THE LEAD

Staples, Health Care and Real Estate turned green while the chip fund fell 5.99%. Technology went red, and that means Monday’s bounce was only a bounce.

Procter & Gamble reported Thursday morning and had the kind of day the chip stocks would have paid for. Sales rose 4% to $23.3 billion, with organic sales also up 4%, per the company’s release. Our feed has earnings at $2.00 a share on the measure analysts track, against $1.88 expected, and one outlet says it topped estimates as the shares jumped. They closed up 5.58% at $165.59. One outlet says the company kept its outlook for the year, and another puts the hit from commodity costs at $1.4 billion.

It didn’t rally alone. All six of our staples companies rose: PepsiCo 3.07%, Coca-Cola 2.87%, Walmart 2.82%, Philip Morris 2.17% and Costco 1.99%. The regulated utilities went with them, NextEra up 4.62% and Duke 3.92%, and so did the drug makers, with Johnson & Johnson up 3.81%. Consumer Staples, Health Care and Real Estate all went from yellow to green. Two outlets describe the day as money rotating out of tech and into defensive companies. The board saw the same thing, one sector at a time.

The other side of the ledger is where the jitters live. Meta fell 6.98% after one outlet reported new spending commitments, Advanced Micro Devices lost 8.10% and Micron 6.26%, and another outlet points at Lam Research’s results as fresh pressure on the chips. Vistra fell 9.81% and NRG 5.43%. Three forces are pulling on this market at once: whether the AI spending pays back, crude at a five-month high as the attacks on Saudi Arabia continue, and a bond market that just dropped the ten-year 17 basis points in one session. On Wednesday the giants won that tug-of-war. On Thursday they lost it.

Somebody pays for a 5.99% day in the chip fund, and it isn’t only the people who own chip stocks. It’s everybody whose retirement account tracks the index, because the index is weighted toward exactly the companies that fell. The index lost 1.18% on a day when two-thirds of the big companies we track went up.

Before our conclusion, the strongest case that Thursday was a shakeout inside a bull market. Forty-three of our sixty-seven sit above trend, two more than Wednesday, on a day the index fell. The ten-year dropped back under 5%, which helps every company that borrows. And the bulls point to a calendar that has historically favored stocks in the year after a midterm election. On that reading, the giants are taking a breather and the rest of the market is picking up the slack.

We think that case has the breadth right and the leadership wrong. A market can rise without its biggest companies for a day or two. It’s much harder for a month, because the giants are most of the index. Technology is red, the market-risk gauge is red, and the Technology fund sits 3.93% under its fifty-day. The board wants the giants to stop falling before it calls this a rotation and not a retreat.

This is the bar that fired our test. The fund fell 3.29% to $182.34 and the gauge dropped to minus 143.05 from minus 99.38, under its own average of plus 3.39. Falling and under its average makes it red. The fund now sits 3.93% under its fifty-day, the weakest trend on the board.

The chips took the worst of it. Advanced Micro Devices lost 8.10% and fell back under its fifty-day, Micron 6.26%, Nvidia 4.40% and Broadcom 4.31%. Oracle gave up 2.78% and Microsoft 2.23%. Apple rose 1.23%, the only one of seven higher, and it’s one of two above trend along with Microsoft.

Micron is still up 190.21% on the year, so most of its holders are counting a smaller gain. Oracle’s holders need a 57.3% gain to get back to January, up from 52.9%, and Broadcom’s need 9.1%. The fund is quoted flat this morning. Microsoft reports Wednesday, per our feed.

One day of yellow, then green again. The gauge rose to plus 153.36 from plus 147.56, above its average of plus 73.61. The fund gained 1.32% to $181.30 and sits 6.09% above its fifty-day, second only to Consumer Staples.

Johnson & Johnson led at plus 3.81% and crossed back above its fifty-day, so all six now sit above trend. Intuitive Surgical rose 3.67%, Eli Lilly 2.83%, Gilead 2.36% and UnitedHealth 1.91%. AbbVie added 0.14%.

The fund is quoted down 0.51% this morning on a wide spread, too small a move to argue with the green. Intuitive Surgical’s holders need a 27.7% gain to get back to January, down from 32.4% on Wednesday. Eli Lilly and Gilead report next Thursday, per our feed.

Still green, and finally above its fifty-day. The gauge rose to plus 164.71 from plus 152.50, far above its average of minus 13.19. The fund gained 1.09% to $56.65 and closes 0.94% above its fifty-day, after a long stretch just under it.

Mastercard rose 1.70%, Visa 1.59% and Berkshire 1.48%. Bank of America and JPMorgan added less than a percent each, and Goldman Sachs fell 1.48%. Berkshire, Mastercard and Visa hold above trend.

A falling ten-year cuts both ways for a bank: cheaper money for its borrowers, thinner margins on its loans. The fund is quoted down 0.40% this morning, a small move against the green. Bank of America’s holders need a 7.7% gain to get back to January. Visa reports Tuesday and Mastercard next Thursday, per our feed.

A split decision. Home Depot rose 4.33%, Starbucks 2.86%, McDonald’s 2.59% and Nike 2.10%, while Amazon fell 4.57% and Tesla 3.08%. The fund slipped 0.45% to $115.01, because Amazon and Tesla carry the most weight in it.

The gauge fell to plus 122.31 from plus 167.28, still well above its average of plus 30.57, so it’s yellow. The fund sits 1.29% above its fifty-day. McDonald’s and Starbucks crossed back above theirs and Amazon slipped under, which leaves five of six above trend.

Amazon and Starbucks report next Thursday, per our feed. McDonald’s holders need a 20.8% gain to get back to January, Tesla’s 22.2% and Nike’s 67.0%.

Still red, and deeper. The gauge fell to minus 285.37 from minus 198.71, far under its average of minus 81.93, the weakest reading on the board. The fund lost 1.42% to $107.42, sits 3.87% under its fifty-day and is last of eleven on the year at minus 9.09%.

Meta fell 6.98% the day after its report and slipped under its fifty-day, and Alphabet lost 3.15%. The phone companies bounced: AT&T rose 3.79% and Verizon 3.76%, and Netflix added 3.09%. Disney rose 1.16% and is now the only one of six above trend.

One outlet ties Meta’s drop to new spending commitments. Its holders now sit 2.09% under where they started the year. AT&T’s income holders got back more than half of Wednesday’s 6.45% loss. Netflix’s holders need a 40.4% gain to get back to January. Verizon reports Monday and Alphabet Wednesday, per our feed, and this morning’s quote on the fund is too thin to read.

Two rungs up on Wednesday, two rungs down on Thursday. The gauge fell to minus 138.19 from minus 24.60, under its average of minus 74.73, so it’s red. The fund lost 0.94% to $166.73 and sits 3.43% under its fifty-day.

Caterpillar did most of the damage, down 4.89%, and Boeing lost 2.46%. The other four rose: Union Pacific 3.55% on its report, UPS 1.96%, Honeywell 1.67% and Deere 1.11%. Three of six hold above trend: Union Pacific, UPS and Honeywell.

Union Pacific reported Thursday; our feed has $3.53 a share against $3.47 expected. Boeing and UPS report Tuesday and Caterpillar next Thursday, per our feed. Boeing’s holders need a 16.3% gain to get back to January. In Thursday’s issue we called this green a bounce until it holds, since the fund was still under its trend line. It didn’t hold.

Crude went up and the oil stocks didn’t follow. Our crude fund rose 1.70%, and two outlets put Brent at a five-month high. The Energy fund fell 0.87% to $67.57, and the gauge cooled for a fourth day, to plus 77.40 from plus 102.21. It’s still above its average of plus 40.36, so the light stays yellow.

The refiners led the slide, Phillips 66 down 1.88% and Marathon Petroleum 1.86%. Exxon, EOG, ConocoPhillips and Chevron finished within a tenth of a percent of flat. All six sit above their fifty-day, and the fund sits 5.29% above its own and first on the year at plus 51.10%.

The crude fund is quoted up another 1.94% this morning and the Energy fund up 0.61%. One outlet reports that Saudi Aramco told staff at its headquarters to work from home as the attacks continue. Phillips 66 reports Wednesday, and Exxon and Chevron next Friday, per our feed.

The day belonged to this sector. The fund rose 3.31% to $89.99, the best of the eleven, and the gauge jumped to plus 142.33 from plus 106.45, back above its average of plus 31.19, so it’s green. The fund sits 6.71% above its fifty-day, the strongest trend on the board.

All six rose. Procter & Gamble led at plus 5.58% on its report, then PepsiCo 3.07%, Coca-Cola 2.87%, Walmart 2.82%, Philip Morris 2.17% and Costco 1.99%. All six sit above trend.

Procter & Gamble’s sales rose 4% to $23.3 billion, per its release, and the stock is quoted down 0.96% this morning. The fund shows no premarket trade. Coca-Cola reports Tuesday, per our feed. PepsiCo’s holders need a 3.2% gain to get back to January, down from 6.3% on Wednesday.

Thursday split the utilities in two. The regulated ones rallied: NextEra rose 4.62% and crossed back above its fifty-day, Duke rose 3.92%, Southern 3.79% and American Electric Power 2.55%. The power producers sold off: Vistra fell 9.81% and slipped under trend, and NRG lost 5.43%.

The fund gained 2.07% to $42.87, second-best of the eleven, and the gauge rose to plus 122.73 from plus 92.72, above its average of plus 16.16. It sits 2.32% above its fifty-day. Four of six hold above trend.

Utilities borrow heavily, so a 17-basis-point drop in the ten-year makes their money cheaper. NRG’s holders need a 71.2% gain to get back to January, up from 61.9%, and Vistra’s need 16.4%, from 5.0%. American Electric Power reports Wednesday, per our feed.

Copper and gold pulled one way, paint and industrial gases the other. Freeport-McMoRan fell 6.26% and Newmont 2.62%, with the copper fund down 2.71% and the gold fund down 2.63%. Sherwin-Williams rose 2.48%, Linde 1.96%, Air Products 1.84% and Ecolab 1.46%.

The fund rose 0.72% to $51.69, but the gauge slipped to plus 147.66 from plus 162.19. It’s still far above its average of minus 3.51, so it’s yellow. The fund sits 1.28% above its fifty-day, and four of six hold above trend; Newmont and Freeport-McMoRan are under.

Newmont reported Thursday; our feed has $2.20 a share against $1.96 expected, and the stock fell anyway, right along with gold. Sherwin-Williams, Ecolab and Freeport-McMoRan report Tuesday and Linde next Thursday, per our feed.

Landlords like cheaper money, and Thursday delivered some. The gauge rose to plus 122.50 from plus 112.47, above its average of minus 33.87, so it’s green. The fund gained 1.09% to $42.52 but still sits 0.94% under its fifty-day, so call it a bounce until it holds.

Public Storage led at plus 3.63% and Simon Property rose 3.16%, and both crossed back above their fifty-day. American Tower added 2.21%. Equinix fell 4.26% and Iron Mountain 3.54%, the two data-center landlords trading like tech stocks, and Prologis slipped 0.74%. Three of six now sit above trend.

Public Storage reports Monday, American Tower Tuesday and Equinix Wednesday, per our feed. Prologis holders need a 0.9% gain to get back to January.

ROTATION

Leaders and laggards in the roster. Micron leads at plus 190.21%, then Marathon Petroleum at plus 182.03%, Advanced Micro Devices at plus 132.04%, Phillips 66 at plus 120.64% and ConocoPhillips at plus 55.57%. The bottom three are NRG at minus 41.59%, Nike at minus 40.12% and Oracle at minus 36.43%. Micron’s lead over Marathon Petroleum shrank to 8.2 points from 22.2.

Above and below the fifty-day. Forty-three of the sixty-seven companies close above their own fifty-day average, up from forty-one. Six crossed up: Johnson & Johnson, McDonald’s, NextEra, Public Storage, Starbucks and Simon Property. Four crossed down: Advanced Micro Devices, Amazon, Meta and Vistra. By sector: Health Care six of six, Energy six of six, Consumer Staples six of six, Consumer Discretionary five of six, Utilities four of six, Materials four of six, Financials three of six, Industrials three of six, Real Estate three of six, Technology two of seven, Communication Services one of six. Seven of the eleven sector funds close above their own fifty-day: Consumer Staples, Health Care, Energy, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, Materials and Financials, which crossed up. The index proxy closes 0.55% under its own, from 0.62% above.

Relative strength callouts. Micron beats its own sector fund by 165 points on the year and Advanced Micro Devices by 107, while Oracle trails it by 62. Marathon Petroleum beats Energy by 131 points and Phillips 66 by 70. Iron Mountain beats Real Estate by 28 points. The worst relative performers against their own sectors are Oracle at minus 62, NRG at minus 42, Intuitive Surgical at minus 39 and Nike at minus 36.

One line on the consensus. The easy headline for Thursday is that tech got hammered. It did. Our count adds that forty-three of the sixty-seven rose and six of eleven sector funds closed higher on the same day.

EARNINGS CALENDAR

Twenty-two roster names fall inside the next seven calendar days, and none reports today. Four dates agree across our earnings feed and an independent schedule. Mastercard and Verizon had conflicting dates on Thursday; both passed without a report, and our feed now shows next Thursday and Monday. The rest come from our feed only. AbbVie, Chevron and Exxon follow next Friday, just outside the window. Procter & Gamble, Union Pacific and Newmont reported Thursday and are covered in their sections. We don’t assert before-the-bell or after-the-bell timing for any of them.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Thursday’s jobless claims came in at 194,000 against 200,000 expected. This morning’s flash surveys of purchasing managers close the week. Next week carries most of the calendar: durable goods, home prices, consumer confidence and new-home sales on Tuesday, the Fed’s decision on Wednesday the twenty-eighth with no change expected, and third-quarter growth and September’s spending-price index on Thursday. Dates, times, forecasts and Thursday’s claims figure come from our economic calendar feed.

LEADERS AND LAGGARDS

Every figure is measured from the January 2 opening price, for every company and every fund. The index proxy sits at plus 11.41% on the same basis, down from plus 12.74% on Wednesday.

NRG fell another 5.43% and took the bottom spot from Nike; its holders now need a 71.2% gain to get back to January. Oracle’s need is 57.3% and Nike’s 67.0%. At the top, Micron gave back 6.26% and its lead over Marathon Petroleum shrank to about eight points. None of these is a recommendation and none is a forecast.

FINAL WORD

The week ends with the market arguing with itself in plain view. On Monday the giants carried the index while most companies fell. On Tuesday the crowd rose. On Wednesday the giants came back. On Thursday the Nasdaq had its worst day since June, by two accounts, and forty-three of our sixty-seven rose anyway.

How does an index fall 1.18% on a day when two-thirds of the big companies we track go up? The index counts by size. A handful of giants, most of them in Technology and Communication Services, decide most of its move, and on Thursday those were the ones being sold. Our breadth count gives every company one vote. When the two disagree for a day, it’s noise. When they disagree all week, one of them is going to change its mind, and we count both every morning so the change shows up here first.

The new test: if the Technology gauge closes back above zero on any completed session through Thursday the twenty-ninth, Thursday’s drop was a shakeout and not the start of a retreat, and we’ll say that here in those words. Wednesday’s test, four or more of our seven yellows going red in one session, saw one on Thursday and runs through Wednesday; the breadth test runs through Tuesday. Consumer Staples at plus 142.33 is the newest green on the board, and the Sector Risk tab on the Golden Terminal will chart it against Technology as a ratio.

From the hardware-store counter. Carl restocked the cleaning aisle Thursday, which he does twice a year whether it needs it or not. Dish soap, laundry pods, the good sponges. He says it’s the only aisle in the store where nobody asks for a discount, because nobody wants to stand in it long enough to haggle.

A fellow who sells boat motors came in for a jug of degreaser and said his customers have gone quiet since summer. Nobody’s quit boating, he said. They’ve just started fixing the old motor instead of buying the new one. Carl rang him up and said that’s how he reads a year: by whether people buy the part or the whole thing.

Nobody at the counter mentioned that the soap company’s stock jumped 5.58% the same afternoon the chip stocks fell 5.99%. Carl doesn’t own either one. He did note that the degreaser went up a dollar.

Twenty-two roster names report inside the next seven calendar days, starting with Public Storage and Verizon on Monday and eight more on Tuesday, from Visa and Coca-Cola to Boeing and UPS. Procter & Gamble, Union Pacific and Newmont reported Thursday. Our desk keeps a separate counter on these names ahead of each print, and nothing in it has fired for this group.

FOR THE PROS

Every figure in this issue, checked against the market data it came from. Prices are Thursday’s completed daily bars, Treasury yields come from the Treasury’s own daily curve, and where two sources disagree we show both and say which one the body follows.

The Daily Update is published by Golden Cycles Research for informational and educational purposes only. It isn’t personalized advice and it isn’t a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Figures come from third-party data providers and government releases and can be revised. Past performance doesn’t predict future results.

The Daily Update · Golden Terminal · Vol. III, No. 220 · Friday, October 23, 2026