Vol. III · No. 219|Thursday, October 22, 2026

Golden Terminal

Thursday Trader’s Brief 30-Second Read · Cash Open 9:30 ET · Wednesday’s Completed Bars

BEFORE THE OPEN. Every light below comes from Wednesday’s completed bar. We took the premarket quotes at 7:04 ET. The index proxy is quoted down 0.98%, the Nasdaq proxy down 1.65% and the chip fund down 3.02%. Crude’s fund is up 1.50% and the volatility fund up 3.65%. Financials is quoted down 0.53% against its green, inside our line. Nothing here changes a light. Weekly jobless claims land at 8:30 ET, after this issue was built.

Five sectors lost their green on Wednesday, and one went the other way two rungs at once. Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, Materials and Real Estate slipped from green to yellow, and Communication Services fell back to red. Industrials jumped from red straight to green. Financials and Utilities held green. The board reads three green, seven yellow and one red, with six changes: five down, one up.

Our Industrials call lasted one bar. On Tuesday we wrote that Industrials was the one sector the broadening skipped, after it failed the five-session test we’d set it on October 14. Wednesday’s bar turned it green. The test still counts as failed, because it asked for a gauge reading above zero by Tuesday and Wednesday’s reading is minus 24.60. Both bars are in the receipts below, so anybody can check the call and the miss.

The giants had the day and the crowd split. The index proxy gained 0.53%, the Nasdaq proxy 1.05% and the chip fund 1.89%. One outlet has the Nasdaq Composite up 1.05%, which our proxy matches, and two credit SpaceX with reviving the AI trade. Underneath, thirty-three of our sixty-seven companies rose and thirty-four fell. Seven of the eleven sector funds closed higher.

The count above trend still rose. Forty-one of the sixty-seven now close above their own fifty-day average, up from thirty-nine. The market-risk gauge, the one we compute off the index itself, jumped to plus 18.22 from minus 33.30. It’s above zero, but still 23.51 points under its own average, so it stays yellow.

Overnight, the AI trade is getting a second look. Two outlets have Meta lifting its spending plan to about $145 billion, and Tesla is quoted down 3.46% after its report. The chip fund is quoted down 3.02%, the Nasdaq proxy down 1.65% and the index proxy down 0.98%. Two outlets put Brent above $110 after new attacks on Saudi energy sites, and our crude fund is quoted up 1.50%. None of it sets a light. Thursday’s completed bar will.

XLK · XLV · XLF · XLY · XLC · XLI · XLE · XLP · XLU · XLB · XLRE

Wednesday belonged to the giants again. The chip fund rose 1.89%, Advanced Micro Devices 3.36% and Nvidia 2.54%, and the Nasdaq proxy gained 1.05%. The index proxy added 0.53%. Then we counted the companies, and it was a coin toss: thirty-three of our sixty-seven up, thirty-four down.

The sector board took it worse than the index did. Five sectors lost a rung and one gained, and the one that gained is Industrials, the sector we’d just written off after it missed our test. Its gauge is still below zero at minus 24.60, so the test stays failed and the deadline doesn’t move. The color says we were early, and that’s on the record.

Before our conclusion, the strongest case that all of this is fine. The biggest companies in the world just said they’re spending more. Meta lifted its plan to about $145 billion, by two accounts, on revenue our feed and one outlet put at $64.6 billion. Forty-one of our sixty-seven sit above trend, two more than Tuesday, on a day the crowd split. The market-risk gauge is above zero. On that reading, the sector downgrades are money rotating inside a bull market, and this morning’s quotes are a reaction to one company’s budget.

Somebody pays for $145 billion of servers and power. Mostly it’s Meta’s own owners, in cash that won’t come back to them as buybacks while the build runs. That’s the bill the overnight quote is arguing about.

We think the bull case has the trend count right and the timing wrong. Five downgrades against one upgrade, on a day the index rose, looks like a market leaning on its biggest names again, the way it did on Monday. Seven of our eleven sectors now sit at yellow, and the overnight quotes have the chips giving back all of Wednesday’s gain. The gauge we compute off the index is above zero but under its own average. The board wants Thursday’s bar before it calls anything.

Brad Hoppmann

Filed from Taintsville, Florida · Pop. < 1,000 ‘Taint in the Beltway, ‘taint in any backwards corrupt city, just a Florida man with a sharp pencil and a long memory of expensive lessons.

What To Watch Before The Open. Quotes from 7:04 ET. The index proxy is quoted down 0.98% on 457,844 shares, the Nasdaq proxy down 1.65% on 1.18 million and the chip fund down 3.02% on 146,871. Technology is quoted down 2.01% on 23,046 shares and Financials down 0.53% on 48,466. Energy is up 1.00% and Consumer Staples up 0.83%. Health Care is up 0.34% and Utilities flat, both on thin size, and the Communication Services quote is too thin to lean on. None runs against a light by more than our three-quarters-of-a-percent line. Materials and Real Estate show no premarket trade, and the Industrials and Consumer Discretionary quotes are too thin to use. Tesla is quoted down 3.46% and Meta down 1.76% after their reports. The long Treasury fund is up 0.74%, gold down 1.44% and the volatility fund up 3.65%. A premarket quote isn’t a forecast and it doesn’t move a light.

Monday the giants carried the index while the crowd sat out. Tuesday the crowd showed up. Wednesday the giants came back, and the crowd called it a draw.

The Reader, Investor & Active Trader Tiers

The full sector-by-sector breakdown, rotation snapshot, and validation data continue below.

The Engines of the Modern Economy

The chips did the lifting. The fund rose 1.67% to $188.54, and the gauge climbed to minus 99.38 from minus 164.92. It’s rising and still 117.22 points under its own average of plus 17.84, so the light stays yellow. The fund closes 0.73% under its fifty-day.

Advanced Micro Devices rose 3.36% and crossed back above its fifty-day, Nvidia gained 2.54%, Micron 1.96%, Apple 1.32% and Broadcom 1.03%. Microsoft added 0.20% and Oracle fell 1.53%. Three of seven now sit above trend: Advanced Micro Devices, Apple and Microsoft.

The test from Tuesday’s issue, red on any completed session through Friday, is two sessions in and hasn’t come close. The overnight quote is another story: the fund is quoted down 2.01% and the chip fund down 3.02%. Oracle’s holders need a 52.9% gain to get back to January, and Broadcom’s need 4.4%.

Information Technology (XLK) closed Wednesday at $188.54, +1.67%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current -99.38, prior session -164.92, twenty-period average 17.84. Current above prior and below average, so the verdict is YELLOW, held from YELLOW on a move of plus 65.54 points. Cushion against its trailing average is minus 117.22, from minus 197.41.

Dominators, Wednesday close and session change: Advanced Micro Devices $552.72 +3.36%, Nvidia $221.97 +2.54%, Micron $913.67 +1.96%, Apple $343.99 +1.32%, Broadcom $337.80 +1.03%, Microsoft $532.95 +0.20%, Oracle $129.13 -1.53%. Six advancers, one decliner, average +1.27%. Above the fifty-day: three of seven (Advanced Micro Devices, Apple, Microsoft). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +29.47%, second of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($189.92) by 0.73%.

The Business of Staying Alive

A record on Tuesday, a yellow on Wednesday. The fund gave back 0.49% to $178.94, and the gauge eased to plus 147.56 from plus 188.91. It’s still 80.40 points above its average of plus 67.16; yellow here means it stopped rising, and that’s all it means so far. The fund sits 4.86% above its fifty-day, second only to Energy.

All six fell. Intuitive Surgical lost 2.26%, Gilead 1.88%, AbbVie 1.48% and Eli Lilly 1.01%, while UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson gave up less than two-thirds of a percent each. Five of six still sit above trend, with Johnson & Johnson the exception.

Intuitive Surgical’s report cost it 2.26% on the day, well short of the 6.6% the early quote implied. Its holders need a 32.4% gain to get back to January. Eli Lilly and Gilead report next Thursday per our feed, just outside this week’s window.

Health Care (XLV) closed Wednesday at $178.94, -0.49%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 147.56, prior session 188.91, twenty-period average 67.16. Current below prior and above average, so the verdict is YELLOW, downgraded from GREEN on a move of minus 41.35 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 80.40, from plus 129.47.

Dominators, Wednesday close and session change: UnitedHealth $417.00 -0.54%, Johnson & Johnson $257.78 -0.61%, Eli Lilly $1,270.75 -1.01%, AbbVie $284.80 -1.48%, Gilead $153.57 -1.88%, Intuitive Surgical $428.12 -2.26%. No advancers, six decliners, average -1.30%. Above the fifty-day: five of six (UnitedHealth, Eli Lilly, AbbVie, Gilead, Intuitive Surgical). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +15.54%, third of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($170.64) by 4.86%.

The Lenders, The Clearers And The Underwriters

Still green, and a touch stronger. The gauge rose to plus 152.50 from plus 137.18, far above its average of minus 29.31. The fund gained 0.57% to $56.04, which leaves it 0.19% under its fifty-day, within spitting distance.

Goldman Sachs led at plus 2.25%. Mastercard, Visa and Bank of America each gained about a third of a percent, and JPMorgan and Berkshire finished a hair lower. Berkshire, Mastercard and Visa hold above trend.

The fund is quoted down 0.53% this morning against its green, inside our line, so it doesn’t count against the light. Bank of America’s holders need an 8.4% gain to get back to January. Visa reports next Tuesday, and Mastercard’s date is in dispute: one schedule had it today, and our feed now says next Thursday.

Financials (XLF) closed Wednesday at $56.04, +0.57%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 152.50, prior session 137.18, twenty-period average -29.31. Current above prior and above average, so the verdict is GREEN, held from GREEN on a move of plus 15.32 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 181.81, from plus 182.89.

Dominators, Wednesday close and session change: Goldman Sachs $904.72 +2.25%, Mastercard $622.62 +0.35%, Visa $407.85 +0.31%, Bank of America $50.78 +0.28%, JPMorgan $335.19 -0.02%, Berkshire Hathaway $538.99 -0.15%. Four advancers, two decliners, average +0.50%. Above the fifty-day: three of six (Mastercard, Visa, Berkshire Hathaway). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +2.21%, eighth of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($56.15) by 0.19%.

Where The Paycheck Goes After The Bills

Tesla rose 3.41% ahead of its report, and it wasn’t enough. The fund edged up 0.03% to $115.53, but the gauge fell to plus 167.28 from plus 198.33. That’s still well above its average of plus 19.13, so the step down is to yellow. The fund sits 1.70% above its fifty-day.

Outside Tesla the names drifted lower: Amazon down 0.10%, McDonald’s 0.11%, Starbucks 0.29%, Home Depot 0.31% and Nike 0.92%. Four of six hold above trend: Tesla, Amazon, Home Depot and Nike.

Tesla reported after the close. Two outlets say it beat on earnings, our feed has revenue about in line, and the outlets disagree on whether its spending plan went up or down, so we’re leaving that part out. The stock is quoted down 3.46% this morning. Its holders need an 18.5% gain to get back to January, McDonald’s need 24.0% and Nike’s 70.5%.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) closed Wednesday at $115.53, +0.03%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 167.28, prior session 198.33, twenty-period average 19.13. Current below prior and above average, so the verdict is YELLOW, downgraded from GREEN on a move of minus 31.05 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 148.15, from plus 191.98.

Dominators, Wednesday close and session change: Tesla $386.47 +3.41%, Amazon $262.37 -0.10%, McDonald’s $246.25 -0.11%, Starbucks $99.08 -0.29%, Home Depot $314.14 -0.31%, Nike $37.53 -0.92%. One advancer, five decliners, average +0.28%. Above the fifty-day: four of six (Tesla, Amazon, Home Depot, Nike). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: -3.79%, tenth of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($113.60) by 1.70%.

The Pipes And The Programming

One day out of red, then back in. The gauge fell to minus 198.71 from minus 119.85, under its average of minus 64.50, so it’s red. The fund lost 1.11% to $108.97, sits 2.53% under its fifty-day and is still last of eleven on the year at minus 7.78%.

The phone companies did the damage. AT&T fell 6.45% the day it reported, Netflix lost another 5.31% after its own report, Verizon fell 2.20% and Alphabet 1.62%. Meta and Disney edged up, and they’re the two above trend.

AT&T is the stock people hold to collect a check and not think about it. Our feed had it beating on earnings, $0.65 against $0.60, and it still fell 6.45%; its holders are now down 11.62% on the year and need a 13.1% gain to get back to January. The quarterly check doesn’t come with a floor under the price. Netflix’s holders need 44.7%.

Meta reported after the close. Our feed and one outlet put revenue at $64.6 billion, and two outlets say it raised its spending plan to about $145 billion. Two say the stock rose after hours on the news; by 7:04 the quote had turned to minus 1.76%. Verizon’s report date is in dispute between today and next Monday.

Communication Services (XLC) closed Wednesday at $108.97, -1.11%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current -198.71, prior session -119.85, twenty-period average -64.50. Current below prior and below average, so the verdict is RED, downgraded from YELLOW on a move of minus 78.86 points. Cushion against its trailing average is minus 134.21, from minus 65.98.

Dominators, Wednesday close and session change: Meta $697.52 +0.47%, Disney $111.83 +0.14%, Alphabet $334.76 -1.62%, Verizon $43.56 -2.20%, Netflix $65.04 -5.31%, AT&T $21.91 -6.45%. Two advancers, four decliners, average -2.49%. Above the fifty-day: two of six (Meta, Disney). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: -7.78%, eleventh of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($111.80) by 2.53%.

The Things That Move Other Things

Two rungs in one day. The gauge jumped to minus 24.60 from minus 130.21, which puts it above its own average of minus 72.01. That’s green, even with the reading still below zero. The fund gained 0.91% to $168.31 but sits 2.74% under its fifty-day, the weakest trend of the eleven, so this is a bounce until it lasts.

Caterpillar led at plus 2.06%, then UPS 1.07% and Boeing 0.95%. Deere, Honeywell and Union Pacific all gained. UPS crossed back above its fifty-day, so three of six now sit above trend: UPS, Honeywell and Union Pacific.

On Tuesday’s bar this sector failed the five-session test we set on October 14, which asked for a positive gauge reading and at least two of six above trend. We wrote that Industrials was the one sector the broadening skipped. One bar later it’s green. The test stays failed, because even Wednesday’s minus 24.60 wouldn’t have passed it.

Honeywell reported this morning. Our feed has $2.27 a share against $2.17 expected, and the company’s filing is out. Union Pacific is due today, and Boeing and UPS next Tuesday per our feed. Boeing’s holders need a 13.5% gain to get back to January.

Industrials (XLI) closed Wednesday at $168.31, +0.91%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current -24.60, prior session -130.21, twenty-period average -72.01. Current above prior and above average, so the verdict is GREEN, upgraded two rungs from RED on a move of plus 105.61 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 47.41, from minus 56.45.

Dominators, Wednesday close and session change: Caterpillar $740.21 +2.06%, UPS $99.57 +1.07%, Boeing $192.28 +0.95%, Deere $636.54 +0.69%, Honeywell $214.73 +0.66%, Union Pacific $287.87 +0.09%. Six advancers, no decliners, average +0.92%. Above the fifty-day: three of six (UPS, Honeywell, Union Pacific). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +8.15%, sixth of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($173.04) by 2.74%.

The Molecules Everything Else Runs On

The gauge cooled for a third day, to plus 102.21 from plus 104.39, but it’s still far above its average of plus 32.33, so the light stays yellow. The fund rose 0.28% to $68.16, sits 6.43% above its fifty-day and is first on the year at plus 52.42%.

Chevron rose 0.47% and Exxon 0.13%. Marathon Petroleum fell 1.49% and Phillips 66 0.33%. All six sit above their fifty-day, Marathon by 15.5%.

Two outlets have Brent above $110 this morning after renewed attacks on Saudi energy sites, and two report that the U.S. told non-emergency staff to leave Saudi Arabia. Our crude fund is quoted up 1.50% and the Energy fund up 1.00%. Wednesday’s government data showed crude stocks down 3.1 million barrels against an expected 0.8 million, per our calendar feed.

Energy (XLE) closed Wednesday at $68.16, +0.28%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 102.21, prior session 104.39, twenty-period average 32.33. Current below prior and above average, so the verdict is YELLOW, held from YELLOW on a move of minus 2.18 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 69.88, from plus 82.27.

Dominators, Wednesday close and session change: Chevron $226.78 +0.47%, Exxon Mobil $178.09 +0.13%, EOG Resources $157.88 -0.02%, ConocoPhillips $145.67 -0.19%, Phillips 66 $290.07 -0.33%, Marathon Petroleum $467.98 -1.49%. Two advancers, four decliners, average -0.24%. Above the fifty-day: six of six. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +52.42%, first of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($64.04) by 6.43%.

The Aisles Nobody Skips

Staples cooled for a fourth day, to plus 106.45 from plus 146.30, still above its average of plus 18.36, so it’s yellow. The fund fell 0.73% to $87.11 and sits 3.41% above its fifty-day.

Procter & Gamble fell 1.56% ahead of its report, Philip Morris 1.22% the day it reported and Coca-Cola 0.87%. PepsiCo rose 0.51% and crossed back above its fifty-day, so all six now sit above trend.

Procter & Gamble reported this morning. Our feed has $2.00 a share against $1.88 expected; the company’s release hadn’t reached us by press time, so that’s one source, and the early quote is too wide to read. Philip Morris’s $2.36 against $2.30 is still one source too. Coca-Cola reports next Tuesday. PepsiCo’s holders need a 6.3% gain to get back to January.

Consumer Staples (XLP) closed Wednesday at $87.11, -0.73%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 106.45, prior session 146.30, twenty-period average 18.36. Current below prior and above average, so the verdict is YELLOW, held from YELLOW on a move of minus 39.85 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 88.09, from plus 138.21.

Dominators, Wednesday close and session change: PepsiCo $134.70 +0.51%, Costco $998.31 +0.37%, Walmart $117.80 -0.04%, Coca-Cola $92.68 -0.87%, Philip Morris $197.46 -1.22%, Procter & Gamble $156.84 -1.56%. Two advancers, four decliners, average -0.47%. Above the fifty-day: six of six. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +12.10%, fifth of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($84.24) by 3.41%.

The Bill That Arrives Regardless

Yesterday we said one soft day would put this back at yellow. It didn’t get one. The gauge rose to plus 92.72 from plus 81.78, above its average of plus 1.24. The fund gained 0.29% to $42.00 and crossed back above its fifty-day by 0.20%.

Vistra jumped 3.87% and NRG 2.00%, and American Electric Power edged up. Southern, Duke and NextEra slipped. Four of six hold above trend.

NextEra reported Wednesday. Our feed has $1.24 a share against $1.20 expected, the company’s filing is out, and the stock fell 0.74%. American Electric Power reports next Wednesday per our feed. NRG’s holders need a 61.9% gain to get back to January, down from 65.2%.

Utilities (XLU) closed Wednesday at $42.00, +0.29%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 92.72, prior session 81.78, twenty-period average 1.24. Current above prior and above average, so the verdict is GREEN, held from GREEN on a move of plus 10.94 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 91.48, from plus 93.99.

Dominators, Wednesday close and session change: Vistra $156.14 +3.87%, NRG $99.80 +2.00%, American Electric Power $127.39 +0.13%, Southern $90.39 -0.35%, Duke Energy $120.67 -0.54%, NextEra $78.28 -0.74%. Three advancers, three decliners, average +0.73%. Above the fifty-day: four of six (Vistra, American Electric Power, Southern, Duke Energy). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: -2.08%, ninth of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($41.92) by 0.20%.

The Raw Material Under Everything

Easy come, easy go. On Tuesday Materials went green on a 1.50-point rise. On Wednesday the gauge slipped 1.86 points to plus 162.19, and that was enough for yellow. It’s still 177.95 points above its average of minus 15.76. The fund rose 0.18% to $51.32 and sits 0.52% above its fifty-day.

Sherwin-Williams rose 0.37% and Newmont 0.32%, and the rest finished within a quarter point either way. Four of six hold above trend; Newmont and Freeport-McMoRan are under.

Newmont reports today, and Sherwin-Williams, Ecolab and Freeport-McMoRan next Tuesday. The gold fund is quoted down 1.44% this morning.

Materials (XLB) closed Wednesday at $51.32, +0.18%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 162.19, prior session 164.05, twenty-period average -15.76. Current below prior and above average, so the verdict is YELLOW, downgraded from GREEN on a move of minus 1.86 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 177.95, from plus 191.83.

Dominators, Wednesday close and session change: Sherwin-Williams $337.27 +0.37%, Newmont $117.18 +0.32%, Freeport-McMoRan $68.90 +0.04%, Air Products $302.66 +0.03%, Ecolab $288.09 -0.02%, Linde $500.57 -0.26%. Four advancers, two decliners, average +0.08%. Above the fifty-day: four of six (Sherwin-Williams, Air Products, Ecolab, Linde). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +12.74%, fourth of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($51.05) by 0.52%.

The Ground Rent On The Whole Economy

One day of green. The gauge eased to plus 112.47 from plus 119.61, still well above its average of minus 47.70, so it’s yellow. The fund lost 0.76% to $42.06 and sits 2.11% under its fifty-day.

American Tower fell 3.23%, Public Storage 1.14% and Simon Property 0.70%. Iron Mountain rose 1.47%, Equinix 0.77% and Prologis 0.10%. Public Storage slipped back under trend, which leaves American Tower the only one of six above it.

Public Storage reports next Monday per our feed, American Tower next Tuesday and Equinix next Wednesday. Prologis holders are down 0.11% on the year.

Real Estate (XLRE) closed Wednesday at $42.06, -0.76%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 112.47, prior session 119.61, twenty-period average -47.70. Current below prior and above average, so the verdict is YELLOW, downgraded from GREEN on a move of minus 7.14 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 160.17, from plus 180.21.

Dominators, Wednesday close and session change: Iron Mountain $114.72 +1.47%, Equinix $995.00 +0.77%, Prologis $127.60 +0.10%, Simon Property $205.55 -0.70%, Public Storage $298.31 -1.14%, American Tower $177.64 -3.23%. Three advancers, three decliners, average -0.45%. Above the fifty-day: one of six (American Tower). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +4.26%, seventh of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($42.97) by 2.11%.

Leaders and laggards in the roster. Micron leads at plus 209.59%, then Marathon Petroleum at plus 187.37%, Advanced Micro Devices at plus 152.50%, Phillips 66 at plus 124.86% and ConocoPhillips at plus 55.61%. The bottom three are Nike at minus 41.36%, NRG at minus 38.23% and Oracle at minus 34.61%. Micron’s lead over Marathon Petroleum widened to 22.2 points from 11.9.

Above and below the fifty-day. Forty-one of the sixty-seven companies close above their own fifty-day average, up from thirty-nine. Three crossed up: Advanced Micro Devices, PepsiCo and UPS. One crossed down: Public Storage. By sector: Energy six of six, Consumer Staples six of six, Health Care five of six, Utilities four of six, Consumer Discretionary four of six, Materials four of six, Technology three of seven, Financials three of six, Industrials three of six, Communication Services two of six, Real Estate one of six. Six of the eleven sector funds close above their own fifty-day: Energy, Health Care, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Materials and Utilities, which crossed up. The index proxy closes 0.62% above its own.

Relative strength callouts. Micron beats its own sector fund by 180 points on the year and Advanced Micro Devices by 123, while Oracle trails it by 64. Marathon Petroleum beats Energy by 135 points and Phillips 66 by 72. Iron Mountain beats Real Estate by 34 points. The worst relative performers against their own sectors are Oracle at minus 64, Intuitive Surgical at minus 40, Nike at minus 38 and NRG at minus 36.

One line on the consensus. The easy headline for Wednesday is that tech bounced. It did. Our count adds that the crowd split thirty-three to thirty-four and that five of our eleven sector gauges stepped down on the same day.

Twenty roster names fall inside the next seven calendar days, and two of them, Honeywell and Procter & Gamble, reported this morning. Six upcoming dates agree across our earnings feed and an independent schedule. Mastercard and Verizon have conflicting dates, so both show the range. Public Storage, Boeing, Ecolab, Freeport-McMoRan, UPS and next Wednesday’s five come from our feed only. Meta, Tesla, NextEra, AT&T and Philip Morris reported Wednesday and are covered in their sections. We don’t assert before-the-bell or after-the-bell timing for any of them.

Thursday’s jobless claims are forecast near 200,000, from 199,000, and Friday’s flash surveys of purchasing managers close the week. Next Tuesday brings durable goods, home prices, consumer confidence and new-home sales, and the Fed decides on Wednesday the twenty-eighth with no change expected. Wednesday’s government data had crude stocks down 3.1 million barrels against an expected 0.8 million. Dates, times and forecasts are from our economic calendar feed.

Every figure is measured from the January 2 opening price, for every company and every fund. The index proxy sits at plus 12.74% on the same basis, up from plus 12.15% on Tuesday.

Netflix fell another 5.31%, and its holders now need a 44.7% gain to get back to January; at Tuesday’s close they needed 37.0%. NRG bounced 2.00%, which cut its holders’ climb to 61.9%. Nike’s need is 70.5% and Oracle’s 52.9%. At the top, Micron pulled away from Marathon Petroleum again. None of these is a recommendation and none is a forecast.

Wednesday split three ways. The giants rose, the crowd broke even and the sector board lost five greens and gained one. The count above trend climbed to forty-one, and the overnight quotes have tech giving the day back. That’s a lot of disagreement for one session, and it’s why seven of our eleven sectors read yellow.

A word on how a gauge reading of minus 24.60 earns a green. Each color compares a sector’s reading with two things: its own reading the session before, and its own average over the last twenty sessions. Rising and above the average is green. Falling and under the average is red. Anything in between is yellow. Whether the reading is above or below zero doesn’t enter into it. Industrials is green because it’s climbing fast out of a deep hole, and the hole is still there: the fund sits 2.74% under its fifty-day. A green on a sector still under its trend line is a bounce until it holds.

The new test: if four or more of our seven yellows go red on any single completed session through Wednesday the twenty-eighth, Wednesday’s pause was the start of a break, and we’ll say that here in those words. The breadth test from Wednesday’s issue, fewer than thirty-five above trend through Tuesday, and the Technology test from Tuesday’s issue, through Friday, both run alongside it. Financials at plus 152.50 is the strongest of the three greens, and the Sector Risk tab on the Golden Terminal will chart it against the S&P as a single line.

Every gauge in this issue lives on the Golden Terminal, where any sector can be charted against the S&P.

Visit the Golden Terminal

Somebody you know will hear this morning that tech stocks bounced on Wednesday. True. Our count adds that only thirty-three of the sixty-seven big companies we track rose, five of eleven sectors lost ground on our board, and the overnight quotes have the chips giving it back. If they’d find that useful, this issue forwards cleanly.

The Daily Update tracks eleven sector verdicts on completed daily bars. Supercycle Trader works the longer arc underneath them: the multi-year cycles in commodities, credit and currency that decide which sectors get a decade and which get a quarter. Brent above $110 again, a ten-year Treasury at 5.13% and a $145 billion spending plan from a single company are the kind of configuration that arc is built to read.

Twenty roster names report inside the next seven calendar days. Honeywell and Procter & Gamble reported this morning, and Union Pacific and Newmont are on today’s schedule. Meta, Tesla, NextEra, AT&T and Philip Morris reported Wednesday. Our desk keeps a separate counter on these names ahead of each print, and nothing in it has fired for this group.

Every figure in this issue, checked against the market data it came from. Prices are Wednesday’s completed daily bars, Treasury yields come from the Treasury’s own daily curve, and where two sources disagree we show both and say which one the body follows.

The Daily Update is published by Golden Terminal for informational and educational purposes only. It isn’t personalized advice and it isn’t a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Figures come from third-party data providers and government releases and can be revised. Past performance doesn’t predict future results.

The Daily Update · Golden Terminal · Vol. III, No. 219 · Thursday, October 22, 2026