Vol. III · No. 205|Tuesday, October 6, 2026

Golden Terminal

Tuesday Trader’s Brief 30-Second Read · Cash Open 9:30 ET · Monday’s Completed Bars

XLK · XLE · XLI · XLY · XLU · XLC · XLV · XLB · XLF · XLP · XLRE

The August trade deficit came in at $105.6 billion this morning, against a consensus near $102 billion and a July gap of $88.6 billion. That’s a $17.0 billion deterioration in a single month, released at 8:30 ET. It lands with the dollar proxy at a fifty-two-week high and the twenty-year Treasury above the thirty-year for a seventh consecutive session. A country buying more from the world than it sells has to fund the difference, and it funds it by selling paper to the same people who have spent three weeks demanding more yield to hold it. There’s a three-year note auction at 1:00 this afternoon.

Twenty-three of our sixty-seven companies closed above their own fifty-day average on Monday, against seventeen on Friday. Six names crossed and not one dropped out: ConocoPhillips, Alphabet, Linde, Procter & Gamble, Visa and Vistra. For a month that count sat between sixteen and eighteen while the sector lights swung through five, six and seven changes a session, and we kept saying the lights were running ahead of it. The count had been moving one name at a time. Monday it moved six.

The sector board carries no red lights for the first time in this stretch. Six of eleven verdicts changed and for the first time in eight sessions they didn’t all go one way. Energy, Health Care and Consumer Staples upgraded. Technology, Industrials and Real Estate came off green. The board reads six green, five yellow and zero red, from seven, three and one on Friday. That’s the eighth consecutive session with five or more changes: six, six, eight, six, five, six, seven, six. The market-risk gauge computed off the index held green and rose another 56.3 points to plus 137.49, which is the widest cushion over its own trailing average anywhere in this window.

The Nasdaq proxy closed at a fifty-two-week high on the same session Technology’s light came off green. It finished at $756.20, up 0.88%, after trading to $756.93 intraday, and Nvidia set a new fifty-two-week high of its own at $240.10 before closing $238.90, up 2.12%. The Technology fund closed at $200.93, a quarter of a percent under the high it set Friday, and its reading fell 7.7 points to 122.65. It’s still 28.0 points above its own twenty-period average and it’s below Friday’s print, which is the combination this engine calls yellow. A verdict built on rate of change downgrades on a slowing advance and doesn’t wait for a decline.

Every maturity we track rose again except the five-year, which didn’t move, and the long-Treasury fund printed a fresh fifty-two-week low. The two-year added a basis point to 4.84%, the ten-year three to 5.31%, the twenty-year three to 5.70% and the thirty-year three to 5.66%, which leaves the twenty-year above the thirty-year for a seventh consecutive session. The long fund traded down to $76.69 and closed at $77.11, 16.4% under its own fifty-two-week high. The dollar proxy traded to a fifty-two-week high at $29.07 while the euro sat at a seventeen-month low.

Energy took the thinnest green light this engine has produced, on the morning diesel sits above six dollars a gallon. The sector fund rose 1.00% to $63.45 and its reading improved 30.1 points to minus 19.46, which clears its own twenty-period average of minus 19.58 by twelve hundredths of a point. Marathon Petroleum traded to a new fifty-two-week high at $437.67 and closed up 2.64% while the crude proxy fell 2.29%. Refining margins and the price of a barrel are pulling in opposite directions, and the retail pump is on the margin side of that.

XLK · XLE · XLI · XLY · XLU · XLC · XLV · XLB · XLF · XLP · XLRE

Sector Ticker Strip · Monday’s Completed Bars

One hundred five point six billion dollars. That’s the gap between what America bought from the rest of the world in August and what it sold, released at half past eight this morning, against a consensus near $102 billion and a July figure of $88.6 billion. The deficit widened by $17.0 billion in a single month. It arrives on a morning when the dollar proxy sits at a fifty-two-week high, the twenty-year Treasury yields more than the thirty-year for a seventh consecutive session, and the long-Treasury fund has just printed a fresh annual low. Those four readings are one reading. A widening external deficit has to be financed, financing means selling paper abroad, and the price of that paper is set by the people who have spent three weeks asking more to hold it. Treasury sells three-year notes at one o’clock this afternoon, into that bid.

Twenty-three of sixty-seven. That’s how many of our companies closed Monday above their own fifty-day average, against seventeen on Friday and sixteen on Thursday, and it’s the first session in a month the count has moved by more than a single name. On the same session the Nasdaq proxy closed at a fifty-two-week high, Nvidia set one of its own, and the momentum verdict on Technology came off green. Participation improved and leadership slowed in the same session, and the long end sold off through both of them.

What that does to the argument we’ve been making should be said up here instead of buried. For two weeks we’ve pointed at the count of names above their fifty-day average and said the sector lights were running ahead of it. The count went sixteen, seventeen, twenty-three. Six names crossed on Monday and not one dropped out: ConocoPhillips, Alphabet, Linde, Procter & Gamble, Visa and Vistra. The number we picked was the right number to watch. Our read on how long it would sit still was wrong, and that correction belongs in the lead and not in the appendix.

Set the constructive reading aside for a paragraph, because the case against calling Monday a turn is the sturdier half of the argument this morning. Seventeen of our sixty-seven companies still trade at least twenty percent under a fifty-two-week high and seven of them more than thirty percent under, and neither of those counts moved. McDonald’s printed a fresh fifty-two-week low at $229.20 and PepsiCo printed one at $124.22, which puts two new annual lows on a board that has no red lights left on it. The long-Treasury fund printed an annual low of its own. One of the research letters this desk reads published a screen of the broad market over the weekend showing a majority of the Russell 3000 already twenty percent or more below its highs, with semiconductors far worse than that; we haven’t seen the screen’s definition and we’re carrying it as their figure rather than ours. Sentiment surveys have read bearish for three consecutive weeks while the Nasdaq closed at a record. Nobody has this settled.

Where we come out is narrower than either side of it. A momentum verdict measures the rate of change in price, which is why eight of eleven sector readings improved on a session when only one sector fund fell. A count of companies above their own fifty-day average measures how many are carrying the advance, and that count moved six names in one direction for the first time in a month. Those two measure different things and on Monday they moved the same way. What didn’t improve is the number of names at the deep end of the roster. What deteriorated is the reading on three of the four sectors that have been doing the carrying.

The biggest number in Monday’s news wasn’t on our board. The national average price of diesel moved above six dollars a gallon last month for the first time, and the President signed an order on Monday letting dyed diesel, the tax-exempt grade reserved for farm and construction equipment, be burned on the highway. Run the arithmetic on one truck and leave the politics out. A hundred thousand miles at six and a half miles to the gallon is about fifteen thousand gallons, so a dollar on the pump price is roughly fifteen thousand dollars a year out of a single tractor, and harvest is running right now. The gap between what a refiner pays for a barrel and what it sells diesel for is what made Marathon Petroleum the third-best name on our roster this year at plus 166.5%, and it set a fifty-two-week high on Monday while crude fell 2.29%. That gap is one number doing two jobs. On an income statement it’s a refining margin. At a fuel stop it’s the total on the receipt.

The long end ignored all of it again. The ten-year closed at 5.31%, the twenty-year at 5.70% and the thirty-year at 5.66%, which is a hump in the long end rather than a slope, and it’s the seventh session running. The long-Treasury fund traded to $76.69, a new fifty-two-week low, on a session when the index gauge printed its strongest reading of the window. The dollar proxy went the other way to a fifty-two-week high while the euro sat at a seventeen-month low and the gap between French and German government paper widened again. Equity money spent Monday buying the companies that are working. The people who lend for twenty years spent it on a different question entirely.

Brad Hoppmann

Filed from Taintsville, Florida · Pop. < 1,000 ‘Taint in the Beltway, ‘taint in any backwards corrupt city, just a Florida man with a sharp pencil and a long memory of expensive lessons.

What to watch into the open. The August trade gap landed at 8:30 ET at $105.6 billion, against a $102.0 billion consensus and an $88.6 billion July figure. Treasury sells three-year notes at 1:00 p.m. New York Fed President Williams speaks at 9:05 and Governor Bowman at 10:45, with Kansas City’s Schmid at 1:15 p.m. ET and Dallas Fed President Logan in the evening. FOMC minutes land Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET and PepsiCo reports Thursday before the bell at a consensus of $2.30 a share. Nothing on the board cleared the three-quarter-point premarket threshold at 7:20; the widest was Energy at minus 0.58% on 103,320 shares, which runs against the narrowest green light on the board. The market-risk light is green and the index proxy was marked 0.35% higher, the same direction as the light.

Twenty-three of our sixty-seven companies closed above their own fifty-day average. That count had been moving one name at a time. On Monday it moved six.

Eleven Sector Verdicts · Dominators & Data · Monday’s Completed Bars

The Engines Of The Modern Economy

Sector CCI(20) Verdict: YELLOW, as of Monday’s close · XLK at $200.93, +0.56% on the session · reading 122.65 against a prior 130.30 and a twenty-period average of 94.65 · GREEN to YELLOW on -7.7 · premarket drift of +0.60% on 10,152 shares runs against this light and sits inside the threshold.

Technology closed a quarter of a percent under the fifty-two-week high it set on Friday, and its momentum reading fell for the first time in six sessions. The reading at 122.65 is still the highest on the board and still 28.0 points clear of its own trailing average. It came in below Friday’s print, and that combination is what moves this verdict to yellow. The sector fund remains above both its fifty-day and its two-hundred-day average, which no other sector can say except Energy.

Nvidia carried the session. It traded to a new fifty-two-week high at $240.10, closed at $238.90 up 2.12% on 126.4 million shares, and it’s now up 28.1% on the year. Broadcom added 2.08% to $362.51 and Microsoft 1.48% to $525.18. Micron fell 1.02% to $1,063.96, its second consecutive decline, and it’s still the best name on this roster at plus 272.8% for the year and 15.2% under its own annual high. Apple slipped 0.24% and Advanced Micro Devices 0.34%, three sessions after printing its own fifty-two-week high.

Oracle rose 0.18% to $142.55 and that’s the whole of what happened to it. The stock trades 55.8% below its own fifty-two-week high, which is the deepest drawdown anywhere on this roster, and 26.9% below where it opened the year. Getting back to that opening level from $142.55 takes a 36.7% advance. Anybody holding it watched the sector around it lose its green light on a session when the index closed higher, which is a particular kind of week.

Information Technology (XLK) closed Monday at $200.93, +0.56%, against a fifty-two-week high of $201.39 set on Friday. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current 122.65, prior session 130.30, twenty-period average 94.65. Current above average but below prior, so the verdict is YELLOW, downgraded from GREEN on a move of -7.7 points.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Nvidia $238.90 +2.12%, Broadcom $362.51 +2.08%, Microsoft $525.18 +1.48%, Oracle $142.55 +0.18%, Apple $332.89 -0.24%, Advanced Micro Devices $631.75 -0.34%, Micron $1,063.96 -1.02%. Four advancers, three decliners. Above the fifty-day: Advanced Micro Devices, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Micron. Nvidia printed a new fifty-two-week high of $240.10 intraday. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 basis: +39.57%, second of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($186.30) and its two-hundred-day ($164.94).

The Barrels Everything Else Runs On

Sector CCI(20) Verdict: GREEN, as of Monday’s close · XLE at $63.45, +1.00% on the session · reading -19.46 against a prior -49.58 and a twenty-period average of -19.58 · YELLOW to GREEN on +30.1 · premarket drift of -0.58% on 103,320 shares runs against this light and sits inside the threshold.

This is the narrowest green verdict this engine has produced. The reading improved 30.1 points to minus 19.46 and it clears its own twenty-period average of minus 19.58 by twelve hundredths of a point. A tenth of a point in either direction on Tuesday’s bar changes the color, and we’d rather say that out loud than present a green light as though all greens were the same size. The sector is first of eleven on the year at plus 41.9% and it closed 4.1% under its own fifty-two-week high.

Five of six names rose and the refiners led them. Marathon Petroleum traded to a new fifty-two-week high at $437.67 and closed at $433.47, up 2.64%, which takes it to plus 166.5% for the year and third on our roster. Phillips 66 added 1.94% to $269.72 and sits at plus 109.0%. EOG Resources rose 1.91%, ConocoPhillips 1.30%, Exxon Mobil a penny, and Chevron was the only decliner at minus 0.11%.

The crude proxy fell 2.29% on the same session, to $143.99. Refining margins and the price of a barrel are moving in opposite directions right now, which is why the refiners are at annual highs while the commodity sells off. Goldman Sachs told clients Tuesday morning that it expects diesel and jet crack spreads to average above $40 a barrel through 2027, more than twice the usual level; that’s their forecast rather than ours, and we carry it as such. What’s already measured rather than forecast is the pump price, and it went above six dollars a gallon last month for the first time.

Energy (XLE) closed Monday at $63.45, +1.00%, against a fifty-two-week high of $66.17. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current -19.46, prior session -49.58, twenty-period average -19.58. Current above prior and above average by 0.12 of a point, so the verdict is GREEN, upgraded from YELLOW on a move of +30.1 points. This is the smallest cushion over a trailing average recorded in this window.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Marathon Petroleum $433.47 +2.64%, Phillips 66 $269.72 +1.94%, EOG Resources $144.08 +1.91%, ConocoPhillips $128.40 +1.30%, Exxon Mobil $164.02 +0.01%, Chevron $206.47 -0.11%. Five advancers, one decliner. Above the fifty-day: Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, which crossed on this session. Marathon Petroleum printed a new fifty-two-week high of $437.67 intraday. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 basis: +41.92%, first of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($62.12) and its two-hundred-day ($56.55). Crude proxy USO $143.99, -2.29%.

The Machines That Build Everything Else

Sector CCI(20) Verdict: YELLOW, as of Monday’s close · XLI at $170.10, +0.09% on the session · reading -19.93 against a prior -17.25 and a twenty-period average of -85.75 · GREEN to YELLOW on -2.7 · no premarket trade in the sector fund at 7:20.

Industrials has now produced five verdicts in five sessions: green on Tuesday, red on Wednesday, yellow on Thursday, green on Friday, yellow on Monday. The reading barely moved this time, down 2.7 points, and it still sits 65.8 points above its own trailing average, the second-widest cushion on the board. The deterioration is small and the whipsaw is the point. A sector that changes color five sessions running is telling you its rate of change is unstable, not that its trend has resolved.

Three names rose and three fell, and the fund closed up nine hundredths of a percent. Caterpillar added 0.32% to $848.14 and Deere fell 0.70% to $682.20, which separated the two for the first time in a week: Caterpillar is plus 48.1% on the year and Deere plus 46.5%. United Parcel Service rose 0.13% and Honeywell 0.07%. Boeing fell 0.43% and Union Pacific 0.44%.

The fund itself still trades 9.6% under its fifty-two-week high and below both its fifty-day and its two-hundred-day average, and only two of its six names close above their own fifty-day. Caterpillar sits 21.0% under its own annual high even at plus 48.1% for the year, which is the shape of a sector where two names carry it and the rest sit in a hole.

Industrials (XLI) closed Monday at $170.10, +0.09%, against a fifty-two-week high of $188.19. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current -19.93, prior session -17.25, twenty-period average -85.75. Current above average but below prior, so the verdict is YELLOW, downgraded from GREEN on a move of -2.7 points.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Caterpillar $848.14 +0.32%, United Parcel $93.14 +0.13%, Honeywell $214.14 +0.07%, Boeing $192.72 -0.43%, Union Pacific $277.06 -0.44%, Deere $682.20 -0.70%. Three advancers, three decliners. Above the fifty-day: Deere, Caterpillar. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 basis: +9.66%, third of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($176.84) and its two-hundred-day ($172.34).

Where The Paycheck Goes After The Bills

Sector CCI(20) Verdict: GREEN, as of Monday’s close · XLY at $110.42, +0.35% on the session · reading -45.03 against a prior -59.70 and a twenty-period average of -117.21 · GREEN held on +14.7 · no premarket trade in the sector fund at 7:20.

Consumer Discretionary held green for a second session and its cushion over its own trailing average is now 72.2 points, the widest of the eleven. It’s also last of eleven on the year at minus 7.5% and it trades 11.7% under its own fifty-two-week high, below both its fifty-day and its two-hundred-day average. Rate of change and level are telling two different stories about this sector, and the verdict only reports the first one.

Tesla carried it again at plus 2.20% to $378.73, and it’s the only name in the sector above its own fifty-day average. Amazon slipped four hundredths of a percent, Starbucks 0.30% and Home Depot 0.60%. Home Depot closed at $281.15, which is 1.4% above its fifty-two-week low and 29.3% under its high, on a session when its sector held a green light.

McDonald’s is where the two readings collide. It printed a new fifty-two-week low at $229.20 during Monday’s session and then closed up 0.50% at $233.04. It’s down 23.8% on the year and 31.8% under its own annual high. That is a fresh annual low on a company inside a sector our engine calls green, on a day when no sector on the board carried a red light, and the two facts don’t cancel. Nike closed up 0.27% at $33.96, down 46.7% for the year, and returning to where it opened January takes an 87.6% advance from here.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) closed Monday at $110.42, +0.35%, against a fifty-two-week high of $125.01. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current -45.03, prior session -59.70, twenty-period average -117.21. Current above prior and above average, so the verdict is GREEN and it held on a move of +14.7 points.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Tesla $378.73 +2.20%, McDonald’s $233.04 +0.50%, Nike $33.96 +0.27%, Amazon $251.40 -0.05%, Starbucks $94.43 -0.30%, Home Depot $281.15 -0.60%. Three advancers, three decliners. Above the fifty-day: Tesla. McDonald’s printed a new fifty-two-week low of $229.20 intraday. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 basis: -7.53%, eleventh of eleven.

The Regulated Monopolies Nobody Notices Until The Bill Arrives

Sector CCI(20) Verdict: GREEN, as of Monday’s close · XLU at $39.97, +0.35% on the session · reading -54.58 against a prior -61.08 and a twenty-period average of -119.56 · GREEN held on +6.5 · premarket drift of +0.73% on 56,890 shares runs with this light.

Utilities held green for a fifth consecutive session on the smallest improvement of the eight sectors that improved, 6.5 points. The cushion over its trailing average is 65.0 points, third-widest on the board. The level is the other half of it: the fund is tenth of eleven on the year at minus 6.4%, it trades 16.4% under its fifty-two-week high, and it sits below both its fifty-day and its two-hundred-day average.

Vistra was the best name on the whole roster at plus 3.48% to $144.89, and it’s the only utility above its own fifty-day. NRG Energy rose 1.65%, American Electric Power 0.13% and Southern 0.08%. Duke fell 0.25% and NextEra 0.71%.

Three of the six names in this green sector close within three percent of a fifty-two-week low: NextEra at 2.5% above its low, Southern at 2.6% and Duke at 1.3%. A weekend screen from one of the research letters this desk reads put three utility names on a fifty-two-week low list while our own verdict has been green for five sessions, and we have not moved the verdict to agree with it. The verdict measures the rate of change in the fund. The low list measures where individual share prices actually are. NRG is the sharper version of the same gap: up 1.65% on Monday, down 39.2% on the year, 49.0% under its own high, and it takes a 64.5% advance from $96.80 to get back to where it opened January.

Utilities (XLU) closed Monday at $39.97, +0.35%, against a fifty-two-week high of $47.80. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current -54.58, prior session -61.08, twenty-period average -119.56. Current above prior and above average, so the verdict is GREEN and it held on a move of +6.5 points, a fifth consecutive green session.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Vistra $144.89 +3.48%, NRG Energy $96.80 +1.65%, American Electric Power $119.73 +0.13%, Southern $83.79 +0.08%, Duke $113.84 -0.25%, NextEra $76.28 -0.71%. Four advancers, two decliners. Above the fifty-day: Vistra. Within three percent of a fifty-two-week low: Duke, NextEra, Southern. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 basis: -6.37%, tenth of eleven.

The Attention Business

Sector CCI(20) Verdict: YELLOW, as of Monday’s close · XLC at $111.61, +1.17% on the session · reading -64.86 against a prior -114.93 and a twenty-period average of 3.36 · YELLOW held on +50.1, the largest improvement on the board · no premarket trade in the sector fund at 7:20.

Communication Services produced the biggest single-session improvement anywhere on the board, 50.1 points, and it stayed yellow. That is the arithmetic working as designed: the reading improved far more than any other sector and it’s still 68.2 points below its own twenty-period average, which is the widest dislocation on the board. A sector can be repairing fast and still be a long way from where it has been trading.

Meta led at plus 1.90% to $741.90 and sits 4.9% under its own fifty-two-week high, the closest it has been in weeks. Disney rose 1.39%, Alphabet 0.86% to $346.47, which put it above its own fifty-day average, and Netflix 0.66%. Verizon fell 0.15% and AT&T 0.25%.

The fund crossed above its own fifty-day average on this session, which makes three of eleven sector funds that can say that, against two for the past week. Netflix is the other side of the sector: up 0.66% on Monday, down 28.0% on the year, and 45.9% below its fifty-two-week high. Getting back to its January opening level takes a 38.9% advance.

Communication Services (XLC) closed Monday at $111.61, +1.17%, against a fifty-two-week high of $120.41. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current -64.86, prior session -114.93, twenty-period average 3.36. Current above prior but below average, so the verdict is YELLOW and it held on a move of +50.1 points, the largest improvement on the board.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Meta $741.90 +1.90%, Disney $103.61 +1.39%, Alphabet $346.47 +0.86%, Netflix $67.50 +0.66%, Verizon $45.85 -0.15%, AT&T $24.24 -0.25%. Four advancers, two decliners. Above the fifty-day: Alphabet, which crossed on this session, and Meta. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 basis: -5.19%, ninth of eleven. Fund above its fifty-day ($111.49) and below its two-hundred-day ($113.79).

The Business Of Staying Alive

Sector CCI(20) Verdict: YELLOW, as of Monday’s close · XLV at $167.37, +0.72% on the session · reading -69.92 against a prior -115.48 and a twenty-period average of -49.00 · RED to YELLOW on +45.6 · premarket drift of +0.23% on 887 shares, indicative only.

This was the last red light on the board and it isn’t red any more. Health Care had deteriorated two sessions running, by 86.2 points and then 29.5, and on Monday it improved 45.6 points to minus 69.92. It’s still 20.9 points below its own twenty-period average, which is why the verdict reads yellow and not green. The fund is fifth of eleven on the year at plus 8.1%, it closed 5.2% under its fifty-two-week high, and it trades above its two-hundred-day average and below its fifty-day.

Intuitive Surgical was the best name in the sector at plus 3.71% to $406.48. UnitedHealth added 1.80% to $378.58 and AbbVie 1.12% to $265.76, which leaves AbbVie 1.3% under its own fifty-two-week high, the closest of any name in the sector. Eli Lilly was flat at plus 0.02%. Gilead slipped 0.08% and Johnson & Johnson fell 1.21%, the largest decline in the sector.

Intuitive Surgical is also the name to sit with here. A 3.71% session is the best move it has had in weeks, and it’s still down 28.2% on the year and 32.7% below its own fifty-two-week high, which makes it the third-deepest annual loss on this roster. Returning to its January opening level from $406.48 takes a 39.3% advance, and Monday moved that figure by a little under a point and a half. UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson both report on October 13, which puts two of this sector’s six names inside the next reporting window.

Health Care (XLV) closed Monday at $167.37, +0.72%, against a fifty-two-week high of $176.60. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current -69.92, prior session -115.48, twenty-period average -49.00. Current above prior but below average, so the verdict is YELLOW, upgraded from RED on a move of +45.6 points. This removes the last red light from the board.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Intuitive Surgical $406.48 +3.71%, UnitedHealth $378.58 +1.80%, AbbVie $265.76 +1.12%, Eli Lilly $1,143.12 +0.02%, Gilead $144.63 -0.08%, Johnson & Johnson $252.93 -1.21%. Four advancers, two decliners. Above the fifty-day: AbbVie, Gilead, Intuitive Surgical. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 basis: +8.12%, fifth of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($168.53) and above its two-hundred-day ($156.70). UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson report October 13.

The Raw Material Of Everything

Sector CCI(20) Verdict: GREEN, as of Monday’s close · XLB at $49.50, +1.31% on the session · reading -75.85 against a prior -105.25 and a twenty-period average of -125.06 · GREEN held on +29.4 · no premarket trade of any size in the sector fund at 7:20; the quoted spread is a dollar wide.

Materials put up the best session of any sector fund on the board at plus 1.31%, held its green light, and improved 29.4 points. It now sits 49.2 points above its own trailing average. The fund is fourth of eleven on the year at plus 9.2% and trades 8.7% under its fifty-two-week high, below both its fifty-day and its two-hundred-day average.

Five of six names rose. Ecolab led at plus 1.23% to $277.07, Freeport-McMoRan added 0.81% to $72.62, Air Products 0.68% and Linde 0.60% to $482.38, which put Linde above its own fifty-day average. Newmont rose 0.22% on a session when the gold proxy fell 0.16%. Sherwin-Williams was the only decliner at minus 0.33%.

Freeport-McMoRan is the sector’s best name on the year at plus 43.0% and it closed 9.5% under its own fifty-two-week high, which is the smallest drawdown of the six. Two of the six names close above their own fifty-day average, up from one on Friday, and the one that crossed was Linde.

Materials (XLB) closed Monday at $49.50, +1.31%, the best sector-fund session on the board, against a fifty-two-week high of $54.19. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current -75.85, prior session -105.25, twenty-period average -125.06. Current above prior and above average, so the verdict is GREEN and it held on a move of +29.4 points.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Ecolab $277.07 +1.23%, Freeport-McMoRan $72.62 +0.81%, Air Products $279.45 +0.68%, Linde $482.38 +0.60%, Newmont $115.82 +0.22%, Sherwin-Williams $318.46 -0.33%. Five advancers, one decliner. Above the fifty-day: Freeport-McMoRan, Linde, which crossed on this session. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 basis: +9.15%, fourth of eleven. Gold proxy GLD $379.55, -0.16%. Silver proxy SLV $55.13, +0.71%.

The Plumbing Of The Money System

Sector CCI(20) Verdict: GREEN, as of Monday’s close · XLF at $53.88, +0.73% on the session · reading -90.11 against a prior -111.55 and a twenty-period average of -143.03 · GREEN held on +21.4 · premarket drift of +0.12% on 76,510 shares runs with this light.

Financials held green, improved 21.4 points, and crossed back above its own two-hundred-day average on this session, which it had been sitting four tenths of a percent under on Friday. The cushion over its trailing average is 52.9 points. The fund is eighth of eleven on the year at minus 1.6% and it trades 8.1% under its fifty-two-week high, still below its fifty-day.

The payment networks ran the session. Visa added 2.51% to $369.71, which took it above its own fifty-day average and left it 4.1% under its fifty-two-week high, and Mastercard added 2.23% to $564.59. Bank of America rose 0.47% and Berkshire Hathaway 0.42%. Goldman Sachs was the only decliner at minus 1.01% to $893.46, which is 22.6% below its own annual high, and it reports on October 13.

JPMorgan closed at $332.38 against a prior close of $332.38, a session change of zero to the penny. That’s the second roster name in two sessions to finish flat to the penny, after Walmart did it on Friday, and we record it as unchanged rather than folding it into either side of the breadth count. It’s why Monday reads forty-three up and twenty-three down of sixty-seven. JPMorgan also reports on October 13, which makes two of this sector’s six names reporters inside the window.

Financials (XLF) closed Monday at $53.88, +0.73%, against a fifty-two-week high of $58.60. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current -90.11, prior session -111.55, twenty-period average -143.03. Current above prior and above average, so the verdict is GREEN and it held on a move of +21.4 points.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Visa $369.71 +2.51%, Mastercard $564.59 +2.23%, Bank of America $54.00 +0.47%, Berkshire Hathaway $504.78 +0.42%, JPMorgan $332.38 unchanged, Goldman Sachs $893.46 -1.01%. Four advancers, one decliner, one unchanged. Above the fifty-day: Visa, which crossed on this session. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 basis: -1.63%, eighth of eleven. Fund below its fifty-day ($56.81) and above its two-hundred-day ($53.71), which it crossed on this session. Two-year Treasury 4.84%, ten-year 5.31%, spread 47 basis points from 45. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs report October 13.

The Things People Buy Anyway

Sector CCI(20) Verdict: GREEN, as of Monday’s close · XLP at $81.04, +0.63% on the session · reading -118.57 against a prior -148.69 and a twenty-period average of -130.69 · YELLOW to GREEN on +30.1 · premarket drift of +0.04% on 7,138 shares runs with this light.

Consumer Staples now carries a green light on the lowest reading on the board. The improvement was 30.1 points to minus 118.57, which clears its own trailing average of minus 130.69 by 12.1 points, and that clears the arithmetic the engine requires. The reading is still the weakest of the eleven by a wide margin, and this is the clearest illustration we have of what a rate-of-change verdict does and doesn’t say: it says the decline has stopped getting worse, and it says nothing about where the level is.

Five of six names rose. Philip Morris led at plus 1.10% to $189.53, Coca-Cola added 1.00%, Walmart 0.78% to $105.07 after closing exactly flat on Friday, and Procter & Gamble 0.71% to $145.94, which put it above its own fifty-day average and makes it the only name in the sector that can say so. Costco rose 0.31%.

PepsiCo was the lone decliner and it printed another fifty-two-week low. It traded to $124.22 intraday, closed at $125.65 down 0.19%, and it now sits 26.7% under its own fifty-two-week high. That is two consecutive sessions in which PepsiCo has printed a fresh annual low, and the second one landed on the morning its sector was upgraded to green. It reports Thursday before the open at a consensus of $2.30 a share. Anybody holding it goes into that report at the lowest price the stock has traded in a year, inside a sector our board just called green, and both of those readings are doing the job they were built to do.

Consumer Staples (XLP) closed Monday at $81.04, +0.63%, against a fifty-two-week high of $90.14. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current -118.57, prior session -148.69, twenty-period average -130.69. Current above prior and above average, so the verdict is GREEN, upgraded from YELLOW on a move of +30.1 points. This is the lowest current reading on the board.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Philip Morris $189.53 +1.10%, Coca-Cola $86.51 +1.00%, Walmart $105.07 +0.78%, Procter & Gamble $145.94 +0.71%, Costco $923.52 +0.31%, PepsiCo $125.65 -0.19%. Five advancers, one decliner. Above the fifty-day: Procter & Gamble, which crossed on this session. PepsiCo printed a new fifty-two-week low of $124.22 intraday and reports October 8 before the open at a consensus of $2.30 a share. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 basis: +4.33%, sixth of eleven.

The Ground Everything Sits On

Sector CCI(20) Verdict: YELLOW, as of Monday’s close · XLRE at $40.67, -0.34% on the session · reading -119.81 against a prior -114.15 and a twenty-period average of -132.75 · GREEN to YELLOW on -5.7 · no premarket trade in the sector fund at 7:20.

Real Estate was the only sector fund that fell on Monday and the only downgrade on the board that came with a lower closing price behind it. The reading dropped 5.7 points to minus 119.81, which is still 12.9 points above its own trailing average, so the verdict steps down to yellow rather than to red. The fund is seventh of eleven on the year at plus 0.8% and it closed 12.5% under its fifty-two-week high, below both its fifty-day and its two-hundred-day average.

Two names rose and four fell. Simon Property added 0.22% and American Tower four hundredths of a percent. Equinix fell 0.22%, Prologis 0.64%, Public Storage 0.76% and Iron Mountain 0.93%, the largest decline in the sector. Not one of the six closes above its own fifty-day average, which has been true every session for two weeks.

This is the sector with the most direct line to the number at the top of this issue. A ten-year Treasury at 5.31% and a twenty-year at 5.70% are the discount rate every lease and every refinancing in this sector gets measured against, and they both went up again on Monday. American Tower closed at $162.26, which is 1.4% above its own fifty-two-week low and 17.3% under its high. The equity tape spent Monday buying the Nasdaq. The paper that funds buildings got repriced the other way.

Real Estate (XLRE) closed Monday at $40.67, -0.34%, the only sector fund to decline, against a fifty-two-week high of $46.46. Twenty-period Commodity Channel Index on completed daily bars: current -119.81, prior session -114.15, twenty-period average -132.75. Current above average but below prior, so the verdict is YELLOW, downgraded from GREEN on a move of -5.7 points.

Dominators, Monday close and session change: Simon Property $201.40 +0.22%, American Tower $162.26 +0.04%, Equinix $1,023.44 -0.22%, Prologis $128.08 -0.64%, Public Storage $281.66 -0.76%, Iron Mountain $112.33 -0.93%. Two advancers, four decliners. None of the six close above their own fifty-day average. Sector fund year to date on a January 2 basis: +0.79%, seventh of eleven. Long-Treasury proxy TLT $77.11, -0.48%, after printing a new fifty-two-week low of $76.69 intraday.

The board. Six green, five yellow, no red, from seven green, three yellow and one red on Friday. Six of eleven verdicts changed and three went each way, which is the first two-directional session in eight. Energy, Health Care and Consumer Staples upgraded; Technology, Industrials and Real Estate came off green. Ten of the eleven sector funds rose and Real Estate was the one that fell. Eight of the eleven readings improved and three deteriorated, and the three that deteriorated were the three downgrades. The best-to-worst spread across the eleven narrowed to 242.5 points from 279.0.

The ranking barely moved and the verdicts moved a lot. The year-to-date order of the eleven funds is identical to Friday’s, top to bottom, while half the board changed color. That is the distinction this snapshot exists to draw: the ranking measures where the money has gone in nine months, and the verdict measures what happened to the rate of change in the past twenty sessions. Energy is first on the year and holds the thinnest green light on the board at twelve hundredths of a point. Consumer Discretionary is last on the year and holds the widest cushion on the board at 72.2 points.

Participation. Twenty-three of sixty-seven roster names close above their own fifty-day average, from seventeen on Friday and sixteen on Thursday. Six crossed and none dropped out: ConocoPhillips, Alphabet, Linde, Procter & Gamble, Visa and Vistra. Thirty-two of sixty-seven close above their two-hundred-day average, unchanged. Three of eleven sector funds close above their own fifty-day, from two, with Communication Services the one that crossed; four of eleven close above their two-hundred-day, from three, with Financials the one that crossed.

Leaders and laggards inside the roster. Best sessions Monday: Vistra +3.48%, Intuitive Surgical +3.71%, Marathon Petroleum +2.64%, Visa +2.51%, Mastercard +2.23%, Tesla +2.20%, Nvidia +2.12%. Worst: Johnson & Johnson -1.21%, Micron -1.02%, Goldman Sachs -1.01%, Iron Mountain -0.93%, Public Storage -0.76%, NextEra -0.71%. Forty-three of sixty-seven rose, twenty-three fell, and JPMorgan closed exactly flat.

Relative strength against the sector fund. Micron runs 233 points ahead of Technology on the year and Marathon Petroleum 125 points ahead of Energy, which is the whole of what a cap-weighted sector return hides. The other direction is sharper: Oracle trails its own sector by 66 points on the year, Nike trails Consumer Discretionary by 39, and NRG trails Utilities by 33. Vistra is up 3.48% on the session and still trails its own sector fund on the year.

The equal-weighted check. The index as we proxy it closed up 0.67% and the equal-weighted version of the same five hundred companies closed up 0.66%, which is as close as those two have run in a month. Year to date they still read 13.6% against 10.2%. The cap-weighted proxy sits 1.5% above its own fifty-day average and 0.6% under its fifty-two-week high; the equal-weighted version sits 2.6% below its fifty-day and 5.5% under its high. The gap is still there. It stopped widening on Monday.

What the consensus is saying. The line on every screen Tuesday morning is that stocks are shrugging off the bond market. Ten of eleven sector funds rose, so the first half of that is measured and true. The twenty-year Treasury has now closed above the thirty-year for seven consecutive sessions and the long fund printed a fresh annual low on the same bar, so the shrugging is being done by one asset class and not by both.

The reporting window went from one roster name to five overnight, because October 13 is now inside the next seven calendar days and the banks open the quarter. PepsiCo is Thursday before the bell. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth all land on the 13th, and the calendar we pull doesn’t yet carry confirmed report times for those four, so we aren’t asserting before or after the bell on any of them. Outside the roster the week carries Constellation Brands and Lamb Weston today, Levi Strauss and Applied Digital on the 7th, Helen of Troy and Tilray on the 8th, Delta Air Lines on the 9th at a consensus of $1.88 a share, and Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Albertsons and Domino’s on the 13th.

Tuesday’s trade figure is the one that moves the financing arithmetic: a $105.6 billion monthly gap against a $102.0 billion consensus, $17.0 billion wider than July, on a morning the dollar proxy sits at a fifty-two-week high. The Logistics Managers Index went the other way, to 70.2 from 66.6, which says the freight complex is busier and more expensive at the same time.

Read Monday’s services report past the headline. The composite came in at 54.9 against a 55.0 consensus, a fifth consecutive month above fifty and a small miss. Underneath it, the employment component crossed above fifty for the first time since spring, at 50.1 against an expected 48.0, while the business activity component fell more than five points to 56.5 against an expected 61.5. Prices paid went the other way, to 74.0 from 72.6, the highest reading in the series this year. Hiring improved, activity slowed and input costs accelerated, all in the same release, which is why the long end sold off on a report the equity tape read as fine.

Monday paid the top of the table and the bottom of it unevenly. Five of the seven leaders rose, with Marathon Petroleum up 2.64% to a new fifty-two-week high and Freeport-McMoRan up 0.81%, while Micron fell 1.02% and Deere 0.70%. Caterpillar and Deere, which had been separated by less than two hundredths of a point on Friday, are now a point and a half apart. On the laggard side six of the seven rose, led by Intuitive Surgical at plus 3.71%, and Home Depot was the one that fell.

The spread from Micron at the top to Nike at the bottom narrowed to 319.5 percentage points from 323.4, and it narrowed because Nike went up and Micron went down. That is the first session in some time it has closed in that direction. The arithmetic at the bottom of the table hasn’t moved much for all that. Nike at $33.96 needs an 87.6% advance to get back to where it opened the year. NRG at $96.80 needs 64.5%. Intuitive Surgical needs 39.3% and Netflix 38.9%, and those two are separated by two tenths of a percentage point on the year after Intuitive Surgical’s best session in weeks. Somebody reading this owns each of them. Six of the seven laggards had a good Monday, and the board above them went from one red light to none. Neither of those facts changes the arithmetic in the paragraph above, and they aren’t supposed to.

Monday improved two things that don’t usually improve together, and it weakened one that had been holding. Twenty-three of our sixty-seven companies closed above their own fifty-day average, against seventeen on Friday and sixteen on Thursday. The last red light on the board went out when Health Care came off two consecutive sessions of deterioration. And the momentum readings on Technology, Industrials and Real Estate all fell, which takes three of the four sectors that produced this year’s return off green on the same bar.

Those are two different measurements and they aren’t in conflict. A verdict built on rate of change reports whether price is accelerating, and on Monday it got worse at the top of the board and better at the bottom of it. Twenty-three of sixty-seven reports how many companies sit above a line most of them have been under for a month, and it improved by six names after weeks of moving by one. The first measure is why the board carries six green lights. The second is the one we said would matter, and it’s the one that moved.

What didn’t improve is the price of money, and Tuesday morning added a reason. The August trade deficit printed at $105.6 billion against a $102.0 billion consensus, $17.0 billion wider than July, which is a larger external balance to finance at the exact moment the people who finance it are asking more. The ten-year closed at 5.31% and the twenty-year at 5.70%, above the thirty-year for a seventh consecutive session, and the long-Treasury fund printed a fresh fifty-two-week low on the same bar that produced the strongest index reading of this window. Monday’s services report carried its prices-paid component at 74.0, the highest this year, on the same morning its activity component fell more than five points. Somebody pays 74.0. The dollar proxy went to a fifty-two-week high and the euro to a seventeen-month low, which puts the same doubt about government paper on a second screen.

What would change this read is narrow and it can be checked inside a week. If the count of roster names above their own fifty-day average gives back Monday’s six while the index gauge stays green, then Monday was a one-session bounce in a market still carried by a handful of companies, and the broadening in this issue isn’t one. Technology’s light changed color while its price sat a quarter of a percent under a fifty-two-week high, and the CCI and Golden Thread study on the Golden Terminal draws that gap on a single chart.

Somebody you know watched the Nasdaq close at a record on Monday, filled up a work truck at more than six dollars a gallon, and couldn’t make those two facts sit in the same week. They do sit in the same week. The gap between what a refiner pays for crude and what it charges for diesel is the best-performing trade on our roster and the worst line on a fuel receipt, and it’s one number. If they’d want the version with the figures attached, this issue forwards cleanly.

The Daily Update tracks eleven sector verdicts on completed daily bars. Supercycle Trader works the longer arc underneath them: the multi-year cycles in commodities, credit and currency that decide which sectors get a decade and which get a quarter. A refining margin wide enough to put diesel over six dollars while crude falls, a twenty-year Treasury yielding more than a thirty-year for a seventh consecutive session, and a dollar at a fifty-two-week high against a euro at a seventeen-month low are all supercycle questions wearing daily clothes.

Early Earnings Update. Five roster names now report inside the next seven calendar days: PepsiCo on Thursday before the bell, then JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth on October 13. The desk logs a session counter for each reporter alongside its sector light and the market-risk light, and those counters were refreshed on Monday’s completed bars. Four of the five are new to the list this morning, so their counters start at the beginning, and PepsiCo’s started over again because its sector light changed. There’s nothing further to report on it today.

Every directional and magnitude claim above, checked against the live tape. No “trust me, bro.” These are the numbers that pay for your subscription.

This issue is impersonal market commentary for general information. It isn’t personalized investment advice and it isn’t a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The figures here come from vendor market data, public filings and official calendars, and they can be revised. Past performance doesn’t predict future results. Talk to a licensed professional before acting on any of it. The publisher and its staff may hold positions in securities discussed.

The Daily Update · Golden Terminal · Vol. III No. 205 · Tuesday, October 6, 2026