else Runs On

Energy led the board for the session and leads it for the year. The fund rose 1.43% to $66.01, the reading climbed from plus 117.71 to plus 151.55 against a twenty-period average of minus 24.83, and all six of its companies rose. All six also close above their own fifty-day average, and so does the fund, at $62.80. No other sector on the board can say both of those things, and the gap between Energy and second place on the year is now 12.8 percentage points.

The move has a macro frame behind it. Our crude proxy rose 1.91% to $151.03 and is up 120.71% on a January 2 open basis, while the broad commodity proxy is up 48.86%. Those are exchange-traded proxies rather than the physical contracts, which the §5 caveat in our rules requires us to say plainly, and a front-month futures fund in a backwardated market will outrun spot crude rather than track it. The direction is the signal; the magnitude belongs to the fund, not the barrel.

ConocoPhillips led at plus 2.58% to $137.56 and Exxon Mobil added 1.90%. EOG Resources rose 1.59% and Chevron 1.42%. Marathon Petroleum, up 181.74% on the year and second on our whole roster, added 0.83%, and Phillips 66 rose 1.18%. The refiners remain the two largest year-to-date gains in the sector by a wide margin.

Energy (XLE) closed Monday at $66.01, +1.43%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 151.55, prior session 117.71, twenty-period average -24.83. Current above prior and above average, so the verdict is GREEN, held from GREEN on a move of plus 33.84 points. Cushion over its trailing average is plus 176.38.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: ConocoPhillips $137.56 +2.58%, Exxon Mobil $172.15 +1.90%, EOG Resources $150.51 +1.59%, Chevron $215.00 +1.42%, Phillips 66 $281.47 +1.18%, Marathon Petroleum $458.81 +0.83%. Six advancers, no decliners, average plus 1.58%. Above the fifty-day: six of six. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +47.61%, first of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($62.80).

The Aisles Nobody Skips

Consumer Staples held green on a reading of plus 135.13 against a prior of plus 74.37 and a twenty-period average of minus 80.94. The distance between the current reading and its own average is 216.1 points, the widest cushion anywhere on the board this morning. The fund rose 1.17% to $84.41, closes above its fifty-day at $84.01, and all six of its companies rose.

A staples fund outperforming the index by more than a percent on a flat session is the plainest description of Monday’s rotation available. Coca-Cola led at plus 1.98% to $89.79 and is up 28.55% on the year, the best year of any company in the sector. Walmart rose 1.55%, Costco 1.32% and Procter & Gamble 1.30%. Philip Morris added 0.40% and is up 26.05%.

PepsiCo rose 0.56% to $126.68 and is the sector’s only company below its own fifty-day average and its only one down on the year, at minus 11.55%. It reported on the eighth of October at $2.34 against a $2.29 consensus with revenue above estimate, taken from the earnings calendar’s own non-null actual fields, which is the hard confirmation signal our rules ask for. That beat hasn’t pulled the stock back above its trend line in the three sessions since.

Consumer Staples (XLP) closed Monday at $84.41, +1.17%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 135.13, prior session 74.37, twenty-period average -80.94. Current above prior and above average, so the verdict is GREEN, held from GREEN on a move of plus 60.76 points. Cushion over its trailing average is plus 216.07, the widest on the board.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Coca-Cola $89.79 +1.98%, Walmart $113.08 +1.55%, Costco $959.44 +1.32%, Procter & Gamble $153.20 +1.30%, PepsiCo $126.68 +0.56%, Philip Morris $202.00 +0.40%. Six advancers, no decliners, average plus 1.19%. Above the fifty-day: five of six, with PepsiCo below. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +8.62%, fifth of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($84.01).

The Bill That Arrives Regardless

Utilities held green at plus 88.75 against a prior of plus 66.17 and a twenty-period average of minus 90.75, a cushion of 179.5 points. The fund rose 0.53% to $41.63 but still closes below its own fifty-day average at $42.18, and only two of its six companies hold above theirs. The sector sits ninth of eleven on the year at minus 2.94%.

The split inside the sector was clean. The four regulated names all rose: NextEra 1.46%, American Electric Power 1.16%, Southern 1.01% and Duke 0.89%. The two merchant power names both fell: Vistra 2.07% and NRG 1.48%. That’s the same divide that has run through this sector all year, and it maps onto the data-center power trade more closely than onto anything a rate case decides.

NRG closed at $106.37 and is down 34.17% on the year, second-deepest on our roster. Vistra remains the sector’s only large year-to-date gain story turned flat, down 3.51% after a far larger run earlier in the year, and it’s one of the two names here above its fifty-day. American Electric Power is the other.

Utilities (XLU) closed Monday at $41.63, +0.53%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 88.75, prior session 66.17, twenty-period average -90.75. Current above prior and above average, so the verdict is GREEN, held from GREEN on a move of plus 22.58 points. Cushion over its trailing average is plus 179.50.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: NextEra $78.51 +1.46%, American Electric Power $124.23 +1.16%, Southern $87.04 +1.01%, Duke $117.69 +0.89%, NRG $106.37 -1.48%, Vistra $158.13 -2.07%. Four advancers, two decliners, average plus 0.16%. Above the fifty-day: two of six, American Electric Power and Vistra. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: -2.94%, ninth of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($42.18).

The Raw Material Under Everything

Materials held green with a current reading of minus 23.88 against a prior of minus 33.68 and a twenty-period average of minus 96.71. Current above prior and above average makes it a green, and it’s the only green on the board whose current reading is still negative. The cushion is 72.8 points, the second-narrowest of the eight greens. The fund was effectively unchanged at plus 0.02% to $49.44 and closes below its fifty-day at $51.31.

The precious-metals names were the drag. Our gold proxy fell 0.63% and the silver proxy 0.78%, and Newmont fell 0.59% with them. Freeport-McMoRan fell 0.54% despite the copper proxy rising 0.79%, and it remains the sector’s best year at plus 41.69%. Gold on our proxy basis is down 4.85% for the year and silver down 19.24%, which is an unusual pairing to sit alongside a crude proxy up more than a hundred percent.

Air Products led at plus 0.93%, Ecolab added 0.88%, Linde 0.75% and Sherwin-Williams 0.27%. Three of six hold above their fifty-day: Freeport-McMoRan, Linde and Ecolab. Sherwin-Williams is the only company in the sector down on the year, at minus 0.94%.

Materials (XLB) closed Monday at $49.44, +0.02%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current -23.88, prior session -33.68, twenty-period average -96.71. Current above prior and above average, so the verdict is GREEN, held from GREEN on a move of plus 9.80 points. Cushion over its trailing average is plus 72.83.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Air Products $283.87 +0.93%, Ecolab $284.30 +0.88%, Linde $487.35 +0.75%, Sherwin-Williams $320.21 +0.27%, Freeport-McMoRan $73.29 -0.54%, Newmont $117.15 -0.59%. Four advancers, two decliners, average plus 0.28%. Above the fifty-day: three of six, Freeport-McMoRan, Linde and Ecolab. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +8.61%, sixth of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($51.31).

The Ground Rent of the Economy

Real Estate held green and its current reading crossed above zero, from minus 24.12 to plus 7.79, against a twenty-period average of minus 114.55. The fund rose 0.75% to $41.92 and five of its six companies rose. It closes below its own fifty-day at $43.37, and just one of its six companies holds above its own: American Tower. That makes Real Estate the thinnest sector on the board by the trend measure, with Industrials the only one thinner at zero of six.

Prologis led at plus 2.30% to $132.47, which is the kind of session that gets attention three days before a company reports. Prologis was on our carried calendar for Thursday, but that date came from last week’s pull and this morning’s forward calendar feed returned historical rows only, so we can’t re-confirm it and we aren’t asserting it. Treat Thursday as unverified rather than scheduled.

Simon Property rose 1.00%, Equinix 0.64%, Iron Mountain 0.52% and American Tower 0.18%. Public Storage was the sector’s only decliner at minus 0.34%. Iron Mountain leads the sector on the year at plus 38.67% and Equinix follows at plus 34.78%, which puts two of the eleven best year-to-date performers on our entire roster inside the sector with the weakest trend readings.

Real Estate (XLRE) closed Monday at $41.92, +0.75%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 7.79, prior session -24.12, twenty-period average -114.55. Current above prior and above average, so the verdict is GREEN, held from GREEN on a move of plus 31.91 points. Cushion over its trailing average is plus 122.34.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Prologis $132.47 +2.30%, Simon Property $201.41 +1.00%, Equinix $1,032.60 +0.64%, Iron Mountain $115.10 +0.52%, American Tower $182.56 +0.18%, Public Storage $288.88 -0.34%. Five advancers, one decliner, average plus 0.72%. Above the fifty-day: one of six, American Tower. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +3.92%, seventh of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($43.37).

Leaders. Energy took the session and owns the year, 12.8 points clear of Technology. Staples and Communication Services were the next two best sessions, which puts a defensive sector and a beaten-up sector either side of a flat index. Forty-nine of our sixty-seven companies rose, up from forty-five on Friday.

Laggards. Technology and Consumer Discretionary were the only two sector funds to fall, and they hold the only non-green verdicts along with Communication Services. Consumer Discretionary is last on the year at minus 6.50% and Communication Services tenth at minus 5.68%.

Above the fifty-day. Thirty-four of sixty-seven companies, up from thirty-three, and the exact line this desk published on the third of October as the level that would retire its narrowing read. Only four of the eleven sector funds manage the same: Energy, Technology, Health Care and Consumer Staples. Industrials holds a green verdict with zero of six companies above their own fifty-day, and Real Estate holds one with one of six.

Relative strength. Energy at plus 47.61% and Technology at plus 34.83% are the only two sector funds beating the index proxy at plus 13.47%. Nine of eleven trail it. Inside Energy, Marathon Petroleum at plus 181.74% and Phillips 66 at plus 118.19% are running more than seventy points ahead of their own sector fund.

The consensus line. The talking point this morning is that the market went nowhere on Monday. The tape says forty-nine of sixty-seven companies rose, eight of eleven sector funds rose, the chip proxy fell 2.05%, and the index landed six hundredths of a percent lower because those two things were nearly the same size.

Four roster names report today and all four are large. Outside our roster, Wells Fargo is also on today’s calendar, Morgan Stanley on Wednesday’s and Taiwan Semiconductor on Thursday’s. Report timing relative to the opening bell isn’t published for any of the six above and isn’t asserted here. The forward earnings calendar feed returned historical rows only this morning, so every date in this table comes from two independent week-ahead sources rather than from the calendar itself, and the Prologis line couldn’t be re-confirmed at all.

Wednesday’s CPI is the first of the two that matters to this board, because the long end is the thing standing between a broadening tape and a confirmed one. Our own inflation feed ends in August, where headline ran 3.35% against the year and core ran 2.45%. Headline above core is an energy story, and with the crude proxy up 120.71% on the year that relationship is the one to watch in Wednesday’s detail. The economic calendar feed also returned historical rows only this morning, so these five dates come from two independent published schedules.

All figures computed directly off the January 2 opening price for every company and every fund, which is the method our rules specify. The index proxy sits at plus 13.47% on the same basis.

The bottom three are somebody’s money and a ranking table hides what that means, so here’s the arithmetic of the hole. Nike at minus 44.77% needs a gain of 81.1% to get back to where it opened the year. NRG at minus 34.17% needs 51.9%. Oracle at minus 30.42% needs 43.7% to recover the year, and 134.7% to recover its own fifty-two-week high of $322.54, which it still sits 57.4% beneath. All three rose on Monday, Nike by 1.84%, which recovers about four hundredths of what the year took. None of those three is a recommendation in either direction and none of them is a forecast. A position that has halved needs a double to get level, and the number of sessions that takes isn’t something this board measures or claims to.

Three numbers describe Monday. The index fell six hundredths of a percent. Forty-nine of our sixty-seven companies rose. And the count of those companies trading above their own fifty-day average reached thirty-four, which is the number this desk wrote down on the third of October as the level that would retire its own narrowing read.

We publish those levels in advance because a test written after the fact isn’t a test. This one ran six sessions and the market answered it. The read that a thin group of large names was carrying everything else no longer describes the roster: half of it now trades above its own trend, and it got there while the index did nothing at all. The number was on the page before the market moved, which is the only way a reader can tell the difference between a call and a story told afterwards.

What stands in its place is narrower and less satisfying. Participation broadened; confirmation hasn’t followed. Four of eleven sector funds close above their own fifty-day average, five of the eight green lights sit on funds that don’t, and Industrials carries a green with zero of six companies above theirs. Underneath all of it the thirty-year pays 5.60% and the ten-year 5.24%, which is the bid every dividend-paying incumbent in this rotation has to beat, and it’s the piece the broader commentary around this move keeps omitting.

What would prove this morning’s read wrong is one number by Friday’s close. If the count of our companies above their fifty-day average falls back under thirty for two consecutive sessions while Technology’s reading is still below its own twenty-period average, then Monday’s thirty-four was a single-session artifact, the narrowing read we just retired was right all along, and the honest move is to reinstate it on this page instead of letting it drift quietly back. Energy leads every sector on the year at plus 47.61% while Consumer Discretionary sits last at minus 6.50%, and the Sector Risk tab on the Golden Terminal will chart either of those against the other as a single ratio line.

Somebody you know will read this morning that the market was quiet on Monday. On Monday’s completed bars the index moved six hundredths of a percent, forty-nine of our sixty-seven companies rose, the chip proxy fell 2.05%, Energy added 1.43%, and the count of companies above their own fifty-day average reached the exact level this letter published two weeks ago as the signal that the advance had broadened. If they’d find that useful, this issue forwards cleanly.

The Daily Update tracks eleven sector verdicts on completed daily bars. Supercycle Trader works the longer arc underneath them: the multi-year cycles in commodities, credit and currency that decide which sectors get a decade and which get a quarter. Energy first on the year at plus 47.61% while Consumer Discretionary sits last at minus 6.50%, a crude proxy up 120.71% since January against a gold proxy down 4.85% on the same basis, a thirty-year Treasury paying 5.60%, and a dollar proxy up 7.57%, are the kind of configuration that arc is built to read.

Five roster names report inside the next seven calendar days: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth today, and Bank of America tomorrow. A sixth, Prologis, was on last week’s calendar for Thursday and we couldn’t re-confirm the date this morning. Our desk runs a separate alignment counter on those names ahead of each print, and the counter needs the same configuration on two consecutive completed sessions before it says anything at all. It’s logged on our side and nothing in it has fired for this group.

Every directional and magnitude claim above, checked against the live tape. No “trust me, bro”: these are the numbers that pay for your subscription.

The Daily Update is published by Golden Terminal for informational and educational purposes only. It isn’t personalized advice and it isn’t a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Figures come from third-party data providers and can be revised. Past performance doesn’t predict future results.

The Daily Update · Golden Terminal · Vol. III, No. 211 · Tuesday, October 13, 2026