Vol. III · No. 155 · Friday, July 31, 2026
The Daily Update
Golden Terminal
Microsoft's Blowout Pulled The Market Green. Most Stocks Still Went Down.
Trader's Brief: Thursday's Close, and the Narrowest Rally of the Week
S&P 500 (SPY) | $741.69 +1.68% |
Nasdaq Comp. | 25,122.18 +2.78% |
10-Yr Yield | 4.68% +1 bp |
VIX (VXX) | $21.82 -6.83% |
Crude (USO) | $127.48 -1.42% |
Overnight drift: S&P 500 September futures (ESU6, a proxy) sit near 7,503, up about 0.4% from Thursday's settle, and the SPY ETF is a shade firmer pre-dawn. The mega-cap split flipped overnight: Amazon is indicated up about 11% on a blowout report, while Apple is down about 7% on a miss, both after Thursday's close. Drift shows where the tape has already traveled overnight; by rule it never changes a completed-bar momentum verdict.
The AI trade came roaring back. Microsoft's blowout printed in full Thursday, sending the stock up 15.51%, its biggest single-day gain in years. Advanced Micro Devices climbed another 13% into next week's report, the Nasdaq jumped 2.78% and the S&P 500 rose 1.68%. The echo was global: South Korea's Kospi logged its best day on record as chipmakers surged.
But the rally was as narrow as they come. Two names did most of the lifting. Seven of the eleven sector momentum verdicts on our board are still red, and the two that turned green, Technology and Consumer Discretionary, did so only because their gauges bounced off deeply oversold lows. Underneath the green screen, the defensives were dumped: Consumer Staples fell 2.16%, Health Care 1.64%, and Communication Services 2.68% as Meta cratered on its miss.
The data cut both ways, and the market picked the half it liked. The June core-PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, came in cool at 0.1% for the month against a 0.2% estimate. But advance second-quarter GDP growth missed at 1.5%, and the GDP price index ran hot at 6.3% against a 3.6% estimate. Stocks took the soft monthly inflation print and ran; the bond market read the rest.
The long bond would not come down. The 30-year Treasury yield held at 5.20% to 5.21%, still near a 19-year high, one day after the Fed's hawkish hold. As one wire put it, Kevin Warsh's honeymoon with the bond market is already over. Our market-risk light did upgrade from red to yellow on the bounce, but yellow is not an all-clear.
And the earnings run does not stop. Amazon reported a blowout after Thursday's close and is indicated up about 11%; Apple missed and is down about 7%. This morning the oil majors Exxon and Chevron report premarket, alongside Linde and AbbVie, and the Employment Cost Index and Chicago PMI land at 8:30 and 9:45am ET. The month ends with the tape asking one question: is the AI leadership real, or is it two stocks carrying a market that mostly wants to fall?
Microsoft's Blowout Pulled The Market Green. Most Stocks Still Went Down.
The Nasdaq jumped 2.8% as Microsoft and the chips came roaring back. But seven of eleven sector momentum verdicts are still red, the defensive trade got sold, and the long bond will not come down.
Dear reader, the brass barometer bolted to the wall behind the counter at the Taintsville hardware store read "Fair" on Thursday afternoon, and for once the needle was not lying. The market closed green. What the barometer cannot tell you, hanging there on its nail with no opinion about breadth, is that two names were holding the glass up with their bare hands. Microsoft blew past its number and rose 15.51%, its best day in years. Advanced Micro Devices tacked on another 13% ahead of its own report next week. Between them they dragged the Nasdaq up 2.78% and the S&P 500 up 1.68%, and the Korean stock market logged its single best session on record chasing the same trade. From across the room, the screen looked like a rally.
Walk closer and the picture changes. Seven of the eleven sector momentum verdicts on our board finished red. The two that turned green, Technology and Consumer Discretionary, earned the color on a technicality we flagged all week: their momentum gauges climbed off washed-out lows, so the math says green even though the readings are still deeply negative. Green by the arithmetic, not by the mood. Meanwhile the parts of the market people actually own for safety were being sold. Consumer Staples fell 2.16%, with Altria down 9.32% on its own report. Health Care fell 1.64%. Communication Services fell 2.68% as Meta confirmed its miss and dropped nearly 8%. This was not a market rising. It was a market rotating hard back into two winners and out of nearly everything else.
The economic data handed everyone a choice, and the stock market and the bond market chose opposite halves of it. The June core-PCE price index, the inflation gauge the Fed watches most, came in cool at 0.1% for the month, below the 0.2% forecast and down from 0.3%. That is the number equities grabbed. But the advance reading on second-quarter growth missed at 1.5% against a 2.1% estimate, and the GDP price index, the broadest inflation gauge in the report, ran hot at 6.3% against 3.6%. Soft growth and a hot price deflator is not the recipe anyone wants, and the bond market noticed: the 30-year Treasury yield stayed pinned near 5.21%, a hair off the 19-year high it hit Wednesday, the day after a Fed that did nothing and made doing nothing sound like a threat.
So this is the tape that closes out July. A market that decided Wednesday it did not trust the Federal Reserve, and decided Thursday it absolutely trusts Microsoft. The indexes are green, the volatility gauge got crushed, and money is flowing back into technology funds on the bet that the AI advance has further to run. But the long bond is telling a different story than the Nasdaq, the breadth under the surface is ugly, and the mega-cap earnings keep splitting the tape in two: Amazon blew out after Thursday's close and is indicated up about 11% this morning, while Apple missed and is down about 7%. A green screen held up by two hands is still a green screen. The question for the first trading day of August is whether anyone else grabs hold, or whether the hands get tired.
Brad Hoppmann
Filed from Taintsville, Florida · Pop. < 1,000 · 'Taint in the Beltway, 'taint in any backwards corrupt city: just a Florida man with a sharp pencil and a long memory of expensive lessons.
What to Watch: Data, Oil Majors, and the Jobs Report Ahead
The morning brings the oil majors, Exxon and Chevron, reporting premarket alongside Linde and AbbVie, plus the second-quarter Employment Cost Index at 8:30am ET and Chicago PMI at 9:45am. Monday adds ISM Manufacturing PMI and Booking Holdings after the close. Then the calendar gets heavy: Tuesday brings a wall of reports, with AMD, Caterpillar, Pfizer, Duke Energy, McDonald's, Merck and EOG, and Wednesday brings Disney and Eli Lilly. Looming over all of it is next Friday's jobs report, the first read on the labor market since the Fed's hawkish hold. The question the tape leaves for August is simple: does the market's leadership broaden out beyond Microsoft and the chips, or does a hot GDP deflator and a 19-year-high long bond finally pull the two winners back to the pack.
"A green screen held up by two hands is still a green screen. The question is whether anyone else grabs hold, or whether the hands get tired."
Early Earnings Update: 14 roster names report over the next seven sessions, starting with both oil majors and Linde this morning. The market-risk momentum light upgraded from red to yellow on Thursday's tech-led bounce, and that single move broke both of this week's three-red downside configurations. No reporter goes in with a held two-session alignment, and none is even forming today. Full breakdown continues in the members' section.
The Reader, Investor & Active Trader Tiers
Sector Cycle Radar
The full sector-by-sector breakdown, rotation snapshot, and validation data continue below.
GREEN
Technology: Microsoft Ripped, the Chips Ripped, and the Software Names Gave It Back
CCI(20) Verdict: GREEN, as of Thursday's close
XLK closed Thursday at $175.73 (+5.50%). Current CCI -76.16 vs. prior session -195.77, vs. trailing average -128.11. Current reading tops both prior and average, so the verdict upgrades from RED to GREEN. Note the honest caveat: the reading is still negative, and the upgrade reflects a momentum gauge snapping up off a deeply oversold low, not a sector at full strength. Green by the math, and this time the math had Microsoft behind it.
GREEN as of Thursday's close. Premarket +0.82%, extending the bounce, though the after-close prints split: Apple down about 7% on a miss.
Technology jumped 5.50% Thursday and flipped straight from red to green, the single biggest sector move on the board. The engine was Microsoft, which blew out its report and rose 15.51%, its best day in years, and Advanced Micro Devices, up another 13% into its own report next week. Broadcom added 4.73%, Texas Instruments 2.75% and Nvidia 2.65%. The mirror image of Wednesday ran on the software side, where the names that had led the tape all week gave it back: Intuit fell 5.29%, Adobe 5.90% and Salesforce 4.07%. Oracle bounced 8.34% even as a Times investigation into its debt-fueled AI buildout hit the wire. Apple eased 1.41% into its after-close report, then missed, and is indicated down about 7% pre-dawn. A green verdict carried by the two biggest chips-and-cloud names, with everything around them mixed.
Microsoft (MSFT) +15.51%, the day's best Dominator and the reason the board turned green.
AMD +13.0%, the year's runaway leader at +122% YTD; reports Tuesday, 8/4, est. $1.61.
Oracle (ORCL) +8.34%, bouncing hard off a deep hole; still -35% YTD.
Broadcom (AVGO) +4.73%
Texas Instruments (TXN) +2.75%
Nvidia (NVDA) +2.65%
Cisco (CSCO) +0.96%
Apple (AAPL) -1.41%, reported after the close and missed; indicated down about 7% pre-dawn.
IBM -2.08%
Qualcomm (QCOM) -2.62%
Salesforce (CRM) -4.07%
Intuit (INTU) -5.29%, handing back part of its week-long run.
Adobe (ADBE) -5.90%, the sector's worst mover Thursday.
GREEN
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon Leads Into Its Blowout, Tesla Bounces
CCI(20) Verdict: GREEN, as of Thursday's close
XLY closed Thursday at $112.39 (+0.70%). Current CCI -73.29 vs. prior session -83.76, vs. trailing average -111.79. Current reading tops both prior and average, so the verdict holds GREEN for a second session. Same caveat as Technology: the reading is still negative, and the color reflects momentum grinding higher off a washed-out low rather than a strong sector.
GREEN as of Thursday's close. Amazon indicated up about 11% pre-dawn on its blowout, though that trade lands after the completed-bar verdict and does not change it.
Consumer Discretionary rose 0.70% Thursday and held its green verdict, the calmest green on a jumpy board. Amazon led the Dominators at +3.90% into its after-close report, and that report was a blowout: the stock is indicated up about 11% pre-dawn. Tesla bounced 3.53% and Starbucks added 1.64% after its beat this week. The retailers were the drag, with Booking Holdings off 4.00% ahead of Monday's report, Lowe's down 2.60%, Nike 2.15% and Home Depot 1.45%. A green verdict that, for once this week, had a genuine earnings winner sitting behind it.
Amazon (AMZN) +3.90% Thursday; reported after the close, blew it out, indicated up about 11% pre-dawn.
Booking Holdings (BKNG) -4.00%, the sector's worst mover; reports Monday, 8/3, est. $2.43.
Tesla (TSLA) +3.53%, best non-Amazon mover Thursday.
Starbucks (SBUX) +1.64%
Home Depot (HD) -1.45%
McDonald's (MCD) -1.13%, reports 8/4, est. $3.34.
TJX -1.47%
Nike (NKE) -2.15%
Lowe's (LOW) -2.60%
YELLOW
Financials: The Banks Take Back Wednesday's Losses
CCI(20) Verdict: YELLOW, as of Thursday's close
XLF closed Thursday at $57.00 (+0.56%). Current CCI +87.54 vs. prior session +119.29, vs. trailing average +85.89. Current reading tops the average but slips under the prior session; mixed signal, verdict holds YELLOW.
YELLOW as of Thursday's close. Premarket quiet, no clean pre-dawn print at the pull time.
Financials edged up 0.56% Thursday and held yellow, with the banks and brokers clawing back the drubbing they took on Fed day. Goldman Sachs, Wednesday's worst decliner, led the rebound at +4.50%, Citigroup added 4.08% and Morgan Stanley 3.41%. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Bank of America all finished higher. Mastercard, which reported Thursday, firmed 2.49%. When a bear steepener stops getting worse for a day, the rate-sensitive lenders are the first to catch a bid, and Thursday they did, though a single session up does not undo the week.
Goldman Sachs (GS) +4.50%, the sector's best mover, reversing Wednesday's 5% drop.
Mastercard (MA) +2.49%, held its gain after reporting Thursday.
Citigroup (C) +4.08%
Morgan Stanley (MS) +3.41%
American Express (AXP) +1.82%
JPMorgan (JPM) +1.78%
BlackRock (BLK) +1.78%
Bank of America (BAC) +1.08%
Visa (V) -0.67%
S&P Global (SPGI) -1.11%
YELLOW
Materials: A Thin Sector Waits on Linde's Report
CCI(20) Verdict: YELLOW, as of Thursday's close
XLB closed Thursday at $51.64 (-0.19%). Current CCI +90.53 vs. prior session +112.71, vs. trailing average -2.62. Current reading tops the average but slips under the prior session; mixed signal, verdict holds YELLOW.
YELLOW as of Thursday's close. Premarket quiet, no clean pre-dawn print at the pull time.
Materials slipped 0.19% Thursday and held yellow, a thin three-name sector marking time. Sherwin-Williams edged up 0.28% and Ecolab fell 1.54%, while Linde eased 0.49% into its Friday premarket report. Two of the sector's three names have already delivered their numbers; Linde is the last, and it reports this morning. Until then, the group swings on whichever name last touched the tape.
Linde (LIN) -0.49% Thursday; reports Friday premarket, est. $4.49.
Sherwin-Williams (SHW) +0.28%, the sector's best mover Thursday.
Ecolab (ECL) -1.54%
RED
Industrials: An Up Day That the Momentum Read Still Calls Red
CCI(20) Verdict: RED, as of Thursday's close
XLI closed Thursday at $178.39 (+0.98%). Current CCI -126.82 vs. prior session -126.24, vs. trailing average -50.02. Current reading trails both prior and average, so the verdict holds RED, barely, even on an up session.
RED as of Thursday's close. Premarket quiet, no clean pre-dawn print at the pull time.
Industrials rose 0.98% Thursday, yet the momentum verdict stayed red, a clean example of why the light is a completed-bar calculation and not a same-day scoreboard. Caterpillar, Wednesday's worst Dominator, rebounded 3.38% ahead of its report next week, and Boeing added 3.22%. But the gauge is still digesting Wednesday's 3.19% sector collapse, so a single green session leaves the CCI a hair below its prior reading and below its average. Red today, but the kind of red that a second up day would flip.
Caterpillar (CAT) +3.38%, bouncing off Wednesday's 6.91% drop; reports Tuesday, 8/4, est. $6.22.
Boeing (BA) +3.22%, the sector's second-best mover.
GE +1.26%
Lockheed Martin (LMT) +0.86%
Honeywell (HON) +0.33%
RTX (RTX) -0.40%
Union Pacific (UNP) -0.93%
Deere (DE) -1.88%, the sector's worst mover Thursday.
RED
CCI(20) Verdict: RED, as of Thursday's close
XLE closed Thursday at $58.96 (+0.53%). Current CCI +68.17 vs. prior session +77.45, vs. trailing average +123.76. Current reading trails both prior and average, so the verdict eases from YELLOW to RED even on a slightly higher session.
RED as of Thursday's close. Exxon premarket -1.7% ahead of its report; Chevron premarket +1.1%. Crude eased, but the war premium stayed in the tape.
Energy inched up 0.53% Thursday, but its momentum verdict slipped from yellow to red as Wednesday's war-spike began to fade. The USO crude proxy fell 1.42% on the session even as the Middle East story stayed live: China raised its retail fuel price caps and Abu Dhabi's ADNOC bought five supertankers as the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz crisis reshapes the oil trade. ConocoPhillips led the Dominators at +0.82%, Chevron added 0.23% and Exxon 0.14%, both majors reporting Friday premarket. EOG eased 0.29% ahead of its own report next week. A red verdict that reflects a spike cooling off, not a sector breaking down, three names into a busy energy reporting stretch.
Exxon (XOM) +0.14% Thursday; reports Friday premarket, est. $3.68; premarket -1.7%.
Chevron (CVX) +0.23% Thursday; reports Friday premarket, est. $5.55; premarket +1.1%.
ConocoPhillips (COP) +0.82%, the sector's best mover Thursday.
EOG Resources (EOG) -0.29%, reports 8/4, est. $5.00.
Schlumberger (SLB) -0.10%
RED
Communication Services: Meta's Miss Drags the Whole Group to Red
CCI(20) Verdict: RED, as of Thursday's close
XLC closed Thursday at $106.58 (-2.68%). Current CCI -161.70 vs. prior session -17.12, vs. trailing average -18.25. Current reading trails both prior and average by a wide margin, so the verdict falls from YELLOW to RED, the sharpest single-session momentum drop on the board.
RED as of Thursday's close. Premarket quiet, no clean pre-dawn print at the pull time.
Communication Services was the worst sector on the board Thursday, down 2.68%, and its momentum verdict fell hard from yellow to red. The whole move was Meta, which confirmed its after-close miss and dropped 7.95%, the second-worst Dominator on the day. The damage spread from there: AT&T fell 3.05%, Comcast 3.82% and Verizon 2.35%, while Netflix and Alphabet slipped modestly. Disney, which reports next week, eased 2.36%. When the sector's heaviest weight air-pockets on earnings, the momentum read has nowhere to go but down.
Meta (META) -7.95%, confirming its earnings miss and dragging the sector red.
Disney (DIS) -2.36%, reports Wednesday, 8/5, est. $1.88.
Alphabet (GOOGL) -0.91%
Netflix (NFLX) -0.62%
Verizon (VZ) -2.35%
AT&T (T) -3.05%
Comcast (CMCSA) -3.82%, the sector's worst mover after Meta.
RED
Health Care: The Defensive Bid Unwinds and the Verdict Breaks
CCI(20) Verdict: RED, as of Thursday's close
XLV closed Thursday at $163.52 (-1.64%). Current CCI +42.47 vs. prior session +181.91, vs. trailing average +71.64. Current reading trails both prior and average, so the verdict falls from YELLOW to RED as the week's defensive bid unwinds.
RED as of Thursday's close. Premarket quiet, no clean pre-dawn print at the pull time.
Health Care fell 1.64% Thursday and dropped from yellow to red, giving back the leadership it carried into midweek as money rotated out of defensives and back into tech. Bristol-Myers, which reported Thursday with a beat and a raised full-year forecast, bucked the group at +2.79%, but the rest leaned lower: Eli Lilly fell 4.55% ahead of its report next week, Johnson & Johnson 3.66%, AbbVie 2.24% into its Friday report and Abbott 2.21%. Five of the sector's names report over the coming week. A red verdict driven less by any single stock than by the whole defensive trade coming off at once.
AbbVie (ABBV) -2.24% Thursday; reports Friday premarket, est. $3.60.
Eli Lilly (LLY) -4.55%, the sector's worst mover; reports Wednesday, 8/5, est. $6.06.
Bristol-Myers (BMY) +2.79%, held its gain after Thursday's beat and raised outlook.
UnitedHealth (UNH) +0.21%
Thermo Fisher (TMO) +0.05%
Danaher (DHR) -0.16%
Merck (MRK) -0.44%, reports 8/4, est. -$0.26.
Pfizer (PFE) -0.95%, reports 8/4, est. $0.68.
Abbott (ABT) -2.21%
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) -3.66%
RED
Consumer Staples: The Safety Trade Gets Sold, Altria Craters
CCI(20) Verdict: RED, as of Thursday's close
XLP closed Thursday at $85.47 (-2.16%). Current CCI +59.23 vs. prior session +194.55, vs. trailing average +75.77. Current reading trails both prior and average, so the verdict falls from YELLOW to RED as the defensive bid unwinds.
RED as of Thursday's close. Premarket quiet, no clean pre-dawn print at the pull time.
Consumer Staples fell 2.16% Thursday and dropped from yellow to red, the flip side of the tech rally as the risk-on money that fled into staples all week came back out. Altria was the worst Dominator on the entire board, off 9.32% on its own report. Philip Morris fell 3.25%, Walmart 2.73%, Pepsi 2.30% and Costco 2.04%. Even Coca-Cola, which beat this week, slipped 0.66%. A red verdict that is not about the group's fundamentals but about where the market wanted its money on a day the chips were running.
Altria (MO) -9.32%, the worst Dominator on the board Thursday, on its earnings report.
Coca-Cola (KO) -0.66%, the steadiest name in a sold-off sector.
Costco (COST) -2.04%
Pepsi (PEP) -2.30%
Walmart (WMT) -2.73%
Philip Morris (PM) -3.25%, the sector's worst mover after Altria.
RED
Utilities: The 19-Year-High Long Bond Keeps the Power Names Red
CCI(20) Verdict: RED, as of Thursday's close
XLU closed Thursday at $44.66 (-0.56%). Current CCI -171.69 vs. prior session -87.16, vs. trailing average +15.13. Current reading trails both prior and average, so the verdict holds RED and deepens as long rates stay elevated.
RED as of Thursday's close. Premarket quiet, no clean pre-dawn print at the pull time.
Utilities fell 0.56% Thursday and held red, deepening as the 30-year yield stayed pinned near a 19-year high. All three Dominators finished lower: Duke Energy fell 2.18% ahead of its report next week, Southern Company 1.78% after its own Thursday print, and NextEra 0.60%. The AI-era power-demand story this letter keeps returning to is intact on the fundamentals. It is the momentum that a two-decade-high long bond keeps holding under water.
Duke Energy (DUK) -2.18%, the sector's worst mover; reports 8/4, est. $1.30.
Southern Company (SO) -1.78%, reported Thursday.
NextEra Energy (NEE) -0.60%
RED
Real Estate: Rate Pressure Holds the Sector Under
CCI(20) Verdict: RED, as of Thursday's close
XLRE closed Thursday at $45.30 (-1.44%). Current CCI +49.94 vs. prior session +125.49, vs. trailing average +138.63. Current reading trails both prior and average, so the verdict holds RED for a second session under the pressure of the high long bond.
RED as of Thursday's close. Premarket quiet, no clean pre-dawn print at the pull time.
Real Estate fell 1.44% Thursday and held red, the most rate-sensitive sector on the board still paying for the 30-year yield's spike to a 19-year high. American Tower led the Dominators lower at -2.68%, giving back part of its post-earnings pop, while Equinix bounced 3.92% after its own recent beat and Prologis edged up 0.49%. A red verdict driven by the rate backdrop rather than the sector's own news.
American Tower (AMT) -2.68%, the sector's worst mover, fading its post-earnings gain.
Equinix (EQIX) +3.92%, the day's rebound leader in the group.
Prologis (PLD) +0.49%
Sector Rotation Snapshot: Ranked by Thursday's Session
Rank | Sector | ETF | Session % | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Technology | XLK | +5.50% | GREEN |
2 | Industrials | XLI | +0.98% | RED |
3 | Consumer Discretionary | XLY | +0.70% | GREEN |
4 | Financials | XLF | +0.56% | YELLOW |
5 | Energy | XLE | +0.53% | RED |
6 | Materials | XLB | -0.19% | YELLOW |
7 | Utilities | XLU | -0.56% | RED |
8 | Real Estate | XLRE | -1.44% | RED |
9 | Health Care | XLV | -1.64% | RED |
10 | Consumer Staples | XLP | -2.16% | RED |
11 | Communication Services | XLC | -2.68% | RED |
Dominator Leaders, Thursday | Dominator Laggards, Thursday | ||
|---|---|---|---|
Microsoft (MSFT) | +15.51% | Altria (MO) | -9.32% |
AMD | +13.0% | Meta (META) | -7.95% |
Oracle (ORCL) | +8.34% | Adobe (ADBE) | -5.90% |
The board went from 1 GREEN / 6 YELLOW / 4 RED Wednesday to 2 GREEN / 2 YELLOW / 7 RED Thursday, and the market-risk light upgraded from red to yellow. Do not mistake that for an all-clear. The two green sectors, Technology and Consumer Discretionary, are green only because their momentum gauges turned up off oversold lows, and the numbers behind those greens are still negative. Look at the ranking: the sector that rose the most and the sector that fell the least are on opposite sides of the verdict column, because momentum measures the slope, not the day. The honest read is a market with two enormous winners and a wide, sold-off middle, one day after it stopped believing the Fed. Microsoft it believes. The other 498 names it is still arguing about.
Companies Reporting in the Next Week
Date | Company | Timing | Est. EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
Fri 7/31 | Exxon, Chevron, Linde, AbbVie | Premarket | $3.68 / $5.55 / $4.49 / $3.60 |
Mon 8/3 | Booking Holdings (BKNG) | After close | $2.43 |
Tue 8/4 | AMD, Caterpillar, Pfizer, Duke Energy, McDonald's, Merck, EOG | Various | n/a |
Wed 8/5 | Disney, Eli Lilly | Various | $1.88 / $6.06 |
Economic Reports in the Next Week
Date | Report | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|
Fri 7/31 | Employment Cost Index (Q2) | 8:30am |
Fri 7/31 | Chicago PMI (Jul) | 9:45am |
Mon 8/3 | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 10:00am |
Fri 8/7 | Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate (Jul) | 8:30am |
YTD Leaders & Laggards
Top 5 YTD | Bottom 5 YTD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
AMD | +121.7% | Intuit (INTU) | -52.2% |
Texas Instruments (TXN) | +59.3% | Oracle (ORCL) | -35.4% |
Cisco (CSCO) | +48.2% | Nike (NKE) | -33.9% |
Caterpillar (CAT) | +40.1% | Tesla (TSLA) | -32.5% |
EOG Resources (EOG) | +38.6% | Salesforce (CRM) | -31.8% |
Thursday's monster tech day widened the gap at both ends. AMD jumped another 13% and stretched its year-to-date lead to +122%, the runaway top name of 2026. But the bottom of the list stayed put: Intuit fell 5.29% and sits dead last at -52%, and Salesforce dropped 4.07% and still trails the field, both giving back the software bounce they built earlier in the week. Oracle, down 35% on the year, popped 8.34% on the session even as a Times investigation questioned the debt behind its AI buildout. The leaders and the laggards are moving further apart, not closer together.
Final Word From Taintsville: A Green Screen With Two Names Holding It Up
The market spent Wednesday deciding it did not trust the Federal Reserve, and spent Thursday deciding it absolutely trusts Microsoft. Both can be true at once, and that is exactly the problem. The indexes closed green, the volatility gauge got crushed, and the money that had hidden in staples and health care all week came sprinting back into the chips. Yet the 30-year Treasury yield would not budge off its 19-year high, and seven of our eleven sector momentum verdicts finished red. On the framework of liquidity analyst Michael Howell, a tape like this is less about the two winners on the screen than about the plumbing beneath it: whether a long bond stuck near a two-decade high, against the refinancing wall he tracks at roughly $33 trillion of global debt rolling over this year, leaves room to keep funding a rally that only two names are carrying. That is his projection, not ours, and worth naming as such. But the question it frames is the right one for the last day of July. A market that will believe a blowout from Microsoft but not a word from its central bank is a market running on narrow faith. The needle on the hardware-store barometer says Fair. The long bond, and the 498 stocks that fell while two rose, are quietly betting on rain.
The Taintsville Dispatch
Old Merle down at the hardware store keeps two barometers on the wall, the brass one for customers and a dented tin one he actually trusts. The brass one read Fair on Thursday. When I asked about the tin one, he tapped it, watched the needle sit dead still, and said the trouble with a fair reading is you never know if the whole sky is clear or just the patch right over your own roof. Then he sold a man a generator. Merle has never heard of market breadth, and he understands it better than most of Wall Street.
ALSO FROM GOLDEN CYCLES RESEARCH
The Daily Dashboard: the free commodity supercycle tracker
Same CCI trend read this letter runs on the eleven stock sectors, applied to gold, silver, oil, copper and the dollar: the hard-asset supercycle underneath the tape.
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Validation Data for the Pros: RIAs, Active Traders, Compliance Officers
Momentum Board Tally: Thursday, July 30, 2026
2 GREEN (Technology, Consumer Discretionary) · 2 YELLOW (Financials, Materials) · 7 RED (Industrials, Energy, Communication Services, Health Care, Consumer Staples, Utilities, Real Estate). Market-risk light: YELLOW (upgraded from RED). Wednesday's board: 1 GREEN / 6 YELLOW / 4 RED, market-risk light RED. Net Wednesday-to-Thursday change: Technology upgraded from red to green (mechanical, a momentum turn off an oversold low, carried by Microsoft's blowout) and Consumer Discretionary held green; Financials and Materials eased from yellow but held yellow; Energy, Communication Services, Health Care and Consumer Staples all fell from yellow to red; Industrials, Utilities and Real Estate held red. The market-risk light upgraded from red to yellow after three sessions red.
Macro / Index Cross-Check
Metric | Thu 7/30 | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
S&P 500 (SPY proxy) | $741.69 | +1.68% | Massive Market Data (ETF proxy) |
Nasdaq Composite | 25,122.18 | +2.78% | Massive Market Data (entitled index, I:COMP) |
VIX (VXX proxy) | $21.82 | -6.83% | Massive Market Data (ETF proxy) |
10-Yr Treasury | 4.68% | +1 bp | FMP economics (treasury-rates) |
30-Yr Treasury | 5.21% | +1 bp (near 19-yr high) | FMP economics (treasury-rates) |
2-Yr Treasury | 4.23% | +1 bp | FMP economics (treasury-rates) |
Crude (USO) | $127.48 | -1.42% | Massive Market Data (ETF proxy) |
Gold (GLD) | $377.16 | +1.64% | Massive Market Data (ETF proxy) |
Silver (SLV) | $53.50 | +3.34% | Massive Market Data (ETF proxy) |
Dollar (UUP) | $28.14 | -0.99% | Massive Market Data (ETF proxy) |
Key Data Prints, Thursday 7/30 (8:30am ET)
Release | Actual | Estimate | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
Core PCE Price Index MoM (Jun) | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
Core PCE Price Index YoY (Jun) | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% |
GDP Growth Rate QoQ, adv. (Q2) | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
GDP Price Index QoQ (Q2) | 6.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
Cool monthly core inflation, a soft growth reading, and a hot quarterly price deflator all in the same 8:30am release. Equities led with the cool core-PCE and rallied; the bond market held the long end near a 19-year high, consistent with the hot GDP deflator. Actuals from Financial Modeling Prep economics-calendar (US country records, dated 7/30).
CCI(20) Computation Detail: All 11 Sector SPDRs (+ SPY market light)
ETF | Close | Sess. % | Current CCI | Prior CCI | Trailing Avg CCI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XLK | $175.73 | +5.50% | -76.16 | -195.77 | -128.11 | GREEN |
XLY | $112.39 | +0.70% | -73.29 | -83.76 | -111.79 | GREEN |
XLF | $57.00 | +0.56% | +87.54 | +119.29 | +85.89 | YELLOW |
XLB | $51.64 | -0.19% | +90.53 | +112.71 | -2.62 | YELLOW |
XLI | $178.39 | +0.98% | -126.82 | -126.24 | -50.02 | RED |
XLE | $58.96 | +0.53% | +68.17 | +77.45 | +123.76 | RED |
XLC | $106.58 | -2.68% | -161.70 | -17.12 | -18.25 | RED |
XLV | $163.52 | -1.64% | +42.47 | +181.91 | +71.64 | RED |
XLP | $85.47 | -2.16% | +59.23 | +194.55 | +75.77 | RED |
XLU | $44.66 | -0.56% | -171.69 | -87.16 | +15.13 | RED |
XLRE | $45.30 | -1.44% | +49.94 | +125.49 | +138.63 | RED |
SPY | $741.69 | +1.68% | -85.52 | -185.86 | -46.01 | YELLOW |
Methodology: CCI(20) computed from daily OHLC (May 1 to July 30, 2026, 62 completed bars per instrument) via Massive Market Data aggregates. TP=(H+L+C)/3; SMA(TP,20); mean deviation = average absolute deviation of TP from the 20-session SMA; CCI=(TP minus SMA)/(0.015 times mean deviation). Trailing average computed over the 10 CCI readings immediately preceding the current session. Verdict: GREEN if current CCI is above both prior and trailing average; RED if below both; otherwise YELLOW. Method validated against the 2026-07-29 board: every sector's prior-session CCI above reproduces the prior issue's current-session value exactly (SPY -185.86, XLK -195.77, XLV +181.91, XLP +194.55, and so on across all twelve) before use.
Overnight Drift Overlay: Friday, July 31, 2026 (pre-dawn)
Instrument | Reference | Premarket | Drift % | vs. Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
S&P 500 futures (ESU6) | Thu settle 7,472.50 | ~7,503.00 | +0.40% | index proxy |
SPY (premarket) | Thu close $741.69 | ~$745.70 | +0.54% | market light YELLOW, drifting up |
XLK (premarket) | Thu close $175.73 | ~$177.17 | +0.82% | GREEN, extending |
AMZN (premarket) | Thu close $235.50 | ~$261.50 | +11.0% | earnings beat (after Thu close) |
AAPL (premarket) | Thu close $333.43 | ~$308.90 | -7.4% | earnings miss (after Thu close) |
XOM (premarket) | Thu close $156.97 | ~$154.25 | -1.7% | reports Fri BMO |
CVX (premarket) | Thu close $192.31 | ~$194.39 | +1.1% | reports Fri BMO |
Drift is a description of what the overnight tape has already done; it is never a forecast and never feeds a CCI calculation. Futures use the front-month E-mini S&P contract (ESU6) versus its Thursday session settlement of 7,472.50; ETF and single-name premarket figures are the last completed one-minute bar before the roughly 7:12am pull versus the prior session's close. The mega-cap after-close prints run in both directions, Amazon up about 11% and Apple down about 7%, so the tech complex opens split again, the mirror of Thursday's Microsoft-up, Meta-down open. Per-sector premarket for the remaining groups had no clean pre-dawn print at the pull time and is omitted.
Material Misses & Open Items
Technology and Consumer Discretionary print GREEN verdicts on still-negative CCI readings (XLK -76.16, XLY -73.29); the color reflects a momentum turn off an oversold low, not sector strength, and the copy flags this explicitly in both sections and the rotation snark. Industrials rose 0.98% on the session yet holds a RED verdict, because current CCI (-126.82) sits a hair below prior (-126.24) and well below the average; this is correct behavior for a completed-bar momentum measure and is noted in the section. The USO crude proxy fell 1.42% while the broad-commodity ETF (DBC -0.34%) and Energy equities (XLE +0.53%) diverged; the Energy narrative is anchored on the sector equity tape and the CCI verdict, with USO reported as the standing proxy. Treasury yields sourced from Financial Modeling Prep's treasury-rates endpoint (current through 7/30). Nasdaq Composite pulled from Massive I:COMP daily bars (25,122.18 Thu vs 24,442.94 Wed). GDP and core-PCE actuals, the Microsoft and Meta results, the Amazon and Apple after-close reactions, and the bear-steepener framing are drawn from Financial Modeling Prep general-news wires (WSJ, Reuters, MarketWatch) and the economics-calendar, dated 7/30 to 7/31; Bigdata.com was not called on this daily run. YTD percentages recomputed fresh against 2026-01-02 opening prices. Economic-calendar release times for Friday (ECI 8:30am, Chicago PMI 9:45am) and the 8/7 payrolls date are conventional and were confirmed against the FMP economics-calendar feed where dated.
Disclaimer: The Daily Update is an independent financial publication produced for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this issue constitutes personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a solicitation of any kind. The editor and affiliated parties may or may not hold positions in securities mentioned; no such positions are currently disclosed and none are known as of publication. Momentum verdicts (CCI-based GREEN/YELLOW/RED readings) are technical indicators derived from historical price data and carry no predictive guarantee. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Data is sourced from Massive Market Data, Financial Modeling Prep, and named third-party outlets; while believed reliable, accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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