Vol. III · No. 217|Tuesday, October 20, 2026

Golden Terminal

Tuesday Trader’s Brief 30-Second Read · Cash Open 9:30 ET · Monday’s Completed Bars

BEFORE THE OPEN. Every light below comes from Monday’s completed bar. We took the premarket quotes at 7:09 ET. The index proxy is quoted down 0.14% and the chip fund down 1.32%, handing back most of Monday’s bounce. Crude’s fund is up 2.24%. None of it runs against a light by enough to flag, and none of it changes one. Housing starts land at 8:30 ET, after this issue was built.

Our six green sectors all lost their green on Monday’s bar. On Monday morning we wrote that four or more doing that on one bar would mean the damage had spread. So by the test we published, it spread, and we’re saying it in the words we promised. Financials, Energy, Utilities, Materials and Real Estate slipped to yellow. Industrials fell two rungs to red. Consumer Discretionary is the only green left. The board reads one green, eight yellow and two red.

The same bar moved the other way at the top. Technology came off red after six sessions and the market-risk gauge, the one we compute off the index itself, climbed from minus 85.20 to minus 51.14. That’s still 103.30 points under its own average, so it moves to yellow, not green. Nine of our twelve gauges changed color on one session.

The index rose 0.42% and only twenty-one of our sixty-seven companies went with it. Friday was the opposite: thirty-eight up on a down day. Monday the money went back to the giants. Amazon rose 4.98%, Tesla 3.76% and Micron 2.97%, and the chip fund gained 1.61%. Three of the eleven sector funds closed higher. Utilities fell 2.01%, the worst of the eleven. Two outlets have the S&P 500 up 0.41% and the Dow down 0.07%.

The bond market did the damage. The ten-year Treasury yield jumped six basis points to 5.15% and the two-year rose three to 4.77%, per the Treasury’s curve and a market wrap that agrees. Builder confidence fell to 29 in October against forecasts of 31 to 32, its lowest reading since June 2012 by two outlets’ count. The sectors that live on borrowed money, power companies, landlords and banks, took the hit.

Overnight, the chips are giving some of it back. The chip fund is quoted down 1.32% and Technology down 0.87%, against a yellow light, so there’s nothing to flag. Crude’s fund is quoted up 2.24% and Energy up 0.93%. Three sector funds show no premarket trade at all. A sector fund’s premarket quote is often a few thousand shares, traded while most of the market’s still asleep, which is why it never sets a light.

XLK · XLV · XLF · XLY · XLC · XLI · XLE · XLP · XLU · XLB · XLRE

Monday looked like Friday in a mirror. The index proxy rose 0.42% and the Nasdaq proxy 1.21%, led by Amazon, Tesla and the memory chips. Underneath, twenty-one of our sixty-seven companies rose and forty-six fell. On Friday it had been thirty-eight up while the index fell.

The board picked a side. All six of the sectors that were green going into Monday lost their green on one bar, and Industrials fell two rungs to red. Monday morning we published the test for this: if four or more of the six greens downgrade on a single session through Friday the twenty-third, the damage spread and Friday was the start of something broader. It took one session. We wrote down what being wrong would look like, and this is it. Friday’s read was that the selling would stay inside Technology and Communication Services. It didn’t stay there.

What spread wasn’t the chip selling. It was the bond market. The ten-year yield rose six basis points to 5.15%, and the funds that hold borrowers fell hardest: Utilities down 2.01%, Real Estate 1.16%, Financials 0.83%. Builder confidence came in at 29, down three points and the lowest since June 2012. The person on the other end of that 29 is the small builder carrying land loans at floating rates while the buyers he needs wait for a mortgage rate that keeps going the wrong way. The weekly survey in our calendar feed had the thirty-year mortgage at 7.5% last week, and Monday’s bond market didn’t help.

Before our conclusion, the strongest case that Monday was healthier than it looks. Five of the six downgrades were green to yellow, and by our own rule a yellow is a pause. The gauge stopped rising; it didn’t break below its average. Meanwhile the two biggest pieces of the index, Technology and the market-risk gauge itself, both improved, and money going back into the largest companies at the top of the market is what a bull market usually looks like after a scare. On that reading, Monday was money moving back to the front of the room.

We take half of that. The yellows are pauses and we’ll treat them that way. But a board that goes from six greens to one in a session, on a day the index rises, is telling us the index is being carried. Twenty-one of sixty-seven is a thin crowd for a rally. And the thing that turned every rate-sensitive sector at once, a ten-year at 5.15%, didn’t go away overnight. Breadth held at thirty-three companies above their own fifty-day average. That’s the number that tells us whether the crowd comes back.

Brad Hoppmann

Filed from Taintsville, Florida · Pop. < 1,000 ‘Taint in the Beltway, ‘taint in any backwards corrupt city, just a Florida man with a sharp pencil and a long memory of expensive lessons.

What To Watch Before The Open. Quotes from 7:09 ET. The index proxy is quoted down 0.14% on 228,122 shares, the Nasdaq proxy down 0.56% and the chip fund down 1.32%. Technology is quoted down 0.87% on 24,250 shares, Energy up 0.93%, Health Care up 0.72% and Consumer Staples up 0.71% on thin size, Financials up 0.32% and Utilities up 0.31%. None of those runs against a light by more than our three-quarters-of-a-percent line; most of the board is yellow, and a yellow has no direction to run against. Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Materials show no premarket trade, and the Communication Services and Real Estate quotes are too wide or too thin to use. The long Treasury fund is quoted up 0.40%, gold down 0.48% and the volatility fund up 1.52%. A premarket quote isn’t a forecast and it doesn’t move a light.

Friday, thirty-eight of sixty-seven rose while the index fell. Monday, twenty-one rose while the index climbed. Same market, mirror image.

The Reader, Investor & Active Trader Tiers

The full sector-by-sector breakdown, rotation snapshot, and validation data continue below.

The Engines of the Modern Economy

Six sessions of red ended Monday. The gauge climbed 67 points to minus 176.17, which is rising, so the light goes to yellow. It’s still 228.77 points under its own twenty-session average of plus 52.60, the deepest hole on the board. The fund rose 1.36% to $185.96 and sits 2.07% under its fifty-day.

Six of seven rose. Micron led at plus 2.97%, then Broadcom 1.78%, Advanced Micro Devices 1.76% and Nvidia 1.38%. Apple was the one that slipped, down 0.15%. Two of seven sit above their own fifty-day, Microsoft and Apple, and Advanced Micro Devices is right on its line.

Micron is up 206.61% since January and still sits 8% under its own fifty-day, so the people who bought it this fall are underwater even on a good day. Oracle’s holders need a 52.4% gain to get back to January.

Information Technology (XLK) closed Monday at $185.96, +1.36%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current -176.17, prior session -243.50, twenty-period average 52.60. Current above prior and below average, so the verdict is YELLOW, upgraded from RED on a move of plus 67.33 points. Cushion against its trailing average is minus 228.77, from minus 315.83.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Micron $904.90 +2.97%, Broadcom $334.59 +1.78%, Advanced Micro Devices $538.05 +1.76%, Nvidia $217.09 +1.38%, Oracle $129.59 +1.06%, Microsoft $533.52 +0.84%, Apple $342.94 -0.15%. Six advancers, one decliner, average +1.38%. Above the fifty-day: two of seven (Microsoft, Apple). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +27.69%, second of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($189.89) by 2.07%.

The Business of Staying Alive

Health Care’s gauge cooled again, to plus 159.24 from plus 226.69. It’s still well above its average of plus 49.50, so it stays yellow. The fund slipped 0.60% to $175.65 and sits 3.20% above its fifty-day, third-strongest on the board.

Intuitive Surgical rose 1.52% and UnitedHealth 1.36%. Gilead fell 2.00%, Eli Lilly 1.33%, AbbVie 0.96% and Johnson & Johnson 0.69%. Johnson & Johnson is the one name of six under its own trend.

Intuitive Surgical reports Tuesday. Its holders are down 23.57% on the year and need a 30.8% gain to get back to January.

Health Care (XLV) closed Monday at $175.65, -0.60%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 159.24, prior session 226.69, twenty-period average 49.50. Current below prior and above average, so the verdict is YELLOW, held from YELLOW on a move of minus 67.45 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 109.74, from plus 187.24.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Intuitive Surgical $433.18 +1.52%, UnitedHealth $406.88 +1.36%, Johnson & Johnson $253.79 -0.69%, AbbVie $282.68 -0.96%, Eli Lilly $1,240.34 -1.33%, Gilead $153.07 -2.00%. Two advancers, four decliners, average -0.35%. Above the fifty-day: five of six (Intuitive Surgical, UnitedHealth, AbbVie, Eli Lilly, Gilead). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +13.42%, third of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($170.20) by 3.20%.

The Lenders, The Clearers And The Underwriters

The banks didn’t like 5.15%. The gauge eased to plus 96.31 from plus 129.57, still well above its average of minus 61.23, so the light goes from green to yellow. The fund fell 0.83% to $55.06 and sits 2.07% under its fifty-day.

JPMorgan fell 1.82%, Bank of America 1.64% and Goldman Sachs 0.62%. The card networks and Berkshire barely moved: Visa up 0.08%, Berkshire up 0.04%, Mastercard down 0.17%. Those three are the ones above trend. Bank of America sits 14.3% under its fifty-day, the widest gap in the sector.

Bank of America’s holders are down 8.43% on the year and need a 9.2% gain to get back to January.

Financials (XLF) closed Monday at $55.06, -0.83%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 96.31, prior session 129.57, twenty-period average -61.23. Current below prior and above average, so the verdict is YELLOW, downgraded from GREEN on a move of minus 33.26 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 157.54, from plus 202.14.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Visa $402.92 +0.08%, Berkshire Hathaway $532.23 +0.04%, Mastercard $616.40 -0.17%, Goldman Sachs $875.78 -0.62%, Bank of America $50.39 -1.64%, JPMorgan $333.53 -1.82%. Two advancers, four decliners, average -0.69%. Above the fifty-day: three of six (Visa, Berkshire Hathaway, Mastercard). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +0.42%, eighth of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($56.23) by 2.07%.

Where The Paycheck Goes After The Bills

One green on the whole board, and it’s this one. The gauge rose to plus 148.52 from plus 111.68, above its average of minus 5.91. The fund gained 1.78% to $114.46, the best of the eleven, and crossed back above its fifty-day by 0.62%.

Two names did the work. Amazon rose 4.98% after a Morgan Stanley analyst named it a top pick, per two outlets, and Tesla rose 3.76% ahead of Wednesday’s report. Both crossed back above their fifty-day averages. Starbucks, Nike and Home Depot barely moved, and McDonald’s slipped 0.12%.

A green built on two stocks is a thin green, and we’d rather say so now than after the fact. Tesla’s holders are down 19.61% on the year and need 24.4% to get back to January. Nike’s need 72.0%.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) closed Monday at $114.46, +1.78%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 148.52, prior session 111.68, twenty-period average -5.91. Current above prior and above average, so the verdict is GREEN, upgraded from YELLOW on a move of plus 36.84 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 154.43, from plus 128.50.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Amazon $262.45 +4.98%, Tesla $368.06 +3.76%, Starbucks $97.87 +0.36%, Nike $37.21 +0.22%, Home Depot $309.88 +0.08%, McDonald’s $242.67 -0.12%. Five advancers, one decliner, average +1.55%. Above the fifty-day: two of six (Amazon, Tesla). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: -4.67%, tenth of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($113.76) by 0.62%.

The Pipes And The Programming

Red for a second session. The gauge fell to minus 139.41 from minus 66.78, under its average of minus 42.23. The fund slipped 0.21% to $110.09, sits 1.60% under its fifty-day and is last of eleven on the year at minus 6.82%.

Alphabet rose 1.05% and finished a dime under its own fifty-day. Everything else fell: Verizon 1.43%, AT&T 1.02%, Netflix 0.96%, Disney 0.90% and Meta 0.55%. Meta and Disney hold above trend.

Netflix reports Tuesday and Meta Wednesday. Netflix holders are down 25.79% on the year and need a 34.8% gain to get back to January.

Communication Services (XLC) closed Monday at $110.09, -0.21%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current -139.41, prior session -66.78, twenty-period average -42.23. Current below prior and below average, so the verdict is RED, held from RED on a move of minus 72.63 points. Cushion against its trailing average is minus 97.18, from minus 37.03.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Alphabet $344.18 +1.05%, Meta $705.44 -0.55%, Disney $109.59 -0.90%, Netflix $69.85 -0.96%, AT&T $23.20 -1.02%, Verizon $44.15 -1.43%. One advancer, five decliners, average -0.63%. Above the fifty-day: two of six (Meta, Disney). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: -6.82%, eleventh of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($111.88) by 1.60%.

The Things That Move Other Things

Friday’s green didn’t survive the weekend. The gauge fell to minus 108.18 from minus 53.33, under its average of minus 70.75, so the light drops two rungs to red. The fund fell 0.64% to $166.68 and sits 4.07% under its fifty-day, still the weakest trend of the eleven.

Our five-session test on this sector asked for a positive reading with at least two of six companies back above their own fifty-day. Session four printed minus 108.18 with zero above, after Union Pacific slipped under. One session remains and the test is as good as failed. Deere fell 2.32%, and Union Pacific, Honeywell and Caterpillar each fell about 0.7%. Boeing rose 0.64%.

Honeywell and Union Pacific report Thursday. Boeing’s holders need a 14.0% gain to get back to January.

Industrials (XLI) closed Monday at $166.68, -0.64%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current -108.18, prior session -53.33, twenty-period average -70.75. Current below prior and below average, so the verdict is RED, downgraded two rungs from GREEN on a move of minus 54.85 points. Cushion against its trailing average is minus 37.43, from plus 16.12.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Boeing $191.42 +0.64%, UPS $97.46 -0.02%, Caterpillar $725.79 -0.68%, Honeywell $209.98 -0.68%, Union Pacific $287.01 -0.70%, Deere $627.00 -2.32%. One advancer, five decliners, average -0.63%. Above the fifty-day: zero of six. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +7.11%, sixth of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($173.75) by 4.07%.

The Molecules Everything Else Runs On

Energy gave back its green after one session. The gauge eased to plus 126.33 from plus 144.98, well above its average of plus 10.22, so it’s yellow. The fund fell 0.64% to $67.80, sits 6.37% above its fifty-day and is still first on the year at plus 51.62%.

All six fell, and none by more than 1%: Marathon Petroleum 0.92%, Phillips 66 0.89%, ConocoPhillips 0.87%, Exxon 0.39%, Chevron 0.28% and EOG 0.23%. All six still sit above their own fifty-day, Marathon by 18.6%.

The barrel itself is doing something odd. Two outlets have November crude up about 2.2% near $103.66, while our crude fund, which holds a later contract, fell 0.59%. One of them tied the jump to attacks on Saudi targets. When the month in front and the month behind move in opposite directions, the market’s paying up for oil now, not later.

Energy (XLE) closed Monday at $67.80, -0.64%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 126.33, prior session 144.98, twenty-period average 10.22. Current below prior and above average, so the verdict is YELLOW, downgraded from GREEN on a move of minus 18.65 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 116.11, from plus 145.35.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: EOG Resources $157.65 -0.23%, Chevron $224.37 -0.28%, Exxon Mobil $178.28 -0.39%, ConocoPhillips $145.24 -0.87%, Phillips 66 $290.55 -0.89%, Marathon Petroleum $473.69 -0.92%. No advancers, six decliners, average -0.60%. Above the fifty-day: six of six. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +51.62%, first of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($63.74) by 6.37%.

The Aisles Nobody Skips

Staples cooled a second day, to plus 153.66 from plus 203.65. That’s still far above its average of minus 4.33, so the light holds at yellow. The fund fell 0.47% to $87.21 and sits 3.66% above its fifty-day.

PepsiCo rose 1.58% and Costco 0.65%. Philip Morris fell 2.02% and Procter & Gamble 1.04%, with Coca-Cola and Walmart slightly lower. Five of six hold above trend, PepsiCo just under its line.

Philip Morris reports Wednesday and Procter & Gamble Thursday. PepsiCo’s holders need a 7.2% gain to get back to January.

Consumer Staples (XLP) closed Monday at $87.21, -0.47%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 153.66, prior session 203.65, twenty-period average -4.33. Current below prior and above average, so the verdict is YELLOW, held from YELLOW on a move of minus 49.99 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 157.99, from plus 223.16.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: PepsiCo $133.57 +1.58%, Costco $995.53 +0.65%, Walmart $118.70 -0.09%, Coca-Cola $93.42 -0.51%, Procter & Gamble $157.69 -1.04%, Philip Morris $201.05 -2.02%. Two advancers, four decliners, average -0.24%. Above the fifty-day: five of six (Costco, Walmart, Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Philip Morris). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +12.22%, fourth of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($84.13) by 3.66%.

The Bill That Arrives Regardless

The power companies took the rate hit first. The fund fell 2.01% to $41.36, the worst of the eleven, and crossed back under its fifty-day by 1.46%. The gauge fell to plus 78.91 from plus 121.52, still above its average of minus 24.03, so it’s yellow, not red.

All six fell. NRG dropped 4.21%, Southern 2.09%, NextEra 2.04%, American Electric Power 1.90%, Duke 1.81% and Vistra 1.53%. Four of six still hold above trend.

Utilities borrow heavily to build, and their dividends compete with a ten-year paying 5.15%, so a six-point jump in that yield lands here first. NRG’s holders are down 38.49% on the year and need a 62.6% gain to get back to January. NextEra reports this week, Wednesday or Thursday depending on which schedule is right.

Utilities (XLU) closed Monday at $41.36, -2.01%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 78.91, prior session 121.52, twenty-period average -24.03. Current below prior and above average, so the verdict is YELLOW, downgraded from GREEN on a move of minus 42.61 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 102.94, from plus 158.20.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Vistra $149.70 -1.53%, Duke Energy $119.27 -1.81%, American Electric Power $124.72 -1.90%, NextEra $78.17 -2.04%, Southern $89.27 -2.09%, NRG $99.38 -4.21%. No advancers, six decliners, average -2.26%. Above the fifty-day: four of six (Vistra, Duke Energy, American Electric Power, Southern). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: -3.56%, ninth of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($41.97) by 1.46%.

The Raw Material Under Everything

Materials stopped rising, which is all it took. The gauge eased to plus 162.55 from plus 206.33 and sits 202.61 points above its average, still the widest positive cushion we have. The fund was flat, up 0.06% to $50.95, and sits 0.35% under its fifty-day.

Linde rose 1.01% and Freeport-McMoRan 0.30%. Sherwin-Williams fell 1.07% and slipped under its fifty-day, and Ecolab fell 1.02%. Newmont fell 0.50% with the gold fund down 0.61%. Three of six hold above trend.

Newmont reports Thursday.

Materials (XLB) closed Monday at $50.95, +0.06%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 162.55, prior session 206.33, twenty-period average -40.06. Current below prior and above average, so the verdict is YELLOW, downgraded from GREEN on a move of minus 43.78 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 202.61, from plus 260.54.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Linde $503.44 +1.01%, Freeport-McMoRan $69.75 +0.30%, Air Products $298.65 -0.31%, Newmont $118.01 -0.50%, Ecolab $285.94 -1.02%, Sherwin-Williams $331.61 -1.07%. Two advancers, four decliners, average -0.27%. Above the fifty-day: three of six (Linde, Air Products, Ecolab). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +11.93%, fifth of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($51.13) by 0.35%.

The Ground Rent On The Whole Economy

The landlords felt the ten-year too. The gauge fell to plus 48.01 from plus 95.80, above its average of minus 72.14, so the light goes to yellow. The fund fell 1.16% to $41.67 and sits 3.20% under its fifty-day.

Simon Property fell 1.44%, Prologis 1.32%, American Tower 1.21%, Equinix 1.04%, Public Storage 0.88% and Iron Mountain 0.85%. American Tower is still the only one above trend.

Public Storage reports next Monday. Prologis holders are down 2.86% on the year.

Real Estate (XLRE) closed Monday at $41.67, -1.16%. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 48.01, prior session 95.80, twenty-period average -72.14. Current below prior and above average, so the verdict is YELLOW, downgraded from GREEN on a move of minus 47.79 points. Cushion against its trailing average is plus 120.15, from plus 176.56.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Iron Mountain $111.55 -0.85%, Public Storage $295.69 -0.88%, Equinix $975.71 -1.04%, American Tower $183.03 -1.21%, Prologis $124.09 -1.32%, Simon Property $202.49 -1.44%. No advancers, six decliners, average -1.12%. Above the fifty-day: one of six (American Tower). Sector fund year to date on a January 2 open basis: +3.30%, seventh of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($43.05) by 3.20%.

Leaders and laggards in the roster. Micron leads at plus 206.61%, then Marathon Petroleum at plus 190.88%, Advanced Micro Devices at plus 145.80%, Phillips 66 at plus 125.24% and ConocoPhillips at plus 55.15%. The bottom three are Nike at minus 41.87%, NRG at minus 38.49% and Oracle at minus 34.37%. Micron’s lead over Marathon Petroleum widened back to 15.7 points from 4.2 on Friday.

Above and below the fifty-day. Thirty-three of the sixty-seven companies close above their own fifty-day average, unchanged. Amazon and Tesla crossed up; Sherwin-Williams and Union Pacific crossed down. By sector: Energy six of six, Health Care five of six, Consumer Staples five of six, Utilities four of six, Financials three of six, Materials three of six, Technology two of seven, Consumer Discretionary two of six, Communication Services two of six, Real Estate one of six, Industrials zero of six. Four of the eleven sector funds close above their own fifty-day: Energy, Consumer Staples, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary, which crossed up as Utilities crossed down. The index proxy closes 0.25% under its own, from 0.68% under.

Relative strength callouts. Micron beats its own sector fund by 179 points on the year and Advanced Micro Devices by 118, while Oracle trails it by 62. Marathon Petroleum beats Energy by 139 points and Phillips 66 by 74. Iron Mountain beats Real Estate by 31 points. The worst relative performers against their own sectors are Oracle at minus 62, Intuitive Surgical at minus 37, Nike at minus 37 and NRG at minus 35.

One line on the consensus. The easy headline for Monday is that tech came back. It did, and the chip fund rose 1.61%. Our count says forty-six of sixty-seven companies fell the same day, and the ones that fell hardest were the ones that borrow.

Fourteen roster names fall inside the next seven calendar days. Ten dates agree across our earnings feed and an independent schedule, and Meta’s matches the company’s own announcement. NextEra and Verizon have conflicting dates, so both show the range. Mastercard and Public Storage each come from a single source. We don’t assert before-the-bell or after-the-bell timing for any of them.

Housing again leads the week. September starts are forecast at an annual pace of 1.30 million this morning, against 1.275 million in August, and pending home sales follow at 10:00. Thursday’s jobless claims are forecast near 200,000, and Friday’s flash surveys of purchasing managers close the week. The Fed decides on October 28. Dates, times and forecasts are from our economic calendar feed.

Every figure is measured from the January 2 opening price, for every company and every fund. The index proxy sits at plus 11.78% on the same basis, up from plus 11.30% on Friday.

The bottom of the table moved the wrong way for NRG. Its holders need a 62.6% gain to reach January, up from 55.7% on Friday, after the worst day of any company on our roster. Oracle’s climb eased to 52.4% and Nike’s to 72.0%. At the top, Micron pulled away from Marathon Petroleum again. None of these is a recommendation and none is a forecast.

Monday we published what being wrong would look like, and Monday’s bar delivered it. All six green sectors downgraded on one session. Friday’s selling didn’t stay in Technology. It came back as a bond-market problem and hit everything that borrows: utilities, landlords, banks and the industrial companies. Meanwhile the index rose, because the money went back into Amazon, Tesla and the chips.

One thing to know about all those yellows. A yellow means the gauge stopped rising but is still above its own recent average. It’s a pause. A red needs both: falling, and below the average. Eight of our eleven sectors are paused right now, and two are red. Pauses resolve one of two ways, and this week’s earnings and Thursday’s jobless claims will push them one way or the other.

The new test is specific. If the Technology gauge is back in red on any completed session through Friday the twenty-third, Monday’s bounce was only a bounce, and we’ll say that here in those words. Consumer Discretionary at plus 148.52 is the only green left on a board that had six of them on Friday, and the Sector Risk tab on the Golden Terminal will chart it against the S&P as a single line.

Somebody you know will hear this morning that tech stocks bounced on Monday. They did: the chip fund rose 1.61% and Amazon nearly 5%. Our count also says forty-six of the sixty-seven big companies we track fell the same day, and the ten-year Treasury yield jumped to 5.15%. If they’d find that split useful, this issue forwards cleanly.

The Daily Update tracks eleven sector verdicts on completed daily bars. Supercycle Trader works the longer arc underneath them: the multi-year cycles in commodities, credit and currency that decide which sectors get a decade and which get a quarter. A ten-year Treasury at 5.15%, builder confidence at its lowest since 2012, Energy first on the year at plus 51.62% and a crude fund up 134.99% since January are the kind of configuration that arc is built to read.

Fourteen roster names report inside the next seven calendar days, starting with Intuitive Surgical and Netflix on Tuesday and Meta, Tesla, AT&T and Philip Morris on Wednesday. Our desk keeps a separate counter on these names ahead of each print, and nothing in it has fired for this group.

Every figure in this issue, checked against the market data it came from. Prices are Monday’s completed daily bars, Treasury yields come from the Treasury’s own daily curve, and where two sources disagree we show both and say which one the body follows.

The Daily Update is published by Golden Terminal for informational and educational purposes only. It isn’t personalized advice and it isn’t a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Figures come from third-party data providers and government releases and can be revised. Past performance doesn’t predict future results.

The Daily Update · Golden Terminal · Vol. III, No. 217 · Tuesday, October 20, 2026