THE LEAD

UPS jumped 5.75% on its beat and Caterpillar rose 3.06%, enough to outrun Boeing's 10.69% drop, and the S&P 500 fund closed back above its fifty-day line. Health Care and Consumer Staples went red, and the Fed decides at 2 p.m.

Boeing handed Wall Street the ugliest headline of Tuesday. The company reported a wider third-quarter loss than analysts expected, even with revenue of $24.19 billion coming in ahead, and two outlets say it was the cash-flow update that sank the stock. Boeing closed down 10.69% at $168.18, the worst day on our roster. One outlet reports that the company’s $10 billion cash goal now sits in 2029.

Underneath, the rest of Industrials carried the sector. UPS rose 5.75% on the day it beat, Caterpillar gained 3.06% and Union Pacific 0.98%, and the Industrials fund closed up 0.57%. Its gauge jumped from minus 85.25 to minus 14.70, above its own average, so a sector with its best-known name down double digits turned green. The chips kept climbing too: Advanced Micro Devices up 5.45%, Broadcom 4.00% and Micron 2.77%, with the chip fund up 3.02%. The refiners went the other way. Marathon Petroleum fell 7.36% and Phillips 66 fell 7.03%, and we haven’t found a source that explains why, so we won’t guess.

The market has reasons to stay twitchy. The Fed decides at 2 p.m., with one big bank’s economists arguing for a hike while Reuters and our feed expect a hold. Microsoft and Alphabet report today and Amazon tomorrow, so the AI spending bill gets read line by line. Oil slipped, our crude fund down 1.41%, and Energy was the worst fund on the board. Through all of that, thirty-seven of sixty-seven rose and the index proxy gained 0.56%.

Boeing’s drop didn’t only land on the people who picked the stock. It sits in the S&P 500, so every fund that tracks the index took its slice of Tuesday’s 10.69%, and the people who own it on purpose are now down 22.91% on the year. A cash goal pushed out a year means another year of waiting for everyone holding it.

Before our conclusion, the strongest case for the bears. The country’s best-known industrial company just told its owners the cash will take longer. Two refiners lost 7% in a day, Energy lost its green and two sectors went red. The leadership still runs through the chip stocks, and there’s a decent argument that corporate profits are growing faster than consumers can pay for. On that reading, Tuesday was a narrow rally into a Fed meeting.

We think the bears have Boeing right and the breadth wrong. Thirty-seven of sixty-seven rose, forty-four sit above trend, and the two sectors that went red are the defensive ones, Health Care and Consumer Staples. Money left the shelters and went back to work. The index proxy is back above its fifty-day. The market-risk gauge is still yellow, though, under its own average of plus 20.40, and we’d want it over that line before calling this a trend.

The best fund on the board for a second day, and still yellow. The fund gained 1.70% to $189.49, three hundredths of a percent shy of its fifty-day. The gauge climbed to minus 40.17 from minus 81.08, but its own average is minus 26.20, so it’s still on the wrong side by about 14 points.

Advanced Micro Devices rose 5.45%, Broadcom 4.00%, Oracle 3.55% and Micron 2.77%, with Apple and Nvidia up less than 1% and Microsoft off 0.24%. One outlet ties Broadcom’s move to a $63 billion chip deal. Advanced Micro Devices crossed back above its fifty-day, so three of seven now sit above trend.

Our test from Friday’s issue, the gauge back above zero by Thursday, still needs 40 points. Oracle’s holders need a 51.3% gain to get back to January and Broadcom’s 3.1%. Microsoft reports today, Apple next Monday and Advanced Micro Devices next Tuesday, per our feed. The fund is quoted up 0.54% this morning.

Tuesday’s issue flagged this as the thinnest positive cushion on the board. One bar later it’s gone. The gauge slid to plus 78.77 from plus 98.83, just under its own average of plus 81.27, and that’s red. The fund closed at $179.18, off 0.06%, and still sits 4.42% above its fifty-day.

Nothing here broke. Johnson & Johnson rose 0.91% and Gilead and Eli Lilly gained a little; UnitedHealth and AbbVie slipped and Intuitive Surgical fell 1.27%. All six still sit above trend. The red says the momentum faded. The stocks themselves are holding up.

Intuitive Surgical’s holders need a 27.1% gain to get back to January. Eli Lilly and Gilead report Thursday and AbbVie Friday, per our feed. The fund’s premarket quote is too thin to read.

A soft day and a softer gauge. The fund lost 0.25% to $55.88 and sits 0.21% under its fifty-day. The gauge eased to plus 87.28 from plus 107.06, still well above its average of plus 21.40, so it’s yellow.

Goldman Sachs rose 2.07%, JPMorgan 0.52% and Bank of America 0.32%. Visa slipped 0.57% and Mastercard 0.59% ahead of their reports, and Berkshire fell 1.02%. Visa, Mastercard and Berkshire hold above trend.

Visa reported after the close: $3.48 a share against $3.44 expected on $12.14 billion of revenue, which its release and our feed agree on. It’s quoted down 1.89% on thin trade anyway. Bank of America’s holders need an 8.6% gain to get back to January. Mastercard reports Thursday, per our feed. The fund is quoted down 0.60%.

Monday’s newest green held. The gauge rose to plus 107.02 from plus 89.88, well clear of its average of plus 61.03. The fund gained 1.04% to $115.45 and sits 1.87% above its fifty-day.

Tesla rose 4.04% and Amazon 1.61%, with Starbucks up 0.34%. Home Depot, McDonald’s and Nike slipped. Five of six sit above trend; Amazon is the one that doesn’t, though it’s closing in.

The fund is still down 3.86% on the year, tenth of eleven. Nike’s holders need a 70.4% gain to get back to January and McDonald’s 22.4%. Amazon and Starbucks report Thursday, per our feed. The fund’s premarket quote is too thin to read.

Still the weakest gauge on the board, though it’s climbing. It rose to minus 219.20 from minus 277.77, far under its average of minus 114.64. The fund lost 0.26% to $103.58, sits 6.92% under its fifty-day and is last on the year at minus 12.34%.

Verizon bounced 1.93% after Monday’s drop and Alphabet rose 1.19%, with AT&T up 0.43%. Disney slipped 0.15%, Meta fell 1.64% and Netflix 2.16%. Disney is still the only one of six above trend.

Netflix’s holders need a 50.6% gain to get back to January and AT&T’s 18.4%. Alphabet reports today, per our feed, and it’s quoted up 1.34% on real size. The fund shows no premarket trade.

The day’s strangest light. Boeing fell 10.69% after its report, and the sector went green anyway. The gauge jumped to minus 14.70 from minus 85.25, which puts it 66.93 points above its own average of minus 81.63. The fund gained 0.57% to $167.92.

UPS carried it, up 5.75% after a beat that its release and our feed agree on, with Caterpillar up 3.06% and Union Pacific 0.98%. Honeywell and Deere slipped. UPS, Union Pacific and Honeywell hold above trend; Boeing, Caterpillar and Deere don’t.

The fund is still 2.07% under its fifty-day, so this green has to prove itself; more on that in the Final Word. Boeing’s holders need a 29.7% gain to get back to January. Caterpillar reports Thursday, per our feed. The fund’s premarket quote is too wide to read.

The worst fund on the board, and the green is gone. The fund fell 2.05% to $68.21 while our crude fund slipped 1.41%. The gauge dropped to plus 82.59 from plus 109.61, still above its average of plus 75.23, so it’s yellow. The fund sits 5.58% above its fifty-day and first on the year at plus 52.52%.

The refiners took the hit: Marathon Petroleum down 7.36% and Phillips 66 down 7.03%. Exxon fell 2.51%, ConocoPhillips 2.25%, Chevron 1.63% and EOG 1.58%. All six still sit above trend, which is what a year up 52% buys you.

Our Energy test from Monday’s issue, the gauge below its own average by Friday, now has only 7.36 points of room. Phillips 66 reported this morning, and our feed has it at $14.08 a share against $11.73 expected, from one source so far. Exxon and Chevron report Friday and Marathon Petroleum next Tuesday, per our feed. The fund is quoted up 0.32% this morning.

Third soft day in a row, and now it’s red. The fund lost 0.92% to $87.15 and the gauge fell to plus 58.28 from plus 85.44, just under its own average of plus 60.96. The fund still sits 3.18% above its fifty-day.

Coca-Cola fell 1.64% on the day it beat, PepsiCo 1.45%, Costco 1.30% and Walmart 0.81%. Philip Morris rose 0.37%. PepsiCo crossed below its fifty-day, so five of six now sit above trend. One outlet reports that the big food and household brands, Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble among them, are warning of more price increases next year.

PepsiCo’s holders need a 7.3% gain to get back to January. The fund is quoted down 0.57% this morning.

The power producers did it. Vistra rose 3.48% and NRG 1.77%, and the fund gained 0.71% to $42.85. The gauge climbed to plus 115.70 from plus 111.14, far above its average of plus 53.86, and that’s green. The fund sits 2.50% above its fifty-day.

American Electric Power rose 0.84%, NextEra 0.46%, Duke 0.29% and Southern 0.09%, so all six rose. Vistra crossed back above its fifty-day, and five of six now sit above trend; NRG is the holdout.

American Electric Power reported this morning, $2.23 a share against $2.05 expected, and announced a $100 billion five-year capital plan, per its release and our feed. One outlet notes utilities have risen nearly 9% this month, and the fund is still a hair under where it opened the year. NRG’s holders need a 69.6% gain to get back to January. The fund shows no premarket trade.

Gold had a good day and Newmont rose with it, up 2.04% with the gold fund up 1.21%. Freeport-McMoRan rose 1.21%, Ecolab 0.82%, Air Products 0.45% and Linde 0.21%. Sherwin-Williams fell 2.73% on the day of its miss.

The fund gained 0.78% to $51.78, and the gauge slipped to plus 107.90 from plus 110.21. It’s still far above its average of plus 29.75, so it’s yellow. The fund sits 1.56% above its fifty-day. Sherwin-Williams crossed below its own, so three of six hold above trend.

Our feed has Freeport-McMoRan at 88 cents a share against about 82 cents and Ecolab in line at $2.18, both from one source so far. Linde reports Thursday, per our feed. The fund is quoted down 0.21% this morning.

The fund fell 0.84% to $42.44 and the gauge fell harder, to plus 86.91 from plus 134.00. It’s still far above its average of plus 7.20, the widest cushion on the board at plus 79.71, so it’s yellow. The fund sits 0.79% under its fifty-day.

Equinix rose 3.28% ahead of its report, Iron Mountain 2.00% and Public Storage 1.79%. American Tower fell 2.36% a day after an in-line quarter, and Simon Property slipped 0.19%. Iron Mountain crossed back above its fifty-day, so four of six sit above trend.

Equinix reports today, per our feed. Prologis’s holders need a 1.0% gain to get back to January. The fund shows no premarket trade.

ROTATION

Leaders and laggards in the roster. Micron leads at plus 214.70%, then Marathon Petroleum at plus 167.72%, Advanced Micro Devices at plus 155.94%, Phillips 66 at plus 108.16% and ConocoPhillips at plus 58.06%. The bottom three are Nike at minus 41.31%, NRG at minus 41.04% and Oracle at minus 33.90%. Micron’s lead over Marathon Petroleum widened to 47.0 points from 17.2 as the refiner fell.

Above and below the fifty-day. Forty-four of the sixty-seven companies close above their own fifty-day average, up from forty-three. Three crossed up: Advanced Micro Devices, Iron Mountain and Vistra. Two crossed down: PepsiCo and Sherwin-Williams. By sector: Energy six of six, Health Care six of six, Consumer Staples five of six, Consumer Discretionary five of six, Utilities five of six, Real Estate four of six, Technology three of seven, Financials three of six, Industrials three of six, Materials three of six, Communication Services one of six. Six of the eleven sector funds close above their own fifty-day: Energy, Health Care, Consumer Staples, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary and Materials. Technology sits three hundredths of a percent under. The index proxy closes 0.28% above its own, from 0.29% under.

Relative strength callouts. Micron beats its own sector fund by 185 points on the year and Advanced Micro Devices by 126, while Oracle trails it by 64. Marathon Petroleum beats Energy by 115 points and Phillips 66 by 56. Iron Mountain beats Real Estate by 34 points. The worst relative performers against their own sectors are Oracle at minus 64, NRG at minus 41, and Nike and Intuitive Surgical at minus 37 each. Boeing now trails Industrials by 31.

One line on the consensus. The easy headline for Tuesday is that Boeing had a terrible day. That’s true and it’s on the tape. Our count adds that the sector Boeing belongs to turned green on the same bar, that thirty-seven of sixty-seven rose, and that the two sectors that went red were the defensive ones.

EARNINGS CALENDAR

Eighteen roster names fall inside the next seven calendar days, plus Visa, which reported after Tuesday’s close. Visa’s and American Electric Power’s results agree across each company’s own release and our feed. Phillips 66 reported this morning, and its result comes from our feed only so far. The rest of the dates come from our feed only. We don’t assert before-the-bell or after-the-bell timing for any of them.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Tuesday’s readings mostly came in hotter than forecast. Consumer confidence printed 91.7 against 81 expected, durable goods orders rose 1.8% against 1.5%, new home sales ran at a 676,000 annual pace against 650,000, and the Case-Shiller home price index rose 2.7% on the year against 2.5%. Our feed has this morning’s thirty-year mortgage rate from the Mortgage Bankers at 7.37%, down from 7.41%. The Fed decides at 2 p.m., with Reuters and our feed expecting a hold, and Thursday brings third-quarter growth and September’s spending-price index, forecast at 3.6% on the year. Dates, times, forecasts and Tuesday’s readings come from our economic calendar feed.

LEADERS AND LAGGARDS

Every figure is measured from the January 2 opening price, for every company and every fund. The index proxy sits at plus 12.24% on the same basis, up from plus 11.62% on Monday.

Nike slipped 0.92%, and its holders now need a 70.4% gain to get back to January. NRG’s need is 69.6% and Oracle’s 51.3%, even after Oracle rose 3.55%. Boeing isn’t in the bottom three, but at minus 22.91% its holders need 29.7%. At the top, Micron pulled 47.0 points clear of Marathon Petroleum. None of these is a recommendation and none is a forecast.

FINAL WORD

The board starts Wednesday with three green, six yellow and two red. Five lights changed on one bar, and the two that went red were Health Care and Consumer Staples, the sectors that usually hold up when everything else is falling. The Fed at 2 p.m. and the Microsoft and Alphabet reports will test that by tomorrow morning.

A word on that new Industrials green. The fund is still 2.07% under its own fifty-day average. A green on a fund that’s under its trend line tells us the momentum turned. It doesn’t tell us the trend did, and until the fund climbs back over that line we treat the green as a bounce that still has to show it can last.

The new test: if the index proxy closes back under its fifty-day average on any completed session through Friday the thirtieth, Tuesday’s cross was a visit and not a move, and we’ll say so here in those words. Monday’s Energy test, the gauge below its own average by Friday, now has 7.36 points of room. Boeing against the Industrials fund is one ratio chart in the Sector Risk tab on the Golden Terminal.

Eighteen roster names report inside the next seven calendar days, from American Electric Power and Phillips 66 this morning through Advanced Micro Devices and Marathon Petroleum next Tuesday. Our desk keeps a separate counter on these names ahead of each print, and nothing in it has fired for this group.

FOR THE PROS

Every figure in this issue, checked against the market data it came from. Prices are Tuesday’s completed daily bars, Treasury yields come from the Treasury’s own daily curve, and where two sources disagree we show both and say which one the body follows.

The Daily Update is published by Golden Cycles Research for informational and educational purposes only. It isn’t personalized advice and it isn’t a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Figures come from third-party data providers and government releases and can be revised. Past performance doesn’t predict future results.

The Daily Update · Golden Terminal · Vol. III, No. 224 · Wednesday, October 28, 2026