DAILY MARKET BRIEF · The Sector Cycle Radar
Vol. III · No. 125 · Thursday, June 25, 2026 · Free Markets · Honest Money · No Apologies
THURSDAY TRADER'S BRIEF — 30-Second Read · Cash Open 9:30 ET · The Print Landed, And It Was A Blowout
Gauge | Reading |
|---|---|
Last Tape | Wed Jun 24 · QQQ $710.62 (+15.90% YTD) — held the wreck |
Micron Q3 | EPS $25.11 vs $20.86 est — up ~18% pre-bell (~$1,227) |
10Y Treasury | 4.50% (6/23) · 2s10s 34 bps |
WTI Crude | $69.63 (−1%) — below $70, first since Feb |
Fri 8:30 AM | PCE (May) — Warsh's first inflation print as Chairman |
The binary resolved — decisively bullish. Micron didn't just beat, it annihilated: adjusted EPS $25.11 vs the Street's $20.86 (and $1.91 a year ago); revenue $41.46 billion, up 346% YoY, vs $35.9 billion expected; gross margin 84.9%. Then it guided fiscal-Q4 to a record $50 billion in revenue and $31 EPS — about $7 above consensus. The stock sold 13% into the print is up ~18% pre-bell near $1,227.
The whole cohort caught the read-through. SMH +4.5% pre-bell; SK Hynix +13% in Seoul; Infineon +6.7% in Europe. S&P futures +0.7%, Nasdaq +2.2%, Dow +0.2%. Tuesday they buried the AI trade; 48 hours later the same crowd is buying it back because one company in Boise proved the build-out is real.
The momentum instrument hasn't seen Thursday yet — and that's the tell. On the CCI(20) rule off Wednesday's close the count is 3 GREEN / 5 YELLOW / 3 RED. Technology is still RED because the gauge reads Wednesday, before Micron spoke. Expect XLK to claw back toward green by Friday's close.
The hedges are unwinding as risk comes back on. Crude broke below $70 ($69.63); gold broke below $4,000 for the first time since November. The 10-year at 4.50% with a 34 bp 2s10s is the one cloud — the bond desk has not backed off the hawkish path.
Trader's call into the open. You're buying the gap, not the setup. Held Micron through the print? The move is yours — don't add at +18%. Flat the cohort? Chase nothing; let the first hour set the range and look for the pullback a big gap usually offers. Keep 6–10% in T-bills into Friday's 8:30 AM PCE — the only print that can spoil the party lands tomorrow.
Dear reader: it is Thursday morning in Taintsville, and the market opens into the exact opposite of the mood it opened into on Wednesday. Two days ago the cable channels were holding a funeral for the artificial-intelligence trade, narrating a trillion-dollar Nasdaq-100 washout they had christened "the chip-wreck." Last night the deceased got up off the table. Micron Technology, the Boise memory maker whose print the entire cohort had been leaning on, reported fiscal third-quarter results after the close, and it did not merely beat the number. It annihilated it: adjusted earnings of $25.11 a share against a Street estimate of $20.86 — and against $1.91 a year ago. Revenue of $41.46 billion, up 346%, against $35.9 billion expected. A gross margin of 84.9%, a company record. The honest one-sentence read: the catalyst the market sold in fear came back in fact, and it came back carrying a fifty-billion-dollar guide.
Here is the part Tuesday's mourners got exactly backwards. The cohort was sold into this print, not on it. On Tuesday the memory complex took a 13% haircut on the theory that hyperscalers are building data centers with borrowed money and a hawkish Fed is about to make that money expensive. Micron just answered with a balance sheet: it cut debt by $4.4 billion in the quarter, closed with $24.4 billion of net cash, and got upgraded to BBB+ by all three agencies. It signed 16 strategic customer agreements worth roughly $100 billion, with customers putting up $22 billion in cash deposits to lock in supply. That is not a company on a credit-card float; that is a company whose customers are pre-paying it for chips it has not made yet. The stock that closed Wednesday at $1,048.51 jumped ~15% after-hours and sits up about 18% pre-bell near $1,227.
The read-through is everywhere. SMH is up 4.5% pre-bell; SK Hynix jumped 13% in Seoul after announcing a $29 billion Nasdaq listing; Infineon is up 6.7% in Frankfurt. S&P futures are up 0.7%, Nasdaq futures up 2.2%. KeyBanc lifted its Micron target to $1,600 from $600; Wedbush called the AI build-out "still in the third inning." The Bonner read on the whiplash: a trillion dollars of market value did not exist on Monday, cease to exist on Tuesday, and come roaring back Thursday. What changed three times in one week was not the wealth. It was the opinion about the wealth. Nothing broke Tuesday except the willingness to keep paying yesterday's price, and nothing was repaired Wednesday night except the proof that the willingness had been right.
And here is the signal the Radar's own instrument is sending, which disagrees with the headlines for one revealing reason. On the 20-period Commodity Channel Index rule, computed off Wednesday's close, the sector momentum count reads 3 green, 5 yellow, 3 red — an improvement from Tuesday's 2-green, 5-red wreck posture, with Industrials rejoining Utilities and Staples in the green. But Technology is still red on this instrument, and that is not an error — it is a timestamp. The CCI is reading the tape as it stood Wednesday afternoon, before Micron spoke. It has not seen the 18% pre-bell rip yet. The gap between what the instrument says (Tech wounded) and what the live tape says (Tech ripping) is the cleanest read on the page: barring a PCE disaster Friday, expect Technology to reclaim its green light by week's end.
Above all of it, the macro tape is doing what it does when fear leaves the room. West Texas Intermediate fell another 1% to $69.63, below $70 for the first time since late February — the war premium has overshot to the downside, and a barrel in the sixties is a tax cut for everyone who is not an oil producer. Gold broke below $4,000 for the first time since November. The one cloud is the bond market: the 10-year at 4.50%, the 2-year at 4.16%, a 2s10s of 34 basis points — still pricing a Fed closer to hiking than cutting. Friday at 8:30 AM the May PCE print lands, the first inflation reading Warsh answers to as Chairman. That print, not Micron, is the only thing standing between this tape and a clean reversal of Tuesday's wreck. The honest trader has no dog in the fight. Tuesday was the panic. Wednesday night was the proof. Thursday is the relief. Friday is the referee.
— Brad Hoppmann
Filed from Taintsville, Florida · Pop. < 1,000 · 'Taint in the Beltway, 'taint in any backwards corrupt city — just a Florida man with a sharp pencil and a long memory of expensive lessons.
WHAT TO WATCH — THURSDAY CASH OPEN 9:30 AM ET
The print landed and it was a blowout. You're buying the gap, not the setup: held MU through the print, the move is yours, don't add at +18%; flat the cohort, let the first hour set the range. Nike (NKE) reports AMC — the deepest discretionary drawdown (−33.9% YTD); FX and China are the watch items. McCormick (MKC) reported BMO. Crude below $70 keeps the refiners (VLO, PSX) carrying energy, not the barrel. Keep 6–10% in T-bills into Friday's 8:30 AM PCE — the only print that can spoil the party lands tomorrow.
"Tuesday they buried the AI trade. Wednesday night it got up off the table carrying a fifty-billion-dollar guide. The trader who waited for the number is the one who gets to act on the news."
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The Engines Of The Modern Economy
Information Technology — ● CCI RED
Our momentum gauge still reads red — because it hasn't seen last night's Micron blowout. The chips are up 18% this morning.
Information Technology (XLK) closed Wednesday at $183.05, +26.85% YTD, and its CCI(20) verdict is still RED — a Wednesday-afternoon timestamp, computed before Micron reported. The live tape is the opposite: Micron blew out its print and guided to a record $50 billion, the cohort is bid hard pre-bell, and the leadership chart that lost its green light Tuesday just got the cleanest earnings confirmation of the year. The hyperscale-software laggards (MSFT, ORCL) remain in their spring drawdown — the one part the Micron print does not directly rescue.
Top stories:
Taiwan Semi (TSM) +37.9% YTD — the wafer foundry behind every chip number here; closed $440.83.
CrowdStrike (CRWD) +48.4% YTD — the one software subset not re-rating lower; closed $673.02.
Palantir (PLTR) −32.4% YTD — still the deepest large-cap tech drawdown; closed $113.50.
The Dominators:
Micron MU — closed $1,048.51 (+232.4% YTD), then annihilated fiscal-Q3: EPS $25.11 vs $20.86 est, revenue $41.46B (+346%), GM 84.9%; guided Q4 to record $50B/$31 EPS; 16 SCAs ~$100B, $22B deposits. Up ~18% pre-bell near $1,227.
NVIDIA NVDA — closed $199.00 (+5.37% YTD). HBM is the binding constraint on Blackwell, so Micron's record HBM4 ramp travels straight back to NVDA. The cleanest read-through name.
Advanced Micro Devices AMD — closed $519.74 (+132.6% YTD). The MI400 ramp is intact; Micron's HBM4 commentary tightens the back-half margin outlook.
Broadcom AVGO — closed $382.07 (+9.91% YTD), the lagging-leader of the cohort. The AI-ASIC franchise is the bull case.
Apple AAPL — closed $293.08 (+8.14% YTD); a relative safe-harbor more than a Micron read-through.
Microsoft MSFT — closed $365.46 (−22.7% YTD), the largest-cap lagger; the debt-funded-capex fear points at Azure and the chart hasn't turned.
Oracle ORCL — closed $157.53 (−19.5% YTD), the canary on the hyperscale-capex reset.
Other stories worth knowing: Arm (ARM) +213.0% ($359.08); Marvell (MRVL) +209.5% ($276.70); Vertiv (VRT) +80.2% ($316.43); SK Hynix +13% in Seoul on the read-through; Arista (ANET) +21.1% ($161.74).
The Politicized Spreadsheet Of America
Health Care — ● CCI YELLOW
The safety trade is fading as risk comes back on. UnitedHealth leads; the lab-tools names still bleed.
Health Care (XLV) closed Wednesday at $153.35, −1.39% YTD, holding a YELLOW verdict. The catch: it is the haven money runs to when chips wreck, and chips just un-wrecked, so the relative-strength case weakens as the AI bid returns. UnitedHealth carries the cleanest chart (+20.6% YTD); Thermo Fisher, Danaher, and Abbott sit in deep drawdowns despite unbroken earnings power.
Top stories:
UnitedHealth (UNH) +20.6% YTD — the cleanest relative-strength chart in the sector; closed $405.80.
Eli Lilly (LLY) +3.4% YTD — the GLP-1 trend has flattened; closed $1,117.26.
Abbott (ABT) −27.1% YTD — among the deepest large-cap drawdowns; closed $90.49.
The Dominators:
UnitedHealth UNH — $405.80 (+20.6%); the Medicare Advantage cycle turned and the chart followed.
Johnson & Johnson JNJ — $241.00 (+16.2%); the dividend aristocrat — which is why a risk-on Thursday is a relative headwind.
Eli Lilly LLY — $1,117.26 (+3.4%); flat since spring, waiting on the next print to confirm the moat.
AbbVie ABBV — $234.89 (+2.4%); the Skyrizi/Rinvoq ramp is intact, the chart just starting to reward it.
Merck MRK — $120.60 (+13.3%); the second-cleanest pharma chart behind UNH.
Thermo Fisher TMO — $492.20 (−16.9%); the deepest tools drawdown; bioprocessing demand is the watch item.
Other stories worth knowing: Pfizer (PFE) −4.5% ($24.04); Danaher (DHR) −18.0% ($188.87); Abbott (ABT) −27.1%.
The Ledger That Keeps The Republic Running
Financials — ● CCI RED
The Wall Street brokers still own the year. But the sector's momentum light is still red.
Financials (XLF) closed Wednesday at $53.72, −2.20% YTD, holding a RED verdict as momentum rolls over from a high base. Goldman +17.8%, Morgan Stanley +20.9%, and Citi +21.0% still lead on M&A and trading the universal banks can't replicate. JPMorgan is barely positive (+2.5%); BofA is the curve-leverage trade (+3.2%). The payment networks (V/MA) are in their first sustained drawdown since 2022.
Top stories:
Morgan Stanley (MS) +20.9% YTD — the cleanest broker-dealer chart; closed $219.86.
Citigroup (C) +21.0% YTD — the restructuring trade is working; closed $143.59.
Goldman Sachs (GS) +17.8% YTD — M&A re-acceleration; closed $1,076.91.
The Dominators:
JPMorgan JPM — $333.45 (+2.5%); flat all year; the NIM question is the watch item.
Bank of America BAC — $57.73 (+3.2%); the cleanest curve-leverage trade.
Goldman Sachs GS — $1,076.91 (+17.8%); the leadership chart — a risk-on tape helps both M&A and trading.
Morgan Stanley MS — $219.86 (+20.9%); leads the cohort on wealth-management plus trading.
Visa V — $332.23 (−4.1%) and Mastercard MA $494.41 (−12.2%); the duopoly's first sustained drawdown since 2022.
Other stories worth knowing: Wells Fargo (WFC) −11.5% ($84.30); Citi (C) +21.0%; BlackRock (BLK) −9.4% ($982.60).
Where The American Wallet Decides What Year It Is
Consumer Discretionary — ● CCI YELLOW
Momentum quietly improved here even before Micron. Amazon carries the group, and Nike reports tonight down 34% on the year.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) closed Wednesday at $115.07, −2.77% YTD, flipping from red to YELLOW as the cohort stabilized. The K-shape is still the story: Starbucks (+23.3%) is the one working name; McDonald's (−9.7%), Lowe's (−10.3%), Booking (−14.9%), and Nike (−33.9%) sit in drawdown. Amazon (+3.4%) is the relative-strength carrier and the discretionary name most levered to the AI read-through; Tesla (−14.3%) is the dip nobody can hold. Nike reports tonight.
Top stories:
Starbucks (SBUX) +23.3% YTD — the Niccol turnaround is working; closed $103.53.
Booking (BKNG) −14.9% YTD — travel has rolled over; closed $181.25.
Nike (NKE) −33.9% YTD — deepest in the sector; reports AMC; closed $41.82.
The Dominators:
Amazon AMZN — $234.27 (+3.4%); AWS stabilized; the Micron-confirmed AI demand is a direct cloud-capex read-through.
Tesla TSLA — $375.53 (−14.3%); robotaxi and energy storage carry the bull case; deliveries are the quarterly binary.
Home Depot HD — $342.86 (−0.9%) and Lowe's LOW $221.45 (−10.3%); held down by housing turnover; Monday's Pending Home Sales is the read.
McDonald's MCD — $273.88 (−9.7%); the low-end trade-down in one chart.
Starbucks SBUX — $103.53 (+23.3%); the sector's leadership name; China is the watch item.
Other stories worth knowing: Nike (NKE) −33.9% reports tonight; Booking (BKNG) −14.9%; Costco (COST) +12.5% ($961.09).
The Cohort That Owns The Eyes And The Earphones
Communication Services — ● CCI YELLOW
Alphabet is still the only chart in the sector that wants to go up. Meta and Netflix are still looking for a floor.
Communication Services (XLC) closed Wednesday at $106.54, −8.86% YTD, holding YELLOW and still the laggard SPDR on the year. The drawdown is concentrated in Meta (−14.3%) and Netflix (−21.1%); Alphabet (+9.6%) is the only large-cap working. The telcos are split: VZ +12.7% is the bright spot, T −8.9% and TMUS −9.4% are dead money, Charter is the laggard at −37.2%.
Top stories:
Alphabet (GOOGL) +9.6% YTD — the cleanest chart in the sector; closed $345.29.
Netflix (NFLX) −21.1% YTD — the streaming-leadership thesis is in drawdown; closed $71.84.
Charter (CHTR) −37.2% YTD — the cable-bundle endgame in real time; closed $131.42.
The Dominators:
Alphabet GOOGL — $345.29 (+9.6%); Search-plus-Cloud carries, and the Micron-confirmed AI cycle reads through to Cloud capex.
Meta Platforms META — $557.67 (−14.3%); Reality Labs capex is exactly the debt-and-spend fear; Reels monetization is the bull case.
Netflix NFLX — $71.84 (−21.1%); the next leg needs content-margin expansion.
Disney DIS — $101.12 (−9.6%); parks, streaming margin, ESPN spinoff — pick your headwind.
T-Mobile TMUS — $180.79 (−9.4%); the cleanest large-cap telco drawdown in years.
Other stories worth knowing: Verizon (VZ) +12.7% ($45.68); AT&T (T) −8.9% ($22.37); Charter (CHTR) −37.2%.
The Trade-Of-The-Year Cohort That Just Got Its Green Light Back
Industrials — ● CCI GREEN
Caterpillar is up 66%, and Industrials just got its green light back. The AI build-out Micron confirmed runs right through this sector.
Industrials (XLI) closed Wednesday at $180.21, +14.07% YTD, flipping back to GREEN — the trade-of-the-year cohort reclaiming its light after Tuesday's wreck. Leadership is the data-center-and-electrification subset: Caterpillar (+66.2%), Deere (+28.7%), GE Aerospace, Honeywell. The Micron print matters here too — the same build-out needs the gensets, grid gear, and cooling. FedEx's Tuesday beat-and-lower is the one freight caution.
Top stories:
Caterpillar (CAT) +66.2% YTD — data-center backup-power demand is real; closed $994.45.
Deere (DE) +28.7% YTD — the ag-equipment cycle has turned; closed $600.75.
Honeywell (HON) +16.1% YTD — portfolio simplification carries; closed $227.42.
The Dominators:
Caterpillar CAT — $994.45 (+66.2%); the genset/backup-power business is the bull case the channels missed.
Deere DE — $600.75 (+28.7%); precision-ag subscriptions are the structural story.
GE Aerospace GE — $365.88 (+14.1%); the LEAP services-and-aftermarket cycle.
Boeing BA — $220.25 (−3.3%); the slow recovery chart wants another quarter.
Honeywell HON — $227.42 (+16.1%); the second-cleanest chart in the sector.
Union Pacific UNP — $259.96 (+12.1%); rail momentum intact; FedEx's soft guide is the read-across.
FedEx FDX — $316.83 (+8.1%); Tuesday's beat-and-lower (adj EPS $6.31 vs $5.96) is the global-freight K-shape read.
UPS UPS — $106.14 (+5.1%); FedEx's guide reads across.
RTX RTX — $185.06 (−1.2%); the lagging defense prime.
Other stories worth knowing: CAT +66.2% leads; DE +28.7%; FDX +8.1% the freight caution.
The Shelf The Money Runs To When The Stock Market Coughs
Consumer Staples — ● CCI GREEN
Staples still has the green light from Tuesday's flight to safety. But with chips ripping back, the safety trade has to compete again.
Consumer Staples (XLP) closed Wednesday at $84.44, +8.69% YTD, holding GREEN — the risk-off bid still on the instrument. The question is durability: this is what money buys when the chip trade runs out of buyers, and the chip trade just found a fresh tank of them. A ~4% short rate also means the dividend pitch competes with a T-bill. Altria (+25.8%) leads; Coca-Cola (+16.6%) and Costco (+12.5%) carry. McCormick reports this morning.
Top stories:
Altria (MO) +25.8% YTD — the dividend-yield trade leads; closed $72.07.
Coca-Cola (KO) +16.6% YTD — the cleanest defensive chart; closed $80.60.
Costco (COST) +12.5% YTD — the K-top consumer trade; closed $961.09.
The Dominators:
Walmart WMT — $119.00 (+5.5%); retail-media-plus-grocery defensive chart.
Costco COST — $961.09 (+12.5%); membership economics carry the multiple.
Procter & Gamble PG — $152.04 (+7.2%); the textbook defensive name.
Coca-Cola KO — $80.60 (+16.6%) and PepsiCo PEP $142.27 (+0.0%); the duopoly has split — KO works, PEP doesn't.
Philip Morris PM — $178.78 (+11.5%) and Altria MO $72.07 (+25.8%); the smokeless transition plus the dividend magnet.
Other stories worth knowing: McCormick (MKC) −29.3% reports BMO ($47.60); Altria (MO) +25.8%; PepsiCo (PEP) +0.0%.
The Barrel That Gave Back Its War Premium And Then Some
Energy — ● CCI RED
Oil broke below $70 for the first time since February. The refiners — not the barrel — still carry the sector.
Energy (XLE) closed Wednesday at $53.57, +17.35% YTD, flipping to RED as the barrel keeps cracking. WTI fell to $69.63, below $70 for the first time since late February, as the war premium drained and overshot. USO closed $106.29 (+54.1% YTD). Leadership is the refining-margin trade, not crude: Valero (+46.7%) and Phillips 66 (+29.2%) carry, because falling feedstock with firm cracks is good for refiners and bad for the barrel.
Top stories:
Valero (VLO) +46.7% YTD — the cleanest refining-margin trade of the year; closed $242.43.
WTI $69.63 — below $70, lowest since late February.
Phillips 66 (PSX) +29.2% YTD — the second-cleanest refiner; closed $168.64.
The Dominators:
ExxonMobil XOM — $136.90 (+11.6%); Permian and Guyana are the bull case; a sub-$70 barrel is the headwind.
Chevron CVX — $171.45 (+10.0%); the Hess integration and buyback pace.
ConocoPhillips COP — $106.92 (+10.6%); the barrel is the cyclical risk now biting.
Occidental OXY — $51.09 (+20.6%); the Berkshire-backed thesis still works.
EOG Resources EOG — $134.45 (+25.3%); premium inventory depth is the bull case.
Schlumberger SLB — $46.61 (+16.0%); the Middle-East order book vs a softer capex cycle.
Phillips 66 PSX — $168.64 (+29.2%) and Valero VLO $242.43 (+46.7%); the refining trade — falling crude is a tailwind for the cracks.
Other stories worth knowing: Valero (VLO) +46.7%; Phillips 66 (PSX) +29.2%; WTI $69.63 — the cracks are the trade.
The Cohort The Money Ran To — And The AI Trade Hiding Inside It
Utilities — ● CCI GREEN
The power companies kept their green light through the whole drama. They work both ways — the hiding place Tuesday, the AI trade Thursday.
Utilities (XLU) closed Wednesday at $45.54, +5.47% YTD, holding GREEN — the rare cohort that kept its light through the wreck and the recovery. It is the risk-off haven and the back-door AI trade at once, since the data centers that cracked and rallied the tape still need the power. Leadership is the AI-PPA cohort: Southern (+9.9%), Duke (+7.7%), NextEra (+8.3%), Talen (+2.3%). Constellation is the deep-drawdown outlier at −26.8%.
Top stories:
Southern (SO) +9.9% YTD — the cleanest regulated-utility chart and YTD leader; closed $95.78.
NextEra (NEE) +8.3% YTD — the regulated-plus-renewables leader; closed $87.62.
Constellation (CEG) −26.8% YTD — the nuclear-restart trade still unwinding; closed $267.97.
The Dominators:
NextEra NEE — $87.62 (+8.3%); FPL regulated book plus the renewables pipeline.
Southern SO — $95.78 (+9.9%); Vogtle is running; Georgia data-center load is the bull case.
Talen Energy TLN — $405.89 (+2.3%); the AI-PPA pure-play; the Micron-confirmed build-out is the demand behind the next PPA.
Duke Energy DUK — $126.53 (+7.7%); the Carolinas data-center load.
Constellation CEG — $267.97 (−26.8%); the Three Mile Island restart is fully priced.
Vistra VST — $162.87 (−1.4%); merchant-power exposure to the AI cohort.
Other stories worth knowing: Southern (SO) +9.9%; Constellation (CEG) −26.8%; Vistra (VST) −1.4%.
The Cohort That Owns The Buildings That Own The Internet
Real Estate — ● CCI YELLOW
Equinix is up 43% as the AI landlord while American Tower sits flat. That split inside the sector is the trade.
Real Estate (XLRE) closed Wednesday at $44.51, +10.23% YTD, holding YELLOW with the rate-hike headwind capping the leveraged-REIT bid. The split is direct: data-center REITs (Equinix +43.3%) work as the AI-infrastructure expression — and the Micron build-out reads through to data-center leasing; tower REITs (American Tower −0.2%) do not. Industrial (Prologis +9.2%), retail (Simon +20.8%), and net-lease (Realty Income +8.2%) round it out.
Top stories:
Equinix (EQIX) +43.3% YTD — the cleanest data-center REIT; closed $1,095.00.
Simon Property (SPG) +20.8% YTD — the K-top retail REIT works; closed $222.15.
American Tower (AMT) −0.2% YTD — the tower cohort has stopped working; closed $174.46.
The Dominators:
American Tower AMT — $174.46 (−0.2%); flat, looking for direction.
Prologis PLD — $140.87 (+9.2%); the e-commerce-warehouse cycle.
Equinix EQIX — $1,095.00 (+43.3%); Micron's "tight beyond 2027" reads straight through to leasing.
Simon Property SPG — $222.15 (+20.8%); luxury-mall traffic is the story.
Realty Income O — $61.99 (+8.2%); the net-lease grind that lags on a risk-on day.
Other stories worth knowing: Equinix (EQIX) +43.3%; Simon (SPG) +20.8%; American Tower (AMT) −0.2%.
The Cohort That Pulls Things Out Of The Ground
Materials — ● CCI YELLOW
Copper and industrial gas still carry. Gold broke below $4,000, and the sector's momentum light improved to yellow.
Materials (XLB) closed Wednesday at $51.16, +10.93% YTD, improving from red to YELLOW. Leadership is copper (Freeport +19.1%) and industrial gases (Linde +20.2%, Air Products +11.3%). The gold complex cracked further — GLD closed $365.92 (−8.12% YTD), with spot gold breaking below $4,000 Thursday for the first time since November; Newmont (−7.1%) tracks the metal lower. Sherwin-Williams (+1.6%) keys off housing.
Top stories:
Linde (LIN) +20.2% YTD — the cleanest industrial-gas leadership chart; closed $515.73.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) +19.1% YTD — the cleanest copper-leverage chart; closed $61.84.
Newmont (NEM) −7.1% YTD — the gold-miner tracks the falling metal; closed $94.04.
The Dominators:
Linde LIN — $515.73 (+20.2%); fab gas-supply contracts make it the most AI-levered name in the sector.
Air Products APD — $278.73 (+11.3%); hydrogen/blue-ammonia capex is the watch item.
Freeport-McMoRan FCX — $61.84 (+19.1%); the electrification-of-everything thesis.
Newmont NEM — $94.04 (−7.1%) vs GLD −8.12%; both in the gold drawdown that deepened below $4,000.
Sherwin-Williams SHW — $333.13 (+1.6%); the housing-cycle proxy; Monday's Pending Home Sales is the read.
Other stories worth knowing: Linde (LIN) +20.2%; Freeport (FCX) +19.1%; Newmont (NEM) −7.1%.
Sector Rotation Snapshot — Thursday Reading Off Wednesday's Close
The momentum tape healed even before Micron spoke: 3 green, 5 yellow, 3 red — up from Tuesday's 2-green, 5-red wreck posture. Industrials rejoined Utilities and Staples in the green. But Technology is still red on this instrument, because the CCI reads Wednesday's close, before the 18% pre-bell rip. Expect Tech to claw back toward green by Friday.
Rank | Sector ETF | Close (Wed 6/24) | YTD % | CCI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | XLK Technology | $183.05 | +26.85% | RED |
2 | XLE Energy | $53.57 | +17.35% | RED |
3 | XLI Industrials | $180.21 | +14.07% | GREEN |
4 | XLB Materials | $51.16 | +10.93% | YELLOW |
5 | XLRE Real Estate | $44.51 | +10.23% | YELLOW |
6 | XLP Staples | $84.44 | +8.69% | GREEN |
7 | XLU Utilities | $45.54 | +5.47% | GREEN |
8 | XLV Health Care | $153.35 | −1.39% | YELLOW |
9 | XLF Financials | $53.72 | −2.20% | RED |
10 | XLY Discretionary | $115.07 | −2.77% | YELLOW |
11 | XLC Comm Services | $106.54 | −8.86% | YELLOW |
Dominator Leaders & Laggards (Wed 6/24 close)
Top 7 (leaders) | YTD | Bottom 7 (deepest) | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
MU (Micron) | +232.4% | CHTR (Charter) | −37.2% |
ARM (Arm) | +213.0% | NKE (Nike) | −33.9% |
MRVL (Marvell) | +209.5% | PLTR (Palantir) | −32.4% |
AMD | +132.6% | MKC (McCormick) | −29.3% |
VRT (Vertiv) | +80.2% | ABT (Abbott) | −27.1% |
CAT (Caterpillar) | +66.2% | CEG (Constellation) | −26.8% |
CRWD (CrowdStrike) | +48.4% | DHR (Danaher) | −18.0% |
The consensus narrative says: Tuesday's chip-wreck was the start of the AI unwind. The tape says: the cohort got sold into its catalyst, the catalyst showed up Wednesday night and annihilated the number, the same crowd that buried the trade is buying it back at +18%, the momentum instrument is one session behind and about to confirm, and only Friday's PCE stands between here and a clean reversal.
Companies Reporting in the Next Week
Thursday June 25 through Wednesday July 1, 2026
Date | Time | Company | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
Thu Jun 25 | BMO | McCormick (MKC) | The food-pricing tape inside the K-shape staples (−29.3% YTD). |
Thu Jun 25 | AMC | Nike (NKE) | Deepest discretionary drawdown (−33.9%); FX, China, inventory. |
Thu Jun 25 | AMC | Walgreens (WBA) | Pharmacy-retail margin reset; the PE take-out rumor cycle. |
Fri Jun 26 | BMO | Apogee, et al. | Second-tier building-products demand reads. |
Mon Jun 29 | AMC | Cal-Maine Foods | The egg-pricing cycle — cleanest small-cap food read. |
Tue Jun 30 | BMO | Conagra (CAG) | Packaged-food volume-and-pricing into quarter-end. |
Economic Reports in the Next Week
Friday's PCE is the print that matters
Date | Time | Release | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
Thu Jun 25 | 8:30 AM | Q1 GDP Final | Backward-looking, but the final number stamps the cycle. |
Thu Jun 25 | 8:30 AM | Initial Jobless Claims | The cleanest weekly labor read. |
Fri Jun 26 | 8:30 AM | PCE Price Index (May) | The print of the week. The Fed's preferred gauge — Warsh's first as Chairman. |
Fri Jun 26 | 10:00 AM | U. Michigan Sentiment | The inflation-expectation subcomponent is the carry. |
Mon Jun 29 | 10:00 AM | Pending Home Sales | The forward housing read for HD, LOW, SHW. |
Tue Jun 30 | 9:45 AM | Chicago PMI / Confidence | Month-end activity and sentiment into quarter close. |
YTD Leaders & Laggards — Live Tape (Wed 6/24 Close)
Top 5 Dominators | YTD | Close |
|---|---|---|
MU (Micron) | +232.4% | $1,048.51 |
ARM (Arm) | +213.0% | $359.08 |
MRVL (Marvell) | +209.5% | $276.70 |
AMD | +132.6% | $519.74 |
VRT (Vertiv) | +80.2% | $316.43 |
Bottom 3 Dominators | YTD | Close |
|---|---|---|
CHTR (Charter) | −37.2% | $131.42 |
NKE (Nike) | −33.9% | $41.82 |
PLTR (Palantir) | −32.4% | $113.50 |
Final Word From Taintsville — The Trillion Dollars That Came Home Wearing A Fifty-Billion-Dollar Guide
Dear reader: a follow-up to Tuesday's number. On Tuesday a trillion dollars left the Nasdaq-100, re-priced out of existence by the same crowd that priced it in over nine months. On Thursday I get to write the other half of the oldest lesson the market teaches: it came back. Not all of it, but the willingness that fled Tuesday came roaring home Wednesday night the moment one company in Boise put a real number on the table — revenue up 346%, a record margin, and a guide for fifty billion dollars in a single quarter from a company that did nine billion a year ago. The lesson, the one the market charges the highest tuition for, is the same in 1929 and 2000 and 2022: the people who sold the bottom of a two-day panic and the people who chase the top of a one-day euphoria are usually the same people, and the only trader who comes out ahead is the one who refused to act until the actual number arrived. The dog at my feet has no opinion. He found the shade, he is keeping it, and he will not be selling it at the open or buying it back at noon. There is a portfolio strategy in that animal somewhere. Honest money. Free markets. No apologies. The walk is at sunrise.
THE TAINTSVILLE DISPATCH
Down at the diner this morning, Earl Wayne came in grinning, which is rare before the second cup. Two days ago he'd asked whether the trillion dollars that "vanished" was real money or made-up money, and I'd told him it was the realest kind of made-up money there is. This morning he slapped the sportspage on the counter and said: "So your made-up trillion came back. Reckon it was real after all." I told him it was never about real or made-up — it was about whether the crowd believed the number, and last night a company in Idaho handed the crowd a number it had to believe. He sipped, and said: "So the move was never to count it Tuesday or count it Thursday. The move was to wait for the fella in Idaho to show his cards." I told him his daddy could've run a trading desk. He said his daddy ran something harder — a tobacco farm that didn't care what anybody believed, only what the scale said at the gin. The sportspage said the Marlins lost one they should've won, by two.
FORWARD THIS TO ONE TRADER FRIEND
If today's read sharpened your Thursday morning, the highest compliment you can pay this letter is to forward it to the one person in your circle who got scared out on Tuesday and needs to see what the print actually said. The Sector Cycle Radar grows the way every great financial letter grew — one trusted reader at a time, passed hand to hand.
Validation Data for the Pros — RIAs, Active Traders, Compliance Officers
Every directional and magnitude claim above, checked against the live tape. All 6/24 cash-close prices and YTD from Massive Market Data (Jan 2 2026 baseline); Treasury yields from the Fed H.15 series (6/23 posting); CPI from the BLS May 2026 release. Micron's Q3 results, Q4 guidance, and the premarket reaction from the Bigdata.com news feed and Micron's Q3 2026 earnings-call transcript. Crude and gold use USO/GLD proxies plus the WTI and spot-gold premarket prints (futures not entitled on the current plan).
Indicator | Radar Said | Live Tape |
|---|---|---|
SPY | $733.24, +7.33% | $733.24, +7.33% |
QQQ | $710.62, +15.90% | $710.62, +15.90% |
SMH | $618.92, +65.80% | $618.92, +65.80% |
10Y / 2Y / 30Y (6/23) | 4.50% / 4.16% / 4.94% | 4.50 / 4.16 / 4.94 |
MU Q3 EPS | $25.11 vs $20.86 est | $25.11 vs $20.86 |
MU Q3 revenue | $41.46B, +346% | $41.46B |
MU Q4 guide | $50B rev / $31 EPS | $50B±$1B / $31±$1 |
MU premarket | ~+18% near $1,227 | +16% to +18.6% |
WTI (Thu) | $69.63, <$70 | $69.63 |
GLD | $365.92, −8.12%; spot <$4,000 | $365.92, −8.12% |
CPI headline / core YoY (May) | +4.17% / +2.82% | +4.17% / +2.82% |
CCI(20) count (6/24) | 3G / 5Y / 3R | XLI,XLU,XLP green; XLK,XLE,XLF red |
Note: Treasury yields post the 6/23 H.15 close as the most recent observation; the MU premarket move, WTI $69.63, sub-$4,000 gold, SMH +4.5%, and futures levels come from the Thursday-morning news tape (MT Newswires, Benzinga, Alliance News, CNN, The Fly) and are dated as such. The May PCE figure is not in this issue — it releases Friday; any number on it would be fabrication. XLK reads red because the CCI(20) is computed off the 6/24 close, before the post-close Micron print — the instrument lags the news by one session by design.
Disclaimer. The Sector Cycle Radar is a general-circulation editorial publication and does not provide personalized investment advice. Signals, ratings, and commentary reflect the Radar's proprietary models and are for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own qualified financial advisor before any investment decision. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. The Radar relies on the publisher's exemption from the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 (Lowe v. SEC, 472 U.S. 181 (1985)). Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors.