THE LEAD

Wednesday’s selling in Vistra and Micron reached the rest of the AI trade by Thursday’s late morning, and the index proxy gave back Wednesday’s gain. Every light here still comes from Wednesday’s completed bar.

Vistra has been one of the market’s favorite ways to own the AI boom without owning a chip: a power company with data centers for customers. On Wednesday that customer list became the problem. Democrats won governor’s races, Texas among them, on promises of a tougher line toward data-center construction, per two outlets, and Vistra fell 13.83% while NRG fell 13.52%. Some analysts quoted by one outlet called the selling an excessive knee-jerk reaction. Vistra reports Friday before the open, per our feed and one outlet.

The same worry ran down the supply chain. Micron fell 7.00%, and Nvidia and Broadcom fell with it, because a memory shortage only pays while the buildings keep going up, as one outlet put it. The companies that pay for those buildings went the other way: Microsoft, Amazon and Apple each rose more than 5%, and two outlets made the case that a slower build-out could favor the biggest spenders. We started following who pays for the AI build-out on October 16. Wednesday was the first day the bill looked negotiable from the spender’s side of the table.

Underneath the AI story, the crowd finally showed up. Fifty-one of our sixty-seven companies rose, the same count as October 29, when the index proxy fell anyway; this time it came along. Breadth rose to forty-five. The damage was concentrated, and a drop like Vistra’s lands on the people who bought a power company because it felt steadier than a chip stock: the utility shelf of a retirement account just had a chip stock’s day.

The oil market had a big day of its own. Oil’s fund fell 8.07% on hopes for an end to the Iran war, per two outlets, and Energy was the worst of the eleven sector funds. The ten-year yield slipped to 4.90%, and gold’s fund rose 3.68% anyway, so not every buyer was celebrating.

The skeptics have real ammunition today, and the market handed them more by late morning. A one-day rally on an election surprise isn’t a trend: the chip fund is down 7.97% at 11:30 ET, and two outlets tie the selling to fears of tighter AI rules after the election. The index proxy closed Wednesday 25 cents under its fifty-day average and sits 2.81% under it now, the market’s version of running for the bus and watching it pull away.

We’d take Wednesday’s green light at its word and still hold the index to the standard it missed: a close over its fifty-day. The market-risk light is green, seven of eleven sectors are green and breadth sat at forty-five on Wednesday’s close. I liked this board better than I had in two weeks, and the chip selling is the reason I’m not adding to that view before tonight’s bar. Our breadth test settles on today’s close, and a down day this wide puts forty within reach.

The roster split down the middle of the AI trade. Microsoft rose 6.68% and Apple 5.31%, while Micron fell 7.00%, Nvidia 3.17% and Broadcom 2.00%. The gauge rose to minus 120.52 from minus 145.86 but stays under its own average of minus 90.84, which keeps it yellow. The fund was flat, down 0.01% to $176.50, and sits 6.78% under its fifty-day.

Apple crossed back over its trend line, so two of seven now sit above it. Advanced Micro Devices added 1.01% the day after its results, and one outlet, citing Bloomberg, reports Micron has suspended a $4.5 billion Taiwan factory over a labor dispute.

Oracle’s holders need a 59.6% gain to get back to January. By 11:30 ET, Micron is down 10.92% and the fund 5.53%, the worst of the eleven.

All six rose, led by Intuitive Surgical at 9.38%, Gilead at 4.19% and Johnson & Johnson at 3.81%. The gauge climbed to plus 154.97 from plus 107.36 and cleared its average of plus 131.13, so red goes straight to green. The fund gained 3.06% to $189.66.

All six sit above trend and the fund sits 9.70% above its fifty-day, second of eleven on the year at plus 22.46%. We wrote on Wednesday that the next few bars had to settle the gap between a red light and a healthy-looking fund. One bar did.

Intuitive Surgical’s holders need a 17.6% gain to get back to January. The fund is down 0.66% at 11:30 ET.

All six rose, and by nearly the same amount. JPMorgan gained 4.18%, Bank of America 3.97% and Berkshire Hathaway 3.95%. The gauge jumped to plus 222.94 from plus 125.74, more than twice its average of plus 94.37, so Tuesday’s yellow becomes green. The fund rose 3.51% to $59.20 and sits 5.82% above its fifty-day.

JPMorgan crossed back over its trend line, so four of six sit above it; Bank of America and Goldman Sachs don’t. Berkshire reports Saturday, per our feed.

Bank of America’s holders need a 6.6% gain to get back to January. The fund is down 1.77% at 11:30 ET, past our three-quarter-point line against a green light.

McDonald’s led the best sector fund of the day. It rose 6.53% after a quarter that beat on earnings and missed on revenue, with U.S. comparable sales down 0.2%, two outlets confirming each. Home Depot also rose 6.53% and Amazon 6.12%; only Tesla fell, down 3.34%. The gauge jumped to plus 253.43 from plus 137.64, far over its average of plus 119.86. The fund gained 4.26% to $122.33.

Amazon crossed back over its trend line, so all six now sit above it, and the fund sits 7.96% above its fifty-day.

Nike’s holders need a 58.1% gain to get back to January and McDonald’s 8.9%. The fund is down 3.61% at 11:30 ET, past our three-quarter-point line against a green light.

Every name rose. Netflix gained 4.68%, Disney 4.18% and Alphabet 3.18%. The gauge climbed to minus 39.80 from minus 106.76 and now sits 90.30 points over its average of minus 130.10, a far thicker cushion than Tuesday’s. The fund rose 3.47% to $104.96.

Disney is still the only one of six above trend, the fund sits 4.67% under its fifty-day, and it’s last of eleven on the year at minus 11.17%, so this green rests on momentum, with price yet to follow.

Netflix’s holders need a 41.8% gain to get back to January. The fund is down 0.40% at 11:30 ET.

Caterpillar fell 5.23% while the other five rose, UPS by 4.71%, Boeing 2.13% and Honeywell 1.97%. The fund still lost 1.09% to $169.46. The gauge dropped to plus 74.41 from plus 210.93; it’s still over its average of minus 44.18, so green becomes yellow.

The fund slipped back under its fifty-day by 0.40%, one session after crossing over it. Four of six names sit above trend. No source we’ve found explains Caterpillar’s drop.

Boeing’s holders need a 23.2% gain to get back to January. Caterpillar is down another 3.69% and the fund 2.27% at 11:30 ET.

All six fell, and a refiner fell hardest. Marathon Petroleum lost 8.11%, EOG 5.23% and ConocoPhillips 5.17%. The gauge plunged to minus 202.19 from minus 33.46, far under its average of plus 89.14. The fund lost 4.74% to $63.52, the worst of the eleven.

EOG, Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 crossed under their trend lines, leaving three of six above, and the fund slipped 2.43% under its own fifty-day. It’s still first of eleven on the year at plus 42.04%, and the crude fund is still up 112.49% since January.

The fund is up 0.69% at 11:30 ET against its red light, just inside our three-quarter-point line, and the crude fund is up 1.90%. ConocoPhillips shows results this morning in our feed and is up 1.58%; EOG reports today, per our feed.

One day after falling two rungs to red, the grocery aisle climbed two rungs back. PepsiCo rose 3.75%, Walmart 3.45% and Procter & Gamble 3.25%, and all six rose. The gauge climbed to plus 163.47 from plus 88.83, over its average of plus 123.60. The fund gained 3.36% to $91.94.

All six sit above trend and the fund sits 8.37% above its fifty-day. Procter & Gamble rose on a day the chip fund fell 2.75%, so the soap took this round back from the silicon.

PepsiCo’s holders need a 0.6% gain to get back to January. The fund is up 0.26% at 11:30 ET, one of two sector funds higher.

Utilities split in two on Wednesday. NextEra gained 4.89% and Duke 2.43%, while Vistra fell 13.83% and NRG 13.52%, the two worst moves on our roster. The fund still rose 0.44% to $43.61, but the gauge slipped to plus 103.38 from plus 122.85 and dipped under its average of plus 105.19, so yellow becomes red.

It’s a thin red: the gauge sits 1.81 points under its average, and the fund sits 4.38% above its fifty-day. Vistra and NRG sit under their trend lines; the other four sit above.

NRG’s holders need a 94.1% gain to get back to January and Vistra’s 36.2%. Vistra reports Friday before the open, per our feed and one outlet, and NRG next Monday, per our feed. Duke posted results this morning and is up 1.13%. Vistra is down another 5.69% at 11:30 ET and the fund 0.49%.

Gold led. Newmont rose 9.90% as gold’s fund gained 3.68%, and Sherwin-Williams rebounded 6.64%. All six rose. The gauge climbed to plus 156.02 from plus 123.78, over its average of plus 100.42. The fund gained 2.49% to $53.90 and sits 5.73% above its fifty-day.

Four of six sit above trend; Newmont and Freeport-McMoRan still don’t. Air Products reported this morning: adjusted earnings of $3.61 a share, per its release and our feed, with fiscal 2027 guidance of $14.15 to $14.50, per its release.

The fund is down 1.95% at 11:30 ET, past our three-quarter-point line against a green light.

All six rose. American Tower gained 4.04%, Equinix 3.91% and Simon Property 2.89%, as the ten-year yield fell 5 basis points to 4.90%. The gauge jumped to plus 239.92 from plus 153.04, far over its average of plus 85.49. The fund gained 3.32% to $45.12 and sits 5.96% above its fifty-day.

Equinix crossed over its trend line, so five of six sit above it; Prologis is the holdout. Iron Mountain shows results this morning in our feed, and Simon Property reports today, per our feed.

Iron Mountain is down 7.94% at 11:30 ET despite a quarter that beat estimates, per one outlet, and the fund is down 1.48%, past our three-quarter-point line against a green light.

ROTATION

Leaders and laggards in the roster. Micron leads at plus 169.46%, then Marathon Petroleum at plus 141.13%, Advanced Micro Devices at plus 123.29%, Phillips 66 at plus 101.26% and ConocoPhillips at plus 46.29%. The bottom three are NRG at minus 48.48%, Oracle at minus 37.34% and Nike at minus 36.73%. Micron gave back 20.28 points of its lead in one session, and NRG fell further into last.

Above and below the fifty-day. Forty-five of the sixty-seven companies close above their own fifty-day average, up from forty-four. Apple, Amazon, Equinix and JPMorgan crossed up; EOG, Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 crossed down. By sector: Health Care six of six, Consumer Staples six of six, Consumer Discretionary six of six, Real Estate five of six, Financials four of six, Industrials four of six, Materials four of six, Utilities four of six, Energy three of six, Technology two of seven, Communication Services one of six. Seven of the eleven sector funds close above their own fifty-day, down from nine, as Industrials and Energy crossed under; Technology and Communication Services stay under. The index proxy closes 0.03% under its own, from 1.65%.

Relative strength callouts. Micron beats its own sector fund by 148 points on the year and Advanced Micro Devices by 102, while Oracle trails it by 59. Marathon Petroleum beats Energy by 99 points and Phillips 66 by 59. Deere beats Industrials by 36 points and Iron Mountain beats Real Estate by 31. The worst relative performers against their own sectors are Oracle at minus 59, NRG at minus 50, Nike at minus 39 and Intuitive Surgical at minus 37.

One line on the consensus. The easy headline on Wednesday was the biggest post-midterm rally in decades. Our count added that the companies selling power and memory to data centers fell hard the same day fifty-one of sixty-seven rose, and by Thursday’s late morning the rest of the chip trade had followed them.

EARNINGS CALENDAR

Ten roster names report inside the next seven calendar days, from Air Products this morning through NRG next Monday. Air Products and Duke Energy posted results this morning in company releases; ConocoPhillips and Iron Mountain show results in our feed only. Vistra’s date comes from our feed and one outlet; the rest come from our feed only, and we don’t assert before-the-bell or after-the-bell timing for them.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Wednesday’s private payroll count from ADP came in at 86,000 against 69,000 expected, and the services survey printed 54.5, per our feed; we haven’t seen either figure confirmed elsewhere. For Friday’s payrolls our feed shows a forecast of 65,000 jobs with unemployment at 4.2%. October consumer prices land Tuesday.

LEADERS AND LAGGARDS

Every figure is measured from the January 2 opening price, for every company and every fund. The index proxy sits at plus 11.83% on the same basis, up from plus 10.01% on Tuesday.

NRG’s holders need a 94.1% gain to get back to January, up from 67.9% one session earlier, and Vistra’s need jumped to 36.2% from 17.4%. Oracle’s is 59.6%, Nike’s 58.1% and Netflix’s 41.8%. A 13.52% day from a deep hole adds more than twenty-six points to the climb back, which is the arithmetic behind why a loss hurts more than the same-size gain helps. None of these is a recommendation and none is a forecast.

FINAL WORD

The board reads seven green, two yellow and two red under a green market-risk light. Nine lights changed on Wednesday’s bar, counting the market-risk light, and the two reds carry the day’s two stories: Energy on the oil drop, and Utilities on Vistra and NRG.

A word on the market-risk light. It runs the same gauge we use on every sector, but on the index proxy itself, so it reads the whole market’s momentum against its own recent average instead of any one group’s. On Wednesday it went from minus 161.72 to plus 7.47, over its average of minus 31.57. That’s how it can turn green on a day the index proxy still closed under its fifty-day: one measures the last few weeks of momentum, the other the last ten weeks of price.

Our open test, set October 30: if fewer than forty of our sixty-seven companies close above their own fifty-day average on any completed session through Thursday, November 5, October 29’s breadth was a hiding place and not a broadening, and we’ll say so here. Wednesday’s count was forty-five, up one, and today’s close settles it. With the index proxy down 2.78% by late morning, forty is in play. Vistra against the Utilities fund is one ratio chart in the Sector Risk tab on the Golden Terminal.

Ten roster names report inside the next seven calendar days, from Air Products this morning through NRG next Monday. Our desk keeps a separate counter on these names ahead of each print, and nothing in it has fired for this group.

FOR THE PROS

Every figure in this issue, checked against the market data it came from. Prices are Wednesday’s completed daily bars, Treasury yields come from the Treasury’s own daily curve, and where two sources disagree we show both and say which one the body follows.

The Daily Update is published by Golden Cycles Research for informational and educational purposes only. It isn’t personalized advice and it isn’t a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Figures come from third-party data providers and government releases and can be revised. Past performance doesn’t predict future results.

The Daily Update · Golden Terminal · Vol. III, No. 231 · Thursday, November 5, 2026