Vol. III · No. 197|Friday, September 25, 2026

Golden Terminal

Friday Trader’s Brief 30-Second Read · Cash Open 9:30 ET · Durable Goods 8:30 · Baker Hughes 1:00 · CFTC 3:30

AT THE OPEN, AND ONE HOUR IN. The premarket read published in this issue was bid across the board. The open did not honor it. The S&P proxy gapped up to $768.78 and has given the gap back, trading $767.65 about an hour in, up 0.05%. The Nasdaq proxy is up 0.20%, the Dow proxy 0.17%, and the small-cap proxy has turned negative at minus 0.23%. Both of the board’s green lights are the two worst sectors of the session so far. Communication Services is off 1.03%, the weakest on the board, one session after being upgraded two steps to green. Health Care is off 0.62% in its third session of green. The two strongest are Technology, up 0.68% on a yellow light whose record cushion is unwinding, and Industrials, up 0.44% on a light that was downgraded yesterday. Energy is off 0.93% with the crude proxy down 1.62%. The long-bond fund is off 0.39%, so the pause in the bond selloff is not yet visible in the price of duration. Microsoft is up 2.71% and Costco is up 2.27% after opening lower. None of this moves a completed-bar verdict, and the board below is still Thursday’s. It is reported here because it runs against what this letter said before the bell, which is when it needs saying.

The index went nowhere and six of eleven lights changed color. The S&P 500 proxy fell 0.08% on Thursday and the Nasdaq proxy fell 0.01%, the flattest pair of closes in weeks. Underneath them, Communication Services was upgraded two steps from red to green, Financials and Utilities were upgraded from red to yellow, and Industrials, Materials and Consumer Staples were downgraded. Three up, three down, in one session. The board now reads two green, six yellow and three red.

Friday’s open is already arguing with it. An hour into the session the two green lights are the two worst sectors on the board, Communication Services off 1.03% and Health Care off 0.62%, while Technology and Industrials lead on yellow lights. Microsoft, whose reading collapsed 85 points on Thursday to red on both bases, is the strongest name on the roster at plus 2.71%. Costco opened lower on its beat and reversed to plus 2.27%. A completed-bar verdict doesn’t move on an hour of trading, and none of these have. They’re reported because they run the other way.

Wednesday and Thursday shared a cause and produced opposite behavior. The long end sold off both days. On Wednesday everything fell together, five lights went down, one went up, and the roster average matched the index to two decimal places. On Thursday the roster average fell 0.295% while the index fell 0.08%, meaning the average roster name lost roughly four times what the index did, and the money still found six sectors to move between. Same input. Different transmission.

A correction is owed and it belongs at the top. On Thursday we called Communication Services’ two-step fall from green to red the board’s most decisive statement of the week, on a 99.2-point decline that was the largest single-session move it had produced. It reversed in one bar, 49.5 points the other way, with all six roster names higher. A two-step verdict that unwinds inside a session wasn’t a statement, and reporting it as one overstated what a twenty-day participation gauge can carry. The number was right. The weight placed on it wasn’t.

The thirty-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2004. The bond selloff deepened again on Thursday, with the ten-year printing a fresh nineteen-year high above 5.1%. Reported closing levels differ across feeds and neither of this desk’s own rate series has published a Thursday figure yet, so no precise level is asserted here. The long-bond fund fell 1.29%, which is our own corroboration that yields rose again. By Friday morning the selloff had paused and Treasuries had steadied.

Costco beat on both lines after the close and Nike was downgraded before the open. Costco reported $6.75 a share against a $6.55 consensus on $95.7 billion of revenue against $94.85 billion. It was offered about 1.0% before the bell, opened at $887.00, and has since traded to $916.67, up 2.27%. Bank of America cut Nike to Underperform and took its price objective to $30 from $47, below Thursday’s close of $35.99, on a company that has beaten three quarters running and reports again next Thursday. Nike opened at $35.25 and is off about 0.96%.

XLC   XLV   XLK   XLE   XLF   XLI   XLY   XLU   XLB   XLP   XLRE

Thursday produced the flattest index close of the month sitting on top of the busiest verdict board of the month, and both halves of that sentence are measured from the same tape. The S&P 500 proxy closed at $767.18, down 0.08%. The Nasdaq proxy closed at $741.10, down 0.01%. A reader who checked only those two numbers would conclude that nothing happened. Underneath them, six of eleven sector lights changed color, three in each direction, which is the largest two-way turnover this engine has recorded in a single session.

What makes it worth an issue is the contrast with Wednesday. The cause was the same on both days: the long end of the Treasury curve sold off, and on Thursday the thirty-year yield reached its highest level since 2004. On Wednesday that single input moved everything together. Five lights went down, one went up, and the equal-weighted roster average matched the cap-weighted index to two decimal places. On Thursday the same input produced dispersion instead of correlation. The roster average fell 0.295% against the index’s 0.08%, so the average name on this roster lost about four times what the index lost, and the index held anyway because the largest companies in it did.

The biggest single number of the day wasn’t on the board. Freddie Mac’s thirty-year mortgage survey printed 7.03% on Thursday, up from 6.95%, a fifth consecutive weekly increase, against 6.30% a year ago. That’s 73 basis points in twelve months on the same instrument. On a $400,000 thirty-year loan the arithmetic is $2,476 a month at last year’s rate and $2,669 a month at Thursday’s, a difference of about $193 every month and roughly $2,300 a year. The house is the same house. The buyer is the same buyer. The rate moved and somebody now writes a larger check every month for thirty years to the same lender for the same roof. That bill is generated by the long end of the Treasury curve, which is the thing that reached a twenty-two-year high on Thursday, and the people who receive it weren’t consulted about it.

The case against reading any of this as caution is available and it isn’t weak. The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record earlier this week. The largest American companies broke out together after roughly a year of going sideways. Most developed equity markets sit within a few percent of all-time highs. On that reading, a twenty-day participation gauge flipping six lights in a session is a measurement artifact of a market rotating internally while the aggregate grinds higher, and the right response to a board full of yellow is patience rather than defense. Note that our own board moved back toward the middle on Thursday, at two green, six yellow and three red with a yellow market-risk gauge, which is an undecided board rather than a bearish one. On Wednesday we observed that three of the four desks whose work sits behind this page had landed on the same bearish side, and named the crowding as a risk. That crowding dissolved in one session. A consensus that doesn’t survive forty-eight hours wasn’t a consensus, and we were part of it.

One hour of Friday trading isn’t a verdict and it isn’t treated as one here, but it’s the first live test of a board built on Thursday, and it’s failing in a specific direction. Both green lights are the session’s two worst sectors. The two leaders carry yellow lights, one of them downgraded yesterday. Microsoft, whose reading fell 85.4 points on Thursday to red on both bases, is the best name on the roster this morning. Costco, which this letter described before the bell as a beat the market had already priced, opened lower and is up better than two percent. Three claims in this issue are being argued with by the tape inside an hour of publication, and naming them now costs less than defending them on Monday.

What the engine will say plainly is where the money went. Communication Services rose 1.27% with all six roster names higher, the only unanimous advance on the board. Health Care rose 0.63% and printed its first positive reading of this cycle, moving from fifth to third on the year. Energy rose 0.37% for a second straight session. Against them, Industrials, Materials and Utilities each went zero for six, and Industrials posted the worst roster average on the board at minus 1.547%. Three sectors unanimously down, one unanimously up, and an index that moved eight hundredths of one percent. That’s the whole session.

Brad Hoppmann

Filed from Taintsville, Florida · Pop. < 1,000‘Taint in the Beltway, ‘taint in any backwards corrupt city, just a Florida man with a sharp pencil and a long memory of expensive lessons.

What to Watch Into the Close Durable goods for August came in unchanged against an expected decline. Fed speakers at 2:00. Baker Hughes rig count at 1:00 against 453 expected. CFTC positioning at 3:30. Whether Communication Services closes the session as the worst sector on the board one day after being upgraded two steps to green. Whether Microsoft holds a two-percent advance on a reading that went red on both bases Thursday. Whether Energy’s decline on Hormuz diplomacy holds into the close.

Both green lights are the session’s two worst sectors. Both leaders carry yellow.

The Reader, Investor & Active Trader Tiers

The full sector-by-sector breakdown, rotation snapshot, and validation data continue below.

The Attention Business

Sector CCI(20) Verdict: GREEN, as of Thursday’s close · XLC (current +63.3 vs. prior +13.8, 20-day average +46.7) · session +1.27%

GREEN as of Thursday’s close, upgraded two steps from red in a single session. The reading rose 49.5 points. The fund was bid about 0.18% before the bell on 284 premarket shares, indicative only, and is off 1.03% an hour into Friday, the worst sector on the board.

Wednesday this sector fell 99.2 points and went from green to red in one bar, and this letter called that the most decisive statement the board made all week. Thursday it rose 49.5 points and went from red to green in one bar. All six roster names closed higher, the only sector on the board to go six for six, and the fund added 1.27% on a day the index lost 0.08%. A two-step move that unwinds inside one session wasn’t a statement about anything. It was a wide swing in a number, and we reported it as signal.

The mechanism is that the twenty-day average this reading gets measured against sits at +46.7, so a sector trading anywhere near its own recent range can cross that line twice in forty-eight hours without the underlying business changing at all. That’s a property of a twenty-day participation gauge and not a defect in the tape. It’s also the reason a one-bar verdict change gets reported here with the size of the move attached, so the reader can size it themselves.

The sector is still ninth of eleven on the year at minus 3.5% and it’s one of only four sector funds trading above its fifty-day average. Momentum and trend point opposite ways on this name, and on Thursday the trend won.

Meta Platforms META rose 4.50% to $777.59, the largest move on the roster by 182 basis points and a gain of 323 basis points on its own sector fund. It is up 17.3% on the year and its own momentum reading improved from +153.9 to +160.9, the strongest single-name reading on the watchlist. The rally followed Wednesday evening’s product event, and the stock had been offered 1.88% before Wednesday’s bell on the same news. Whatever the event was worth, the market took two sessions and one complete reversal to decide, and it is unwinding again: the stock opened $768.85 and trades about $755.66 an hour into Friday, off 2.84%, the worst large-cap move on the roster.

Alphabet GOOGL added 1.34% to $342.36 after falling 3.80% on Wednesday, recovering about a third of the decline. It holds plus 8.0% on the year.

Walt Disney DIS rose 2.03% to $105.56 and beat its sector fund by 76 basis points. It remains down 6.9% on the year.

At the open: opened $113.46 and trades $112.81 about an hour in, off 1.03%, the worst sector on the board. The premarket bid recorded above was wrong within the hour. The green light stands on Thursday’s completed bar and isn’t moved by this.

The Engines of the Modern Economy

Sector CCI(20) Verdict: YELLOW, as of Thursday’s close · XLK (current +146.1 vs. prior +193.5, 20-day average +44.1 rising to +53.3) · session -0.32%

YELLOW as of Thursday’s close, held for a second session. The reading fell 47.4 points, a larger decline than Wednesday’s 43.8. The fund was bid about 0.76% before the bell and is up 0.68% an hour into Friday, the strongest sector on the board.

On Tuesday the cushion between this reading and its own trailing average stood at 204.2 points, the widest this engine has ever produced. It closed to 149.4 on Wednesday and to 92.8 on Thursday. Both halves of the arithmetic are now working at once: the reading has fallen 91.2 points in two sessions and the average has climbed from +44.1 to +53.3. The sector price fell 0.32% across the same two days it fell 0.47%, which is to say the price is doing almost nothing while the participation measure unwinds a record.

That gap between a quiet price and a fast-moving gauge is the honest limit of a twenty-day reading, and it gets stated on the morning it’s visible instead of after the light changes color. Technology is second on the year at plus 33.7% and remains above its fifty-day average at $194.71 against $184.10.

The chips did not cause Thursday's decline. Advanced Micro Devices rose 2.38% and Micron rose 0.81%. What fell were the software and database names, and the single largest reading move anywhere on our watchlist came from Microsoft.

Microsoft MSFT fell 0.53% to $497.93 and its momentum reading collapsed from plus 38.7 to minus 46.7, an 85.4-point single-bar move on a half-percent price decline. That is a larger reading move than any of the eleven sectors produced on a day five of them changed color, and it came out of a price that barely moved. The stock is up 2.8% on the year. An hour into Friday it is the best name on the roster, opening $499.04, reaching $517.48, and trading about $511.27, up 2.71%. The reading said one thing on Thursday’s completed bar and the tape is saying another this morning, which is the honest state of it.

Oracle ORCL fell 3.47% to $139.54, the second-worst session on the roster, lagging its sector fund by 315 basis points. It is down 29.3% on the year and is the fourth-worst name on the roster. No two-feed same-day cause has been confirmed for the decline and none is offered here.

Micron MU rose 0.81% to $1,080.53 and holds plus 266.1% on the year, still the best figure on the roster by 78.6 percentage points. Its momentum reading fell from +168.9 to +128.9, a second consecutive decline, which keeps it in the deceleration state and not the reversal state. It reports Wednesday the thirtieth after the close against a consensus of 31.43 a share on roughly $50.8 billion of revenue, both lines unchanged overnight. It is bid 1.57% this morning.

At the open: opened $195.53 and trades $196.10 about an hour in, up 0.68%, the strongest sector on the board. The premarket bid was directionally right and understated.

The Business of Staying Alive

Sector CCI(20) Verdict: GREEN, as of Thursday’s close · XLV (current +24.4 vs. prior -7.0, 20-day average -28.2) · session +0.63%

GREEN as of Thursday’s close, held for a third session. The reading rose 31.4 points and crossed zero for the first time in this cycle.

Two issues ago this letter named Health Care's 7.4-point cushion as the green most likely to fail first, and said so on the stated rule that thin cushions go before wide ones. Technology and Communication Services, the two widest greens on the board, both broke instead. Health Care held, widened to 17.4, and on Thursday widened again to 52.6 while printing plus 24.4, its first positive reading of this cycle. The ranking rule was wrong on the one session that tested it and it has now been wrong for three.

The sector moved from fifth to third on the year in a single session, at plus 9.7%, passing both Materials and Industrials. Five of six roster names closed higher. It’s one of four sector funds above its fifty-day average, at $169.87 against $167.53.

What this does not settle is whether a defensive sector leading on a day the long bond sells off is strength or shelter. The reading measures participation, not motive, and nothing in the engine distinguishes between them.

Eli Lilly LLY rose 2.68% to $1,181.89, the second-largest move on the roster, beating its sector fund by 205 basis points. It is up 9.8% on the year.

UnitedHealth UNH rose 1.00% to $375.01 and holds plus 13.3% on the year. It is bid 0.43% this morning.

Intuitive Surgical ISRG rose 0.31% to $399.52 and remains the third-worst name on the roster at minus 29.5% on the year. Three sessions of sector green have moved it 31 basis points.

At the open: opened $169.94 and trades $168.87 about an hour in, off 0.62%, the second-worst sector on the board. The other green light. The premarket read was wrong on this one too.

The Barrel and the Bill

Sector CCI(20) Verdict: YELLOW, as of Thursday’s close · XLE (current -83.1 vs. prior -102.1, 20-day average +42.1) · session +0.37%

YELLOW as of Thursday’s close, held for a second session. The reading improved 19.0 points and still sits 125.2 below its own average, the widest negative gap on the board.

Energy is first on the year at plus 40.0% and it closed higher on Thursday for a second straight session, with five of six roster names up. The crude proxy added 2.86% to $153.09 and is up 123.7% on the year, which remains the single largest move on this board.

Friday morning runs the other way. The United States and Iran are exploring a phased agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, crude is offered, and this is the only sector fund carrying a premarket decline of more than one percent. The energy complex has spent the year pricing a closed chokepoint. It’s now being asked what an open one is worth.

The gap between the reading and its average is the part to watch. At 125.2 points below trend, this sector can post three good sessions and still not produce a green light, because the average it has to clear was built during the run that made it the best sector of the year.

ConocoPhillips COP rose 0.98% to $129.34 and beat its sector fund by 61 basis points. It is up 38.2% on the year. It is offered 1.72% this morning.

Marathon Petroleum MPC rose 0.66% to $390.95 and holds plus 140.1% on the year, third-best on the roster. It is offered 2.02% before the bell, the largest premarket decline in the sector.

Exxon Mobil XOM rose 0.56% to $162.14 and is up 35.0% on the year. It is offered 1.23% this morning.

At the open: opened $61.92 and trades $62.00 about an hour in, off 0.93%. The premarket offer held into the session. The crude proxy is off 1.62%.

The Toll Booth on Everyone Else's Money

Sector CCI(20) Verdict: YELLOW, as of Thursday’s close · XLF (current -157.8 vs. prior -175.5, 20-day average -92.3) · session -0.02%

YELLOW as of Thursday’s close, upgraded from red after two sessions. The reading improved 17.7 points and remains 65.5 below its average.

The fund moved two hundredths of one percent and the light changed anyway, because four of six roster names closed higher and the reading had been falling into a trailing average that has been falling with it. This is an upgrade produced by a change in the rate of decline rather than by a rally, and the honest way to hold it is as a slowing, not a turn.

Financials is eighth on the year at minus 0.5% and remains below its fifty-day average at $54.53 against $57.08. It’s the only sector on the board whose verdict improved while its price did nothing at all.

Reporting on Friday morning said the Federal Reserve is working on a plan to raise the asset thresholds that trigger stricter oversight of large banks. That’s one outlet sourced to four unnamed people, it isn’t confirmed, and it isn’t offered here as the reason the light changed. The light changed on Thursday's completed bar, before any of it was published.

Visa V rose 1.79% to $367.98, the best session in the sector, beating the fund by 181 basis points. It is up 5.2% on the year.

Goldman Sachs GS fell 1.40% to $923.29, the worst session in the sector, lagging the fund by 138 basis points. It holds plus 4.4% on the year and is bid 0.94% this morning.

Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B fell 0.39% to $505.18 and is up 0.8% on the year, the narrowest full-year move on the roster.

At the open: opened $54.63 and trades $54.40 about an hour in, off 0.23%. The premarket bid reversed.

The Regulated Return on a Rising Discount Rate

Sector CCI(20) Verdict: YELLOW, as of Thursday’s close · XLU (current -175.6 vs. prior -176.3, 20-day average -126.5) · session -0.98%

YELLOW as of Thursday’s close, upgraded from red after one session. The reading improved seven tenths of one point.

Every utility on the roster closed lower. The fund lost 0.98%. The verdict improved, because the reading is measured against a twenty-day mean of its own typical price, and that mean fell faster than the price did. The upgrade came out of the denominator. Nothing in this sector got better on Thursday.

A desk that only explains its engine when the engine flatters the story isn’t explaining anything, so it gets said here in the sector where it looks worst. Utilities is last on the year at minus 8.2%, it sits 49.1 points below its own trailing average, and it’s the deepest negative reading on the board for a second straight session.

The cause has not changed since Wednesday. This is a sector valued by discounting a regulated stream of future money, the discount rate rose again on Thursday, and the thirty-year reached its highest level since 2004. Zero for six is the result.

NextEra Energy NEE fell 1.82% to $75.62 and is down 6.0% on the year.

NRG Energy NRG fell 2.85% to $97.85, the worst session in the sector, and is the second-worst name on the entire roster at minus 39.4% on the year. It is bid 0.67% this morning, which does not change the arithmetic of a nine-month decline.

Vistra VST was effectively unchanged at minus 0.02%, closing $137.94, and is down 15.8% on the year. It is bid 1.02% before the bell, the best premarket mark in the sector.

At the open: opened $39.41 and trades $39.20 about an hour in, off 0.42%. The premarket bid reversed.

What People Buy When They Have a Choice

Sector CCI(20) Verdict: YELLOW, as of Thursday’s close · XLY (current -106.5 vs. prior -88.2, 20-day average -127.2) · session -0.30%

YELLOW as of Thursday’s close, held for a second session. The reading fell 18.3 points and sits 20.7 above its average.

Bank of America downgraded Nike to Underperform from Neutral on Friday morning and cut its price objective to $30 from $47, citing a China field trip and a sales recovery it now expects to arrive in fiscal 2028 rather than sooner. The stock was offered about 2.4% before the bell on 54,792 premarket shares, four times the next-heaviest roster name, against a Thursday close of $35.99. It opened $35.25 and trades about $35.62, off 0.96%.

Nike is the worst name on this roster at minus 43.8% on the year, and it has been the worst name for weeks. Anybody holding it is looking at a new price objective set below Thursday's close, on a company that has beaten its earnings estimate three quarters running and reports again next Thursday. Those two facts are both true and they don’t resolve each other. What this letter can say is what the engine says: the stock's own reading fell from minus 83.0 to minus 88.0, it remains above its trailing averages on both the twenty-period and ten-period bases, and it’s deteriorating rather than reversing. That’s a description, not a recommendation, and it isn’t comfort.

The sector is tenth on the year at minus 8.1% and remains below its fifty-day average. One of six roster names closed higher.

Nike NKE fell 0.17% to $35.99 on Thursday and is offered 2.39% this morning. Its consensus price target stood at $47.62 with a low of $30 before Friday's downgrade, which means the low end of the published range now sits below the market price. It reports Thursday the first of October against a consensus of 43.8 cents a share on roughly $11.33 billion of revenue. The report time is not independently confirmed.

Home Depot HD fell 1.53% to $292.18, the worst session in the sector, and is down 14.9% on the year.

Tesla TSLA fell 0.57% to $377.94 and is down 17.4% on the year. It is bid 0.88% before the bell.

At the open: opened $110.67 and trades $109.91 about an hour in, off 0.38%. The 550-share premarket bid was noise, as labeled.

The Things That Move the Things

Sector CCI(20) Verdict: YELLOW, as of Thursday’s close · XLI (current -83.7 vs. prior -59.7, 20-day average -110.2) · session -0.75%

YELLOW as of Thursday’s close, downgraded from green after three sessions. The reading fell 24.0 points and holds 26.5 above its average.

Every industrial on the roster closed lower and the sector posted the worst roster average on the board at minus 1.547%. The green light that had held three sessions is gone.

Yesterday this letter noted that Industrials was green on momentum while trading below its fifty-day average, and that Communication Services was red on momentum while trading above it, and let the tension stand without calling it. Thursday resolved both, in the same direction, against the momentum gauge. Industrials went yellow. Communication Services went green. The fifty-day line had both right and the twenty-day reading had both wrong, inside one session, on two names pointing opposite ways. That result gets carried forward instead of filed.

The sector is fifth on the year at plus 8.5%, having been passed by Health Care and Materials, and it remains below its fifty-day average at $168.83 against $178.11. No two-feed same-day cause has been confirmed for the unanimous decline and none is offered here.

United Parcel Service UPS fell 3.93% to $92.05, the worst session on the entire roster, lagging its sector fund by 318 basis points. It is down 7.3% on the year.

Deere DE fell 2.05% to $694.94 and remains fifth on the roster at plus 49.1% on the year.

Caterpillar CAT fell 0.83% to $805.25 and holds plus 39.4%, tied with Freeport for sixth on the roster. It is bid 1.21% this morning.

At the open: opened $169.53 and trades $169.67 about an hour in, up 0.44%, the second-strongest sector on the board and the largest advance among the six downgraded or held-yellow names.

What Everything Else Is Made Of

Sector CCI(20) Verdict: RED, as of Thursday’s close · XLB (current -97.4 vs. prior -78.2, 20-day average -87.2) · session -1.19%

RED as of Thursday’s close, downgraded from yellow. The reading fell 19.2 points and crossed from 2.4 above its average to 10.2 below it.

Wednesday this sector sat 2.4 points below its own average, the tightest margin anywhere on the board, and the verdict held at yellow on that margin alone. Thursday the fund lost 1.19%, the worst sector decline of the session, all six roster names fell, and the reading went through. A yellow held by two points is a coin on its edge, and this one came down on the side the tape was already pushing it.

Materials is fourth on the year at plus 9.1%, having passed Industrials while being passed by Health Care, and it’s below its fifty-day average at $49.68 against $51.72. The fund didn’t trade at all before the bell this morning, which is recorded here as no trade and not as an unchanged price.

Sherwin-Williams SHW fell 1.86% to $320.40, the worst session in the sector, and is down 0.9% on the year.

Newmont NEM fell 1.82% to $121.30 on a day the gold proxy lost 0.30%. It holds plus 20.1% on the year and is bid 0.49% this morning.

Freeport-McMoRan FCX fell 0.69% to $72.08 and remains tied for sixth on the roster at plus 39.4% on the year.

At the open: opened $49.78 and trades $49.55 about an hour in, off 0.24%. There was no premarket print at the pull, so there’s nothing to score the drift read against.

The Things People Buy Anyway

Sector CCI(20) Verdict: RED, as of Thursday’s close · XLP (current -114.2 vs. prior -99.1, 20-day average -97.0) · session -0.89%

RED as of Thursday’s close, downgraded from yellow. The reading fell 15.1 points and now sits 17.2 below its average.

Costco reported fiscal fourth-quarter results after Thursday's close with earnings of $6.75 a share against a $6.55 consensus and revenue of $95.7 billion against $94.85 billion. Net sales rose 11.2% to $93.9 billion. Net income came to $2.998 billion against $2.610 billion a year earlier. For the full fiscal year, net sales rose 10.1% to $297.2 billion and diluted earnings reached $20.76 a share against $18.21. Fifteen cents of the quarterly figure came from a non-recurring tariff-refund benefit, partially reinvested in member value, which the company disclosed in the same release.

Our own carried estimate for the quarter had been $6.54 a share on $94.97 billion of revenue, and both lines came in above it, which is logged. The stock was offered about 1.0% before the bell, which this letter first read as a beat already sitting in the price. The open didn’t support that read: the stock opened $887.00 and has traded to about $916.67, up 2.27%. The premarket offer was the wrong tell and the reading is corrected here in the same issue that made it.

The sector is sixth on the year at plus 5.1%, two of six roster names closed higher, and the fund is below its fifty-day average at $81.70 against $84.78.

Costco Wholesale COST fell 0.91% to $896.48 into its own print and was offered 1.00% after it. It then opened $887.00 and reversed to about $916.67, up 2.27%. Its momentum reading improved from minus 58.6 to minus 56.8 and remains above both its twenty-period and ten-period trailing averages, which is the strongest configuration on our watchlist and has now held for several sessions.

Walmart WMT fell 2.66% to $107.59, the worst session in the sector, lagging its sector fund by 177 basis points. It is down 3.4% on the year.

PepsiCo PEP fell 1.56% to $128.15 and is down 10.5% on the year, the worst full-year figure in the sector.

At the open: opened $81.41 and trades $81.45 about an hour in, off 0.31%. The premarket offer held. Costco is the exception inside it, up 2.27%.

The Landlord's Arithmetic

Sector CCI(20) Verdict: RED, as of Thursday’s close · XLRE (current -154.0 vs. prior -145.7, 20-day average -126.2) · session -0.45%

RED as of Thursday’s close, held for a second session. The reading fell 8.3 points, the smallest decline among the sectors that fell.

Real estate lost 0.45% on a day the thirty-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2004, which is the mildest reaction this sector has had to a rate move in two weeks. One of six roster names closed higher. The reading is the second-deepest on the board and it’s 27.8 points below its own average.

The sector is seventh on the year at plus 3.2% and it’s below its fifty-day average at $41.65 against $44.41. A small move in a red sector on a bad day for the long end gets noticed and doesn’t support a conclusion; two sessions from now it’s either the beginning of exhaustion in the selling or a quiet day inside a downtrend, and the engine can’t tell which.

American Tower AMT fell 2.06% to $167.26, the worst session in the sector, lagging its fund by 161 basis points. It is down 4.6% on the year.

Simon Property Group SPG rose 0.26% to $204.70, the only gain in the sector, and holds plus 11.0% on the year.

Iron Mountain IRM fell 0.87% to $114.09 and remains up 37.5% on the year, the best figure in the sector by a wide margin.

At the open: opened $41.78 and trades $41.58 about an hour in, off 0.18%, the smallest sector decline on the board for a second straight session.

The S&P 500 proxy is the reference at plus 11.9% on the year. Health Care moved from fifth to third in a single session, passing Materials and Industrials. Four of eleven sector funds trade above their fifty-day average, unchanged in count for a third session, and the two names that made that count interesting both resolved on Thursday: Industrials lost its green light while still below its fifty-day, and Communication Services gained one while still above its fifty-day. The slower line was right on both.

Leaders. Micron plus 266.1%, Advanced Micro Devices plus 187.5%, Marathon Petroleum plus 140.1%, Phillips 66 plus 98.3%, Deere plus 49.1%. Laggards. Nike minus 43.8%, NRG minus 39.4%, Intuitive Surgical minus 29.5%. The spread from best to worst is 309.9 percentage points, wider than Wednesday because Micron rose.

Breadth. Twenty-six of sixty-seven roster names closed higher, forty-one lower, none unchanged. Three sectors went zero for six: Industrials, Materials and Utilities. Communication Services went six for six.

Relative strength. Best against their own sector fund: Meta plus 323 basis points, Advanced Micro Devices plus 270, Eli Lilly plus 205, Visa plus 181. Worst: United Parcel Service minus 318, Oracle minus 315, NRG minus 187, Walmart minus 177.

The financial channels spent Thursday explaining a flat tape. The flat tape was the only thing on it that didn’t move.

Early Earnings Update · Desk Counts Only
Two roster names report inside the next seven days: Micron on Wednesday and Nike on Thursday. No alignments fired this run. The desk’s persistence counter reached two sessions on two names for the first time, which is logged and nothing more, because the underlying ladder isn’t settled yet.

Costco reported Thursday after the close and has cleared the window. Actual earnings of $6.75 a share came in above the $6.54 estimate we had been carrying, and actual revenue of $95.7 billion came in above the carried $94.97 billion. Both are logged.

Thursday’s actuals: initial claims 197,000 against 201,000 expected, continuing claims 1.719 million against 1.750 million, four-week average 202,250. Freddie Mac’s thirty-year survey averaged 7.03%, up from 6.95%, a fifth straight weekly increase, against 6.30% a year ago.

Nike has been the worst name on this roster for weeks and it got a new price objective on Friday morning set below Thursday’s closing price. Anyone holding it is now looking at a published low target of $30 against a $35.99 close, on a company that has beaten its estimate three quarters running and reports next Thursday. Those facts don’t reconcile, and a ranking table isn’t the place to pretend they do. Caterpillar joined Freeport in a tie for sixth; the two are separated by four hundredths of a percentage point.

The honest summary of Thursday is that the market disagreed with itself in public and the index hid it. Six lights changed color, three each way, on a session that moved the S&P 500 by eight hundredths of one percent. Communication Services undid a two-step downgrade in a single bar. Utilities was upgraded on a day all six of its names fell, because the average it gets measured against fell faster than the price did, and that gets said here rather than dressed up as a turn. Industrials, Materials and Utilities each went zero for six. Health Care printed its first positive reading of the cycle and moved from fifth to third on the year after this letter had named it the green most likely to break.

Then Friday opened and started arguing. An hour into the session the two green lights are the two worst sectors on the board and the two leaders are yellow, one of them downgraded the day before. Microsoft, whose reading fell 85.4 points on Thursday to red on both bases, is the best name on the roster. Costco, which this issue called a beat already in the price, opened lower and is up better than two percent. A completed-bar verdict doesn’t move on an hour of tape and none of these have moved. But a letter that publishes a board at nine in the morning and watches it get contradicted by ten-thirty should say so in the same issue rather than wait for a scorecard line on Monday.

Two prior tests still need settling. Issue 194’s two-week clock is still running with seven trading days left and it isn’t settled. Issue 196’s reading of the Communication Services two-step downgrade as a decisive statement is settled and it’s settled against us, which is why the correction sits in the Trader’s Brief at the top of this issue and not down here.

The bill for Thursday is the same bill as Wednesday’s and it’s larger. The thirty-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2004, and the thirty-year mortgage survey printed 7.03%, its fifth straight weekly increase, against 6.30% a year ago. The long end of the curve sets the price of a house over three decades. Nobody’s income rose 73 basis points this year to match it.

What would prove this read wrong is checkable, and Friday has already started marking it. If Communication Services holds its green light for five consecutive completed sessions while the market-risk gauge repairs to green and the roster average stops trailing the index, then Thursday was the start of a broadening and not a dispersion, and the right thing to do is say so in this space rather than reframe it. On the evidence of the first hour that test is losing: the sector is the weakest on the board and the clock hasn’t reached session two. Health Care’s move from fifth to third on the year can be checked against its own sector on the Sector Risk tab of the Golden Terminal, or charting the two as a ratio.

The hardware store on the county road has kept the same hand-lettered sign in the window since spring: FINANCING AVAILABLE, ASK INSIDE. Nobody has changed the sign. What changed is that the fellow who runs the place now answers the question before it’s asked, because the answer has gotten long enough that he would rather get it over with. Seven percent, he says, and then he waits.

There is an old joke about the Dutch tulip market, which is that the bulbs never went anywhere. They sat in the ground the entire time, doing what bulbs do, while the price of owning one went from a few guilders to a house on a canal and back again inside three years. The tulip had no opinion. Neither does a roof. On Thursday the roof stayed exactly where it was and the cost of financing it went up for the fifth week running, and somewhere a market strategist described the session as quiet.

Supercycle Trader runs the longer clock: the multi-year rotations underneath the daily board, and what a twenty-two-year high in the long bond does to a cycle that started somewhere else. Same tape, same arithmetic, a different time horizon.

Somebody you know checked the index on Thursday, saw eight hundredths of a percent, and concluded that nothing happened. Six of eleven sectors changed direction underneath it, and by Friday’s open the two that turned green were the two worst on the board. Send them this one.

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Every directional and magnitude claim above, checked against the live tape. No “trust me, bro”: these are the numbers that pay for your subscription. Engine validation, confirmation status and the open items are all listed, including the ones that don’t flatter the issue.

The CCI(20) engine reproduces the prior session exactly. Recomputing each instrument’s prior-period reading from Thursday’s completed bars returns the value published as current in Issue 196 on all twelve instruments, and on all four watchlist stocks. Sixteen of sixteen, no drift.

This issue was built on Thursday’s completed bars and staged before the bell. The open ran against several of its statements inside an hour. The verdicts are unchanged, because a completed-bar engine doesn’t take an hour of tape as input. The statements are corrected here.

Proxy note. Crude oil, gold, silver, the broad commodity complex and the dollar are represented by exchange-traded proxies (USO, GLD, SLV, DBC, UUP), not by futures contracts, which aren’t entitled on the current data plan. Premarket figures are drift only and never move a completed-bar verdict. Instruments printing on a few hundred to a few thousand premarket shares are labeled indicative. An instrument with no premarket print is recorded as no trade and never as an unchanged price.

Golden Terminal note. The standing product line appears once, in the Final Word, tied to Health Care’s move from fifth to third on the year.

The Daily Update is general commentary from Golden Terminal. It isn’t personalized advice and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell. Figures come from public market data and public filings, and they can be revised. Past performance doesn’t predict future results. Talk to a licensed professional before acting on any of it. The publisher and its staff may hold positions in securities discussed.

The Daily Update · Golden Terminal · Vol. III No. 197 · Friday, September 25, 2026