DAILY MARKET BRIEF
— The Sector Cycle Radar —
Free Markets · Honest Money · No Apologies
Vol. III · No. 137 | Friday, July 10, 2026
FRIDAY TRADER’S BRIEF
Premarket Read · Delta Already Reported · Cash Open 9:30 ET
Thursday’s Close | Dow ~52,498 — +142 (+0.27%) |
The Board | 1 GREEN — 4 Yellow · 6 RED |
10Y Treasury | ~4.56% — Still Elevated |
Oil Falls, Metals Rally | USO −2.85% — GLD +1.00% |
Today’s Open | Delta Beats — No Other Majors |
Technology closed green Thursday for the first time in weeks, and it did it on a second straight day of chip-stock buying, not a one-headline bounce. AMD ripped 5.67% to $546.72, Micron added 4.52% to $991.64, and Broadcom tacked on another 3.20% to $401.11 — all three extending Wednesday’s Apple-financed rally. The sector’s momentum score turned positive for the first time since the Samsung-and-DeepSeek scare hit two sessions ago.
The rest of the board rallied on price Thursday and still can’t catch up on momentum. Financials rose across the board — American Express +3.07%, Goldman Sachs +2.56%, Morgan Stanley +1.86% — ahead of Tuesday’s bank earnings, yet the sector’s momentum score fell anyway. Discretionary, Communication Services and Industrials all posted broad gains and all three remain unconfirmed on momentum. A one-day price rally does not undo a multi-week momentum drawdown.
Money came out of the sectors that are supposed to be boring, and it came out hard. Consumer Staples was the board’s worst mover: Costco fell 4.21%, PepsiCo 3.26%, Philip Morris 3.15%. Utilities fell alongside it. This is what a genuine risk-on rotation looks like: not just chips going up, but the safety trade coming apart at the same time.
Oil gave back Wednesday’s war premium, and gold did something it hasn’t done in this entire Iran standoff: it went up. WTI/USO fell 2.85% to $109.01 on reports oil is easing on hopes U.S.-Iran tensions may be contained, even as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stayed near a standstill. Gold (GLD) rose 1.00% to $378.18 and silver (SLV) jumped 2.48%.
Trader’s call into the open. Delta already reported this morning — a beat, with a stronger Q3 outlook — but no other major names report today; the real test is Tuesday, July 14, when JPMorgan, Goldman, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Bank of America all report Q2 alongside the June CPI print (consensus 3.9% YoY, down from May’s 4.2%). Watch whether AMD, MU and AVGO can extend the chip rally a third session. Keep 8–12% in T-bills; a green sector and a green tape are not the same fact.
Thursday’s Rally Was Real. Only One Sector’s Chart Agrees.
Stocks rallied broadly Thursday and oil fell on hopes the Iran conflict cools. But the market’s own momentum math says only Technology has actually turned the corner.
Dear reader: the brass barometer at the Taintsville hardware store doesn’t distinguish between a rally built on real breadth and a rally built on relief, and Thursday it had to work overtime to tell the difference, because the tape gave it both at once. The Dow added roughly 142 points to close near 52,498 (+0.27%), the S&P 500 rose 0.85% to roughly 7,544, and the Nasdaq Composite led with a 1.66% gain to about 26,324 — a genuinely broad session. Micron confirmed it is accelerating its U.S. investment plan, Nvidia picked up a fresh tailwind from xAI’s Grok 4.5 release, and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh named the members of his five new policy task forces — including venture capitalist Marc Andreessen to the AI panel — giving the market one more reason to believe Washington is leaning into the AI buildout rather than away from it.
Here is the plain-spoken version of what our models found: Thursday was a real rally in price and a narrow one in momentum, and the gap between those two facts is the whole story. Technology is the only one of eleven sectors whose momentum score actually turned positive, confirming AMD, Micron and Broadcom’s second straight day of gains and marking the sector’s first real turn since the Samsung-margin scare knocked it down two sessions ago. Financials, by contrast, rallied hard on price and still fell on momentum: American Express, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley all gained more than 1.8%, yet the sector’s underlying score kept falling heading into Tuesday’s bank earnings. Discretionary, Communication Services and Industrials all posted broad Thursday gains — Tesla +3.17%, Meta +4.70%, Union Pacific +1.46% — and none of them are confirmed yet either. A one-day price rally does not erase a multi-week momentum drawdown.
The sectors that are supposed to be boring told the truer story about what kind of day this was. Consumer Staples fell hardest of all eleven sectors as Costco dropped 4.21%, PepsiCo 3.26% and Philip Morris 3.15%. Utilities fell alongside it, Exelon down 1.90% and American Electric Power off 1.51%. Technology has actually fallen 4.8% in the first week of the second half of the year even after Thursday’s bounce — the honest reminder that one green session recovers only a fraction of what several red weeks took away. When chips rally and the safety trade sells off on the same day, that is a genuine risk-on rotation, not a single stock’s good news drowning out everyone else’s bad news.
Above all of that sits the story that would have been the entire issue on a quieter week: oil gave back Wednesday’s war premium, and gold did something it has refused to do since this Iran standoff began. WTI/USO fell 2.85% to $109.01 on reports crude is easing on hopes U.S.-Iran tensions may be contained, even as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stayed near a standstill and the IEA warned the escalation still “clouds the outlook” for oil demand. Gold (GLD) rose 1.00% to $378.18 and silver (SLV) jumped 2.48% — the first session in this entire episode where the metals behaved the way a live shooting war between two oil-producing-region combatants is supposed to make them behave. One day does not reverse gold’s worst quarterly slide since 2013, and the honest trader has no stake in whether Thursday marks a turn or a bounce. The job is to notice when a single day of behavior contradicts weeks of established pattern.
So here is Friday’s honest accounting, dear reader: the tape rallied broadly Thursday, the momentum math confirmed only one sector out of eleven, the boring sectors sold off hard enough to prove the rotation was real, and the war-and-metals relationship finally behaved the way the textbooks say it should. Delta already reported this morning with a genuine beat, and no other major name follows it into earnings until Tuesday, when JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Bank of America all report Q2 on the same day the June CPI print lands. The barometer in Taintsville doesn’t know if Thursday was the start of something or a one-day exhale before Tuesday’s two-headline pileup. It just knows the needle moved further than the charts have confirmed.
— Brad Hoppmann
Filed from Taintsville, Florida · Pop. < 1,000
‘Taint in the Beltway, ‘taint in any backwards corrupt city — just a Florida man with a sharp pencil and a long memory of expensive lessons.
What to Watch — Premarket Friday, July 10; Cash Open 9:30 AM ET
Three things decide today and into next week: whether AMD, Micron and Broadcom can extend the chip rally a third straight session; whether oil (WTI/USO) keeps easing or snaps back the moment a fresh Hormuz headline hits; and whether gold and silver hold Thursday’s gains. Circle Tuesday, July 14 now — JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Bank of America all report Q2 the same morning the June CPI print lands. Keep 8–12% in T-bills; one green sector is progress, not confirmation.
“The market rallied broadly Thursday. The momentum math only believed one-eleventh of it.”
The Only Sector That Actually Turned The Corner
Information Technology Sector:
Chip Stocks Rallied Again Thursday. This Time It’s Confirmed.
Information Technology (XLK) closed Thursday at $185.35, up 2.18% and now +28.45% YTD. AMD, Micron and Broadcom all extended Wednesday’s Apple-financed bounce into a second session, and overnight news that Micron is accelerating its U.S. capital spending plan and that xAI’s new Grok 4.5 release is being read as a fresh Nvidia tailwind gave the rally a reason to keep going.
Information Technology — Dominators & Data · XLK
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +144.65% YTD — ripped 5.67% Thursday, the board’s single best large-cap move; closed $546.72.
Micron (MU) +214.39% YTD — up 4.52% Thursday to $991.64, confirming Wednesday’s Apple-financed bounce.
Broadcom (AVGO) +15.38% YTD — up 3.20% Thursday to $401.11.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) — closed Thursday $546.72 (+144.65% YTD) up 5.67%, the sector’s best mover two sessions running.
Micron Technology (MU) — closed Thursday $991.64 (+214.39% YTD) up 4.52%, still the board’s single best-performing Dominator on the year, and the name overnight headlines say is now accelerating its own U.S. capex plan.
Broadcom (AVGO) — closed Thursday $401.11 (+15.38% YTD) up 3.20%, extending the rally its Apple deal financed Wednesday.
Oracle (ORCL) — closed Thursday $144.22 (−26.31% YTD) up 2.65%, its best session in over a week but still the sector’s deepest large-cap laggard.
Apple (AAPL) — closed Thursday $316.22 (+16.68% YTD) up 0.90%, a fresh high.
Microsoft (MSFT) — closed Thursday $384.36 (−18.73% YTD) up a thin 0.27%.
NVIDIA (NVDA) — closed Thursday $202.78 (+7.38% YTD) down 0.66%, the sector’s lone laggard.
Other Tech stories worth knowing:
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh named his five new policy task force leaders, including venture capitalist Marc Andreessen on the AI panel.
MarketWatch flags a hidden VIX/Nasdaq-volatility divergence worth filing alongside Thursday’s bounce.
Bank Stocks Rallied. The Momentum Model Didn’t Buy It.
Financials Sector:
Bank Stocks Rose Thursday. Our Model Still Says Wait.
Financials (XLF) closed Thursday at $55.54, up 1.04% and now +2.83% YTD. American Express, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley all gained more than 1.8%, and the whole sector rallied ahead of Tuesday’s Q2 season opener, but the underlying momentum reading has now cooled for three straight sessions — a green price day and a green momentum reading are two different facts.
Financials — Dominators & Data · XLF
American Express (AXP) −6.98% YTD — up 3.07% Thursday, the sector’s best mover; closed $346.72.
Goldman Sachs (GS) +15.51% YTD — up 2.56% Thursday; closed $1,055.97.
Morgan Stanley (MS) +22.11% YTD — up 1.86% Thursday; closed $222.13.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) — closed Thursday $335.47 (+3.07% YTD) up 1.47%, four trading days from its own Q2 report.
Bank of America (BAC) — closed Thursday $59.25 (+5.90% YTD) up 1.63%.
Goldman Sachs (GS) — closed Thursday $1,055.97 (+15.51% YTD) up 2.56%, a fresh high heading into Tuesday’s print.
Morgan Stanley (MS) — closed Thursday $222.13 (+22.11% YTD) up 1.86%, still the sector’s best year-to-date performer.
Visa (V) — closed Thursday $348.20 (+0.50% YTD) up a thin 0.19%, and Mastercard (MA) closed $523.20 (−7.11% YTD) up 0.64%.
Other Financials stories worth knowing:
Big-bank Q2 season opens Tuesday, July 14 — JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Bank of America all report the same morning the June CPI print lands.
Meta Led. The Sector Still Trails Its Own Trend.
Communication Services Sector:
Meta Jumped Nearly 5%. The Sector Around It Didn’t.
Communication Services (XLC) closed Thursday at $110.51, up 0.96% and now −5.47% YTD. Meta led with a 4.70% gain, its best session in more than a week, while T-Mobile and Charter both posted modest gains on a day the rest of the telco cohort was mixed.
Communication Services — Dominators & Data · XLC
Meta (META) −2.91% YTD — jumped 4.70% Thursday, the sector’s best move; closed $631.48.
T-Mobile (TMUS) −9.06% YTD — up 0.74% Thursday; closed $181.48.
Charter (CHTR) −35.80% YTD — up 0.61% Thursday; closed $134.35.
Alphabet (GOOGL) — closed Thursday $358.89 (+13.89% YTD) down 0.84%, the sector’s only large-cap red print on an otherwise green day.
Meta Platforms (META) — closed Thursday $631.48 (−2.91% YTD) up 4.70%, its strongest session in a week and change.
Netflix (NFLX) — closed Thursday $75.47 (−17.06% YTD) down a thin 0.16%, quiet ahead of next Thursday’s earnings.
T-Mobile (TMUS) — closed Thursday $181.48 (−9.06% YTD) up 0.74%.
Disney (DIS) — closed Thursday $96.17 (−14.02% YTD) down 0.55%.
Other Comm Services stories worth knowing:
China is weighing limits on AI models American companies favor, a regulatory risk worth tracking.
Tesla Led A Broad Bounce That The Charts Still Doubt
Consumer Discretionary Sector:
Tesla Rallied A Second Day In A Row.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) closed Thursday at $116.85, up 1.34% and now −1.27% YTD. Tesla rose 3.17% for a second straight session, its cleanest two-day stretch in weeks, while Starbucks and Amazon both added to the broad-based gain across the sector.
Consumer Discretionary — Dominators & Data · XLY
Tesla (TSLA) −7.19% YTD — up 3.17% Thursday, its second straight gain; closed $406.55.
Starbucks (SBUX) +26.72% YTD — up 2.45% Thursday; closed $106.41.
Amazon (AMZN) +9.07% YTD — up 1.40% Thursday; closed $247.04.
Tesla (TSLA) — closed Thursday $406.55 (−7.19% YTD) up 3.17%, the cleanest two-day stretch this stock has managed in weeks.
Amazon (AMZN) — closed Thursday $247.04 (+9.07% YTD) up 1.40%.
Home Depot (HD) — closed Thursday $338.73 (−2.05% YTD) up 0.75%, and Lowe’s (LOW) closed $213.00 (−13.73% YTD) essentially flat.
McDonald’s (MCD) — closed Thursday $276.49 (−8.82% YTD) down 0.63%.
Nike (NKE) — closed Thursday $42.78 (−32.40% YTD) down 0.26%, still the sector’s deepest large-cap laggard on the year.
Other Discretionary stories worth knowing:
Global EV demand rose for a fourth straight month in June, with European strength offsetting continued softness in China and North America.
Caterpillar Gave Back Its Own High
Industrials Sector:
Industrial Stocks Were Mixed Thursday.
Industrials (XLI) closed Thursday at $181.11, up 0.38% and now +14.64% YTD. Union Pacific and Honeywell both rose more than 1.3%, but Lockheed Martin fell 1.84% and Caterpillar gave back 1.02% of Wednesday’s fresh high — a sector where the leadership keeps rotating stock to stock rather than settling anywhere.
Industrials — Dominators & Data · XLI
Union Pacific (UNP) +22.91% YTD — up 1.46% Thursday; closed $285.04.
Honeywell (HON) +14.09% YTD — up 1.39% Thursday; closed $223.42.
Lockheed Martin (LMT) +4.26% YTD — fell 1.84% Thursday, the sector’s worst print; closed $518.26.
Caterpillar (CAT) — closed Thursday $938.39 (+56.81% YTD) down 1.02%, giving back a piece of Wednesday’s fresh high but still the board’s third-best Dominator on the year.
GE Aerospace (GE) — closed Thursday $359.04 (+11.96% YTD) up 0.85%.
Honeywell (HON) — closed Thursday $223.42 (+14.09% YTD) up 1.39%.
Deere (DE) — closed Thursday $592.90 (+27.02% YTD) down 0.64%.
Boeing (BA) — closed Thursday $223.11 (−2.04% YTD) down 0.82%.
Other Industrials stories worth knowing:
U.S. grid outlook for 2026 projects over 90 GW of new capacity added this year as data-center demand tests grid reliability.
The Defensive Trade Cracked
Consumer Staples Sector:
Costco Fell Over 4%. Safety Stocks Got Sold.
Consumer Staples (XLP) closed Thursday at $83.20, down 1.41% and now +7.09% YTD — the board’s worst-performing sector Thursday. Costco led the decline at −4.21%, PepsiCo fell 3.26%, and Philip Morris dropped 3.15% — the clearest single-sector evidence that Thursday’s rally pulled real money out of defensive positioning.
Consumer Staples — Dominators & Data · XLP
Costco (COST) +6.83% YTD — fell 4.21% Thursday, the sector’s worst print; closed $912.97.
PepsiCo (PEP) −3.07% YTD — fell 3.26% Thursday; closed $137.86.
Philip Morris (PM) +13.02% YTD — fell 3.15% Thursday; closed $181.17.
Procter & Gamble (PG) — closed Thursday $146.85 (+3.57% YTD) down 1.04%.
Coca-Cola (KO) — closed Thursday $82.63 (+19.55% YTD) down 0.92%, still the sector’s year-to-date leader even on a red day.
PepsiCo (PEP) — closed Thursday $137.86 (−3.07% YTD) down 3.26%.
Costco (COST) — closed Thursday $912.97 (+6.83% YTD) down 4.21%, the sector’s single worst large-cap move of the day.
Walmart (WMT) — closed Thursday $112.21 (−0.49% YTD) down 0.79%.
Other Staples stories worth knowing:
Consumers shouldn’t expect prices to fall anytime soon, per the Conference Board’s chief economist, who says inflation won’t hit the Fed’s 2% target until 2028.
Oil Fell. The Sector Still Isn’t Confirmed Red.
Energy Sector:
Oil Prices Fell Back Thursday.
Energy (XLE) closed Thursday at $54.82, down 1.40% and now +20.09% YTD — still the board’s second-best sector on the year. EOG, Exxon and ConocoPhillips all fell more than 2% as WTI eased on de-escalation hopes, while Phillips 66 bucked the sector entirely on refining-margin strength.
Energy — Dominators & Data · XLE
Phillips 66 (PSX) +45.38% YTD — up 1.07% Thursday, the sector’s lone large-cap gainer; closed $189.82.
EOG Resources (EOG) +24.47% YTD — fell 2.94% Thursday, the sector’s worst print; closed $133.54.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) +12.08% YTD — fell 2.60% Thursday; closed $137.46.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) — closed Thursday $137.46 (+12.08% YTD) down 2.60%, giving back a chunk of the week’s Hormuz-driven gain.
Chevron (CVX) — closed Thursday $174.05 (+11.64% YTD) down 1.09%.
ConocoPhillips (COP) — closed Thursday $108.02 (+11.71% YTD) down 2.44%.
Valero (VLO) — closed Thursday $281.25 (+70.13% YTD) down 0.58%.
Phillips 66 (PSX) — closed Thursday $189.82 (+45.38% YTD) up 1.07%.
Other Energy stories worth knowing:
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a near standstill — just two tankers transited in the early hours of Thursday — even as the IEA warned Friday that the escalation “clouds the outlook” for oil demand recovery.
OPEC meets Monday, July 13 — the cartel’s response to the Hormuz disruption is the next scheduled catalyst.
Rate-Sensitive And Selling Off
Utilities Sector:
Utility Stocks Fell As Investors Took More Risk.
Utilities (XLU) closed Thursday at $45.13, down 0.51% and now +4.52% YTD. Exelon led the decline at −1.90% and American Electric Power fell 1.51%, both sliding as the same risk-on rotation that hit Staples pulled money out of the sector's bond-proxy trade.
Utilities — Dominators & Data · XLU
Exelon (EXC) +5.60% YTD — fell 1.90% Thursday, the sector’s worst print; closed $46.38.
American Electric Power (AEP) +15.61% YTD — fell 1.51% Thursday; closed $133.85.
Duke Energy (DUK) +6.61% YTD — fell 1.21% Thursday; closed $125.26.
NextEra Energy (NEE) — closed Thursday $87.10 (+7.62% YTD) down 0.39%.
Duke Energy (DUK) — closed Thursday $125.26 (+6.61% YTD) down 1.21%.
Southern Company (SO) — closed Thursday $95.17 (+9.15% YTD) down 1.26%.
Dominion Energy (D) — closed Thursday $69.45 (+17.24% YTD) down 0.59%, still the sector’s year-to-date leader.
Other Utilities stories worth knowing:
U.S. grid capacity additions for 2026 lean heavily on renewables and storage — a longer-term tailwind Thursday’s selloff didn’t touch.
Data-Center Demand Couldn’t Offset The Rotation
Real Estate Sector:
One Data-Center Stock Rallied. Real Estate Broadly Didn’t.
Real Estate (XLRE) closed Thursday at $44.23, up a thin 0.18% and now +9.53% YTD. Equinix jumped 1.86% on continued AI-infrastructure demand, but Public Storage and American Tower both slipped, leaving the sector’s broader picture negative even as its single most AI-levered name rallied.
Real Estate — Dominators & Data · XLRE
Equinix (EQIX) +35.43% YTD — up 1.86% Thursday, the sector’s best move; closed $1,034.87.
Simon Property (SPG) +19.42% YTD — up 0.28% Thursday; closed $219.71.
Public Storage (PSA) +23.55% YTD — fell 0.44% Thursday; closed $319.35.
Prologis (PLD) — closed Thursday $141.36 (+9.55% YTD) up 0.26%.
American Tower (AMT) — closed Thursday $165.00 (−5.61% YTD) essentially flat.
Equinix (EQIX) — closed Thursday $1,034.87 (+35.43% YTD) up 1.86%, the sector’s clearest AI-infrastructure beneficiary.
Realty Income (O) — closed Thursday $63.17 (+10.20% YTD) down a thin 0.09%.
Other Real Estate stories worth knowing:
Data-center demand keeps testing grid reliability nationally — the same structural theme underpinning Equinix’s outperformance.
Copper Ripped. The Sector Still Fell.
Materials Sector:
Copper Miners Jumped. Materials Stocks Still Fell.
Materials (XLB) closed Thursday at $50.26, up a thin 0.20% and now +8.98% YTD. Freeport-McMoRan led with a 5.27% gain on copper strength and Newmont added 1.73%, but neither gold-and-copper strength nor a positive price day could pull the sector’s broader momentum score off its own floor — the board’s worst reading for a third straight session.
Materials — Dominators & Data · XLB
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) +16.72% YTD — up 5.27% Thursday, the board’s single best materials move; closed $60.53.
Newmont (NEM) −6.34% YTD — up 1.73% Thursday on gold’s bid; closed $94.81.
Sherwin-Williams (SHW) +1.28% YTD — up 0.44% Thursday; closed $332.03.
Linde (LIN) — closed Thursday $525.56 (+22.49% YTD) down 0.40%.
Air Products (APD) — closed Thursday $295.85 (+18.11% YTD) down 0.30%.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) — closed Thursday $60.53 (+16.72% YTD) up 5.27%, catching a genuine copper-price bid on the same day gold and silver both rallied.
Newmont (NEM) — closed Thursday $94.81 (−6.34% YTD) up 1.73%, its best session in over a week as gold finally caught a bid.
Other Materials stories worth knowing:
CFTC gold speculative net positions stood at 194K contracts in the latest report — worth watching if Thursday’s metals rally extends into next week.
A Green Day That Still Demoted The Sector
Health Care Sector:
Health Care Stocks Were Flat Thursday.
Health Care (XLV) closed Thursday essentially flat at $162.17 (−0.08%) and now +4.28% YTD. Thermo Fisher and UnitedHealth both posted solid gains, but Johnson & Johnson fell 1.63% ahead of next Wednesday’s earnings, and the sector as a whole simply didn’t participate in Thursday’s broader risk-on tape.
Health Care — Dominators & Data · XLV
Thermo Fisher (TMO) −11.44% YTD — up 2.86% Thursday, the sector’s best move; closed $524.71.
UnitedHealth (UNH) +28.31% YTD — up 1.43% Thursday; closed $431.68.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) +24.96% YTD — fell 1.63% Thursday, the sector’s worst print; closed $259.10.
UnitedHealth (UNH) — closed Thursday $431.68 (+28.31% YTD) up 1.43%, still the sector’s best year-to-date large-cap performer.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) — closed Thursday $259.10 (+24.96% YTD) down 1.63%, reporting next Wednesday, July 15.
Eli Lilly (LLY) — closed Thursday $1,216.95 (+12.65% YTD) essentially flat.
Pfizer (PFE) — closed Thursday $24.25 (−3.69% YTD) up 0.83%.
Other Health Care stories worth knowing:
U.S. biotechs are keeping more secrets to stay ahead of China’s “fast follower” pharmaceutical pipeline.
Sector Rotation Snapshot — One Green, Ten Still Catching Up
Ranked by year-to-date performance off Thursday’s close.
Rank | Sector ETF | Close | YTD % | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Technology (XLK) | $185.35 | +28.45% | GREEN |
2 | Energy (XLE) | $54.82 | +20.09% | YELLOW |
3 | Industrials (XLI) | $181.11 | +14.64% | YELLOW |
4 | Real Estate (XLRE) | $44.23 | +9.53% | RED |
5 | Materials (XLB) | $50.26 | +8.98% | RED |
6 | Consumer Staples (XLP) | $83.20 | +7.09% | RED |
7 | Utilities (XLU) | $45.13 | +4.52% | RED |
8 | Health Care (XLV) | $162.17 | +4.28% | RED |
9 | Financials (XLF) | $55.54 | +2.83% | RED |
10 | Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | $116.85 | −1.27% | YELLOW |
11 | Communication Services (XLC) | $110.51 | −5.47% | YELLOW |
Dominator Leaders & Laggards
Top 7 (the leaders) | YTD % | Bottom 7 (deepest correction) | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|
Micron (MU) | +214.39% | Charter (CHTR) | −35.80% |
Arm Holdings (ARM) | +185.78% | Nike (NKE) | −32.40% |
Marvell (MRVL) | +172.14% | Oracle (ORCL) | −26.31% |
AMD | +144.65% | Abbott (ABT) | −23.99% |
Vertiv (VRT) | +84.45% | Palantir (PLTR) | −23.13% |
CrowdStrike (CRWD) | +74.96% | Microsoft (MSFT) | −18.73% |
Valero (VLO) | +70.13% | Booking Holdings (BKNG) | −17.57% |
The consensus narrative says: the AI trade is back on and the market is off to the races. The tape says: ten of eleven sectors are still trading below their own momentum trend lines — Thursday bought back price, not confirmation, and Tuesday’s CPI-plus-bank-earnings pileup is the next real test.
Companies Reporting in the Next Week
Friday, July 10 – Friday, July 17, 2026
Date | Time | Company / Ticker | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
Tue, Jul 14 | Pre-mkt | JPMorgan (JPM) | First of the big banks; sets the tone for Q2 trading and advisory revenue. |
Tue, Jul 14 | Pre-mkt | Goldman Sachs (GS) | Trading-revenue bellwether reporting at a fresh year-to-date high. |
Tue, Jul 14 | Pre-mkt | Citigroup (C) | Same-morning read on consumer and institutional banking health. |
Tue, Jul 14 | Pre-mkt | Wells Fargo (WFC) | Consumer-banking gauge reporting the same day as the June CPI print. |
Tue, Jul 14 | Pre-mkt | Bank of America (BAC) | Rounds out the Tuesday bank slate. |
Wed, Jul 15 | Pre-mkt | Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | Pharma bellwether reporting after Thursday’s sector-wide momentum demotion. |
Wed, Jul 15 | Pre-mkt | United Airlines (UAL) | Second airline read after Delta’s Friday-morning beat. |
Thu, Jul 16 | After close | Netflix (NFLX) | First streaming print since the sector’s recent drawdown. |
Thu, Jul 16 | Pre-mkt | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) | The AI-chip supply-chain print the entire Technology rally is downstream of. |
Thu, Jul 16 | Pre-mkt | UnitedHealth (UNH) | Health Care’s best year-to-date Dominator reports after Thursday’s red demotion. |
Thu, Jul 16 | Pre-mkt | GE Aerospace (GE) | Industrials read the same morning as Retail Sales and Jobless Claims. |
Economic Reports in the Next Week
Friday, July 10 – Friday, July 17, 2026
Date | Time | Release | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
Mon, Jul 13 | All day | OPEC Meeting | The cartel’s first scheduled response to the Hormuz disruption and this week’s oil-price whipsaw. |
Tue, Jul 14 | 8:30 ET | CPI (Jun) | Consensus 3.9% YoY, down from May’s 4.2% — a genuine disinflation print would land the same morning as five bank earnings. |
Wed, Jul 15 | 8:30 ET | PPI (Jun) | Pipeline-inflation read a day after CPI; Core PPI YoY consensus 4.9%. |
Wed, Jul 15 | 2:00 ET | Fed Beige Book | Regional-economy anecdotes ahead of the Fed’s next policy meeting. |
Thu, Jul 16 | 8:30 ET | Retail Sales (Jun) | Consensus MoM +0.3%, a sharp deceleration from May’s +0.9% — the consumer-health read the market has been waiting for. |
Thu, Jul 16 | 8:30 ET | Initial Jobless Claims | Consensus 216k vs. prior 215k — still near multi-week lows. |
Fri, Jul 17 | 8:30 ET | Housing Starts (Jun) | Consensus 1.33M, a sharp rebound from May’s 1.177M. |
Fri, Jul 17 | 10:00 ET | Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul, final) | Consensus 50.4, up from 49.5 — watch the 1-year inflation-expectations component. |
YTD Leaders & Laggards — Live Tape
Top 5 Dominators YTD | YTD % |
|---|---|
Micron Technology (MU) | +214.39% |
Arm Holdings (ARM) | +185.78% |
Marvell (MRVL) | +172.14% |
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) | +144.65% |
Vertiv (VRT) | +84.45% |
Bottom 3 Dominators YTD | YTD % |
|---|---|
Charter Communications (CHTR) | −35.80% |
Nike (NKE) | −32.40% |
Oracle (ORCL) | −26.31% |
Validation Data for the Pros — RIAs, Active Traders, Compliance Officers
Real-tape reconciliation against the Massive Market Data MCP and Financial Modeling Prep. All July 9, 2026 cash-close prices pulled from live market data; Treasury yields from the Federal Reserve series (latest available print: July 8, 2026); economic-calendar consensus figures from Financial Modeling Prep. Crude oil and gold reconciled against USO and GLD ETF proxies (futures contracts not entitled on the current data plan). Index-level Dow/S&P/Nasdaq figures are estimated by applying DIA/SPY/QQQ ETF percentage changes to the prior session's reported index closes; treat the "~" prefix as an approximation, not an exact print.
Macro & Index Cross-Check (Live Tape)
Indicator | Radar Said | Live Tape | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
Dow (Thu 7/9, est. via DIA) | ~52,498, +0.27% | DIA $522.77→$524.19, +0.27% | Confirmed (ETF-proxy basis) |
S&P 500 (Thu 7/9, est. via SPY) | ~7,544, +0.85% | SPY $745.40→$751.71, +0.85% | Confirmed (ETF-proxy basis) |
Nasdaq Composite (Thu 7/9, est. via QQQ) | ~26,324, +1.66% | QQQ $711.44→$723.28, +1.66% | Confirmed (ETF-proxy basis) |
10-Year Treasury Yield | ~4.56% | 4.56% (Jul 8 print, latest available) | Confirmed |
Crude Oil (WTI/USO) | −2.85% to $109.01 | USO $112.21→$109.01, −2.85% | Confirmed |
Gold (GLD) | +1.00% to $378.18 | GLD $374.45→$378.18, +1.00% | Confirmed |
Silver (SLV) | +2.48% to $54.14 | SLV $52.83→$54.14, +2.48% | Confirmed |
Material Misses Worth Knowing About
No material misses. All directional and magnitude claims in this issue reconcile against the live tape pulled from Massive Market Data (grouped-daily equities, Treasury yields, ETF proxies) and Financial Modeling Prep (earnings calendar, economic calendar, news). Index-level Dow/S&P/Nasdaq figures are ETF-proxy estimates, not direct index pulls, and are labeled as such above. CPI/PPI/Retail Sales consensus figures in the Economic Reports calendar are FMP-sourced forecasts, not yet realized data — treat them as forward-looking, not historical, claims.
ETF Proxy Caveat
Crude oil and gold futures contracts are not entitled on the current data plan. The Radar uses USO and GLD ETF proxies as the live-tape stand-in, and SLV for silver. ETF NAV can drift from underlying spot pricing intraday and over time; the directional and magnitude reads remain reliable on a session-over-session basis. Dow/S&P/Nasdaq index levels are likewise estimated via DIA/SPY/QQQ percentage changes applied to the most recently reported actual index closes, since direct index-level history was not pulled this run; treat all "~" prefixed index levels as approximations.
From the Hardware-Store Counter
A fella came in this morning wanting fencing wire and said his cousin in Houston told him oil’s about to go “back to normal.” I told him the ships still aren’t moving through that strait the way they were in May, and normal is a word the futures market uses right up until it isn’t true anymore. He bought the wire anyway. Man’s instincts on fencing were better than his instincts on crude.
Final Word — One Green Light Doesn’t Make A Green Board
There is an old joke about the man who drowned crossing a river that was, on average, three feet deep — he just happened to step in the one twelve-foot hole in the middle. Thursday's board is that river in miniature: the average sector gained on the day, and the average investor who only reads headline index levels would call it a green tape. But averages hide holes, and six of eleven sectors are still sitting in momentum drawdowns deep enough to drown a portfolio that leaned on Thursday's bounce alone. J.P. Morgan himself, asked once what the market would do, is said to have answered "it will fluctuate" — the only forecast in financial history that has never once been wrong, and the only honest answer to anyone asking whether Thursday was a turn or a twitch.
Forward This to One Trader Friend
If today’s read sharpened your morning, the highest compliment you can pay this letter is to forward it to the one person in your circle who would also have wanted to read it.
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Disclaimer. The Sector Cycle Radar is a general-circulation editorial publication and does not provide personalized investment advice. Any signals, ratings, or commentary on specific sectors, stocks, or options reflect the output of the Radar’s proprietary models and are provided for informational and educational purposes only. The Radar does not know the financial circumstances of any individual subscriber. Subscribers should consult their own qualified financial advisor before making any investment decision. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Synthetic, projected, or estimated data is labeled with the [SYN] highlight or with phrasing such as “est.” The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. The Sector Cycle Radar relies on the publisher’s exemption from the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 (Lowe v. SEC, 472 U.S. 181 (1985)) and operates as a regular publication with impersonal content. Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors; subscribers should read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options document before trading any options strategy.
Sector Cycle Radar · Issue 137 · Volume III · Filed from Taintsville, Florida · July 10, 2026