Vol. III · No. 145 | Monday, July 20, 2026
Daily Update
Sector Cycle Radar
Free Markets · Honest Money · No Apologies
Monday Trader's Brief 30-Second Read · Cash Open 9:30 ET
S&P 500 | 7,457.69 — −1.01% Fri. |
Nasdaq Comp. | 25,520.24 — −1.40% Fri. |
10-Yr Yield | 4.558% — Mon. AM, +1bp |
VIX | 18.25 — +9.09% Fri. |
Crude (USO) | $123.96 — Brent >$90 wknd. |
The U.S. and Iran fought all weekend, and Americans died. Two U.S. service members were killed and a third is presumed dead, the first American combat deaths since April. Brent crude jumped back above $90 a barrel Sunday night.
Wall Street shrugged it off. Stock futures were quietly higher Monday morning, even after the deadliest weekend of this war so far.
Friday's board already showed a rotation story. Ten of eleven sectors fell, but our momentum scan still counted four green sectors — same as Thursday. Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services turned red. Utilities and Materials turned green.
Two stocks did most of Friday's damage. Netflix fell 7.26% on weak guidance. Intuitive Surgical fell 14.14%, and we don't yet know why.
This week is the real test. Tesla, Alphabet, and Intel all report Wednesday and Thursday — the first hard evidence in weeks on whether AI spending is paying off.
Two Americans Died Over the Weekend. Wall Street Shrugged.
Stocks fell Friday before the war got worse. This week's Tesla, Alphabet, and Intel earnings will matter more than the weekend's headlines.
Dear reader, somewhere between a "war scare" and an actual war there is a line, and the market spent the weekend finding out which side of it we are now on. The United States carried out an eighth consecutive day of strikes against Iran, and for the first time since April this Radar has to report American fatalities: two service members killed and a third presumed dead in Iranian missile and drone strikes on a base in Jordan. Brent crude broke back above $90 a barrel Sunday night on the news, U.S. gasoline topped $4 a gallon in more markets than it has in months, and by the numbers alone you would expect Monday's futures to be ugly. They are not. Wall Street's index futures were quietly higher heading into Monday's open — a market that has now watched five months of this same war without ever quite pricing it the way the headlines suggest it should.
That composure, if that is what it is, did not start this weekend. It was already visible Friday, before any of this news broke. Ten of our eleven tracked sectors closed lower, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.40% to 25,520.24, the S&P 500 dropped 1.01% to 7,457.69, and the VIX jumped 9.09% to 18.25 — by any conventional reading, a genuinely bad session. And yet our own 20-period momentum board, recomputed fresh against Friday's close, still reads four green sectors out of eleven, the exact same headline tally it carried Thursday. The number held. What sits underneath it did not: Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services both broke from constructive readings into outright red, while Utilities climbed out of red into a more hopeful yellow and Materials flipped green despite every single Materials Dominator we track closing lower on the day. A stable headline count with real rotation underneath it is, if anything, a more useful signal than a board that simply gets worse in a straight line — it says the selling has a source, and the source is not everywhere at once.
The sources, this time, were easy to name. Netflix's Thursday-night guidance miss finally traded for real Friday, and the stock fell 7.26% to $68.95 — the "roughly 9%" premarket estimate this Radar flagged Friday morning landed close enough — and Meta Platforms gave back another 2.79% alongside it, dragging Communication Services into red. The chip complex kept bleeding in pieces: NVIDIA fell 2.21%, Alphabet fell 2.17%, Microsoft fell 1.82%, even as Marvell — last week's single worst mover, down more than 8% in one session twice — actually closed Friday up 0.20%, its first green close since the Korea exchange halt. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are now publicly arguing about what that means: JPMorgan is telling clients a summer buying opportunity in chip stocks is close, Morgan Stanley is telling clients the sector has a hard rest of 2026 ahead of it. Both banks are looking at the same tape. Neither one is wrong yet, which is usually the case right before one of them very obviously is.
China's own "national team" spent Friday buying nearly $9 billion of shares to prop up a market absorbing the same global chip selloff, which is either a sign of genuine stress in Shanghai and Shenzhen or a signal that Beijing has decided this particular selloff is not one it intends to let run — likely some of both. Closer to home, Real Estate posted the board's strongest CCI reading for a second straight session (215.52, comfortably clear of its own 10-session average), and Monday delivered the sector fresh proof of the thesis before the open: Brookfield Asset Management and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board agreed to buy LXP Industrial Trust for roughly $5.2 billion in an all-cash deal, the second nine-figure-plus logistics-and-industrial real estate transaction this Radar has flagged in two weeks, following PayPal's $53 billion take-private. Energy, unsurprisingly, was the board's only green session Friday even before the weekend's fresh escalation, up 1.16% as Chevron, Exxon, ConocoPhillips, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 all closed higher — and every one of those names should open Monday with a bigger tailwind than Friday's tape alone suggests.
None of this happens in a vacuum this week. Tesla, Alphabet, and Intel all report after the bell Wednesday and Thursday, in the same seven days Wall Street will finally get real, audited answers to the question every strategist has been debating on cable all summer: is the AI capital-spending story still paying for itself, or is it starting to look, as one widely read piece put it this weekend, like the early innings of the dot-com bust replayed at hyperscale? The Wall Street Journal is already reporting that "everyday investors" are souring on the Magnificent Seven and rotating into "newer AI trades," which is either healthy diversification or the exact behavior that shows up first, near a top. We do not know which yet. Nobody does. The job this week is not to guess — it is to have a plan for both answers before Wednesday's closing bell makes the guess for you.
— Brad Hoppmann
Filed from Taintsville, Florida · Pop. < 1,000 'Taint in the Beltway, 'taint in any backwards corrupt city — just a Florida man with a sharp pencil and a long memory of expensive lessons.
What to Watch — Monday's Docket The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for June lands at 10:00 AM ET, the week's only economic print before Thursday. No Power Dominator reports today or tomorrow — the earnings calendar doesn't open until Wednesday's Freeport-McMoRan, Philip Morris, and NextEra Energy premarket prints, followed by Tesla, IBM, and Alphabet after Wednesday's close, then Intel Thursday night. Crude carries a fresh geopolitical premium into the open after the weekend's escalation; watch whether Energy extends Friday's lone green session or whether the "buy oil, sell everything else" trade that opened two weeks ago reasserts itself.
"A stable headline count with real rotation underneath it is, if anything, a more useful signal than a board that simply gets worse in a straight line."
The Full Sector-By-Sector Radar Continues Below
Sector 01 · The Engines of the Modern Economy
Information Technology Sector:
CCI(20) Verdict: RED — momentum deteriorating
Current CCI −187.62 vs. prior session −149.04, vs. 10-session trailing average −76.64. XLK closed Friday at $175.59, −1.09%. The board's deepest red reading for a second straight session, and it deepened further rather than stabilizing.
Marvell Stopped Falling. Most Other Chip Stocks Didn't.
Technology fell 1.09% Friday and our momentum scan shows the sector's worst reading getting worse for a second consecutive session — the deepest red on the entire board. The one genuine bright spot: Marvell, last week's single most battered name, closed up 0.20%, its first positive session since the Korea exchange halt rattled the whole complex. It did not spread. NVIDIA fell 2.21%, Microsoft fell 1.82%, Broadcom fell 0.97%, and Micron slipped another 0.50% on top of a monthlong decline that has already run past 25%. Apple and Oracle were the sector's other two green names, up 0.14% and 1.77% respectively, both mega-caps still absorbing capital that is fleeing the chip-specific story rather than the sector broadly.
International Business Machines IBM — Closed Friday at $212.67, down $6.38, or 2.91%, giving back the bulk of Thursday's 3.72% bounce.
CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD — Closed Friday at $203.08, down $0.68, or 0.33%, essentially flat and still the far-and-away YTD leader of our entire universe.
Other Tech stories worth knowing:
Marvell (MRVL) — Closed up 0.20% Friday at $188.68, its first green close since the Korea exchange halt.
NVIDIA (NVDA) — Fell 2.21% to $202.81; JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are publicly split on whether chip stocks are near a bottom.
Oracle (ORCL) — Gained 1.77% to $126.41, one of only three green Dominators in the sector.
Sector 02 · The Nation's Medicine Cabinet
Health Care Sector:
CCI(20) Verdict: YELLOW — momentum indecisive
Current CCI 62.19 vs. prior session 56.15, vs. 10-session trailing average 76.34. XLV closed Friday at $161.09, −0.44%. Improving from session to session but still shy of its own trailing average — an unconfirmed yellow, not yet a green.
Intuitive Surgical Fell 14%. Nobody Knows Why Yet.
Health Care slipped a modest 0.44% Friday, a quiet session compared to the rest of the board, but it masks the single sharpest individual-stock move anywhere in our tracked universe: Intuitive Surgical fell 14.14% to $345.42, and neither the Massive Market Data feed nor this run's news pull surfaces a specific catalyst. We are flagging it exactly as found rather than inventing a reason — see the Validation Data section below. Away from that outlier, the sector's actual earnings news stayed positive: Abbott Laboratories added another 1.87% on top of Thursday's 10.71% beat-and-raise, Johnson & Johnson gained 1.23%, and UnitedHealth added 0.64%.
Abbott Laboratories ABT — Closed Friday at $100.68, up $1.85, or 1.87%, extending Thursday's beat-and-raise rally.
Johnson & Johnson JNJ — Closed Friday at $253.04, up $3.07, or 1.23%.
UnitedHealth Group UNH — Closed Friday at $426.09, up $2.71, or 0.64%.
Intuitive Surgical ISRG — Closed Friday at $345.42, down $56.91, or 14.14% — the sector's, and the entire universe's, sharpest single-day move. Cause unconfirmed; see Validation Data.
Sector 03 · The Plumbing of Capitalism
Financials Sector:
CCI(20) Verdict: RED — momentum deteriorating
Current CCI 90.17 vs. prior session 114.69, vs. 10-session trailing average 130.15. XLF closed Friday at $56.26, −0.86%. Momentum deterioration accelerating for a second session — the same profit-taking pattern that hit the sector Thursday just kept running.
Bank Stocks Fell for a Second Straight Day.
Financials fell 0.86% Friday, extending Thursday's reversal in the sector's biggest names. Goldman Sachs fell another 2.76% on top of Thursday's 4.91% drop, Citigroup fell 1.78%, and Morgan Stanley fell 1.31% — all three still digesting genuinely strong Q2 earnings that the market has now spent two straight sessions selling anyway. JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo all posted smaller declines, and PayPal eased 0.30% after two weeks of steady gains on the confirmed Stripe/Advent buyout.
Goldman Sachs Group GS — Closed Friday at $1,065.22, down $30.24, or 2.76%, still up sharply year-to-date despite two straight down sessions.
Morgan Stanley MS — Closed Friday at $215.50, down $2.87, or 1.31%.
Citigroup C — Closed Friday at $129.36, down $2.35, or 1.78%.
JPMorgan Chase JPM — Closed Friday at $341.10, down $2.05, or 0.60%.
Bank of America BAC — Closed Friday at $61.27, down $0.22, or 0.36%.
Wells Fargo WFC — Closed Friday at $87.51, down $0.56, or 0.64%.
PayPal Holdings PYPL — Closed Friday at $56.56, down $0.17, or 0.30%, still up double digits over the past two weeks on the confirmed $53 billion Stripe/Advent International takeover.
Sector 04 · What America Buys When It Feels Good
Consumer Discretionary Sector:
CCI(20) Verdict: RED — momentum reversed
Current CCI −26.66 vs. prior session 76.57, vs. 10-session trailing average 20.16. XLY closed Friday at $115.44, −1.62%. A genuine reversal — the sector's two-session green streak snapped hard, falling from comfortably positive to negative and now sits below its own trailing average.
Consumer Discretionary's Winning Streak Ended Friday.
Consumer Discretionary fell 1.62% Friday, its worst session of the week, and the momentum reversal is real: a reading that had been building for two straight sessions flipped negative outright. Home Depot led the damage, down 2.63%, with Starbucks off 2.66%, McDonald's down 2.10%, and Nike down 1.82%. Amazon and Tesla, the sector's two largest Dominators, both fell but by less than the sector average — down 1.06% and 2.61% respectively.
Amazon.com AMZN — Closed Friday at $247.23, down $2.66, or 1.06%.
Tesla TSLA — Closed Friday at $380.84, down $10.22, or 2.61%, ahead of Wednesday's after-hours earnings report.
Other Consumer Discretionary stories worth knowing:
Home Depot (HD) — Fell 2.63% to $338.87, the sector's worst mover.
Starbucks (SBUX) — Fell 2.66% to $105.49.
Sector 05 · The Attention Economy
Communication Services Sector:
CCI(20) Verdict: RED — momentum reversed
Current CCI 50.00 vs. prior session 134.78, vs. 10-session trailing average 70.35. XLC closed Friday at $110.65, −1.78%. Netflix's guidance miss finally traded for real, and the sector paid for it — a clean reversal from Wednesday's board-leading session.
Netflix's Weak Guidance Hit the Stock Hard Friday.
Communication Services fell 1.78% Friday, the board's second-worst session, as Netflix's Thursday-night guidance miss finally hit the tape: shares fell 7.26% to $68.95, roughly in line with Friday morning's premarket indication. Meta Platforms added to the damage, down 2.79% on top of Thursday's own 2.46% decline, while Disney fell 2.05%. The telecom names held up better — AT&T down 0.77%, Verizon down 0.66% — a reminder that this was a growth-media story, not a sector-wide one.
Netflix NFLX — Closed Friday at $68.95, down $5.40, or 7.26%, on Wednesday's weak Q3 guidance following a record $12.56 billion Q2.
Meta Platforms META — Closed Friday at $646.01, down $18.53, or 2.79%.
Walt Disney DIS — Closed Friday at $97.67, down $2.04, or 2.05%.
AT&T T — Closed Friday at $21.81, down $0.17, or 0.77%. Reports Friday, July 24 premarket.
Verizon Communications VZ — Closed Friday at $43.59, down $0.29, or 0.66%. Reports Friday, July 24 premarket.
Sector 06 · The Hands That Build and Move Things
Industrials Sector:
CCI(20) Verdict: RED — momentum deteriorating
Current CCI −99.74 vs. prior session −91.78, vs. 10-session trailing average −14.76. XLI closed Friday at $179.41, −0.41%. Momentum kept deteriorating even as the price move was modest — a genuine flip from Thursday's yellow, not a rounding error.
GE Bounced Back. United Airlines Fell Again.
Industrials fell a modest 0.41% Friday, but the momentum read moved backward for a fourth straight session, deepening further below its own trailing average. GE Aerospace added 0.90%, a partial bounce after Thursday's 4.06% drop, while United Airlines fell 2.86%, more than erasing its own Thursday decline. Caterpillar and UPS both closed modestly higher, up 0.35% and 0.46%.
GE Aerospace GE — Closed Friday at $348.83, up $3.10, or 0.90%, a partial bounce after Thursday's 4.06% drop.
United Airlines Holdings UAL — Closed Friday at $115.41, down $3.40, or 2.86%.
Other Industrials stories worth knowing:
Caterpillar (CAT) — Up 0.35% to $880.28.
Honeywell and Union Pacific both report Thursday, July 23 premarket.
Sector 07 · What You Buy Whether You Feel Good or Not
Consumer Staples Sector:
CCI(20) Verdict: GREEN — momentum leading
Current CCI 163.84 vs. prior session 129.79, vs. 10-session trailing average 21.41. XLP closed Friday at $85.19, −0.72%. Momentum kept building even on a down session — the third sector today where the trend and the daily price move disagree.
Coca-Cola Fell, But the Sector's Trend Still Looks Strong.
Consumer Staples fell 0.72% Friday on the tape, yet our momentum scan reads the sector as strengthening for a second straight session — comfortably clear of its own trailing average. The disconnect is almost entirely one stock: Coca-Cola fell 3.96% to $81.56, giving back the entirety of Thursday's 3.00% rip and then some, while Conagra and Procter & Gamble posted smaller declines of 1.31% and 1.00%. A single loud reversal in the sector's most-watched name is masking a broader trend that, on our numbers, is still pointed the right way.
Coca-Cola KO — Closed Friday at $81.56, down $3.36, or 3.96%, giving back the whole of Thursday's rally.
Conagra Brands CAG — Closed Friday at $14.28, down $0.19, or 1.31%.
Procter & Gamble PG — Closed Friday at $149.98, down $1.52, or 1.00%.
Sector 08 · What Comes Out of the Ground
Energy Sector:
CCI(20) Verdict: GREEN — momentum leading
Current CCI 162.39 vs. prior session 152.10, vs. 10-session trailing average 75.18. XLE closed Friday at $57.68, +1.16%. The board's only green session Friday, and momentum keeps building clear of its own trailing average for a third straight day.
Energy Was Friday's Only Winner. Oil Jumped Again Over the Weekend.
Energy gained 1.16% Friday, the only one of our eleven tracked sectors to close higher, even before the weekend delivered the news that will matter most this week: an eighth consecutive day of U.S. strikes on Iran, the first confirmed American combat deaths since April, and Brent crude back above $90 a barrel by Sunday night. Chevron, Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 all closed higher Friday on a geopolitical premium that was already building before the latest escalation — Marathon and Phillips 66 led the group, up 2.21% and 2.75%.
Chevron CVX — Closed Friday at $187.38, up $3.52, or 1.91%.
Exxon Mobil XOM — Closed Friday at $147.36, up $1.41, or 0.97%.
ConocoPhillips COP — Closed Friday at $114.71, up $1.87, or 1.66%.
Marathon Petroleum MPC — Closed Friday at $312.60, up $6.75, or 2.21%, the sector's standout mover.
Phillips 66 PSX — Closed Friday at $206.86, up $5.54, or 2.75%.
EOG Resources EOG — Closed Friday at $139.89, up $1.43, or 1.03%.
Sector 09 · The Sector Nobody Loves Until They Need It
Utilities Sector:
CCI(20) Verdict: YELLOW — momentum improving
Current CCI 1.42 vs. prior session −1.48, vs. 10-session trailing average 39.93. XLU closed Friday at $45.17, −0.66%. Momentum crossed back to positive for the first time in over a week, though still well shy of its own trailing average — an improving yellow, not yet a green.
Utilities Fell Friday, But the Trend Just Turned Positive.
Utilities fell 0.66% Friday, yet the momentum read crossed back into positive territory for the first time in more than a week — still shy of confirming a green, but a real change in direction after sitting in red since early last week. Vistra was the sector's standout, up 1.89% on the same AI-data-center power-demand thesis that has carried it all year, while NRG fell 2.74%. Duke Energy and NextEra both eased modestly; NextEra reports Wednesday premarket, the first look this Radar gets at how the sector's largest Dominator is actually performing rather than just trading.
Duke Energy DUK — Closed Friday at $125.01, down $1.10, or 0.87%.
NextEra Energy NEE — Closed Friday at $88.80, down $0.55, or 0.62%. Reports Wednesday, July 22 premarket.
Vistra Corp. VST — Closed Friday at $155.44, up $2.88, or 1.89%, the sector's standout on its AI-power-demand thesis.
NRG Energy NRG — Closed Friday at $129.11, down $3.64, or 2.74%.
Sector 10 · Where Everyone Lives, Works, and Shops
Real Estate Sector:
CCI(20) Verdict: GREEN — momentum leading
Current CCI 215.52 vs. prior session 185.65, vs. 10-session trailing average 31.40. XLRE closed Friday at $45.42, −0.09%. The board's strongest reading for a second straight session, comfortably clear of its own trailing average despite a flat price day.
Real Estate Has the Board's Best Trend. A New $5.2 Billion Deal Backs It Up.
Real Estate closed essentially flat Friday, down just 0.09%, but our momentum scan still reads it as the strongest sector on the entire board for a second consecutive session. Prologis eased 0.18%, giving back a sliver of Wednesday's 4.63% earnings pop, but the sector got fresh validation before Monday's open: Brookfield Asset Management and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board agreed to buy LXP Industrial Trust for roughly $5.2 billion in an all-cash deal, the second nine-figure-plus logistics-and-industrial real estate transaction this Radar has flagged in two weeks, after PayPal's $53 billion take-private. Private capital keeps writing large checks for the same warehouse-and-logistics real estate our own model has been flagging as the sector's leadership all year.
Prologis PLD — Closed Friday at $149.79, down $0.27, or 0.18%, still the sector's core position after Wednesday's earnings pop.
Other Real Estate stories worth knowing:
LXP Industrial Trust (not a Dominator) — Brookfield Asset Management and CPP Investments agreed to buy the industrial REIT for roughly $5.2 billion in cash, per WSJ, reported Monday morning.
Sector 11 · What Everything Else Is Made Of
Materials Sector:
CCI(20) Verdict: GREEN — momentum leading
Current CCI −47.05 vs. prior session −63.56, vs. 10-session trailing average −57.91. XLB closed Friday at $50.53, −0.71%. Momentum flipped green even as every single Dominator we track in the sector closed lower — the trend improving off a deeply oversold base, not yet reflected in any individual name's price.
Every Materials Stock Fell Friday. The Trend Still Turned Positive.
Materials fell 0.71% Friday, and every single Dominator we track in the sector — Linde, Freeport-McMoRan, Newmont, Air Products, Ecolab, Sherwin-Williams — closed lower on the day. And yet our momentum scan flips the sector green, climbing out of a deeply oversold reading that has held for most of the past two weeks. It is the same lesson this Radar keeps repeating in different sectors on different days: a single day's price and the underlying trend are not always telling you the same thing, and the trend is usually the one worth trading.
Linde LIN — Closed Friday at $513.22, down $7.52, or 1.44%.
Freeport-McMoRan FCX — Closed Friday at $58.38, down $0.18, or 0.31%. Reports Wednesday, July 22 premarket.
Newmont NEM — Closed Friday at $89.70, down $1.13, or 1.24%. Reports Thursday, July 23 after close.
Sector Rotation Snapshot — Friday's Session, Ranked
Ranked by Friday's session percentage change; see the YTD Leaders & Laggards card below for the rolling year-to-date view.
Rank | Sector ETF | Fri. Close | Fri. % Chg. | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Energy (XLE) | $57.68 | +1.16% | GREEN |
2 | Real Estate (XLRE) | $45.42 | −0.09% | GREEN |
3 | Industrials (XLI) | $179.41 | −0.41% | RED |
4 | Health Care (XLV) | $161.09 | −0.44% | YELLOW |
5 | Utilities (XLU) | $45.17 | −0.66% | YELLOW |
6 | Materials (XLB) | $50.53 | −0.71% | GREEN |
7 | Consumer Staples (XLP) | $85.19 | −0.72% | GREEN |
8 | Financials (XLF) | $56.26 | −0.86% | RED |
9 | Technology (XLK) | $175.59 | −1.09% | RED |
10 | Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | $115.44 | −1.62% | RED |
11 | Communication Svcs. (XLC) | $110.65 | −1.78% | RED |
Friday's Session — Dominator Leaders & Laggards
Leaders (Fri. session) | % Chg. | Laggards (Fri. session) | % Chg. |
|---|---|---|---|
Phillips 66 (PSX) | +2.75% | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) | −14.14% |
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) | +2.21% | Netflix (NFLX) | −7.26% |
Chevron (CVX) | +1.91% | Coca-Cola (KO) | −3.96% |
Vistra (VST) | +1.89% | Meta Platforms (META) | −2.79% |
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) | +1.87% | Goldman Sachs (GS) | −2.76% |
The consensus narrative says: an eighth day of U.S.-Iran strikes with the first confirmed American casualties should mean Monday opens under serious pressure. The tape says: Wall Street's own futures were quietly higher pre-open, Friday's board held its green count at four sectors out of eleven even through a broad-based down session, and the only real damage Friday came from two identifiable, single-stock stories — Netflix's guidance miss and Intuitive Surgical's unexplained collapse — not from a market-wide flight from risk.
Companies Reporting in the Next Week
Monday, July 20 through Friday, July 24, 2026. No Power Dominators report Monday or Tuesday; the calendar opens Wednesday.
Date | Time | Company / Ticker | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
Wed. 7/22 | Premkt. | Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) | Est. EPS $0.60; copper-demand read-through for Materials. |
Wed. 7/22 | Premkt. | Philip Morris Intl. (PM) | Est. EPS $2.04. |
Wed. 7/22 | Premkt. | NextEra Energy (NEE) | Est. EPS $1.08; sector's largest Dominator. |
Wed. 7/22 | Aft. close | IBM (IBM) | Est. EPS $3.00, two weeks after IBM's 25% single-session crash. |
Wed. 7/22 | Aft. close | Tesla (TSLA) | Est. EPS $0.50; one of the week's three AI-trade headline reports. |
Wed. 7/22 | Aft. close | Alphabet (GOOGL) | Est. EPS $2.87; AI capex scrutiny front and center. |
Thu. 7/23 | Premkt. | Union Pacific (UNP) | Est. EPS $3.20. |
Thu. 7/23 | Premkt. | Honeywell Intl. (HON) | Est. EPS $1.80. |
Thu. 7/23 | Aft. close | Intel (INTC) | Est. EPS $0.21; third of the week's headline AI/chip reports. |
Thu. 7/23 | Aft. close | Newmont (NEM) | Est. EPS $2.00. |
Fri. 7/24 | Premkt. | AT&T (T) | Est. EPS $0.59. |
Fri. 7/24 | Premkt. | Verizon Communications (VZ) | Est. EPS $1.27. |
Economic Reports in the Next Week
Monday, July 20 through Friday, July 24, 2026.
Date | Time | Release | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
Mon. 7/20 | 10:00 AM ET | Conference Board LEI (June) | Prior +0.1% MoM — the week's only print before Thursday. |
Thu. 7/23 | 8:30 AM ET | Initial Jobless Claims (wk. 7/18) | Est. 212K vs. 208K prior. |
Thu. 7/23 | 8:30 AM ET | Continuing Claims (wk. 7/11) | Est. 1,809K vs. 1,805K prior. |
Fri. 7/24 | 9:45 AM ET | S&P Global Mfg. PMI Flash (July) | Est. 54.5 vs. 53.9 prior. |
Fri. 7/24 | 9:45 AM ET | S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July) | Est. 51.5 vs. 51.2 prior. |
Fri. 7/24 | 9:45 AM ET | S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July) | Est. 52.3 vs. 51.9 prior. |
Fri. 7/24 | 10:00 AM ET | New Home Sales (June) | Est. 0.61M vs. 0.58M prior. |
YTD Leaders & Laggards
Rolled forward from Issue 143's confirmed Jan. 2 baseline pull, adjusted by Friday's actual session move on each name; see Validation Data for the methodology note.
Top 5 YTD | YTD % | Bottom 3 YTD | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|
CrowdStrike (CRWD) | +79.09% | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) | −38.54% |
UnitedHealth (UNH) | +26.67% | IBM (IBM) | −27.04% |
Apple (AAPL) | +23.15% | Abbott Laboratories (ABT) | −18.93% |
Linde (LIN) | +19.60% | ||
Coca-Cola (KO) | +18.00% |
Sector-ETF YTD leader: Energy (XLE) +26.36%. Sector-ETF YTD laggard: Communication Services (XLC) −5.36%, worsening on Friday's Netflix-led session.
Final Word — A Market That Won't Panic On Schedule
Two American service members are dead, oil is back above $90 a barrel, and Wall Street's futures were higher Monday morning anyway. That is either the market correctly pricing five months of a war it has already learned to live with, or it is the market not yet pricing something it will eventually have to. We don't know which, and neither does anyone selling certainty about it on television this weekend. What we do know is that Friday's board already told the same story in miniature: a broadly red session that still held its green count steady, because the actual damage came from two specific, nameable stories — Netflix and Intuitive Surgical — and not from indiscriminate selling. This week hands the market a second, harder test: Tesla, Alphabet, and Intel all report Wednesday and Thursday, and by Thursday night we will know a great deal more about whether the AI trade can survive contact with an actual earnings tape instead of a narrative about one. A good trader has no dog in either fight. The job is to have a plan for what Wednesday's earnings say, and a separate plan for what they don't, before the closing bell picks one for you.
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Validation Data for the Pros — RIAs, Active Traders, Compliance Officers
Every directional and magnitude claim above, checked against the live tape pulled this run. All prices are Friday, July 17, 2026 cash closes unless marked Monday premarket/AM. Sector CCI(20) computed by hand from Massive Market Data's OHLC history (June 1 – July 17, 2026, 32 trading sessions) using the standard typical-price formula. Index-level S&P 500, Dow, and VIX levels are not entitled on the current Massive Market Data plan (HTTP 403); those three figures were sourced from the FMP index-quote-short endpoint instead and cross-checked against last issue's confirmed Thursday closes for internal consistency.
Macro & Index Cross-Check (Live Tape)
Indicator | Fri. Close | Chg. vs. Thu. | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,146.42 | −0.77% | Confirmed (FMP index-quote-short) |
S&P 500 | 7,457.69 | −1.01% | Confirmed (FMP index-quote-short) |
Nasdaq Composite | 25,520.24 | −1.40% | Confirmed (Massive Market Data) |
VIX | 18.25 | +9.09% | Confirmed vs. Thu. 16.73 close (FMP); FMP's own delta field did not reconcile cleanly and was recomputed manually |
10-Yr Treasury Yield | 4.55% | −2 bps | Confirmed (FMP economics feed) |
30-Yr Treasury Yield | 5.06% | −3 bps | Confirmed (FMP economics feed) |
2-Yr Treasury Yield | 4.18% | +2 bps | Confirmed (FMP economics feed) |
Crude proxy (USO) | $123.96 | +0.04% | Confirmed (Massive Market Data) |
Gold proxy (GLD) | $368.41 | −0.01% | Confirmed (Massive Market Data) |
Silver proxy (SLV) | $50.78 | −0.59% | Confirmed (Massive Market Data) |
Dollar proxy (UUP) | $28.38 | +0.11% | Confirmed (Massive Market Data) |
CPI YoY (June, most recent print) | 3.47% | — | Carried from Issue 143; no fresher print this run or scheduled this week |
Core CPI YoY (June) | 2.57% | — | Carried from Issue 143; no fresher print this run or scheduled this week |
CCI(20) Computation Detail — All 11 Sector SPDRs
ETF | Current CCI | Prior CCI | 10-Sess. Trailing Avg. | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
XLK — Technology | −187.62 | −149.04 | −76.64 | RED |
XLV — Health Care | 62.19 | 56.15 | 76.34 | YELLOW |
XLF — Financials | 90.17 | 114.69 | 130.15 | RED |
XLY — Consumer Discretionary | −26.66 | 76.57 | 20.16 | RED |
XLC — Communication Services | 50.00 | 134.78 | 70.35 | RED |
XLI — Industrials | −99.74 | −91.78 | −14.76 | RED |
XLE — Energy | 162.39 | 152.10 | 75.18 | GREEN |
XLP — Consumer Staples | 163.84 | 129.79 | 21.41 | GREEN |
XLU — Utilities | 1.42 | −1.48 | 39.93 | YELLOW |
XLB — Materials | −47.05 | −63.56 | −57.91 | GREEN |
XLRE — Real Estate | 215.52 | 185.65 | 31.40 | GREEN |
Methodology note: board tally Friday — 4 GREEN (Energy, Consumer Staples, Materials, Real Estate), 2 YELLOW (Health Care, Utilities), 5 RED (Technology, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Industrials). Thursday's board (Issue 143) read 4 GREEN / 4 YELLOW / 3 RED. Net change: headline green count held at four, but Consumer Discretionary (GREEN→RED) and Communication Services (YELLOW→RED) both deteriorated, while Utilities (RED→YELLOW) and Materials (YELLOW→GREEN) both improved — a wash at the surface, real rotation underneath.
Material Misses & Open Items
Intuitive Surgical's 14.14% single-session decline is the largest unconfirmed move in this issue. Neither the Massive Market Data feed nor this run's FMP news pull surfaced a specific company catalyst (no earnings, FDA action, or guidance news found dated July 17). Flagging as an open item rather than assigning a cause; if Monday's news flow surfaces an explanation, it will be corrected in the next issue.
YTD figures in this issue are roll-forward approximations, computed by adjusting Issue 143's confirmed Jan. 2, 2026 baseline pull by each name's actual Friday session move, not a fresh direct Jan. 2 → July 17 recomputation. A full baseline re-pull is due on the next run with capacity for it.
Index-level S&P 500, Dow, and VIX are not entitled on the current Massive Market Data plan (HTTP 403 on I:SPX, I:DJI, I:VIX); sourced from FMP's index-quote-short endpoint instead this run and cross-checked for internal consistency against last issue's confirmed Thursday closes.
Bigdata.com was not called this run per RULES §13/§7, which does not require it on the daily run; FMP's general-news feed supplied the weekend's qualitative synthesis (WSJ, CNBC, Reuters, Barron's, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha outlets named inline above).
10-Year Treasury yield tile in the Trader's Brief reflects Monday morning's live CNBC-reported print (4.558%), not Friday's official close (4.55%), since the Brief is meant as a pre-open snapshot; both figures are reported separately above to avoid conflating them.
ETF Proxy Caveat
Crude oil, gold, and silver futures contracts are not entitled on the current data plan. The Radar uses USO, GLD, and SLV ETF proxies as the live-tape stand-in.
Disclaimer. The Sector Cycle Radar is a general-circulation editorial publication and does not provide personalized investment advice. Any signals, ratings, or commentary on specific sectors, stocks, or options reflect the output of the Radar's proprietary models and are provided for informational and educational purposes only. The Radar does not know the financial circumstances of any individual subscriber. Subscribers should consult their own qualified financial advisor before making any investment decision. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Synthetic, projected, or estimated data is labeled with the [SYN] highlight or with phrasing such as "est." The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. The Sector Cycle Radar relies on the publisher's exemption from the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 (Lowe v. SEC, 472 U.S. 181 (1985)) and operates as a regular publication with impersonal content. Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors; subscribers should read the OCC's Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options document before trading any options strategy.
Sector Cycle Radar · Issue 145 · Volume III · Filed from Taintsville, Florida · July 20, 2026