Free Markets · Honest Money · No Apologies
Friday Trader’s Brief 30-Second Read · Markets Closed Today · July 4th Observed · Reopen Monday 9:30 ET
The Jobs Print | NFP +57K vs 110K est — Unemployment 4.2% only because 61.5% quit looking |
Last Tape | Dow 52,900 Record +1.1% — S&P flat; Nasdaq −0.8% as semis bled again |
10Y Treasury | 4.49% 30Y 4.99% — The long end did NOT rally on the miss |
Honest Money | Gold $4,196 Record High — Silver $62.8; dollar slid to 100.5 |
Next Tape | Closed Fri 7/3 OPEC+ Sunday — FOMC minutes Wed; SpaceX joins NDX Tue |
The referee blew the whistle and called the game for the doves. June payrolls printed +57,000 against a 110,000 estimate — private hiring just +49,000 — and the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% for the worst possible reason: the participation rate collapsed to 61.5%. Wages ran +3.5% year over year, hotter than last month. The market's read was instant and one-track: the July Fed hike that was creeping into the odds is dead. The rate-sensitive half of the market threw a party.
The rotation got its second engine — and changed direction. Wednesday the money ran from crowded semis into hated laggards. Thursday, on the soft print, it ran into the defensives and rate-sensitives: Health Care ripped +2.6% (the day’s best sector), Utilities +2.2%, Staples +2.0%, Materials +1.9%. The momentum board inverted to five green, five yellow, one red — and the greens are Health Care, Staples, Utilities, Materials and Energy, while Technology is the lone red. Two sessions ago the generals were green and the defensives were red. The board has turned completely over.
The AI unwind ran a second day — and it is getting selective. Marvell fell 9.8%, ARM 6.6%, Micron 5.5%, AMD 4.3%, the semis ETF 4.5%. Tesla delivered a beat — 480,126 vehicles, up 25%, against ~406,000 expected — and was punished 7.5% anyway: at 190x forward earnings, good news is no longer good enough. Meta gave back 4.9% of Wednesday’s rip. The tell was Apple, up 4.8% on reports it is hunting new chip suppliers and prepping a foldable iPhone — the money is not leaving megacap; it is hiding in the cheapest one.
Honest money had its loudest day of the summer. Gold surged to a fresh record near $4,196, silver ran to $62.8, and the dollar index slid to 100.5 — all while the 10-year Treasury refused to rally on a weak jobs number, closing at 4.49%. Read that pairing carefully: rate-hike odds died, but the bond market would not touch duration with wages at 3.5% and core PCE at 3.4%. The relief went into metal, not paper. President Trump called the Fed “hostile” the same afternoon and renewed his vow to remove Governor Cook. The debasement trade heard him.
Trader’s call into the long weekend. The market is closed today for the Fourth. The next tape is Monday — and the weekend carries real events: OPEC+ meets Sunday on August output with the Strait of Hormuz still charging tolls, SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 Tuesday, FOMC minutes Wednesday, and the big-bank Q2 season opens the week after. Watch whether the semis find a bid Monday or the unwind runs a third day — and whether the defensive greens hold once the holiday tape thins out. Keep 6–10% in T-bills and let the board, not the barbecue, set the map.