THE LEAD

Underneath, Meta fell on its $95 billion funding need and Verizon fell on the day it beat. The market-risk gauge climbed out of red, and no sector light is red this morning.

The chip stocks got their story on Monday, and it came from a company that isn’t public yet. Anthropic made its IPO filing public, and two outlets said it eased worries that the AI spending boom is a bubble. Micron rose 2.98% to $903.70, the best of our technology names, and it now sits 206.21% above where it opened the year. The chip fund gained 2.74%.

Underneath, the money split between the companies that sell the picks and shovels and the ones that pay for them. Advanced Micro Devices rose 2.80%, Nvidia 2.39% and Broadcom 2.33%. Meta fell 1.88%; two outlets report it needs up to $95 billion to fund its AI build and its core business. Tesla had the best day on our roster, up 5.21%, and Goldman Sachs added 2.01%. Verizon fell 3.49% on the day it beat the earnings estimate; our feed has its revenue at $34.31 billion against $34.77 billion expected, so the beat came with a revenue miss.

The market has reasons to stay jumpy. The Fed decides Wednesday. Microsoft and Alphabet report the same day and Amazon on Thursday, so most of the AI bill gets itemized in forty-eight hours. Oil eased, our crude fund down 1.95%, and two outlets tie that to talk of U.S.-Iran diplomacy. The ten-year is still sitting at 5.00%. None of that stopped a broad day: thirty-four of sixty-seven rose and the index proxy gained 0.71%.

Somebody pays for $95 billion of AI spending, and it isn’t only Meta. If any of that money comes in as new stock, the people who already own Meta own a smaller slice of the company the morning it’s sold. If it comes in as debt, the interest gets paid at today’s rates, with the ten-year at 5.00%. Either way the bill lands on the owners before the data centers earn a dollar.

Before our conclusion, the strongest case for the bears. One good day doesn’t fix a ten-year at 5.00%. The biggest spender on the board just told the world it needs $95 billion, and one outlet counts $148 billion already raised through public stock offerings this year, with Anthropic’s on the way. Verizon beat and still fell 3.49%. And the index proxy still closed under its fifty-day average. On that reading, Monday was a relief rally into a Fed meeting and the biggest earnings week of the quarter.

We think the bears have the supply of new stock right and the breadth wrong. Thirty-four of sixty-seven rose, forty-three sit above trend, and the market-risk gauge turned before the price did. That’s the order we’d expect if the market is changing direction. A yellow still isn’t a green, though, and the index proxy needs to get back above its fifty-day before we’d call this more than a turn in the gauge.

The best fund on the board on Monday, and still yellow. The fund gained 1.69% to $186.32. The gauge climbed to minus 81.08 from minus 121.39, but it’s still under its own average of minus 19.45, so it’s getting better without being well yet. The fund sits 1.71% under its fifty-day.

The chips did the work. Micron rose 2.98%, Advanced Micro Devices 2.80%, Nvidia 2.39% and Broadcom 2.33%, with Microsoft up 1.54%. Apple slipped 1.10% and Oracle 0.08%. Only Apple and Microsoft sit above trend.

Our test from Friday’s issue, the gauge back above zero by Thursday, still needs another 81 points. Oracle’s holders need a 56.6% gain to get back to January and Broadcom’s 7.2%. Microsoft reports Wednesday and Apple next Monday, per our feed. The fund is quoted up 0.52% this morning.

Flat on the day, and the gauge kept leaking. It slipped to plus 98.83 from plus 112.40, still above its average of plus 79.43, so it’s yellow. The fund closed unchanged at $179.28 and sits 4.62% above its fifty-day.

Gilead rose 1.70%, Johnson & Johnson 0.94%, Eli Lilly 0.45% and AbbVie 0.39%. UnitedHealth fell 1.77% and Intuitive Surgical 0.15%. Johnson & Johnson crossed back above its fifty-day, so all six now sit above trend.

This one has the thinnest positive cushion on the board at plus 19.40. Intuitive Surgical’s holders need a 25.5% gain to get back to January. Eli Lilly and Gilead report Thursday and AbbVie Friday, per our feed. The fund shows no premarket trade.

A small gain and a smaller gauge. The fund added 0.21% to $56.02 and sits two hundredths of a percent under its fifty-day. The gauge eased to plus 107.06 from plus 114.04, well above its average of plus 10.56, so it’s yellow.

Goldman Sachs rose 2.01%, Berkshire 1.17% and JPMorgan 0.74%. Mastercard fell 1.62%, Visa 0.92% and Bank of America 0.08%. Berkshire, Mastercard and Visa hold above trend.

Bank of America’s holders need an 8.9% gain to get back to January. Visa reports today and Mastercard Thursday, per our feed. The fund is quoted up 0.20% this morning.

Friday’s thinnest cushion turned into Monday’s newest green. The gauge rose to plus 89.88 from plus 54.25, above its average of plus 49.24. The fund gained 1.03% to $114.26 and climbed back above its fifty-day by 0.80%.

Tesla led the whole roster, up 5.21%. Starbucks rose 1.88%, Nike 1.64%, McDonald’s 0.95% and Amazon 0.44%. Home Depot slipped 0.14%. McDonald’s crossed back above its fifty-day, so five of six sit above trend; Amazon is the one that doesn’t.

The fund is still down 4.85% on the year, tenth of eleven, so this green is a start and not a record. Nike’s holders need a 68.8% gain to get back to January and McDonald’s 21.7%. Amazon and Starbucks report Thursday, per our feed. This morning’s quote on the fund is too thin to read.

Out of red, and still the weakest gauge on the board. It rose to minus 277.77 from minus 295.29, so the decline slowed, but it’s far under its average of minus 108.36. The fund lost another 1.57% to $103.85, the worst of the eleven, and sits 6.80% under its fifty-day and last on the year at minus 12.11%.

All six fell. Verizon lost 3.49% on its report day, Netflix 2.96%, Meta and Disney 1.88% each, Alphabet 1.06% and AT&T 0.38%. Disney is still the only one of six above trend.

Getting to yellow by falling a little slower isn’t much of a promotion. Netflix’s holders need a 47.3% gain to get back to January and AT&T’s 18.9%. Alphabet reports Wednesday, per our feed. The fund shows no premarket trade.

The biggest move on the board. The gauge jumped to minus 85.25 from minus 231.23, which lifts it to yellow, but it closed 1.15 points under its own average of minus 84.10, the thinnest margin anywhere. The fund gained 1.42% to $166.96 and sits 2.84% under its fifty-day.

Union Pacific rose 1.40% and Caterpillar 0.75%. Honeywell slipped 0.85%, Deere 0.76%, UPS 0.73% and Boeing 0.02%. Union Pacific, UPS and Honeywell hold above trend.

UPS reported this morning, a beat by two sources, and it’s quoted up 1.36%. Boeing reports today and Caterpillar Thursday, per our feed. Boeing’s holders need a 15.8% gain to get back to January. The fund shows no premarket trade.

Crude slipped and the oil stocks didn’t care much. Our crude fund fell 1.95%, but the Energy fund added 0.45% to $69.64. The gauge edged up to plus 109.61 from plus 107.94, above its average of plus 63.95, so it’s still green. The fund sits 7.98% above its fifty-day and first on the year at plus 55.72%.

The refiners led this time: Marathon Petroleum up 2.94% and Phillips 66 2.00%. Exxon rose 0.73%, EOG 0.40% and ConocoPhillips 0.38%, and Chevron slipped 0.51%. All six sit above trend.

The fund is quoted down 0.34% this morning, against the green but inside our line. Our Energy test from Monday’s issue, the gauge below its own average by Friday, has 45.66 points of room. Phillips 66 reports Wednesday and Exxon and Chevron Friday, per our feed.

A second soft day. The fund lost 0.34% to $87.96 and the gauge slipped to plus 85.44 from plus 112.10. It’s still above its average of plus 52.13, so it’s yellow. The fund sits 4.20% above its fifty-day.

Philip Morris rose 1.20%, Walmart 0.33% and Costco 0.18%. Coca-Cola was flat ahead of its report, PepsiCo slipped 0.23% and Procter & Gamble 0.68%. All six still sit above trend.

Coca-Cola reported this morning; our feed has 91 cents a share against about 88 cents, from one source so far, and the stock is quoted up 1.13%. PepsiCo’s holders need a 5.7% gain to get back to January. The fund is quoted down 0.26% on a wide spread.

Utilities barely moved. The fund closed at $42.55, off 0.02%, and the gauge eased to plus 111.14 from plus 115.73, still far above its average of plus 42.46. The fund sits 1.72% above its fifty-day.

The power producers bounced: NRG up 1.41% and Vistra 1.12%. Duke slipped 0.43%, American Electric Power 0.36%, Southern 0.34% and NextEra 0.07%. Four of six hold above trend; Vistra and NRG don’t.

NRG’s holders need a 72.6% gain to get back to January and Vistra’s 15.6%. American Electric Power reports Wednesday, per our feed. The fund is quoted up 0.16% this morning.

Gold steadied and so did Newmont, up 1.40% with the gold fund up 0.33%. Ecolab added 0.12%. Sherwin-Williams slipped 0.56%, Air Products 0.47%, Linde 0.25% and Freeport-McMoRan 0.03%.

The fund edged up 0.14% to $51.38, and the gauge slipped to plus 110.21 from plus 114.77. It’s still far above its average of plus 18.25, so it’s yellow. The fund sits 0.76% above its fifty-day, and four of six hold above trend.

Sherwin-Williams reported this morning, and our feed has it at $3.63 a share against $3.69 expected, a miss from one source so far. Ecolab and Freeport-McMoRan report today and Linde Thursday, per our feed. The fund shows no premarket trade.

The fund rose and the light still slipped. The fund gained 0.54% to $42.80, but the gauge eased to plus 134.00 from plus 146.11, so it’s yellow. It’s still far above its average of minus 4.26, the widest cushion on the board at plus 138.26. The fund sits 0.06% under its fifty-day.

Iron Mountain rose 2.84% and Equinix 1.32%, and Simon Property added 0.50%. Public Storage fell 0.94%, American Tower 0.37% and Prologis 0.11%. Three of six sit above trend.

American Tower reported this morning, and our feed has it in line with the estimate at $1.64. Equinix reports Wednesday, per our feed. Prologis holders need a 1.1% gain to get back to January. The fund shows no premarket trade.

ROTATION

Leaders and laggards in the roster. Micron leads at plus 206.21%, then Marathon Petroleum at plus 189.00%, Advanced Micro Devices at plus 142.70%, Phillips 66 at plus 123.91% and ConocoPhillips at plus 61.70%. The bottom three are NRG at minus 42.07%, Nike at minus 40.77% and Oracle at minus 36.16%. Micron’s lead over Marathon Petroleum widened to 17.2 points from 16.6.

Above and below the fifty-day. Forty-three of the sixty-seven companies close above their own fifty-day average, up from forty-one. Two crossed up: Johnson & Johnson and McDonald’s. None crossed down. By sector: Energy six of six, Consumer Staples six of six, Health Care six of six, Consumer Discretionary five of six, Utilities four of six, Materials four of six, Financials three of six, Industrials three of six, Real Estate three of six, Technology two of seven, Communication Services one of six. Six of the eleven sector funds close above their own fifty-day: Energy, Health Care, Consumer Staples, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary and Materials. Consumer Discretionary crossed up. The index proxy closes 0.29% under its own, from 1.02% under.

Relative strength callouts. Micron beats its own sector fund by 178 points on the year and Advanced Micro Devices by 115, while Oracle trails it by 64. Marathon Petroleum beats Energy by 133 points and Phillips 66 by 68. Iron Mountain beats Real Estate by 30 points. The worst relative performers against their own sectors are Oracle at minus 64, NRG at minus 41, and Nike and Intuitive Surgical at minus 36 each.

One line on the consensus. The easy headline for Monday is that an IPO filing revived the AI trade. That’s right as far as it goes. Our count adds that thirty-four of sixty-seven rose, that Consumer Discretionary went green on Tesla and Starbucks, and that the companies paying for the AI build, Meta first, didn’t share in it.

EARNINGS CALENDAR

Twenty-four roster names fall inside the next seven calendar days. UPS reported this morning, and its result agrees across the company’s release and our feed. Coca-Cola, Sherwin-Williams and American Tower reported this morning too; their dates agree across two sources and their results come from our feed only so far. Visa’s date agrees across two sources. The rest come from our feed only. We don’t assert before-the-bell or after-the-bell timing for any of them.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Monday’s two regional readings both came in above forecast: the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index at 13.4 against 7 expected, and the Chicago Fed’s national activity index at 0.07 against minus 0.1. This week carries the Fed’s decision on Wednesday, with two outlets expecting no change, third-quarter growth and September’s spending-price index on Thursday, where the forecast is 3.6% on the year after 3.4%, and the employment cost index on Friday. Dates, times, forecasts and Monday’s readings come from our economic calendar feed.

LEADERS AND LAGGARDS

Every figure is measured from the January 2 opening price, for every company and every fund. The index proxy sits at plus 11.62% on the same basis, up from plus 10.83% on Friday.

NRG bounced 1.41%, and its holders still need a 72.6% gain to get back to January. Nike’s need is 68.8% and Oracle’s 56.6%. Netflix fell another 2.96% and its holders now need 47.3%. At the top, Micron rose 2.98% and pulled 17.2 points clear of Marathon Petroleum. None of these is a recommendation and none is a forecast.

FINAL WORD

The board starts Tuesday with no red lights: two green and nine yellow. Nine yellows is a board that has stopped falling and hasn’t decided to rise. Wednesday’s Fed decision and the Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon reports will decide a lot of those yellows.

One gauge we lean on is the market-risk light. It’s the same twenty-day reading we run on every sector, applied to the index proxy itself, so it tells us whether the whole market is gaining or losing momentum against its own recent average. On Monday it rose from minus 132.58 to minus 72.20. Rising but still under its average of plus 21.27 makes it yellow, and it’s the light we watch first when the sector lights disagree.

The new test: if the market-risk gauge closes below both its prior reading and its own average on any completed session through Friday the thirtieth, it’s back to red, Monday’s turn was relief and not a change, and we’ll say that here in those words. Monday’s Energy test, the gauge below its own average by Friday, stands at plus 109.61 against plus 63.95. Consumer Discretionary at plus 89.88 is the newest green on the board, and the Sector Risk tab on the Golden Terminal will chart it against the S&P as a ratio.

Twenty-four roster names report inside the next seven calendar days, from UPS, Coca-Cola, Sherwin-Williams and American Tower this morning through Apple next Monday. Our desk keeps a separate counter on these names ahead of each print, and nothing in it has fired for this group.

FOR THE PROS

Every figure in this issue, checked against the market data it came from. Prices are Monday’s completed daily bars, Treasury yields come from the Treasury’s own daily curve, and where two sources disagree we show both and say which one the body follows.

The Daily Update is published by Golden Cycles Research for informational and educational purposes only. It isn’t personalized advice and it isn’t a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Figures come from third-party data providers and government releases and can be revised. Past performance doesn’t predict future results.

The Daily Update · Golden Terminal · Vol. III, No. 223 · Tuesday, October 27, 2026